|RRUFF buys all of SI Dinner: .|
He can now afford it!!!!(LFWK)
Posted by: rrufff
In reply to: Creede Bighorns who wrote msg# 4776 Date:12/17/2005 2:49:15 PM
Post #of 8032
I hesitate to post this. For those who know me, I often contact managements. I usually spend a lot of time and have very specific questions, pretty much dealing with issues of capital structure, which I feel is the key in finding the few possible penny stock seedlings midst the forest of scams in this pink penny land. I don’t spend a huge amount of time on actual business plan details and claims as most are too technical to understand and, let’s face it, it’s impossible to determine where results end and hype begins.
I have been accumulating LFWK at now lower and lower prices. I have been perplexed because the trading has not fallen into the typical patterns I see elsewhere of scam dumper and diluters. Yet, the stock has continued to go south. My average cost is now about .0036. I have a nice position, for me, at this time and will buy more if I see positive responses to my requests for transparency.
In any event, I was able to reach Dennis and had a couple of very lengthy conversations, totaling about 45 minutes. Contrary to my expectations, I found him neither curt nor evasive. He was not apologetic. I raised most of the issues raised on this board. As expected, he is perhaps an “artist” with a vision, very devoted to his business and a missionary in many ways. This is his first experience, I believe, in the ways of public companies and he acknowledges “surprises” along the way.
Disclaimer – I always tell CEO’s that I neither expect nor desire any non-public or “insider” information. I’m also not a whiner or complainer because I may have lost money on a stock. I don’t ask, “Why is my stock tanking, you crook?” LOL. Rather, I often give my own perspective and ask if I am on track or not, but this relates to impressions and not specific factual data. I also give my own recommendations and volunteer typical retail shareholder feelings about the company.
The business plan – again – I consider this less useful but, to get it out of the way, everything seems to be moving along well. There are some minor disappointments. For example, the TV program still should be a great PR vehicle, but it’s been slower than hoped.
We talked about margins in the furnishings business, and my own perceptions and fears about reselling many products from a variety of sources. I was impressed with his telling me that I was way off here and that the nature of their business, e.g., well-timed lithos purchases from China, furnishing bought at great prices, etc., foretells a business plan with very large margins. There are synergies that enhance this plan by and between rehab, furnishings, mail order, retail stores, patent, etc.
We talked about issues with respect to real estate, “bubbles,” rehab and I came away convinced that this man knows his business and that there is every reason to believe that LFWK will be an operational success.
Now for the important stuff, at least from my own perspective. I told him that I would like to make this my own top penny pick for the new year but could not without full disclosure as to the share structure. I told him the retail perception was that the tanking of the stock was as a result of insider selling.
He clearly understood my concerns and gave me his own theories on the history.
I don’t have specifics but my own perception is that there is about 80-90 o/s, with 40-60 million closely held, with the float being no larger than about 30 million at this point. Again, this is my own analysis, starting with the disclosures on pinksheets.com and extrapolating after reviewing the trading. I can NOT give any evidence that I am correct and did not get any confirmation or denial when I mentioned those numbers.
I was told that he has not been selling. Rather, I was told, that he and his family or friends had decided to buy shares on the market during the late summer when the stock was in the .30-.40 range. Strangely, this coincides with the period of the first major tanking of the stock if you look at the chart. As his buying led strangely enough to a stock that rapidly tanked, he stopped buying. He was convinced that this must be “naked shorting.” He was determined, at this point, to have operational success beat "them" rather than to issue a lot of fluff PR’s. I wasn’t following the company then so perhaps others may have some feelings here, but I can understand how a CEO might be PO’d when his buying leads to a total tanking of the stock. I might envision and believe any conspiracy theory that was suggested.
I told him that I agree with that approach. I try to avoid the companies that pay touts and issue PR’s, with the touts dumping the shares. I urged him NOT to start with fluff PR’s, that the financing PR was a good tease and that the goal should be transparency with respect to the capital structure and explanation of the business plan financing that was recently PR’d. He agreed with the approach I suggested.
