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From: CommanderCricket5/7/2012 12:35:50 PM
   of 186235
 
Short UAL Jun 25 calls. 1/2 position and will sell more tomorrow depending on the action.


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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (168128)5/7/2012 12:37:23 PM
From: Jim P.
   of 186235
 
We will find out soon. I managed to buy a lot of SD at $7 this morning. Too tempting of a price IMO.

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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (168133)5/7/2012 12:53:05 PM
From: Salt'n'Peppa
2 Recommendations   of 186235
 
Good trade CC.
UAL action is insane today. People must only be looking at oil prices when buying UAL stock.

At $24 and the top of its trading range, what upside is there when they lose hundred of millions per quarter?
They just announced major capex with a big 737 purchase which will show up in their 2012 bottom line. They aren't even buying the fuel efficient 787 that they were touting a while ago as a big money saver.
UAL is a great short at $24 but we may yet get chance to short it at $26!

S&P

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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (168133)5/7/2012 2:15:30 PM
From: The Reaper
   of 186235
 
Would it be just too much to ask for CIE to have a green day?

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To: The Reaper who wrote (168136)5/7/2012 2:38:39 PM
From: not_prudent
   of 186235
 
It'll prolly fill a few gaps first.

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From: riskyinvesting5/7/2012 3:53:15 PM
7 Recommendations   of 186235
 
SD - I keep hearing that Tom Ward is going to buy another private Gulf operator. I understand his reason for purchasing Dynamic, but it makes me nervous. The 3 top people left Dynamic. As far as I know, Tom has no experience off-shore. Operating in the Gulf is a very different world. I owned Riata as a private many years ago before Malone Mitchell sold out to Tom. To think SD was once a $70 stock. As I remember, Tom bought a bunch in the $30's. You do have to give him credit for making the switch to oil ahead of most. The Miss. play is a monster. $7 is very tempting. I am going to wait and see if they do another deal. If they do, my guess is that the stock takes a hit.

MHR is another stock that has gotten clocked because management said one thing and did then did something different. I haven't reviewed the recent purchase so I don't know if it was a good deal. I remember being told by management that they would not issue equity. Today they are saying that they did what they had to do. There is a reason that Gary Evans has a somewhat checkered reputation.

My few shares of HDY didn't work so well! Oh well. I actually think the company is in better shape now than a year ago. The market clearly does not think so.

FXEN is closing in on TD at their Kutno well. We still have a few months. They need a bigger rig! If Kutno hits, FXEN will see a big move.

Coastal (CENJF) is my current favorite. They added $50 million in cash last month and are now $40 million net positive cash on the BS. BBS actually turned out OK. They got crushed when the first well didn't hit. It looks to me that they got about 70% of expectations. The eocene is the wild card and we will have to wait for a test there. I would not be surprised if the results are similar to the best shale oil plays in the US. They are moving back the BBN for production drilling. I think the second MOPU is on line by summers end. My guess is they exit the year with 28-30K BOED and between 170-200 million of 2P. We know the company is built to sell. My guess is a price range of $28-30. To bad options don't trade.

My MMR pick for the contest is not looking so good. DJ1 is one expensive well. The skin damage issue is a serious one. Shiller on the EXXI call is now talking about a flow rate of 20 or so. It looks like Jim Bob's earlier statements about flowing at pipe capacity are no longer valid. I give MMR credit for pushing the limits in the Gulf, though it is far from clear whether shareholders will benefit. I have heard that Lee Copperman's folks think there is $15 of value today in MMR. The market certainly doesn't think so.

Has anyone looked at Ocean Rig (ORIG) It looks like a cheap way to play the deep water.

Risky

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To: t4texas who wrote (168131)5/8/2012 4:58:22 AM
From: elmatador
   of 186235
 
YPF: more like Norway’s Statoil
May 7, 2012 8:05 pm by Jude Webber


Miguel Galuccio, the newly appointed boss of Argentina’s newly nationalised YPF, is a man with a plan.

Within 100 days, he promises to have ready a five-year plan, complete with production and exploration goals. The aim, according to pro-government newspaper Tiempo Argentina, is to turn YPF into a kind of Argentine version of Norway’s Statoil.

As Galuccio told workers in Comodoro Rivadavia, the southern city that saw the birth of Argentina’s oil industry a century ago, in his first public function as chief executive:

We have a concrete plan to be the first world expert in the rejuvenation of marginal fields, leader in the development of unconventional resources, exporters of professional services for the development of downstream projects in all Latin America.

The first of those aims is important – Argentina has many mature fields, with declining production. The second is crucial: it is home to what are believed to be the world’s third-biggest reserves of shale hydrocarbons, and YPF has discovered huge reserves in the Vaca Muerta formation in the western province of Neuquén.

How will he achieve his aims? Like this, Galucci says:

We are going to generate a new culture of values like meritocracy, goal-based results, open communication, integrity, team work, attitude and, most importantly, health, safety and environment.

