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To: da_cheif™ who started this subject3/21/2004 2:00:12 PM
From: dospesos
   of 112386
 
the gif file is an update of my table or log of daily sentiment indicators. i have disclosed a few of these over the years or talked about them: the 2CS which is the five day sum of VXO*the combined p/c ratio reported by CBOE, and 2SO which is the one day oscillator of all sentiment indicators.

approach this as a no-brainer. just look at each column (each a separate indicator) and see how this past week's (3/16) low compared with prior lows and highs.

the 2SO made a low not seen since 3/12/03....LOL

also the 2CS and T(mania2) were like readings at the 3/03 low.

cheers!

ttrader.com

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To: robert b furman who wrote (14136)3/21/2004 2:22:56 PM
From: Runomo™
   of 112386
 
Tanks bro, and those divergences remain intact despite the severity of Friday's decline...

In retrospect, the VXN flashed a red flag for the Naz especially by the end of January when it reversed from a 52 week low to close positive for that month with a long tailed monthly hammer candlestick(the strongest type)...

stockcharts.com[h,a]macannay[dd][p]&pref=G


What's more interesting is that should the month of March end today, the VXN is in a classic three month buy wiggle...fortunately, we have eight trading days left in the month of March and I suspect the VXN monthly candle will morph by the end of the month to a long tailed hammer upside down or a shooting star candle...

My best read for next week is that it's going to be a reversal week for the markets, but not before a follow thru to the selling from last week in the first half of next week and then hopefully a reversal later in the second half after a final good scare...Note that the sox is at it's 200 day sma already and slightly below the 200 day ema! .... while the Naz still has some catching up to do...I am thinking the Sox should begin to outperform the market soon after a quick dip here....the Naz although looking very weak at the moment,has some solid support right below...here is the 200 week ema at 1912 and the 50 month ema at 1913...and the 200 day is at 1883...In addition there are some important internal trendlines from 2001 and 2002 that intersect at around these levels....moreover, all those moving averages, the daily and the weekly and the monthly will be tested as they are rising for the first time since the start of the bear market suggesting sufficient technical repair has already taken place...while the VXN and VIX are fighting a strong downtrend augmented by falling 200 day moving averages with a typical bear market spike rallies....cheers,

stockcharts.com[w,a]weclyiay[dd][pc200][vc60]&pref=G

stockcharts.com[w,a]meclyiay[df][pc50][vc60]&pref=G


Mo

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To: dospesos who wrote (14167)3/21/2004 2:40:12 PM
From: Runomo™
   of 112386
 
Very interesting Tom and thanks for sharing here,

Mo

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To: dospesos who wrote (14167)3/21/2004 3:45:54 PM
From: Kirk ©
   of 112386
 
I did a short study of the put/call ratio and the 10 day moving average of the P/C. I believe a A Major Bottom is Possibly Brewing. I posted the charts and tables here
suite101.com

Ideally, we get a big purge in a week or two ahead to meet past patterns.

What is interesting is this also fits Zeev's roadmap
wecus.de
which shows a major bottom before April!

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (14165)3/21/2004 4:39:32 PM
From: Rich1
   of 112386
 
i Agree only question is when he gets caught and if its Dead or Alive...

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To: Rich1 who wrote (14171)3/21/2004 4:42:18 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™
   of 112386
 
Probably alive, and about three weeks before the elections...<g>

GZ

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To: Kirk © who wrote (14170)3/21/2004 6:24:59 PM
From: Runomo™
   of 112386
 
Good work Kirk....and that Zeev roadmap was right on the money!

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To: Runomo™ who wrote (14173)3/21/2004 6:28:43 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor
   of 112386
 
Hopefully Zeev is wrong about the end of the year....

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (14172)3/21/2004 6:55:20 PM
From: Rich1
   of 112386
 
That makes sense...LOL..

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To: Kirk © who wrote (14170)3/21/2004 9:40:25 PM
From: dospesos
   of 112386
 
kirk, that's good stuff that would fit the scenario i have for a low next week and then a high in mid june. i posted the chart in early february. (in this type of work, early turns are more bullish.)

ttrader.com

personally i "think" sentiment is already at a buy point and the SP futures commercials are scooping up the longs from the AAII folk and the other scared ones. you never want to wait too long to buy in bull market corrections.

friday's low was a DW 78.6% correction of last week's low to high range. we see......:)

jeez i remember zeev from the gold wars at kitco and SI from 1996-98....lol

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