Strategies & Market Trends | The Residential Real Estate Crash Index


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To: XBrit who wrote (146229)9/14/2008 3:38:43 AM
From: XBrit of 306800
 
OK, Nouriel Roubini is also getting wound up. This weekend may well be a critical one in this whole credit bust. (Note: I don't boldface text very often, but this stuff is important.)

If Lehman collapses expect a run on all of the other broker dealers and the collapse of the shadow banking system

Sep 13, 2008

It is now clear that we are again – as we were in mid- March at the time of the Bear Stearns collapse – an epsilon away from a generalized run on most of the shadow banking system, especially the other major independent broker dealers (Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs). If Lehman does not find a buyer over the weekend and the counterparties of Lehman withdraw their credit lines on Monday (as they all will in the absence of a deal) you will have not only a collapse of Lehman but also the beginning of a run on the other independent broker dealers (Merrill Lynch first but also in sequence Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and possibly even those broker dealers that are part of a larger commercial bank, I.e. JP Morgan and Citigroup). Then this run would lead to a massive systemic meltdown of the financial system. That is the reason why the Fed has convened in emergency meetings the heads of all major Wall Street firms on Friday and again today to convince them not to pull the plug on Lehman and maintain their exposure to this distressed broker dealer.


rgemonitor.com 

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From: Elroy Jetson9/14/2008 5:44:36 AM
of 306800
 
Washington Mutual Buys Lehman Brothers

(Washington) Tuesday, September 15, 2008

Washington Mutual has agreed to purchase Lehman Brothers in a surprise deal just released. The merger was announced this evening by President Bush and joined by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Wamu CEO Alan Fishman at a White House press conference. Paulson said, "The Federal Reserve stands ready to provide the liquidity necessary to provide the stability the markets demand of this strong union."

Paulson reiterated that no taxpayer money will be used as the Federal Reserve is a privately owned institution which will not need government assistance." After a day of turmoil in the markets on Monday, President Bush hailed the merger as a sign of strength. "This deal shows our capitalism are strong and will never surrender to socialistical terrorists," Bush said in closing.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called the Washington Mutual deal, "a compelling 'two birds with one stone' deal with sych obvious synergies . . . it's hard to believe no one thought of it before."

Separately, Merrill Lynch shares rebounded four points in after hours trading to 5.37 on rumors that Downey Savings & Loan is preparing an all cash offer for the firm.


THIS PRESS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL 5PM EST 9/15/2008
FOR FURTHER DETAILS CONTACT MARK SALTER HOMELAND SECURITY PRESS OFFICE

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To: marcher who wrote (146220)9/14/2008 7:19:57 AM
From: 10K a day of 306800
 
> they are on the "already screwed" list. <<

prob. upgraded to conviction screw list.. :)

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (146231)9/14/2008 7:25:31 AM
From: 10K a day of 306800
 
Yah. and change the name to LehMu.

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From: saveslivesbyday9/14/2008 7:27:53 AM
of 306800
 
The Joys of Ownership
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON

SO, ladies and gentlemen, how does it feel to be the new owner of those two big and banged-up mortgage companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? Not exactly the kind of real estate you were looking to buy, you say? Felt you had swallowed enough garbage after the Bear Stearns bailout tapped you for $29 billion?

Make no mistake: we, the American taxpayers, are amassing quite a portfolio of flotsam and jetsam in the mortgage bust. It certainly brings new meaning to the notion of an ownership society, doesn’t it?

To be sure, the terms of the Mac ’n’ Mae rescue deal are still sinking in. And it will be years before we know how much taxpayers will have to pay for the privilege of backing these out-of-control entities. But in the meantime, here are some of the joys that ownership in Mac ’n’ Mae might bring.

The proud new owners — the taxpayers — could be asked to cover such niceties as the pay packages awarded to the chief executives, Daniel H. Mudd at Fannie Mae and Richard F. Syron at Freddie Mac, as they exit the accident scene. Estimates for what these arrangements might cost: $24 million in severance, retirement benefits and deferred compensation for both men.

