Strategies & Market TrendsThe Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: bobcor who wrote (95852)11/29/2007 2:10:59 PM
From: zebra4o1
of 306829
Bobcor, just so I'm clear, you are using the Hussman approach where you short individual stocks, but then are long an ETF?

So far most of my downside bets have been with LEAP puts, but these have gotten very expensive. I've tried buying way in the money LEAP puts recently to avoid paying the huge time premium, but the leverage is not much better than straight shorting. My problem with shorting is that my accounts are full of penny stocks and puts - don't have much that is marginable that I can put up against a short.

Maybe LEAP puts really aren't that expensive considering the obvious recession dead ahead. Hey, maybe they are a bargain!

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To: Clase Azul who wrote (95854)11/29/2007 2:21:32 PM
From: Archie Meeties
of 306829
Been looking at them for a few months and have stayed away. Foreclosure rates are going down, but the inventory overhang is still going up. A reversal in inventory will be a decent leading indicator. Mid '08 to see some reversal in inventory, meaning they homebuilders might be a buy in q1-q2 '08.

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To: Clase Azul who wrote (95854)11/29/2007 2:31:27 PM
From: saveslivesbyday
of 306829
"anyone nibbling yet on builders?" Yes - I nibble on puts

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To: Clase Azul who wrote (95854)11/29/2007 2:32:08 PM
From: Travis_Bickle
of 306829
I keep my eye on NVR as a buy near 400 but lately it hasn't been tanking as much as the others.

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To: Clase Azul who wrote (95854)11/29/2007 2:36:24 PM
From: Paul Kern
of 306829
anyone nibbling yet on builders? i'm thinking it may be time

Maybe in a couple of years. This mess will along time to play out. There is all that inventory and no demand and no mortgage money and the usual lying scum in the real estate business and the guys who said that its "contained" and ....

PS: The last real estate crash lasted from 1989-1996 unless you were in the New York metro area where is started in October, 1987.

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From: ChanceIs11/29/2007 4:08:22 PM
of 306829
Florida Moves to Halt Run on Fund

>>>Ha. I scooped CR on this one. First run on US bank (equivalent)?? Feel that credit tighten!!! Hear those helicopters rev up!!! <<<

November 29, 2007 3:17 p.m.

Florida halted withdrawals from a $15 billion local-government fund Thursday after concerns over losses related to subprime mortgages prompted investors to pull roughly $10 billion out of the fund in recent weeks.

The State Board of Administration met Thursday and voted to immediately freeze withdrawals, spokesman Michael McCauley said.

The decision shows how far this year's subprime-fueled credit crisis has spread. Florida's Local Government Investment Pool, which had more than $27 billion in assets at the end of September, is a money-market fund that's supposed to invest in ultrasafe assets to provide participants with a secure place to stash spare cash. But even these types of funds have been hit by the widening crunch.

Wednesday, the State Board of Administration, which includes Gov. Charlie Crist, issued a statement trying to reassuring investors in the fund that their money was safe.

While some of the fund's investments have been downgraded, they continue to pay principal and interest, Executive Director Coleman Stipanovich said in the statement.

Still, the board is considering several ways to cut risks and assure investors, including buying credit protection against defaults on roughly $1.5 billion of downgraded securities in the portfolio.

The fund may also adopt more conservative investment guidelines and focus on more easily tradable securities.

The fund hasn't bought any asset-backed commercial paper this month and expects its exposure to this troubled part of the short-term borrowing market to be under 15% by the end of this year, the board said in its statement on Wednesday.

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To: Paul Kern who wrote (95859)11/29/2007 4:10:24 PM
From: John Vosilla
of 306829
True this still has several years to run.. Many will go under. Strongest survivors with the proper management and access to capital will be huge winners in 4-5 years. However, probably like in 1991-94, when builder stocks did go up dramatically for periods of time there will be monster contratrend rallys in share prices..

Just a hunch but probably a blowoff bottom coming in CTX as one example retesting 2000 lows if it is one of the survivors, then a monster contratrend rally like what started in 1991 even as fundamentals show no real improvement the balance of this decade.

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From: Smiling Bob11/29/2007 4:11:17 PM
of 306829
Call it hot, trendy, chic- just don't call it inflation
Must be a Rove strategy
Wiping your ass with just 3 sheets is very, VERY cool.
Keeping the heat down to 60 degrees- nothing cooler than that.
Various types of alcohol were also hot on menus, according to the survey, both as an ingredient in cooking and on the drink menu.
Alcohol= Huge margins and makes the crap they serve you on the dish you wouldn't feed your dog on in the dark cesspool you're eating in taste pretty good.

Small gets trendy in U.S. restaurants

2 hours, 19 minutes ago

Small servings of food, such as small plates, tapas, mezze and bite-sized desserts, have become the hottest new trend in U.S. restaurants after years of big being best, according to a survey on Thursday.

A poll by the National Restaurant Association found that small is now big on restaurant menus, according to 1,282 professional chefs questioned for its second annual "What's Hot...What's Not" food and drink survey.

Other hot trends cited by the chefs, all of whom were members of the American Culinary Federation, included alternative-source ingredients, ethnic flavors, and specialty alcohol.

"The trend of small plates is definitely hot, including offering tasting menus of small portions of food, wine or other alcohol beverages," chef John Kinsella, president of the American Culinary Federation and senior chef instructor at Midwest Culinary Institute in Cincinnati, said in a statement.

"(But) the trend I see as the fastest growing going into 2008 is the alternative-source ingredients -- local produce, organics, sustainable seafood, grass-fed and free-range items."

Adding ethnic cuisines, flavors and ingredients into restaurant menus was also shown to be a trend, with fusion ethnic cuisine, flatbreads, Asian entree salads, Asian appetizers, Latin American cuisine, ciabatta bread, and Mediterranean cuisine rated high on the list of hot items.

Various types of alcohol were also hot on menus, according to the survey, both as an ingredient in cooking and on the drink menu.

Craft beers, energy-drink cocktails, martinis, mojitos, artisan liquors, organic wine and specialty beer such as those that are seasonal or spiced, were all among the top 20 hot items.

"As American diners are growing increasingly sophisticated, adult beverages can be an important part of both recipes and meals," said Dawn Sweeney, president and CEO of the Association, in the statement

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To: the_wheel who wrote (95778)11/29/2007 4:17:20 PM
From: John Vosilla
of 306829
'Prices are way down!'

Can anyone top a 60% plunge from $260k to just under $100k for this La Salle Bank REO in eighteen months?

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (95861)11/29/2007 4:19:51 PM
From: BWAC
of 306829
Just FYI, lets not forget that the large part of this real estate mess is somewhat localized to the insane bubble markets.

Sold 6 lots today to an independent builder in a new subdiv. (NC). Got 95% of asking price. 24 more to go.

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