It promises to be a busy first 100 days for the 44-year-old petroleum engineer. It is shaping up also to be a litigious time. Repsol on Monday sent letters to oil companies including ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, warning them it would sue if they sought to invest in YPF or its assets

Argentina also faces imminent – although as yet unspecified - action from the European Union against its expropriation of YPF from Repsol of Spain.

Karel De Gucht, the EU trade commissioner, said in a speech in Brussels: “We will soon be moving forward with a response to Argentina’s action in the Repsol case.”

Galucci has a good track record and reputation. He will have to deliver fast to a government hungry for results and a population that overwhelmingly supports having YPF back in state hands.

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To: Salt'n'Peppa who wrote (163992)5/8/2012 7:08:50 AM
From: elmatador
   of 186235
 
As Car Owners Downsize, the Market Is Strong for Their Used S.U.V.’s

Car dealerships have many customers like David King, who traded in his 2007 Chevrolet Tahoe in late April because filling its 26-gallon tank with $4 gasoline had become so expensive. He now drives a Chevrolet Volt 25 miles each way to work, where he can charge the plug-in hybrid so it rarely uses any gas.




But the old gas guzzlers don’t just disappear when their owners give them up. Many are quickly bought by someone else, sometimes before the dealer even has a chance to clean them up and put a for-sale sign in the window.


Mike Mayhan, a sales manager at the Victory Automotive Group, the Alabama dealership that took Mr. King’s Tahoe, predicted that the black sport utility vehicle would not last long. “I have people waiting to get one, so they turn around pretty fast,” he said.

That is because dealerships also are getting more customers like Jason Frank, who said he was thrilled with the 2003 Ford Explorer he just bought, even though “the gas mileage is kind of depressing.” Mr. Frank and his fiancée each drive more fuel-efficient cars for work, but neither of those vehicles can fit their two large dogs, carry their mountain bikes and pull a boat for weekend trips.

“It’s basically our extra vehicle just to use for our fun stuff,” said Mr. Frank, 28, an information technology manager at a bank in Chesterfield, Va. “We just got it because it fits our needs and it’s very versatile.”

In 2008, when gas prices first reached $4 a gallon, Americans could not trade in their hulking trucks and S.U.V.’s fast enough, and the castoffs piled up at dealerships as their value seemingly plunged by the hour. A year later, hundreds of thousands of additional gas guzzlers were sent to scrap yards through the government’s cash-for-clunkers program.

But today, in spite of high gas prices and low fuel economy ratings, big S.U.V.’s are no longer the pariahs of the used-car lot. Dealers and analysts say demand for the vehicles is steady and inventories are low, causing their values to stabilize or even increase.

Retail prices for five-year-old full-size S.U.V.’s are 23 percent higher than a year ago, according to Edmunds.com, an automotive information Web site. That is more than double the average price increase of 11 percent for all five-year-old vehicles. Prices for three-year-old S.U.V.’s are up 6 percent, triple the 2 percent average increase for all vehicles that age.

In recent months, large S.U.V.’s and crossover vehicles have also accounted for a larger percentage of the used-vehicle market, according to Kelley Blue Book, another research firm. They made up 4.5 percent of sales this year and 4.2 percent of sales in 2011, up from 3.8 percent in 2008.

Alec Gutierrez, Kelley’s senior market analyst of automotive insights, said consumers were reacting to gas prices more rationally than in 2008, when some hurriedly bought vehicles that turned out to be too small for their lifestyles. Although S.U.V.’s no longer sell just for their image, people still want them if they have three or more children, need greater cargo capacity or want to tow a trailer, and more of those buyers are coming back into the market after putting off a purchase during the recession.

“A lot of people with larger families or whatever have just swallowed that gas prices are what they are and there’s not much you can do about them,” said George Fussell Jr., a director at AOW Select, which operates two large used-car dealerships near Fort Lauderdale, Fla. “They’re not buying them for looks. They’re buying them because they need them.”

Even though automakers have made big vehicles more fuel-efficient in recent years, the lower upfront cost of a used S.U.V. appeals to some buyers who need something large. For example, the 2013 Ford Explorer with a 4-cylinder EcoBoost engine gets 28 miles per gallon in highway driving, compared with 18 miles per gallon for a 2003 Explorer. But the new Explorer has a sticker price of more than $30,000, while the Kelly Blue Book retail value for the 10-year-old model is about $8,100.

“You’re going to pay a little bit of a penalty in fuel economy, but ultimately the savings are going to make up for that fuel-economy hit,” Mr. Gutierrez said. “Still, I don’t think you’re going out t



Skip Geniapp, a bookstore manager and audio engineer in Ooltewah, Tenn., said he paid little attention to fuel economy ratings while browsing used-car lots last month. He wanted an S.U.V. with three rows of seats because he and his wife have two adopted children and two foster children.



“I’m not in the school of thought that says I should go get a newer, smaller, fuel-efficient car, where I’m saving pennies per gallon but I’m carrying a $450-a-month car payment,” he said. “The price of gas doesn’t affect me that much if I don’t have a car payment.”

The drop in new-vehicle sales during the recession means there are fewer two- and three-year-old vehicles on the market, pushing up used-car values across all segments. The availability of S.U.V.’s from the late 1990s and early 2000s was further reduced by the cash-for-clunkers program, which has helped prop up their values.