That’s not all. When the inevitable shareholder lawsuits are filed against Mac ’n’ Mae’s executives, who professed until the bitter end that their companies were in fine financial shape, who might cover the costs of defending those suits?

Why, you and I, the taxpayers, silly.

And, in another twist, we may also be asked to cover the legal bills of Franklin D. Raines, the former chief executive of Fannie Mae, who was ousted after that company’s accounting scandal in 2004. Under the terms of his separation agreement, Fannie Mae paid these bills.

Late Friday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the new overseer of Mac ’n’ Mae, said it might limit the payment of legal fees and exit packages if it had reason to believe the recipients committed fraud, breach of fiduciary duty, were substantially responsible for the insolvency of either entity or violated regulations. If regulators found gross negligence or willful misconduct, that would also be considered as the agency ponders whether to make these payments.

Maybe they’ll be paid, maybe they won’t. Stay tuned.

Of course, legal fees and exit packages are as nothing next to the billions in potential losses we face as taxpayers in having to guarantee bad mortgages that Mac ’n’ Mae financed during the boom.

Those losses may also expand, because the Mac ’n’ Mae bailout has created an interesting conflict of interest involving the financial practice of forcing entities that originated bad mortgages to take them back.

If those running Fannie and Freddie had taxpayers’ interests at heart, they would be working assiduously to return as many questionable mortgages as they could to the firms who originated them (those firms that still exist, that is).

Lenders who sold loans to Mac ’n’ Mae, after all, agreed to buy back any mortgages that involved fraudulent representations or material misstatements.

HENCE the conflict: Treasury officials might feel queasy about enforcing such buyback provisions if they further imperil troubled lenders and create more losses for banks already wobbling under mounting mistakes.

So, unfortunately, questionable loans that might have been jettisoned could well stay on the taxpayers’ tab.

Given these and other downsides to the bailout, taxpayers surely seem entitled to get something in return for their Mac ’n’ Mae ownership. That something should be more immediate than a pie-in-the-sky promise of future payoffs to the United States Treasury.

Here is a modest suggestion for James B. Lockhart, chairman of the F.H.F.A., to consider: Do the new owners — us deep-pocketed taxpayers — a favor, and open up Mac ’n’ Mae’s books so we can see exactly what we own.

Also, force both companies to disclose details on every mortgage they guaranteed or purchased in the last 10 years. This would include loan type, the year when the loan was made, the original rating on the security and its originator.

That way, the new owners would be able to see how deep into the subprime loan swamp Fannie and Freddie waded during the lending spree. After all, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry publication, Mac ’n’ Mae bought almost $170 billion in subprime mortgage-backed securities in 2005, roughly one-third of the total issuance that year. And they bought an additional $120 billion in subprime mortgage securities in 2006, or 27 percent of the total amount issued.

We would then see how heavily Mac ’n’ Mae relied on such aggressive but now defunct lenders as Ameriquest, Long Beach Mortgage and New Century.

Such visuals might help keep the Mac ’n’ Mae mess from happening again.

As the regulator of a new federal overseer, Mr. Lockhart has a wonderful opportunity to do what none of the other financial regulators have been willing to do: demand a level of disclosure that allows Mac ’n’ Mae’s new owners to evaluate the companies’ holdings accurately.

If that doesn’t occur, investors and taxpayers are left to speculate about what might lurk inside these companies.

An ancillary benefit may accrue from greater disclosure. Asking Mac ’n’ Mae to bare their books might encourage other financial institutions to be more open, too.

You see, stonewalling investors who plead for transparency while marking assets at higher values than they would fetch in a sale just does not work anymore.

If you don’t believe me, ask the crew over at Lehman Brothers.

nytimes.com 

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (146231)9/14/2008 7:32:36 AM
From: dealmakr of 306800
 
FINANCIAL CRISIS AVERTED

J P MORGAN KEY PLAYER IN RESTORING INVESTOR CONFIDENCE

Location: New York City

Time: Pre rocket science and Black Box gadgetry, but enough time for the lessons of the past to be forgotten AGAIN.

Just a bit of a recap of what got screwed up before.

