Strategies & Market Trends | The Financial Collapse of 2001 and Beyond


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To: orkrious who wrote (89329)4/29/2012 7:44:16 PM
From: TobagoJack   of 100764
 
follow-up note bo, about 17-20 years ago my brother had a run-in / problem in dalian with folks who turned out to be thuggish, refusing to complete payment for industrial goods delivered, wanted refund of the downpayment, and got rough w/ brother by slapping him.

brother got out of dodge, wrote a letter to bo xilai, a simple note of self intro and case detailing.

normally one would expect such a letter to fall through the cracks and nothing done.

w/i a week the thugs visited my brother's office in beijing and offered cash payment for the goods plus compensation for troubles, and sincere (almost pleading) written as well as verbal apology.

it was at once funny and better than any movie could have been, and certainly much more efficient than any common judiciary system could manage.

on the other hand, the legal system in hong kong can offer much satisfaction as long as all the i's and t's are dotted and crossed, respectively.

so, i/r/t rule of man vs law, depends on the man and at what stage of life, and depends on the law and at what stage of evolution / devolution. the thing about rule of man is that the man has opposition most of the way unless totally wiped out per non-tea-party style of cleansing revolution. the thing about law is that once devolution gets under way, hard to fix because all the prospective rulers benefits from the devolving system.

am unsure, but am willing to learn, and suspect much learning ahead.

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To: The Jack of Hearts who wrote (89601)4/29/2012 8:59:17 PM
From: ponokee   of 100764
 
Canadian lands in hot water helping others...

E-mails key to Mexican case in Gadhafi, SNC-Lavalin scandal

TIMOTHY WILSON From Wednesday's Globe and Mail (includes correction)
Published Tuesday, Apr. 17, 2012 10:54PM EDT
Last updated Saturday, Apr. 21, 2012 9:50AM EDT

It is a globe-spanning scandal involving a son of a dead dictator, a respected Montreal engineering firm and a Canadian prisoner in a Mexican jail, accused of organizing a multimillion-dollar scheme that prosecutors now claim was plotted out in e-mail exchanges.

Cynthia Vanier, a 52-year-old conflict mediator from Mount Forest, Ont., is charged by Mexican prosecutors with document forgery, human smuggling and being a member of a criminal organization. The summary of evidence against her, a copy of which was supplied by her defence team, shows the prosecution is building its case on allegedly incriminating e-mails – which could become an issue, as it was supplied by the Internet activist group Anonymous.

More related to this story The e-mails in the case summary trace exchanges between people accused of plotting to fly Saadi Gadhafi, jet-setting son of the late Libyan dictator Moammar, out of the reach of justice and into an assumed identity in Mexico. Ms. Vanier has protested her innocence of the allegations in a previous interview with The Globe and Mail.

The case summary also identifies Canadian engineering giant SNC-Lavalin, which contracted Ms. Vanier to conduct a fact-finding mission to Libya in 2011, as a financial supporter of the alleged plot.

The day after Ms. Vanier’s arrest, former SNC-Lavalin executive Stephane Roy was detained by police in Mexico City and then released. Mr. Roy, his boss Riadh Ben Aissa and SNC-Lavalin’s CEO, Pierre Duhaime, have since departed the company, which is trying to trace $56-million in improper payments. The RCMP has raided the company’s Montreal headquarters.

Mexican authorities believe that Ms. Vanier and her accomplices were to conduct an emergency “extraction” of Mr. Gadhafi and his family, flying them via private aircraft from North Africa to Mexico. Once in Mexico, the Gadhafis were to be given false identities, and kept in close protection at the high-end St. Regis hotel and condominium complex in Mexico City.

Ms. Vanier has stated that references to “extraction” in her aircraft-leasing contract were precautionary measures common to her work in dangerous zones. Her legal team further argues that the evidence presented against her is illegitimate, as much of it comes from Anonymous and cannot be traced.

The prosecution believes that forged documents, which included a Mexican passport and a Mexican voting card, were used by Ms. Vanier to facilitate illegal financial activity, notably to open bank accounts that would allegedly provide for the Gadhafis’ future in Mexico.

In order to acquire the documents, Ms. Vanier, who does not speak Spanish, allegedly relied on her co-accused, Gabriela “Gabby” de Cueto, a Mexican-American with residences in both San Diego and Mexico City, who then turned to a professional document forger.

