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To: Steve Lokness who wrote (1036)4/2/1998 4:56:00 PM
From: Edward Paule
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Thanks for the diversification picks. I'll try to look at them sometime soon. I was already looking at AXPH to replace SMTG in my portfolio should SMTG's planned takeover by BAX actually happen.

I once compiled a list of over 250 public biotech companies. I just didn't have the time to look at each one before making an investment decision. That's why I subscribe to Jim McCamant's MTSL. He helps narrow the search. But, I don't limit myself to just his picks either. At the moment, 10 of the 12 stocks I own are on his recommended list.

Ed.

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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (1037)4/2/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: Edward Paule
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Tom,

Your method for improving your position by doing some trading along the bumpy road seems to be similar to mine. However, the words "extra cash" and "cash reserve" are foreign to me ;) I'm almost always fully invested.

My basic method is that I have a core position in a stock and a smaller trading position. The core position is held for the long haul. The trading position is just that. When a stock up, I'll sell some or all of the trading position. When a stock is down, I'll by more shares; most of which add to the trading position, but some will add to the core position.

Back in December, when tax related selling had punished many biotech stocks. I was a big buyer, going heavily into margin.

Two weeks ago, I sold half of my trading position in CTRX. Today, I sold half of my trading position in TCEL. I hope to sell half of my CHIR trading position next week during the peak of the Myotrophin excitement. These transactions combined with selling all of my SMTG/BAX shares will eliminate my margin. If the market keeps going up, I will sell more of my trading positions in order to build a "cash reserve" for the upcoming correction. But my timing is usually so bad, I'm usually still on margin when the correction occurs. But it's getting better.

Ed.

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To: Edward Paule who wrote (1040)4/2/1998 8:56:00 PM
From: OldAIMGuy
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Hi Ed,

I'm retired and can't afford any debt, so margin is out of the question. Besides the interest on the cash helps to compensate me for investing in all these stocks that have no dividends!

If I could substitute freshly earned money for the cash reserve, I'd do that, but alas, I quit "working" too early for that.

My money market funds act like a shock absorber for my portfolio. I can imagine a time when I'd take a mortgage on my house to continue buying, but I hope I never witness it!! A period like '69 to '74 could be brutal for me (and everyone else).

My "core" position is really a value rather than a number of shares. If I have X000 shares of stock worth $20,000 to start an account, during the first price cycle, I'll maintain very close to the $20,000 even though the number of shares may vary. The method I use lets the portfolio build with each buy cycle. Maybe with the first cycle, it'll expand my risk envelop to $23,000. Each cycle will do something similar. In theory, after enough cycles I should own all the shares!!!

The method I use is quite structured, and that's good for me. I cheat the method every chance I get, but not by much. I no longer let the cash reserve get bigger than a certain percentage of the overall portfolio. In my earlier days, I mistakenly let the cash rise to absurd levels. Now I keep a lid on the cash which helps to keep the overall performance up.

CHIR has pretty well used up all the reserve I had for it and I'm hoping to rebuild it soon. I've been content to add a few shares in the high teens and sell them back to the market in the low $20s. I've had several cycles from about $17+ to $23 in the last couple of years. I'm still waiting for CHIR to get back on some sort of upward track.

I appreciate you taking the time to write me about the similarities between our methods. Whether one uses a cash reserve or a margin account it would appear that we both follow the same basic strategy of using the market's own pendulum action to our own advantage. I certainly hope the pendulum for CHIR has finished this part of its arc!!!

Thanks again,
Tom Veale

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To: Mr. Giller who wrote (1032)4/5/1998 12:35:00 AM
From: synchro
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I would add that Biotech stocks are really long-term option plays. You are buying a call option on future potential blockbuster drugs. Just like option is a wasting asset w/ time decay, a biotech stock as cash "burn-rate". You want to make sure that the biotech has enough cash to burn thru the expensive phase I/II/III drug trial period and final filing w/ FDA.

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To: synchro who wrote (1042)4/6/1998 9:41:00 AM
From: carrngc
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Anyone care to interpret?


FDA Cancels Myotrophin Advisory Panel Meeting
Monday, April 6 8:00 AM ET

WEST CHESTER, Pa., and EMERYVILLE, Calif., April 6 /PRNewswire/ -- Cephalon, Inc. (NASDAQ:CEPH) and Chiron Corporation (NASDAQ:CHIR) announced today that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has cancelled the Peripheral and Central Nervous System Drugs Advisory Committee meeting, scheduled for April 9, 1998, to allow the agency to continue its review of the companies' new drug application (NDA) seeking clearance to market MYOTROPHIN(R) (mecasermin) Injection for the treatment of ALS.
Cephalon, Inc., headquartered in West Chester, PA, is an international biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and markets products to treat neurological disorders.

Chiron Corporation, headquartered in Emeryville, Calif., is a leading global biotechnology company that combines diagnostic, vaccine and therapeutic strategies for controlling disease.

This news release may contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A full discussion of Cephalon's operations and financial condition, including factors that may affect the company's business and future prospects, is contained in documents the company files with the SEC, such as form 10-Q and 10-K reports. These documents identify important factors that could cause the company's actual performance to differ from current expectations.


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To: synchro who wrote (1042)4/6/1998 9:43:00 AM
From: Mr. Giller
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Does anyone know what is going on with the drug approval of Myotrophin? is the fact that the fda cancelled the meeting a positive or a negative point? the news release is sufficiently vague that it can be read in a very negative light... and the stock price is sure reflecting this, but I have my hopes for the opposite!

Best luck to all

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To: carrngc who wrote (1043)4/6/1998 9:55:00 AM
From: Mr. Giller
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I have just been in touch with someone at IR in CEPH. They are just as unclear whether this is going one way or the other. The final decision will take place by May 9th this is not a final decision by far. Ceph is just as unclear (it so appears anyway from my phone conversation)of what this means. I believe those who speculate this will go well should buy those who don't get out and search for cover!

Best wishes to all

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To: Mr. Giller who wrote (1045)4/6/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: Keith Fauci
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What other drugs do they have nearing completion?

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To: Mr. Giller who wrote (1045)4/6/1998 4:24:00 PM
From: Doug
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It is unusual for a Stock to shed prior an FDA call unless results are
antispated. It could be that those odds are based on past performance.!

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To: Doug who wrote (1047)4/16/1998 1:37:00 PM
From: tom jones
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To all: Jim McCamant was on KWHY-TV Los Angeles today and said he expects May to be a supper month for Chiron. I didn't hear why, so maybe someone else has heard his reasons why and can let us all know.
Tom

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