Gold/Mining/Energy | EnCana


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From: Dennis Roth10/26/2007 8:12:57 AM
   of 28
 
EnCana Corp. (ECA): 2007 execution has been strong, but valuation still seems rich - Goldman Sachs - 10/26/07

What's changed

EnCana reported 3Q 2007 adjusted EPS of $1.21, above our and the First Call consensus estimate of $1.12. Total production was 4.4 Bcfe/d versus our estimate of 4.3 Bcfe/d. All-in costs of $4.23 per Mcfe were in line with our estimates. Operating cash flow was $2.2 billion versus our $1.8 billion estimate. Realized natural gas prices were stronger than expected, benefiting from narrower differentials than we anticipated. Refining operating income of $319 million exceeded our estimate of $237 million. We are updating our 2007-2012 EPS estimates to reflect revisions to our assumptions for volumes, realized prices, and costs.

Implications

We believe EnCana’s execution in 2007 has been very strong, with the company exceeding its own guidance in most key areas, including production growth and cost control. In addition, the company’s natural gas hedging program has allowed it to grow volumes in regionally soft markets such as the Rockies unhindered by volatile pricing environments. In the Rockies, the Jonah play has notably outperformed expectations. Still, EnCana shares continue to trade at a substantial premium to other large cap E&Ps that we believe is not justified by the company’s relative returns, growth, and free cash flow. We believe EnCana shares can perform well on an absolute basis given our bullish commodity outlook, but we continue to see better value in other E&Ps at this time.

Valuation

EnCana trades at 7.5X 2008E EV/DACF (7.3X excluding the oil sands business), a substantial premium to the large-cap E&P average of 6.0X. We see 9% upside to our $72 DCF-based 12-month target price for EnCana, versus 20% upside for E&Ps.

Key risks

Key risks to our target price include commodity price volatility, government pronouncements, and drilling results.

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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (23)11/29/2007 4:35:22 PM
From: greatplains_guy   of 28
 
DJ Ecuador's Fin Min: Won´t Accept Future ICSID Jurisdiction

QUITO (Dow Jones)--Ecuador has notified the World Bank's International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes, or ICSID, that it won't accept its jurisdiction as a mediator in future disputes, Foreign Minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa said Thursday.

"The ICSID is an artificial instance of international arbitration. Fifteen days ago, as a sovereign nation, Ecuador_-76_s government notified it that it won't accept its jurisdiction," the foreign minister told reporters at a press conference.

According to Espinosa, this means that ICSID won't be able in the future to resolve conflicts regarding investments or exploitation of nonrenewable resources between Ecuador and private companies.

He said the government's decision isn't retroactive and current processes in arbitration at the ICSID will continue.

The ICSID has been an alternative for oil companies seeking redress in disputes with the Ecuadorian government since the 1980s.

The ICSID is currently handling a request for arbitration over a dispute between Ecuador and U.S.-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY).

The Andean country canceled Occidental's contract on May 15, 2006, accusing the company of violating its terms, particularly in transferring, without proper authorization, a 40% stake to Canada's EnCana Corp. (ECA).

In addition, oil company City Oriente, which does business in Ecuador but is backed by U.S. investors, entered into arbitration with the ICSID in October 2006 over a dispute, saying Ecuador needs to respect its contract terms.

In the past, several other oil companies also have turned to arbitration to seek a solution to their tax disputes, including requests for tax refunds.

-By Mercedes Alvaro, Dow Jones Newswires; 59-39-9728-653; mercedes.alvaro@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 29, 2007 16:29 ET (21:29 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones Company, Inc.

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From: Dennis Roth12/13/2007 5:38:36 AM
   of 28
 
EnCana Corp. (ECA): 2008 budget and gas production guidance in-line with expectations - Goldman Sachs - December 12, 2007

News
EnCana today released its 2008 capital budget and operating guidance.

Analysis
EnCana's 2008 outlook was generally in line with our expectations. Management expects 2008 natural gas production of 3.78 Bcf/d, in line with our estimate of 3.79 Bcf/d. Non-oil sands liquids production is expected to be 98 Mb/d, lower than our estimate of 105 Mb/d. Upstream oil sands production is also lower than expected. As a result, EnCana's total 2008 company production guidance of 4.57 Bcfe/d is below our estimate of 4.75 Bcfe/d. We would note that EnCana plans to divest about $500 million of assets in 2008, some of which are likely to be producing properties. EnCana's capital budget of $6.9 billion is essentially in line with our $7.0 billion forecast. EnCana announced a doubling of its dividend to $1.60 per share for 2008, implying a 2.4% yield versus the current share price. This yield is competitive with super-cap integrated oils, a group with which we believe EnCana would like to be compared for valuation purposes.

Implications
Our target price for EnCana shares is unchanged, though our EPS estimates are under review. Similar to 2007, in which EnCana has outperformed in our view because of very strong execution, we believe management's ability to deliver on its guidance will be the key driver of EnCana shares in 2008. We would note an emerging trend among Canadian heavy oil producers of lower than expected 2008 production volume guidance, which has been the case for Canadian Natural Resources, Nexen, and now also EnCana though for the latter is a less important part of the portfolio. We continue to rate EnCana Sell due to what we believe is a too-high implied E&P valuation for the company's gas business versus other large-cap E&Ps.

