Strategies & Market TrendsThe Financial Collapse of 2001 and Beyond

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (89636)4/29/2012 9:33:32 PM
From: orkrious
2 Recommendations   of 119756
Hugh Hendry, in a must read letter, thinks China is toast

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To: orkrious who wrote (89638)4/29/2012 10:58:03 PM
From: TobagoJack
1 Recommendation   of 119756
I am certain that 1.odd billion folks w/ savings, equity, and full of hope, just getting under way, shall not fall down tomorrow and even if falls, forget to get up, and stop producing, consuming, educating, learning, and saving.

Hendry does not understand or forgot, that china collapsed, and is bottoming. China once was and shall again be at 30+% of global GDP.

The ideas that china would fall because somehow, whether by global equalization of wages / productivity, or by planetary leveling of energy ramp, or free energy in USA are all suspect ideas for all the obvious reasons and many unintended consequence.

The ideas that china shall fall because of fiat money inflation or debt load or growing old before rich are equally if not more suspect for all the obvious reasons.

Then there is always the fallback / backstop, something about the banking system, which is truly funny as the banking system is mostly just a conduit and not stuffed full of derivatives. In truth no derivatives at all other than fiat money.

What Hendry wrote could have and had been written many times over the past 30 years, but alas, still waiting.

As to the Chinese stock market, given that folks are in at the 10% level, close enough for government work, the market index can go to zero and would not mean much.

The equity cult is a curse, but as far as china n European mainland are concerned, the cult has a minuscule following.

Am singularly unconcerned about china macro, because it is secular up and cyclical anything that has no particular meaning beyond a few months hiccup.

I shall read Hendry (I actually enjoy his writing style n content, for the joy and reflection) tonight.

Cheers, tj

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To: 2MAR$ who wrote (89625)4/29/2012 11:04:15 PM
From: TobagoJack
   of 119756
This should be fun to watch over the elapsed time

Titanic II to Be Built by Billionaire Palmer, Chinese Yard
By Elisabeth Behrmann - Apr 30, 2012 8:46 AM GMT+0800

Australian billionaire Clive Palmer plans to build a 21st-century version of the Titanic with the help of a Chinese shipyard, with the cruise ship’s maiden voyage from England to North America scheduled in late 2016.

Palmer said he had invited the Chinese navy to escort Titanic II on its maiden voyage to New York, according to an e- mailed statement. The initial pact with China’s CSC Jinling Shipyard also includes plans for a fleet of luxury liners.

Enlarge image
The Titanic sits under scaffolding in the spring of 1911 in this photo made available to the media by the Library of Congress. Source: Library of Congress (George Grantham Bain Collection) via Bloomberg

Audio Download: Dr. Ballard Describes Discovering Sunken Titanic

Enlarge image
Clive Palmer, chairman of Mineralogy Pty. Photographer: Patrick Hamilton/Bloomberg

The original Titanic sank after hitting an iceberg in the Atlantic on April 15, 1912, costing the lives of 1,514 passengers and crew, according to the statement. Mining magnate Palmer, 58, has a fortune of A$5.05 billion ($5.3 billion) and was Australia’s fifth-richest person, according to BRW magazine estimates in May.

“It will be every bit as luxurious as the original Titanic but of course it will have state-of-the-art 21st century technology and the latest navigation and safety systems,” Palmer said. “The Chinese ship building industry with our assistance wants to be a major player in this market.”

The Titanic, commissioned by White Star Line, was the largest liner in the world when built at just under 270 meters (886 feet) and 53 meters high.

Palmer is developing coal and iron ore mines in Australia, including the $8 billion China First coal project in Queensland state. Last year, he dropped plans to sell shares in his company Resourcehouse Ltd. in Hong Kong after commodities prices fell.

To contact the reporter on this story: Elisabeth Behrmann in Sydney at

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From: 2MAR$4/30/2012 3:15:24 AM
   of 119756
Apple Reacts To NYTimes Tax Accusations

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To: 2MAR$ who wrote (89641)4/30/2012 4:00:09 AM
From: TobagoJack
   of 119756
Wonder what the tax rate of nyt is? And its shareholders?

