CEPH | Stock Discussion Forums

Sponsor

To: IN_GOD_I_TRUST who wrote (372)	5/28/1997 10:25:00 PM
From: WeirdPro Randy	of 998

Steve, I disagree ( would you expect anything else from me?). The advisory committee meeting and the approval of myotrophin are two related, but separate things. The company is primarily betting on the approval of myotrophin with their options play, but the disparity lies in their choice of time frame for their options "bet". If they were solely betting on the outcome of the advisory meeting, they would have been best to purchase May calls. Since they knew in advance of the meeting that a final decision on myotrophin would be made before August expiration, they would have purchased August calls if betting on FDA approval of myotrophin was their only objective. Instead they pay more for the November options, and it would seem to me they have further reasonings to want that time frame for stock appreciation other than the FDA and myotrophin, including European myotrophin approval and modafinil. Also they had to purchase these options prior to the advisory meeting so they would have them in hand in the event of a positive outcome to the meeting, which would have created a major appreciation in stock and option value. In this scenario, they would have missed out on their chance to obtain the capital gain they are looking for if they had waited until after the meeting to purchase options.

CEPH \| Stock Discussion ForumsShare	Recommend \| Keep \| Reply \| Mark as Last Read

To: WeirdPro Randy who wrote (373)	5/28/1997 10:36:00 PM
From: IN_GOD_I_TRUST	of 998

But when would be the stock be at its greater value, right on approval or two months after some profits are sales can be better gauged? I would venture to guess two months later. On top of this they have another drug coming to bat around this time frame with the FDA. If they had a fresh win with Myo and another drug coming around, most would be pretty confident IMO on the second approval, especially because its deemed as a stronger possibilty of getting thru already. However you look at the investment, it was a bone head play. And no matter what the circumstances around the investment, it was perceived as a very cocky way of saying Myo would be approved by advisory board. That was the perception of it regardless of CEPH motivation ... Steve

CEPH \| Stock Discussion ForumsShare	Recommend \| Keep \| Reply \| Mark as Last Read

To: WeirdPro Randy who wrote (375)	5/29/1997 4:54:00 AM
From: Rocketman	of 998

I'll agree on the cocky part of it. It certainly was, and their egos were showing big time. Plenty of companies do stock buy backs, and they kind of fall into the same category as this option play in my mind. I too think that final judgement needs to be reserved until these options either pay off or expire, alot can happen between now and November. Many seem really quick to read CEPH's obituary, but the coroner has not yet pronounced them dead, and the FAT LADY is still waiting in the wings warming up her voice. Also, having been a "BoneHead" at Norian, I take offense at the use of the term in a degrading manner. I realize that's how most would use it, but we were developing replacement bone material, and have always considered it to be an honor to be a BoneHead. In fact, we got a set of through the head bones to wear on our heads (like the arrow through the head), which 16 of us wore at a very highly regarded Silicon Valley restaurant. If you want to insult them, please choose some other term @;->, like BeanHead, or Dumbass, etc...... Once a BoneHead, always a BoneHead! Rocketman

CEPH \| Stock Discussion ForumsShare	Recommend \| Keep \| Reply \| Mark as Last Read