These documents included the alteration of Ms. Vanier’s identity from her legal name, Cynthia Ann Vanier, to Cinthia Anne Macdonald Grau, as well as new identities for all four members of the Gadhafi family.

In an e-mail dated Aug. 26, 2011, which Ms. Vanier sent to Ms. de Cueto from her e-mail address at her company, Vanier Consulting, Ms. Vanier allegedly referenced the need for proof that the identity changes were occurring.

“Is there anything that you can send me to show that the changes in identity are in process?” the e-mail says, adding that proof is required before her client can secure payment. “This amount comes from somewhere else and I’m stuck in the middle! It is very difficult to explain to people who don’t do this type of rescue work, because the payments are required within a tight time frame, and normally in advance.”

The Mexican Attorney-General’s office argues that up until Ms. Vanier’s arrest on Nov. 10 the plan was to bring Saadi Gadhafi and his family to the St. Regis hotel in Mexico City, where they would stay for 90 days before being relocated to a permanent residence in a secure location.

To support the theory, the evidence summary includes an e-mail from Gregory Gillispie of the San Diego-based aircraft leasing firm GG Global Holdings, who along with Ms. de Cueto arranged the aircraft for Ms. Vanier’s fact-finding mission to Libya in July, 2011.

In the e-mail, Mr. Gillispie allegedly tells his friend and business partner Michael Boffo that big money was to be made providing close protection at the St. Regis.

“I gave the second proposal to Cyndy for a security group of eight men to provide protection for a family of four to be located in Mexico City,” allegedly writes Mr. Gillispie, a former U.S. Marine who also owned a security firm named Veritas Worldwide Security. “The family will stay in residence at the St. Regis hotel 95% of the time.”

The e-mail goes on to say that it will be “easy money,” and that if all goes according to plan it could be a permanent business.

“I told Cyndy that we are not doing anything until she deposited 100% of the $2,000,000 in advance,” the e-mail says. “Gabby is preparing another proposal for services we can provide, and for that Cyndy has committed another $3,000,000.”

Mr. Gillispie has told The Globe that his e-mail account was hacked, and two e-mails were blended. “They’ve taken part of the one of my e-mails where I am discussing with Michael the requirements for our potential client … who is an official in the Mexican government, and my e-mail to him describing the outcome of our meeting with Cyndy Vanier,” said Mr. Gillispie.

Another pillar of the prosecution’s case is Ms. Vanier’s role in financing the alleged plot. Mexican officials lay out a case that involves multiple sponsors, but Ms. Vanier only acknowledges SNC-Lavalin as a client.

“The contract for the work done by Cyndy was between her company and SNC-Lavalin,” Ms. Vanier’s Mexican lawyer, Noel Almanza Mundo, said in a phone interview. “No third party could have contributed economic resources.”

The validity of the e-mail presented by the prosecution is also being questioned by Vanier’s defence team, because they originated from Anonymous.

Under Mexican law, such evidence has to come from a known individual. If not, it can be appealed, and determined to be inadmissible in court.

“If you cannot prove who sent the e-mail, then you cannot certify the evidence,” says Mr. Almanza Mundo. “This is all speculation.”

Mr. Almanza Mundo has also challenged the credibility the prosecutor’s star witness, Christian Esquino Nuñez, whose services Mr. Gillispie and Ms. de Cueto used to supply jet aircraft for Ms. Vanier’s work for SNC-Lavalin.

Mr. Esquino Nuñez has told the Mexican authorities that he overheard Mr. Gillispie and Ms. de Cueto discussing the plot.

However, Esquino Nuñez has a criminal record in the U.S, having been imprisoned for conspiracy to commit fraud with an aircraft, and is now in jail in Mexico, where he is being held on an outstanding arrest warrant, purportedly also for aircraft fraud.

Ms. Vanier’s defence team is essentially suggesting that Mr. Esquino Nuñez might have cut a deal with the Mexican Attorney-General’s office, offering Ms. Vanier and her alleged co-conspirators as a bigger prize.

Who is who:

Cynthia Vanier: Canadian mediator accused of leading a plot to allegedly spirit Saadi Gadhafi and his family out of Libya to Mexico. Currently in prison in Mexico fighting criminal charges.

Gregory Gillispie: A former U.S. Marine, runs GG Global Holdings, a San Diego company that arranged planes for the alleged rescue plot. Not facing charges.

