SiliconInvestor
     Advanced Search   [ sign in ]

sponsor
Sponsor

 Strategies & Market Trends | E-Wave and TA Workspace

Previous 10 | Next 10 
To: architect* who wrote (197110)3/30/2012 3:24:38 PM
From: robert b furman   of 203083
 
Probably getting in trouble by talking time here.

If 1 = 5 and it doesn't have to:

1 of 3 took 4 weeks
3 of 3 took 16 weeks

2 of 3 down took 4 weeks.

If we are in 4 down now it is at most 2 weeks old.

If we are still in 3 up a stag has suggested 3 is now 18 weeks old . ( I hope it is, as a shortest 3 so far is very limiting)

4 down could take us through April.

5 up another 16-18 weeks with out an extension/s would take us into August September on a long wave.

That would be Q3 alright.

I'm shutting up here and not going there.LOL

Bob

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: robert b furman who wrote (197106)3/30/2012 3:53:05 PM
From: TheStag   of 203083
 
Not exactly Bob... my long term EW count is

screencast.com 

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: TheStag who wrote (197112)3/30/2012 3:55:38 PM
From: robert b furman   of 203083
 
HI stag,

Still in 3 up was my point.

Thanks for the chart.

I still like your count.<smile>

velly boolish

Bob

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read

To: robert b furman who wrote (197111)3/30/2012 4:47:09 PM
From: architect*   of 203083
 
3 is now 18 weeks old

That's how I'm invested, hoping - current market valuations are near the top in wave 3.

US equity markets have been stronger than Asian equity markets. Asian markets appreciation off the October lows are higher, using 2012 YTD> India's stock market ETF - IPN, or India small cap SCIF would be up +40% YTD, but Asian stock markets are valued about 15% below their Q1 2011 valuations.

The US equity markets are trading at, or higher than their 2011 valuations. WTIC Oil is also trading at $104 / barrel, the same valuation as a year ago today.

Japan is the king of corrections, Nikkei was 39,000 in 1990's and 10,000 today, what wave is the Nikkei in?

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: architect* who wrote (197114)3/30/2012 5:32:47 PM
From: robert b furman   of 203083
 
Death wave.

Export economy with strong Yen,aging population that relied on cheap nuclear power and must now buy NG,crude and Coal.

Asia hurting from export markets in decline - Europe,Japan, and USA is the strongest and we're soft.

Asia has its own Real Estate bubble.

With domestic consumption the goal to robust economy ,A real estate bubble does not help.

Our cheap energy will end up an ace card - if we aggressively persue it.

Long term but very powerful trend.

Bob

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read

From: mchjc3/31/2012 2:29:21 PM
4 Recommendations   of 203083
 
AAPL update...

On the plus side, the stock made another new ATH on Wed, and the subsequent pullback held as expected at the 597 S area indicated by the earlier congestion area and the apex level of the presumed pennant ..and also held above the low of the preceding low..

However, the foregoing was accompanied by potentially negative short-term developments: ...the new ATH was not confirmed by RSI, thus creating a negative divergence;...expanding volume on Fri was inconsistent with what should normally be seen in a flag/pennant formation...These suggest that a return to UT support may now occur....the first UT (purple), which will stand at about 590 on Mon and is rising at the rate of about 5 points a day...and the second (yellow) which will be about 575 on Mon and rising about 2 or 3 points a day..

In addition, the action over the past 3 weeks now appears to have taken the form of a small bearish rising wedge, which would imply a return to its start at about 578..


In light of the above, I would now consider questionable...and retract...my earlier 680 measured move which was based on the formerly presumed bullish pennant..

Summing up.... the risk of a pullback to as low as 575 here...which btw, would be roughly in line with the rapid 2--day pullbacks seen in mid-Feb and in early Mar...

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (2)

To: mchjc who wrote (197116)3/31/2012 2:36:12 PM
From: robert b furman   of 203083
 
Hi Henry,

Following your MO,with the attached analysis,will you now try to buy as many puts as it takes to cover your total position?

If so at the money or below that uptrend line - such that they protect you below the broken uptrend line?

Thanks in advance.

Bob

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: robert b furman who wrote (197117)3/31/2012 3:21:41 PM
From: mchjc   of 203083
 
My MO....normally, as many as it takes to cover total share position...Short-dated, and at/near the money...That would now indicate May 600s...

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (2)

To: mchjc who wrote (197118)3/31/2012 4:47:41 PM
From: robert b furman   of 203083
 
Thanks Henry,

I gather hopefully on an up moment>

Bob

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read

To: mchjc who wrote (197118)3/31/2012 9:10:14 PM
From: lostfarmer   of 203083
 
Hello Henry & Bob,

Question on your put buying to cover losses should the the underlying stock fall, do you ever sell against your hedge... for instance I see the AAPL May 600 puts are about $30.00,while the May $530 puts are $8.00... my thinking being if you buy the 600's and sell the 530's against them simultaneously you cut your insurance cost by 25% or so and the apple can fall to $522 before you're actually losing on the May 530 which offers room for a 13% drop.

Just wandering and wondering, Lf

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)
Previous 10 | Next 10 

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQ
Copyright © 1995-2013 Knight Sac Media. All rights reserved.