Apple should (i) thoroughly probe Washington post, nyt, and iht, and for good measure, check out times, Bloomberg, and fox tv news corp, and

(ii) apple should have the link to the investigation sent to all apple apps that serve up those media entities, and

(iii) apple should offer up reward for whistle blowers w/i those media organization, and

Lots of other ideas

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To: KyrosL who wrote (89628)4/30/2012 6:16:05 AM
From: Snowshoe
   of 119756
>>OT Do you have an opinion about Alaska Communications (ALSK) as a company?<<

I'm a former ALSK customer, but I switched over to GNCMA years ago. Plenty of competition here in the telecom space, and ALSK dropped after cutting the dividend. Might be a potential buyout candidate with the current low valuation.

The only Alaska stock I own is my local bank, NRIM. It was a great buy in the 2008/2009 financial collapse, because the economy here remained relatively strong.

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To: orkrious who wrote (89638)4/30/2012 6:39:32 AM
From: TobagoJack
   of 119756
As I had mentioned enough times, my gold is a china play, as well as a hedge for all other china plays

From some report named "on target"

"... A J-Curve Forecast for Gold

The price of gold is not likely to fall far, or for too long, says Daily Telegraph commentator Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, even though “it has reached a half- century high against a basket of indicators – equities, Treasuries, homes, workers’ pay.”

The root cause of the troubles of the world economy remains – “the deformed structure of globalization, with a $10 trillion reserve accumulation by the emerging powers, and an investment boom in manufacturing to flood Western markets, disguised by debt bubbles in the Anglo-sphere and Club Med.”

Indeed, in some respects things are worse.

Consumer demand is an even smaller proportion of the Chinese economy, having shrunk to 37 per cent of GDP compared to 48 per cent a decade ago.

“The mercantilists (chiefly China and Germany) are still holding on to trade surpluses through rigged currencies... exerting a contractionary bias on the deficit states.”

There is still over-supply in the global economy, as there was in the Great Depression years.

If the central banks keep printing money, the Asian surplus powers, as well as Russia and the Gulf states, will have to find somewhere to park their growing foreign reserves. Those countries won’t want to accumulate more of the deficit countries’ paper promises.

Russia is raising the gold share of its reserves to 10 per cent. China is known to be considering acquiring large gold reserves to boost its currency, the renminbi, as an international rival to the dollar.

Sasha Opel of Orsus Consult expects Beijing to boost its holdings by “several thousand tons” over the next five years to match America’s 8,000 and the Eurozone’s 11,000.

HSBC’s James Steel says $1,450 is a natural floor for the gold price as that is now the marginal cost of mining additional metal, and “peak gold” is a closer reality than “peak oil.” World output has been stuck for a decade at around 2,700 tons a year, despite a fourfold increase in investment. No great find – another Witwatersrand – is in prospect.

The consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS reckons the immediate outlook for gold is a “rough patch” taking prices below $1,600.

Then several factors could rekindle investment interest in the yellow metal such as the debt crisis in the Eurozone, looser policy from the US central bank such as money printing ahead of the November presidential election, a let-up in China’s tighter-money policy, a jump in oil prices raising fears of runaway inflation.

Together, such factors could trigger a fresh wave of interest in gold, boosting investment demand to nearly 2,000 tons, worth more than $100 billion, surpassing the 2009 record of 1,922 tons, and taking prices to a new record above $2,000 in the next 12 months ..."

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To: Snowshoe who wrote (89643)4/30/2012 8:34:40 AM
From: KyrosL
   of 119756
Thanks. I have been dabbling in dogs that pay high dividends lately with some success. Bought and sold SVU. Bought FTR, sold some, keeping some. Now looking at ALSK. Management is poor, but dividend, 8% at current levels, is very well covered by free cash flow, and it's a good fit for Verizon, which is about to invade Alaska.

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To: average joe who wrote (89634)4/30/2012 9:35:46 AM
From: The Jack of Hearts
   of 119756
My experience is that it is not as good as advertised.. but sure a lot better than many places..

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To: orkrious who wrote (89638)4/30/2012 9:41:03 AM
From: Snowshoe
   of 119756
Always fun to read Hendry! Given that banana graphic he must be a Velvet Underground fan... :o)

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