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 Strategies & Market Trends | The Financial Collapse of 2001 and Beyond


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From: carranza24/11/2012 5:08:30 AM
   of 101279
 
Bloomberg reporting 8.9 earthquake in northern Sumatra.......yes, 8.9.

Huge quake. Tsunami certainly possible given its power.

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From: carranza24/11/2012 7:06:53 AM
   of 101279
 
Man o' Darkness on Europe:

acting-man.com 

And for a trip down memory lane, sauced with a good laugh for us Muppets, for your reading pleasure I now present you with the Squid's 10 year Treasury interest rate prognostications it made on 12/10 - 3.3% by today. And US growth? Glad you asked: 4% by mid 2012.

zerohedge.com 

The reasoning by its Global Macro and Markets Team, presumably the slickest, smartest BSDs on Wall St:

"5. After being bullish on the direction of government bond yields for the past 18 months, in October we first signalled that the cyclical trough for longer-dated yields was upon us (we forecast 10-yr Treasury at 2.5% for the previous quarter). Going forward, we now see 10-yr yields in the major markets modestly rising, led by real rates. This entails bonds being in a ‘bear market’ over the forecast horizon, but one which should not pull the rug from under a pro-cyclical stance, as inflation and central banks remain friendly. We forecast 10-yr US Treasuries and German Bunds at 3.25% by end-2011, and JGBs trading at 1.5%. We have pencilled in a further 50bp sell-off across the major three markets in 2012. These forecasts are consistent with our forward-looking ‘fair value’ paths implied by our Bond Sudoku valuation model. More specifically, plugging in our macro and policy projections over the next two years implies a gradual pick-up in equilibrium yields from 2.75%-3.00% currently to the 3.50%-3.75% range for US Treasuries and German Bunds, and around 4.0% for 10-yr Gilts."

What a bunch of dopes.

Isn't life grand?

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From: 2MAR$4/11/2012 7:24:57 AM
   of 101279
 
Italy sold €11 billion of short-term bills paying 2.84 percent to sell one-year debt up from 1.41 percent at the previous auction. The Italian market rallied after the successful auction. Meanwhile Germany's bond auction flopped after yields hit a record low.

Germany sees very weak demand at an auction of 10-year Bunds, able to move just €3.87B of paper vs. a target of €5B. The bid-cover ratio was just 1.1. The notes were priced to yield 1.77% - a record-low for an auction - but sharply higher than the 1.64% Bunds were trading at yesterday

Iran cuts oil exports to Germany - PressTV

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-things-april-11-2012-4#ixzz1rjJBqVMD

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To: 2MAR$ who wrote (88978)4/11/2012 7:25:27 AM
From: 2MAR$   of 101279
 
China may be building its strategic oil reserves, WSJ reports
China's crude oil imports surged to near record levels last month, as some energy analysts believe the country is hoarding oil for its strategic reserves, reports the Wall Street Journal

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To: 2MAR$ who wrote (88978)4/11/2012 7:36:13 AM
From: carranza2   of 101279
 
The Spanish and Italian auctions need to be contrasted/compared.

Italian all less than 3 year stuff, ergo, backstopped by LTRO. Yields? Don't ask. Lol. The Italian short term stuff yielded significantly more than our 10 year.

I think ditto for Spanish.

Question, then: why did the Spanish stuff do so badly if LTRO in place?

Got to love those Europeans.....willing to destroy the Zone in order to save it.

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To: bart13 who wrote (88967)4/11/2012 8:17:09 AM
From: elmatador1 Recommendation   of 101279
 
Whatever goes into the fund today, is immediately spent into someone who -in the past- paid into that fund.

You pay on until, at some point in the future, you start withdrawing from the fund.

That if there is someone paying into the fund at the present time.

If there is less people paying into the fund, then there is less to withdrawn than it was promised at the beginning.

Thi is how it works for pensions.

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To: elmatador who wrote (88981)4/11/2012 8:24:02 AM
From: The Jack of Hearts   of 101279
 
Pension funds depend upon investments also.. gravy days being gone is also having an effect..

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To: bart13 who wrote (88967)4/11/2012 8:26:51 AM
From: elmatador   of 101279
 
If most employees, employers, and people who are self-employed contribute to a trust fund and the proceeds cover the costs of health.

What are the Medicare Trust Funds?
Medicare is paid for through two trust fund accounts held by the U.S. Treasury. These funds can only be used for Medicare.

1. Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund
What does it pay for?
¦¦Medicare Part A (Hospital Insurance) benefits, such as inpatient hospital care, skilled nursing facility care,
home health care, and hospice care

¦¦Medicare Program administration, such as costs for paying benefits, collecting Medicare taxes, and combating fraud and abuse

How is it funded?
¦¦Payroll taxes paid by most employees, employers,
and people who are self-employed

¦¦Other sources, such as income taxes paid on Social Security benefits, interest earned on the trust fund investments, and Part A premiums from people who aren’t eligible for premium-free Part A

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To: The Jack of Hearts who wrote (88982)4/11/2012 8:36:10 AM
From: elmatador2 Recommendations   of 101279
 
Pension funds were devised for a time investments returns were guaranteed by the old form of capitalism.

Starting early 80s, when private equity gave rise for a new form of capitalism, economy faced a volatile investment climate in which there weren't any guarantees.

But people -ordinary people- did not perceive that the economy has changed. The economy had become much more complex but ordinary people continued holding the same beliefs that government and economic agents were taking care of their interests.

Today they are waking up for the reality that the whole superstructure built during the old capitalism heyday crumbled and there is nothing new to supersede it. Meaning: they will be on their own.

Always make the connection between what is happening today and correlate it with the old form of capitalism that vanished in the 80s.

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To: elmatador who wrote (88984)4/11/2012 8:40:29 AM
From: The Jack of Hearts   of 101279
 
Appears some unrealistic expectations were set on the upswing... Pension bailouts ensue ?

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