Gabriela de Cueto: Mexican partner of Mr. Gillispie arrested in Mexico over the alleged plot.

Pierre Christian Flensborg: Danish national, also arrested in Mexico, who worked with GG Global Holdings and is accused of allegedly organizing logistics for the escape.

Jose Luis Kennedy Prieto: A Mexican also arrested and accused of allegedly forging passports for the Gadhafi family as part of the plot.

Special to The Globe and Mail

Editor's note: An earlier version of this story had the wrong date of an e-mail Cynthia Vanier sent to Gabriela de Cueto. The correct date of the e-mail is Aug. 26, 2011.

theglobeandmail.com 

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (89638)4/29/2012 9:33:32 PM
From: orkrious2 Recommendations   of 100764
 
Hugh Hendry, in a must read letter, thinks China is toast

zerohedge.com 

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To: orkrious who wrote (89640)4/29/2012 10:58:03 PM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation   of 100764
 
I am certain that 1.odd billion folks w/ savings, equity, and full of hope, just getting under way, shall not fall down tomorrow and even if falls, forget to get up, and stop producing, consuming, educating, learning, and saving.

Hendry does not understand or forgot, that china collapsed, and is bottoming. China once was and shall again be at 30+% of global GDP.

The ideas that china would fall because somehow, whether by global equalization of wages / productivity, or by planetary leveling of energy ramp, or free energy in USA are all suspect ideas for all the obvious reasons and many unintended consequence.

The ideas that china shall fall because of fiat money inflation or debt load or growing old before rich are equally if not more suspect for all the obvious reasons.

Then there is always the fallback / backstop, something about the banking system, which is truly funny as the banking system is mostly just a conduit and not stuffed full of derivatives. In truth no derivatives at all other than fiat money.

What Hendry wrote could have and had been written many times over the past 30 years, but alas, still waiting.

As to the Chinese stock market, given that folks are in at the 10% level, close enough for government work, the market index can go to zero and would not mean much.

The equity cult is a curse, but as far as china n European mainland are concerned, the cult has a minuscule following.

Am singularly unconcerned about china macro, because it is secular up and cyclical anything that has no particular meaning beyond a few months hiccup.

I shall read Hendry (I actually enjoy his writing style n content, for the joy and reflection) tonight.

Cheers, tj

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To: 2MAR$ who wrote (89627)4/29/2012 11:04:15 PM
From: TobagoJack   of 100764
 
This should be fun to watch over the elapsed time

bloomberg.com 

Titanic II to Be Built by Billionaire Palmer, Chinese Yard
By Elisabeth Behrmann - Apr 30, 2012 8:46 AM GMT+0800

Australian billionaire Clive Palmer plans to build a 21st-century version of the Titanic with the help of a Chinese shipyard, with the cruise ship’s maiden voyage from England to North America scheduled in late 2016.

Palmer said he had invited the Chinese navy to escort Titanic II on its maiden voyage to New York, according to an e- mailed statement. The initial pact with China’s CSC Jinling Shipyard also includes plans for a fleet of luxury liners.


Enlarge image
The Titanic sits under scaffolding in the spring of 1911 in this photo made available to the media by the Library of Congress. Source: Library of Congress (George Grantham Bain Collection) via Bloomberg


Audio Download: Dr. Ballard Describes Discovering Sunken Titanic

Enlarge image
Clive Palmer, chairman of Mineralogy Pty. Photographer: Patrick Hamilton/Bloomberg




The original Titanic sank after hitting an iceberg in the Atlantic on April 15, 1912, costing the lives of 1,514 passengers and crew, according to the statement. Mining magnate Palmer, 58, has a fortune of A$5.05 billion ($5.3 billion) and was Australia’s fifth-richest person, according to BRW magazine estimates in May.

“It will be every bit as luxurious as the original Titanic but of course it will have state-of-the-art 21st century technology and the latest navigation and safety systems,” Palmer said. “The Chinese ship building industry with our assistance wants to be a major player in this market.”

The Titanic, commissioned by White Star Line, was the largest liner in the world when built at just under 270 meters (886 feet) and 53 meters high.

Palmer is developing coal and iron ore mines in Australia, including the $8 billion China First coal project in Queensland state. Last year, he dropped plans to sell shares in his company Resourcehouse Ltd. in Hong Kong after commodities prices fell.

