Technology Stocks | Simple Technology - STEC


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To: Rudy who started this subject3/26/2002 8:33:23 AM
From: Rudy   of 36
 
After last few days of trading I checked the daily chart once again. The earlier pattern forming was a symmetrical triangle with an unpredictable nature. But now I can tell last 7 days action created an ascending triangle which tends to breakout to upside. 8.20 or 8.25 seems to be the upper edge that needs to be broken. Volume shrinkage testifies for this consolidation. We are also riding the bottom edge of the uptrend channel. Oscillators are at neutral. I think we will see an upside breakout soon.

for chart:

stockcharts.com  ][iUb14!Lh14,3]&pref=G

Good luck.

Rudy.

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To: Rudy who started this subject4/1/2002 8:04:23 PM
From: Rudy   of 36
 
STEC has been creeping up the last few days but the volume has not confirmed a buying interest yet. Seasoned traders know and suggest to take positions in short bar days. Meaning that the daily fluctuations are at a minimum. STEC has been trading at a very compressed stage with very short daily bars. I think this is a good time for entry, re-entry, or adding positions. This stock acts like it will take off soon again. My guess is that the next stop will be above $10 mark.

Rudy.

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To: Rudy who started this subject4/2/2002 10:22:01 AM
From: Rudy   of 36
 
SimpleTech Revises March Quarter Guidance Upwards

SANTA ANA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 2, 2002--SimpleTech Inc. (Nasdaq:STEC - news) today revised its March quarter FY02 guidance. There will be no conference call accompanying this announcement. The new guidance is as follows:

Revenues are expected to be up approximately 30% sequentially primarily due to the continued firming of DRAM prices during the quarter. The prior guidance given on January 31, 2002, was for 10 to 15% sequential revenue growth. DRAM contract and spot prices have approximately quadrupled since November 2000 due in part to consolidation in the DRAM industry.
Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be approximately four to five cents, excluding acquisition and on-going expenses related to the Company's January 2002 acquisition of the assets of Irvine Networks. The prior EPS guidance was for three to four cents, excluding the acquisition and on-going expenses. On-going expenses related to acquisition are expected to be approximately two to three cents per diluted share in the first quarter. Non-recurring charges related to the acquisition purchase cost are pending the completion of an independent third-party valuation.
Both our Commercial and Industrial Divisions are expected to show sequential revenue growth.
The Company believes that memory and storage demand may increase within the upcoming four quarters as corporations and government entities upgrade outdated equipment purchased during 1999 to ensure compatibility with Y2K issues.
SimpleTech, Inc. is a technology solutions provider offering products based on DRAM, SRAM and Flash memory technologies. Headquartered in Santa Ana, Calif., the company is a leader in the design, development, manufacturing and marketing of custom and standard memory solutions. For information, visit the Company's web site at www.simpletech.com.

This release may contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from the results predicted. Important factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements are detailed under ``Risk Factors'' in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission made from time to time by SimpleTech, including its annual reports on Form 10-K, its quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and its current reports on Form 8-K. Other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements include the risks that future component pricing for DRAM and Flash and associated SimpleTech product prices are subject to significant fluctuations, we may not be successful in generating new or continued sales with current and past customers, and a continued downturn in the global economy, including the semiconductor industry, may force our customers to delay or cancel purchasing decisions affecting our products. SimpleTech undertakes no obligation to release publicly any revisions to any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date hereof.

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To: Rudy who started this subject4/2/2002 10:24:49 AM
From: Rudy   of 36
 
STEC at new 52Wk High!. Trading over $9. Volume is quite high, 188K as of 10:30AM. Bucking the Nasdaq trend with strong buying interest. STEC's uptrend continues. Congrats to all patient holders.

Rudy.

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To: Rudy who started this subject4/2/2002 12:30:45 PM
From: Rudy   of 36
 
We've just seen another continuation gap with high volume. (PS: Prices need to reach new highs for several days after the gap. Otherwise it could be an exhaustion gap.)

Now, here's the scoop. Common trading experience calls "prices will go as much farther beyond the gap as they already have gone between the beginning of the move and the gap, as measured directly (and vertically) on the chart." There could be different opinions about the starting point of this longterm trend. A very conservative call can be around $3 as the start point. (More likey around $2). In other words, this trend came from $3 to about $8.5 and gapped. It took 4 months. An estimate for the move from this gap would be from $8.5 to 14 in the next 4 months. Please remember that these are all statistical estimates. They are no better than weather reports :) So take all this with a grain of salt.