From Wikipedia;

Panic of 1907
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search

A swarm on Wall Street attempts to withdraw deposits during the bank panic in October 1907.The Panic of 1907, also known as the 1907 Bankers' Panic, was a financial crisis in the United States. The stock market fell nearly 50% from its peak in 1906, the economy was in recession, and there were numerous runs on banks and trust companies. Its primary cause was a retraction of loans by some banks that began in New York City and soon spread across the nation, leading to the closings of banks and businesses. The 1907 panic was the fourth panic in 34 years.

The panic was sparked after an attempt to corner the market in a copper company collapsed in October. The failure of the corner prompted runs on banks that had loaned money for the scheme. This spread to affiliated banks and trusts, leading to the downfall of the Knickerbocker Trust Company, New York's third largest trust company, a week later. From Knickerbocker, the contagion spread throughout New York City trusts and then across the country, as regional banks pulled deposits out of New York, and people everywhere pulled their deposits out of regional banks.

At the time the United States had no central bank to provide liquidity. The panic may have been worse if not for the intervention of New York's most famous banker J.P. Morgan, who convinced other bankers in the city to provide a backstop for the crisis. By November the contagion stopped, and the next year, Senator Nelson W. Aldrich became chairman of a commission to investigate the panic and propose future solutions. The commission reports led directly to the creation of the Federal Reserve System.

Contents [hide]
1 Causes
2 Aftermath
3 See also
4 Notes
5 References
6 External links



[edit] Causes
Timeline of panic
in New York City[1]

Oct. 15 Otto Heinze attempts to corner the stock of United Copper. The stock opens at $50 per share and rises to $59 before collapsing to $36 at the end of the day.
Oct. 16 United Copper stock falls further, closing the day at $10 per share. Otto Heinze's brokerage house, Gross & Kleeberg is forced to close doors.
Oct. 17 The Exchange suspends Otto Heinze and company. The State Savings Bank of Butte, Montana, owned by Augustus Heinze announces it is insolvent. Augustus is forced to resign from Mercantile National Bank.
Oct. 20 The New York Clearing House forces Augustus Heinze and Charles W. Morse to resign from all their banking interests.
Oct. 21 Charles T. Barney is forced to resign from the Knickerbocker Trust Company because of his ties to Morse and Heinze. The National Bank of Commerce says it will no longer serve as its clearing house.
Oct. 22 A bank run forces the Knickerbocker to suspend operations.
Oct. 23 J.P. Morgan persuades other trust company presidents to provide liquidity to the Trust Company of America, staving off its collapse.
Oct. 24 Morgan persuades bank presidents to provide liquidity to the New York Stock Exchange which nearly closes early. The Twelfth Ward Bank, Empire City Savings Bank, Hamilton Bank of New York, First National Bank of Brooklyn, International Trust Company of New York, Williamsburg Trust Company of Brooklyn, Borough Bank of Brooklyn, and Jenkins Trust Company of Brooklyn all fail.
Oct. 27 The City of New York tells Morgan associate George Perkins that if they cannot raise $20–30 million by November 1, the city will be insolvent.
Oct. 28 Morgan purchased $30 million in city bonds, averting bankruptcy for the city.
Nov. 2 Moore & Schley, a major brokerage house, nears collapse because its loans were backed by the Tennessee Coal, Iron & Railroad Company (TC&I), a stock whose value was questioned. A proposal is made for U.S. Steel to purchase TC&I.
Nov. 3 The Trust Company of America again nears collapse. Morgan arranges a $25 million loan from banks to save the Trust.
Nov. 4 President Theodore Roosevelt approves U.S. Steel's takeover of TC&I, despite anticompetitive concerns.
Nov. 5 Markets are closed for Election Day.
Nov. 6 U.S. Steel completes takeover of TC&I. Markets begin to recover. Runs at the Trust Company of America mostly stop.
One of the contributing factors of the Panic involved F. Augustus Heinze and his bank, Mercantile National Bank. Heinze copied the speculation tactics of Charles W. Morse, who had obtained control of the Bank of North America and other banks to float consolidations and other schemes. In 1906, Heinze sold his shares in Montana copper mines for $12 million. He then moved to New York, bought Mercantile National Bank and became a director in a national financial chain.

