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To: Clappy who wrote (1)2/25/2002 12:42:32 PM
From: Clappy
   of 25
 
Possible double bottom in the weekly chart of the
Tokyo Nikkei Average.

stockcharts.com 

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To: Clappy who started this subject2/27/2002 11:04:27 AM
From: Clappy
   of 25
 
Another new short term high this morning.

stockcharts.com 

I wonder if it can stay above the 50DMA...

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To: Clappy who wrote (3)3/4/2002 5:59:14 PM
From: Mannie
   of 25
 
Hey Clappy..

Japan has severely cut back on short sellers. I think this rally is short covering. Not allowing short sellers seems as if it will cut back on liquidity in their market, and they certainly will not see market drops moderated by short covering......I think this is very bad for their market. They are being short sighted again, avoiding the true problems that exist in their markets and putting off again their day of reckoning.....and again intensifying the effects on their economy.

Whacha think?
Scott

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To: Mannie who wrote (4)3/4/2002 6:09:47 PM
From: Clappy
   of 25
 
Thanks for bringing it up Scott.

I hadn't heard.

I'm just basing this trade on TA.

You are probably right about them putting off their day
of reckoning.

Eventually, this market along with ours will probably see
incredible pain.
Until then I have to try to play these corrections and gradually add to my precious metals...

-Clappy

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To: Clappy who wrote (5)3/4/2002 7:18:56 PM
From: Mannie
   of 25
 
Claps..

Did you follow up on OIH? It has gained consistently for the last couple of weeks, might be ready for a rest, but who knows...oil is cheap and a crisis may be brewing in the Mideast. I want to see how OIH performs when the market gives back it's it's current rally.

Congrats on your 20%er.

Scott

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To: Mannie who wrote (6)3/4/2002 7:32:23 PM
From: Clappy
   of 25
 
HAL was my energy play.
I just sold it at the end of last week.

I felt guilty holding it too long even though it was just a trade.
Being the thick headed, hot tempered stooge that I am, after my argument about drilling in Alaska I had become sickened with energy companies...

I know it's silly.
I may re-enter after a pullback once again for a trade.

I still think this tech rally may have legs.
Tech tends to lead after the end of a recession.
(if that is what we are actually seeing...)

-Clappy

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To: Clappy who wrote (7)3/5/2002 12:03:34 AM
From: Mannie
   of 25
 
"Being the thick headed, hot tempered stooge that I am, after my argument about drilling in Alaska I had become sickened with energy
companies..."

I had those thoughts. I rationalize it by seeing it as playing an obvious scenario that we will watch play out. Oil is going to become a very rare substance over the rest of our lives. I have become fond of that upward bias. I'm seeing it's value, I am still quite unsure about other valuations in the market.

You really think techs can continue to run? Maybe, They just still look way overvalued to me. Accounting practices will be reined in, making values even higher. Maybe I have become to negative, but that is what I'm seeing. I think tech will have a heck of a time for quite a while. The companies will do great, just I think the stocks will have trouble.

Japan will implode at some point. That will be a huge shot to us. I still see a lot of risk...I don't know where all of the new spending will come from. Lots of people bought vehicles at 0% last 3 months...who's going to buy now?

Scott

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To: Mannie who wrote (8)3/5/2002 5:57:38 AM
From: Clappy
   of 25
 
I think you are right on.

I'm talking about much smaller time frames.

Tech seems to have broken upward at the right time.
Chart chasers and fund managers will see these lines being drawn that look like the time to buy.

If we come out of this recession, I'm not certain it will last for long. 6 months, a year, more? Who knows.

My trades are based upon the typical sector rotation of the various stages of the economy.
At the bottom of the cycle when we are in full blown recession, is when cyclicals normally do best. If you look at that group they have been the perhaps the best performing sector as of late.
Next in line is tech.

Perhaps we are seeing it rally now because of the better than expected fed numbers.

It's happening at the right time.
Nasdaq is possibly setting a higher low.
As is EWJ and the $NIKK.

It may be short lived but worth riding in my opinion.

Eventually this house of cards will probably fall.
I hope to be prepared for it.
It will probably happen just when things really begin to look good and more of the public becomes believers again...

Tech powered up through it's 50DMA with strong, increasing volume. That tells me the institutions might be buying this.

-Clappy

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To: Mannie who wrote (8)3/7/2002 10:12:07 AM
From: Clappy
   of 25
 
I exited my EWJ trade this morning at $8.55 (Got in at $7.5)
I was tempted to see it go a bit higher but decided to wait for it to pull back to re-enter. I may jump back on if it dips to $7.80ish & $7.65 next week.

-Clapper

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To: Clappy who wrote (10)3/7/2002 10:25:26 AM
From: Mannie
   of 25
 
Good job, Clappy..
Man, that OIH has just run like crazy this week, wish wasn't completely covered on it. But I will have done well. It will be interesting trying to determine a re-entry point.

Scott

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