Now, today's volume: I count about 15 orders of 5K or more, of which, 6 are 10K+. Good buying interest from deep pockets. Feels good. My 20% addition at 7.40 looks better each day.

Take care guys and enjoy the ride,

Rudy.

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To: Rudy who started this subject4/3/2002 8:19:40 PM
From: Rudy   of 36
 
When looked from TA perspective:

1. Today's volume gives us a big clue. We had early day selling by profit takers and new short positions. I think before today, short interest was at minimum after the last run up. 267K shares changed hands and STEC lost .78. Yesterday we were up a whole buck on 408K volume. Net change and net volume are bullish. within 2 days net 141K were traded on the BUY side! With the decreasing volume the trend did NOT get a strike today. Whereas during the previous 10 days we had 4 (+) days when trading volume and price increased at the same time compared to previous day.

2. Second important fact is that the gap has NOT been closed. Today's low was 8.61 while gap's bottom was 8.56. This is how much strength bears could show today. They were not able to close the gap! Important technical sign. We'll see if they have strenght to try it tomorrow. I think much of the blood letting and shorting is done today. It is very healthy to shake the weak hands time to time. It is like trimming the dead ends of a rose tree.

3. Todays daily chart revealed good support at 8.75. It has been tested well during the day action.

4. When looked at the last 10 days, 1,041K traded on up days and 575K traded on down days. So onbalance volume is healthy. We had 466K net buying.

5. Technically there is strong support at 8 provided by the previous consolidation period.

6. Trendline has not been violated. Bottom edge of the trendline is roughly at 8.50. That also provides good support.

From what I can see, the trend is intact and today's pullback with lower volume!!! provided a new chance for adding or taking new positions. I do not care about how over or under valued the company is, whose running it, or even what they do. Chart does not lie. Tomorrow bears may comeback with vengeance and break the trend but until then bulls are still on the driving seat.

Good luck all,

Rudy

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To: Rudy who started this subject4/4/2002 1:02:43 AM
From: Rudy   of 36
 
Target price raised to $11.

One analyst raised his target to $11 from $10.

biz.yahoo.com 

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To: Rudy who started this subject4/8/2002 4:08:22 PM
From: Rudy   of 36
 
Nice tail formed today. Very similar to the one formed on the 4th day of February. This tail tells me that we formed the local bottom here and next move will top the previous high.

Other facts are: Support at 8 is tested and held well. Trendline is also held. Pro's (big money) who trade towards the end of the day (and the week) showed great interest with large buy orders.

Congrats to all who held on through this shake and also to who took positions toward the bottom of the spike. Trend is intact. As long as it is healthy, I will not fight it. I will flow with it.

Rudy.

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To: Rudy who started this subject4/8/2002 4:54:20 PM
From: Rudy   of 36
 
Volume stats for the last 10 days:

1. 1,765K traded, average 176K/day.
2. 1,286K traded on up days, 479K traded on down days. A typical consolidation.
3. 5 times in last 10 days, price increased on increasing volume.
4. Not one time, price fell on increasing volume.

Volume says "STEC is in good shape."

Good luck all.

Rudy.

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To: Rudy who started this subject4/10/2002 7:30:00 PM
From: Rudy   of 36
 
Cheers to new 52 week high!!!

Double digit land is in sight finally. Even 50 DMA hit 7.0! Contrary to many of you, I think today's volume wasn't that bad. We made a new 52wk high on above average volume. RSI isn't oversold yet. There is lot's of room up. Unless the chart is building a wedge pattern, upper edge of the trend channel provides room for growth. I am expecting to see 11 or 11.5+ before re-consolidating. That tail spin from 8 was perfect, wasn't it? I love this chart. 8.25 to 8.5 were perfect entry points. Hope some new comers took adventage of that. Only minor glitch I can see is that the trendline that connects On Balance Volume indicator's peaks. That line's slope flattened a little on daily chart. Looking at the weekly chart, I see nothing but a great example of an gorgeous uptrend! We must be close to test all time high (number?) soon.

Cheers again and continued success to all,

Rudy.

PS: I have never bought at the very bottom or sold at the very top. :)

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