To contact the reporter on this story: Elisabeth Behrmann in Sydney at ebehrmann1@bloomberg.net

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From: 2MAR$4/30/2012 3:15:24 AM
   of 100764
 
Apple Reacts To NYTimes Tax Accusations

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To: 2MAR$ who wrote (89643)4/30/2012 4:00:09 AM
From: TobagoJack   of 100764
 
Wonder what the tax rate of nyt is? And its shareholders?

Apple should (i) thoroughly probe Washington post, nyt, and iht, and for good measure, check out times, Bloomberg, and fox tv news corp, and

(ii) apple should have the link to the investigation sent to all apple apps that serve up those media entities, and

(iii) apple should offer up reward for whistle blowers w/i those media organization, and

Lots of other ideas

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To: KyrosL who wrote (89630)4/30/2012 6:16:05 AM
From: Snowshoe   of 100764
 
>>OT Do you have an opinion about Alaska Communications (ALSK) as a company?<<

I'm a former ALSK customer, but I switched over to GNCMA years ago. Plenty of competition here in the telecom space, and ALSK dropped after cutting the dividend. Might be a potential buyout candidate with the current low valuation.

The only Alaska stock I own is my local bank, NRIM. It was a great buy in the 2008/2009 financial collapse, because the economy here remained relatively strong.

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To: orkrious who wrote (89640)4/30/2012 6:39:32 AM
From: TobagoJack   of 100764
 
As I had mentioned enough times, my gold is a china play, as well as a hedge for all other china plays

From some report named "on target"

"... A J-Curve Forecast for Gold

The price of gold is not likely to fall far, or for too long, says Daily Telegraph commentator Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, even though “it has reached a half- century high against a basket of indicators – equities, Treasuries, homes, workers’ pay.”

The root cause of the troubles of the world economy remains – “the deformed structure of globalization, with a $10 trillion reserve accumulation by the emerging powers, and an investment boom in manufacturing to flood Western markets, disguised by debt bubbles in the Anglo-sphere and Club Med.”

Indeed, in some respects things are worse.

Consumer demand is an even smaller proportion of the Chinese economy, having shrunk to 37 per cent of GDP compared to 48 per cent a decade ago.

“The mercantilists (chiefly China and Germany) are still holding on to trade surpluses through rigged currencies... exerting a contractionary bias on the deficit states.”

There is still over-supply in the global economy, as there was in the Great Depression years.

If the central banks keep printing money, the Asian surplus powers, as well as Russia and the Gulf states, will have to find somewhere to park their growing foreign reserves. Those countries won’t want to accumulate more of the deficit countries’ paper promises.

Russia is raising the gold share of its reserves to 10 per cent. China is known to be considering acquiring large gold reserves to boost its currency, the renminbi, as an international rival to the dollar.

Sasha Opel of Orsus Consult expects Beijing to boost its holdings by “several thousand tons” over the next five years to match America’s 8,000 and the Eurozone’s 11,000.

HSBC’s James Steel says $1,450 is a natural floor for the gold price as that is now the marginal cost of mining additional metal, and “peak gold” is a closer reality than “peak oil.” World output has been stuck for a decade at around 2,700 tons a year, despite a fourfold increase in investment. No great find – another Witwatersrand – is in prospect.

The consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS reckons the immediate outlook for gold is a “rough patch” taking prices below $1,600.

Then several factors could rekindle investment interest in the yellow metal such as the debt crisis in the Eurozone, looser policy from the US central bank such as money printing ahead of the November presidential election, a let-up in China’s tighter-money policy, a jump in oil prices raising fears of runaway inflation.

Together, such factors could trigger a fresh wave of interest in gold, boosting investment demand to nearly 2,000 tons, worth more than $100 billion, surpassing the 2009 record of 1,922 tons, and taking prices to a new record above $2,000 in the next 12 months ..."







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To: Snowshoe who wrote (89645)4/30/2012 8:34:40 AM
From: KyrosL   of 100764
 
Thanks. I have been dabbling in dogs that pay high dividends lately with some success. Bought and sold SVU. Bought FTR, sold some, keeping some. Now looking at ALSK. Management is poor, but dividend, 8% at current levels, is very well covered by free cash flow, and it's a good fit for Verizon, which is about to invade Alaska.

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