My own perception of the financing, of which has been the target of a couple of “bash” posts, is that it is believable if indeed we have a thriving real estate rehabbing and recycling business. It makes sense to leverage with real estate type lending rather than the dilutive vulture-type financing we all fear and see in most of our penny stocks. I heard nothing in my conversations to deter my own thinking that this was, in fact, the way things would go forward.
The positive “surprise” was no information was given that there has been huge dilution and no “I can’t comment,” on my own perceptions of the capital structure. Again, I hesitate to post because I have not gotten public confirmation of the capital structure, which I requested. I have done my own buying but cannot recommend that others do the same. I can afford the risk and this fits in very nicely with my approach to penny stock investing. It is now my own top pick with HMSG.
We talked about the fact that there is no real market for the stock, that the MM’s are not giving “real” quotes, merely matching or at least pretending to match trades. I urged him to get whatever information together was necessary to facilitate MM filing under Rule 2-11 with the NASD and to actively support the stock. I reiterated that I am firmly against paid touts, as well as the paying, what amounts to “bribes” to MM’s, etc., all of which leads in my opinion to dumping and dilution. I urged full disclosure of the capital structure. I argued that there is “nothing to lose” if my own perception is true, given the posts I’ve seen about dilution and dumping, as this stock would be a huge gainer based on the capital structure. Instead of the typical ½ penny stock company with billions of shares outstanding, we may possibly have a company with significant revenues and even earnings with the capital structure of a microcap or even small cap. I argued that it is much easier to “dump” and raise money, make acquisitions when the stock is at .50, rather than at .005.
Bottom line is that I got no indication that my perceptions were wrong. I also got no absolute confirmation that I was right and so my hesitation in posting. I figured I could save some time for others here and that one should either “take a shot” or sell and move on. My own view is that compared to the universe of pink penny and subs that I follow, this one is almost exponentially better, such that I decided to do my own buying. That being said, I always consider any of my sub-penny holdings as being “scam potential,” and I can easily afford a total loss here. I feel exactly the way I felt when I bought HISC at .0015 earlier. At that time, I was perplexed at the trading, in many ways similar to the trading here.
Finally, the “too good to be true” test that I use in my own decision making. How can I explain a stock that shows a history of tanking from .40 to less than 1/100th of that? On top of that, the CEO claims that he bought and did not sell his shares as part of that tanking? Then we have claims of huge financing that should not dilute? How about these private entities ala EKWX? (I did not have that information and did not ask about them, but do feel there is a distinction between LFWK and EKWX scenarios.)
The latter 2 issues are believable. I have some experience in the real estate area and know that, if true, the numbers are highly leveraged, with huge opportunities in both dynamic and niche markets. The numbers already on file show a difference, at least on the surface, from the EKWX scenario. We already have a filing with revenues and assets. (We don’t have audited statements, but we do have statements that could be the basis of SEC violations if they are misleading. So, I give them credence, but that’s my own opinion.)
The tanking is either insider selling or MM naked shorting. It’s a truism. I don’t see anything else. There is no massive retail shorting here. Heck, there isn’t even an intelligent 2 line basher to be found yet. My own inclination, after our conversations, is to believe him. By believing him, I am assuming that MM’s somehow found out that he was buying, saw a relative newbie CEO that could be hustled a bit and decided to aggressively naked short the stock. Note, I did ask if it was possible for shares to be issued, without his knowledge, and he said he didn’t see how that was possible. Having seen BCIT, I know that anything is possible. So, again, my own hesitation in posting. Dennis could have been honest with me, I could perceive him as such, and yet, does this preclude manipulation or fraud? I also have received endless posts that MM’s are wonderful, altruists, who never manipulate, who are just doing their job, would never naked short for more than absolutely necessary (in this case a few seconds given matching trades), so don’t bother debating me on this. This is my own opinion and I choose to believe Dennis. It wouldn’t have taken a huge commitment in resources to have shorted back in August from what I see. But, I’ve been wrong before and will be wrong again. We won’t know for sure until see the actual share structure. At that point, everything changes including the price.
I apologize for the long and unwieldy post.