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To: Big Dog who started this subject9/20/2004 8:43:45 PM
From: quehubo   of 179038
 
One land driller has been on a tear. Who's next?

stockcharts.com 

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To: Big Dog who started this subject9/20/2004 9:01:36 PM
From: tom pope   of 179038
 
Is the writer terminally dumb? From the NYT:

MOSCOW, Sept. 20 - Yukos, the Russian oil giant, is playing a weak hand well in its battle with the Kremlin by cutting its oil shipments to China ahead of a meeting between leaders of the countries this week, analysts said on Monday.

(snip)

Analysts say the Yukos move humiliates the Kremlin at a crucial juncture.

"Yukos is doing this now because it hits Russia where it hurts," Michael Lelyveld, senior adviser for the PFC Energy consulting group, said in an interview.

While only marginally important to Yukos's bottom line, the export cuts to China are a serious embarrassment to Russia's president, Vladimir V. Putin, who in recent weeks pledged to allies and the international community that Russia would not disrupt oil exports to global markets

Putin has made it very clear that he will take strong action against anybody who crosses him. How can humiliating Putin be equated with "playing a weak hand well"?

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To: Big Dog who started this subject9/20/2004 9:16:29 PM
From: Sweet Ol' John   of 179038
 
As I looked over my charts of E&P's I notice that many of them appear to be completing EW 1 up and getting ready to start the EW 2 correction wave. They are all looking overbought and the MACDs are confirming the likelihood of a correction.

NG futures took a big jump today. So I guess the E&Ps need to consolidate are rest up for the winter climb that is always precipitated by worries a but NG storage and etc.

Best to all,

JRH

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (35171)9/20/2004 9:43:46 PM
From: Bruce L   of 179038
 
You couldn't leave it alone, could you Elroy?

Que tells you politely - as he tells all other violators - that political discussion is not wanted on this thread. You -believing that you are just the cleverest person around - proceed to insult him. Even though I think we were Cal classmates, my only message to you was that you are a very pompous blowhard. Also, that if you want to debate these topics on another thread, I am very willing to oblige.

Russian history has never been a particular focus of mine; but since you ask, I will tell you this: THERE WERE NO RIOTS IN MOSCOW IN 1914; as in ALL European capitals in August of that year, there was wild enthusiasm at the announcement of war: happy throngs of people, citizens lining up to enlist, girls kissing troops entraining for the front etc.

Bruce

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To: Sweet Ol' John who wrote (35178)9/20/2004 9:43:57 PM
From: quehubo   of 179038
 
Equities have priced in a reasonable bullish expectation going forward. A regrouping here before launching upward would not be hard to believe. Of course under the present circumstances I doubt many will be willing to sell these stocks down much without finding plenty of buyers.

Some preliminary energy weather forecasts are calling for a colder than normal Oct-December.

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To: Bruce L who wrote (35179)9/20/2004 9:52:06 PM
From: Elroy Jetson   of 179038
 
I'm so sorry to let you know that there were riots in the streets of Moscow in late 1914, complete with Cossack police beating the participants with sticks. My Grandfather saw their neighbor get shot in the head with a stray shot while the man was standing on his third-floor balcony.

Perhaps you were too young at the time to remember this clearly.

Incidentally, I sent an email to a Greek friend in Australia with a copy of your silly comments that the Greek community in Melbourne didn't sping into existence because so many Greeks left Greece in 1967 due to the take-over by the right-wing Junta. To quote her exact words, "What sort of naff idiot made that comment."

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To: excardog who wrote (35172)9/20/2004 10:43:40 PM
From: Frank   of 179038
 
Scott --what we do know is the MMS number captures only a portion of lost NG production. I am very interested in these pipelines out of service. Can these losses be made up easily? What I do know is Ivan has disrupted a very fragile and complex energy delivery system. Only time (not MMS) will tell how significant these disruptions have been --but Robry's numbers and the EIA will give us a glimpse within 72 hours --Frank

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To: tom pope who wrote (35177)9/21/2004 12:15:26 AM
From: Elroy Jetson   of 179038
 
There's another possible explanation for Yukos cutting off oil exports.

Some have suggested that Russia is not currently producing enough oil to supply both domestic needs and export commitments. Suppose Putin desires to cut off exports to first fill domestic needs. Wouldn't it be very convenient to blame this on Khodorkovsky by making the cutbacks through Yukos?

The reason I suggest this is that Khodorkovsky signed over his Yukos stock to the government to settle the tax lien against him. So he has no legal authority to tell Yukos to do anything - not that the niceties of official paperwork always counts for much in Russia. Plus I don't know how many board meetings Khodorkovsky is holding in prison.

Rather than "playing a weak hand well" perhaps Putin is playing Khodorkovsky's hand for him while he's away from the table.

Message 20547148

Is the writer terminally dumb? From the NYT:
MOSCOW, Sept. 20 - Yukos, the Russian oil giant, is playing a weak hand well in its battle with the Kremlin by cutting its oil shipments to China ahead of a meeting between leaders of the countries this week, analysts said on Monday.

(snip)

Analysts say the Yukos move humiliates the Kremlin at a crucial juncture.

"Yukos is doing this now because it hits Russia where it hurts," Michael Lelyveld, senior adviser for the PFC Energy consulting group, said in an interview.

While only marginally important to Yukos's bottom line, the export cuts to China are a serious embarrassment to Russia's president, Vladimir V. Putin, who in recent weeks pledged to allies and the international community that Russia would not disrupt oil exports to global markets

Putin has made it very clear that he will take strong action against anybody who crosses him. How can humiliating Putin be equated with "playing a weak hand well"?

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To: Big Dog who started this subject9/21/2004 7:32:11 AM
From: quehubo   of 179038
 
Damn Ivan seems to have taken away a good chance for decent sell off this Fall. I was hoping for a max margin opportunity off of some support, but I will have to rest with 15% cash and limited to some calls Oct calls on ESV and Nov PXD.

A little further down on NBR and some calls may be in order.

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To: quehubo who wrote (35184)9/21/2004 8:23:37 AM
From: MWitte   of 179038
 
"Damn Ivan seems to have taken away a good chance for decent sell off this Fall." ...one of the problems inherent in market timing, it seems to me...

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