In March 1907, over-expansion and poor speculation led to a stock market crash. Money became extremely tight. A second crash occurred in October 1907. This time, the crash was directly precipitated by Heinze's brother, Otto, who had used money borrowed from his brother's bank in a failed attempt to corner United Copper. The failure caused the collapse of Heinze's bank, and investors at banks connected to Heinze's bank became panicked. The crisis worsened, and because of an association with Charles Morse, the ill association spread to Charles T. Barney's Knickerbocker Trust Company, the third largest trust in New York. In the wake of the crash, Heinze was forced to resign as bank president. On October 21, the National Bank of Commerce ceased to honor checks of Knickerbocker Trust, causing a run on the Knickerbocker Trust. By the end of October 22, the National Bank of North America had failed and runs were sparked on nearly every trust in New York.

To bring relief to the situation, United States Secretary of the Treasury George B. Cortelyou earmarked $35 million of Federal money to quell the storm. Complete ruin of the national economy was averted when J.P. Morgan stepped in to meet the crisis. Morgan organized a team of bank and trust executives. The team redirected money between banks, secured further international lines of credit, and bought plummeting stocks of healthy corporations. Within a few weeks the panic passed.


[edit] Aftermath
Early in 1907, Jacob Schiff of Kuhn, Loeb & Co., in a speech to the New York Chamber of Commerce, warned that "unless we have a central bank with adequate control of credit resources, this country is going to undergo the most severe and far reaching money panic in its history."


A 1910 editorial cartoon in Puck titled: "The Central Bank--Why should Uncle Sam establish one, when Uncle Pierpont is already on the job?"Following the Panic of 1907, banking reform became a major issue in the United States. In May 1908, Congress passed the Aldrich-Vreeland Act which established the National Monetary Commission to investigate the panic and to propose legislation to regulate banking. Senator Nelson Aldrich, (R-RI) the chairman of the National Monetary Commission, went to Europe for almost two years to study that continent's banking systems.

A meeting at Jekyll Island in November 1910 may have hastened the creation of the Federal Reserve. Upon Aldrich's return, he brought together many of the country's leading financiers to the Jekyll Island Club to discuss monetary policy and the banking system, an event which some say was the impetus for the creation of the Federal Reserve.

On the evening of November 22 1910, Sen. Aldrich and A.P. Andrews (Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Department), Paul Warburg (a naturalized German representing Kuhn, Loeb & Co.), Frank A. Vanderlip (president of the National City Bank of New York), Henry P. Davison (senior partner of J. P. Morgan Company), Charles D. Norton (president of the Morgan-dominated First National Bank of New York), and Benjamin Strong (representing J. P. Morgan), left Hoboken, New Jersey on a train in view of a group of confused reporters, who were wondering why these bankers, representing about one-sixth of the world's wealth, were gathering at this particular place and time and leaving together.

Forbes magazine founder Bertie Charles Forbes wrote several years later:

Picture a party of the nation’s greatest bankers stealing out of New York on a private railroad car under cover of darkness, stealthily riding hundred of miles South, embarking on a mysterious launch, sneaking onto an island deserted by all but a few servants, living there a full week under such rigid secrecy that the names of not one of them was once mentioned, lest the servants learn the identity and disclose to the world this strangest, most secret expedition in the history of American finance. I am not romancing; I am giving to the world, for the first time, the real story of how the famous Aldrich currency report, the foundation of our new currency system, was written... The utmost secrecy was enjoined upon all. The public must not glean a hint of what was to be done. Senator Aldrich notified each one to go quietly into a private car of which the railroad had received orders to draw up on an unfrequented platform. Off the party set. New York’s ubiquitous reporters had been foiled... Nelson (Aldrich) had confided to Henry, Frank, Paul and Piatt that he was to keep them locked up at Jekyll Island, out of the rest of the world, until they had evolved and compiled a scientific currency system for the United States, the real birth of the present Federal Reserve System, the plan done on Jekyll Island in the conference with Paul, Frank and Henry... Warburg is the link that binds the Aldrich system and the present system together. He more than any one man has made the system possible as a working reality.[2]