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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (25)2/15/2008 9:33:13 AM
From: Dennis Roth   of 28
 
EnCana Corp. (ECA): Production growth on track, though relative valuation expensive - Goldman Sachs - February 15, 2008

What's changed

EnCana reported mixed 4Q2007 operating and financial results. Adjusted EPS was $1.10 versus our estimate of $1.32 and consensus $1.31. Production of 4.5 Bcfe/d was slightly above our estimate of 4.4 Bcfe/d, though unit operating costs were $4.69/Mcfe, above our estimate of $4.38/Mcfe. Operating cash flow was $1.88 billion versus our estimate of $2.05 billion. 2007 drill bit reserve replacement of 227% was in line with our estimate. Natural gas drillbit finding and development costs of $2.40/Mcfe were down from $2.70/Mcfe in 2006, though above $1.76/Mcfe from XTO Energy and $1.91/Mcfe for EOG Resources. We have updated our 2008-2012 estimates.

Implications

EnCana continues to deliver strong production growth at or above guidance, though the uptick in costs in 4Q2007 was greater than expected and seemingly sustainable given the stronger Canadian dollar. We continue to view EnCana shares, adjusted for oil sands, as overvalued relative to other natural gas levered E&Ps. Excluding oil sands, EnCana trades at 6.8X 2008E EV/DACF versus 6.1X on average for large-cap gas levered E&Ps (including APC, CHK, EOG, XTO, and DVN adjusted for oil sands). We believe EnCana’s returns, free cash flow, and growth warrant closer to a peer average multiple and as such we continue to rate the shares Sell. Note that we are bullish on natural gas, have an Attractive coverage view for E&Ps, and believe that EnCana shares can perform well on an absolute, if not a relative, basis.

Valuation

We see 11% upside potential for EnCana shares to our $78 DCF-based 12-month target price versus 19% for large-cap E&Ps.

Key risks

Commodity volatility, cost pressures, and government pronouncements.

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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (26)4/23/2008 8:21:44 AM
From: Dennis Roth1 Recommendation   of 28
 
EnCana Corp. (ECA): Asset base continues to deliver, but we see better value elsewhere - Goldman Sachs - April 23, 2008

What's changed

EnCana reported adjusted 1Q2008 EPS of $1.38, above our estimate of $1.20 and the First Call consensus of $1.31. The better than expected EPS was driven by much higher than expected realized commodity prices. Operating cash flow was $2.3 billion versus our estimate of $2.1 billion. Production was slightly lower than expected while unit operating costs were slightly higher. Refining operating income was $61 million versus our estimate of $100 million. We have updated our 2008-2012 EPS estimates.

Implications

EnCana’s recent trend of exceeding quarterly EPS expectations continued in 1Q2008, though underlying operating performance was generally in line. On the 1Q conference call, management highlighted EnCana’s exposure to emerging resource plays that have garnered significant interest from the Street in recent months, including the Montney and the Horn River, each in Canada. While we view EnCana’s asset base as strong, we continue to believe that other large-cap E&Ps provide less expensive exposure to North America natural gas production growth. For exposure to the Horn River play, we prefer EOG Resources and Apache, and for exposure to the Montney we prefer Talisman Energy.

Valuation

EnCana trades at 6.4X 2009E enterprise value/debt-adjusted cash flow versus 5.4X for large-cap E&Ps. We see 6% upside to our $88 DCF-based 12-month target price for EnCana shares, vs. 11% upside for E&Ps. We continue to rate EnCana Sell relative to an Attractive coverage view. We believe the shares can continue to perform well on an absolute basis given our bullish commodity outlook, but the relative valuation and risk/reward in our Neutral and Buy rated stocks is more favorable, in our view.

Key risks

Commodity price volatility, cost pressures, drilling results, and government pronouncements are key risks to our view and target price.

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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (27)5/13/2008 6:38:36 AM
From: Dennis Roth   of 28
 
EnCana Corp. (ECA): Split-up to test our own vs. management's sum-of-parts view - Goldman Sachs - May 12, 2008

What's changed

EnCana announced that it plans to split into two separate companies, one to focus on unconventional natural gas and the other to be an integrated oil/natural gas company. The former company will comprise most of EnCana’s high growth unconventional resource plays, while the integrated oil will consist of the company’s oil sands, refining, shallow gas and various other, mostly oil weighted, Canadian upstream assets.

Implications

We rate EnCana Sell relative to an Attractive coverage view – we are quite bullish on E&P stocks given our well above consensus oil and natural gas forecasts, although we see less upside for EnCana than for other E&Ps. Our Sell rating on EnCana has reflected our view that the company’s valuation appears closer to the sum of the parts than obviously is the view of management in proceeding with this transaction. While we remain Sell rated, this transaction will provide the Street with an opportunity over the next eight months to revisit its views on EnCana's valuation – and ultimately reach a verdict – as the deal is effected. In this regard, we view the transaction positively, as we recognize that it is, in general, easier in the present market to receive premium valuations as a pure-play versus a diversified company – something we do not see changing as long as resource scarcity and growth visibility continue to be key issues for investors.

Valuation

There is 12% potential upside to our unchanged $95 12-month, DCF-based target price for EnCana versus 24% upside for E&Ps.

Key risks

Key risks to our target price include commodity price volatility, cost pressures, drilling results and government pronouncements.

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