In 1912, the National Monetary Commission recommended the creation of a central bank. In 1913 congress passed the Federal Reserve Act, which mandated the creation of a central banking system to dampen the effects of future panics. The legislation was enacted on December 23, 1913, creating the Federal Reserve System


[edit] See also
Great Depression
Panic of 1837

[edit] Notes
^ Distilled from BrunerCarr 2007
^ Griffin 1998

[edit] References
Bruner, Robert F. & Carr, Sean D. (2007), The Panic of 1907; Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm, Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 0470152638
Carosso, Vincent P. (1987), The Morgans: Private International Bankers, 1854-1913, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, ISBN 0674587294
Chernow, Ron (2001), The House of Morgan: An American Banking Dynasty and the Rise of Modern Finance, New York: Grove Press, ISBN 0802138292
Fettig, David (ed) (1989), "F. Augustus Heinze and the Panic of 1907", The Region (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis), <http://minneapolisfed.org/pubs/region/89-08/REG898C.cfm>
Friedman, Milton (1963), A Monetary History of the United States: 1867-1960, Princeton: Princeton University Press
Griffin, G. Edward (1998), The Creature from Jekyll Island : A Second Look at the Federal Reserve, American Media, ISBN 0-912986-21-2
Kindleberger, Charles P. & Aliber, Robert (2005), Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (5th ed.), Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 0471467144
Moen, Jon (1990), "Lessons from the Panic of 1907", Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review 75: 2–13, <http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/ern390_tallman.pdf>
Moen, Jon (1992), "The Bank Panic of 1907: The Role of the Trust Companies", The Journal of Economic History 52(3): 611–30, <http://www.jstor.org/pss/2122887>
Moen, Jon (August 15, 2001), Robert Whaples, ed., Panic of 1907, EH.Net Encyclopedia, <http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/moen.panic.1907>
Smith, B. Mark (2004), A History of the Global Stock Market; From Ancient Rome to Silicon Valley (2004 ed.), Chicago: University of Chicago Press, ISBN 0226764044
Sprague, Oliver M.W. (1908), "The American Crisis of 1907", The Economic Journal 18: 353–72, doi:10.2307/2221551

[edit] External links
Panic of 1907 at National Public Radio
Account of the Panic by "The Daily Reckoning"
[show]v • d • eBanking Panics in the United States

Panic of 1797 · Panic of 1819 · Panic of 1825 · Panic of 1837 · Panic of 1847 · Panic of 1857 · Panic of 1866 · Panic of 1873 · Panic of 1884 · Panic of 1890 · Panic of 1893 · Panic of 1896 · Panic of 1901 · Panic of 1907 · Panic of 1910-1911

[show]v • d • eStock market crashes

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To: XoFruitCake who wrote (146217)9/14/2008 8:25:16 AM
From: arun gera of 306800
 
Another simple risk management technique could increase risk

All small business and individuals start breaking up their deposits into multiples of $100,000 or less, that are FDIC insured. This flow could be deleterious to many of the smaller banks that would suddenly find huge percentages of their deposits transferred to bigger banks.

-Arun

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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (146211)9/14/2008 8:42:53 AM
From: paul61 of 306800
 
hopefully.....there is a democrap....somewhere...with a backbone..that wants this to lay heavily ON the repuglycan President. Hope this goes to BK so we can actually see what there is. "Bring it on!!!!!"

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To: paul61 who wrote (146237)9/14/2008 9:01:45 AM
From: 10K a day of 306800
 
> Hope this goes to BK so we can actually see what there is. "Bring it on!!!!!" <<

I don't think that's a good idea.

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To: Dan3 who wrote (146196)9/14/2008 9:20:50 AM
From: Pogeu Mahone of 306800
 
But But it works!!
when will the dems wise up?
Kerry 3 purple hearts, Bronze Star, a Silver Star , was swift boated and did not answer these rediculous charges until it was too late. He thought no one could take them seriously.
He was wrong the merican public loves lies and gossip.
==============
Trying to blame the last 8 years on the Democrats is pathetic - the kind of blatant lying usually only seen from demented crack heads.

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