That is good news for consumers who held onto their gas guzzlers during the recession and now want to trade up. Dealers also benefit because, even though they might have to offer more money to get a trade-in, they can feel confident that the S.U.V.’s they take will not just languish in the back corner of the lot.

“If it’s been well taken care of and it’s a good, clean car, there’s certainly a market for it,” said Brad Schiller, the general manager of Huntington Ford in Rochester Hills, Mich.

Mr. King, the Alabama man who traded in his Tahoe for a Volt, said he was pleasantly surprised by how much he received for the trade-in. Although buying the Volt was more expensive than paying for gas, he said he preferred to put his money toward a new, more efficient car.

“I was spending between $400 and $500 on gas every month for my Tahoe, and I thought, ‘There’s got to be a better way,’ “ said Mr. King, co-owner of an accounting firm.

But even though an S.U.V. no longer fit his needs, he decided to buy a two-year-old Jeep Wrangler for his teenage son at the same time. Gas mileage was not as big an issue in that case because his son will not drive the car as far, Mr. King said.

Besides, he added, “he’s going to be responsible for the gas, so he’ll be getting some important life lessons.”

o buy a used Tahoe or Expedition because you want to drive it every day to work 30 or 40 miles away.”

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To: dvdw© who wrote (168096)5/8/2012 7:50:42 AM
From: Brasco One
1 Recommendation   of 186235
 
dvdw we went after FOSL big last week, look at it this morning. easy money.

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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (167910)5/8/2012 9:09:57 AM
From: Dennis Roth
2 Recommendations   of 186235
 
COLUMN-Liquids-rich natgas shale frenzy creates new glut-Campbell

uk.reuters.com
Mon May 7, 2012 6:26pm BSTA FOUNDATION OF SAND

( Robert Campbell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

By Robert Campbell

NEW YORK May 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas drillers, stung by decade-low gas prices, have flooded into so-called liquids-rich plays, but the surge in natural gas liquids (NGLs) output that was meant to salvage profitability is leading to a new glut.

Big shale gas drillers, including Chesapeake Energy and EnCana, have pivoted away from "dry" shale gas plays like the Haynesville Shale in Louisiana, in favor of shales that hold liquids as well as natural gas, such as Texas' Eagle Ford Shale.

Proponents of liquids-rich drilling point out that NGLs command prices similar to those of crude oil instead of natural gas. However, the movement of the herd into liquids-rich drilling is undermining that idea.

Prices for the main NGLs -- ethane, propane and natural gasoline -- have plummeted in recent weeks as surging supplies run up against the limits to North American demand.

Propane at the Mont Belvieu, Texas market hub has sunk to an unprecedented discount to Brent crude oil of more than $70 a barrel.

A similar, but less dramatic, fall in natural gasoline prices can also be seen. Natural gasoline, a term that encompasses the heaviest natural gas liquids, now trades more than $20 a barrel below Brent crude.

Production of NGLs at U.S. natural gas treatment plants has jumped by nearly 40 percent since January 2009 to hit 2.388 million barrels per day in February this year, the most recent government data shows.

The bulk of this increase is coming in the hardest-hit parts of the NGL complex: lighter products such as ethane and propane.

The main problem NGL producers face is a slow-growing domestic market and limited opportunities to export production.

Although U.S. petrochemicals firms and other industrial users are retooling to replace crude-oil-derived inputs in favor of NGLs, this is a process that takes years.

Similarly, terminals where NGLs are chilled or compressed for loading onto special tankers are being expanded to boost exports, but capacity growth here too is slow.

Certainly, such bottlenecks present major business opportunities for nimble firms.

But overproduction means many of the economic gains will likely end up being captured by midstream and downstream firms and those companies that are big enough, and rich enough, to take on the cost of moving cheap, liquids-rich gas to market.

For instance, petrochemicals producers such as Dow Chemical and Royal Dutch Shell are banking on cheap NGLs to support the business cases for a swath of new ethylene cracking capacity.

A significant rise in the cost of ethane would probably result only in the cancellation of some crackers' construction, undermining the case for higher ethane prices.

Similarly, moves to expand NGL export capacity are likely to benefit the main infrastructure holders.

Enterprise Products Partners and Targa Resources are increasing export capacity from Texas but what they add will probably fall short of demand and likely be controlled by contract shippers.

So in that sense, the market at Mont Belvieu understates, in many ways, the extent of the problem for NGL producers.

In the field, many gas producers are struggling to get liquids-rich streams onto pipelines to move their output to major fractionation centers.

Once there, fractionation space is limited, forcing producers to accept lower prices to gain access to capacity.

Such tumbling prices have huge implications for the North American natural gas industry. In many ways, liquids-rich shales are both a blessing and a curse for natural gas.

On the one hand, NGLs are rescuing hard-hit gas drillers by rebuilding revenue streams shattered by plunging natural gas prices.

But on the other hand, NGLs are perpetuating the natural gas glut. Due to the higher prices received for NGLs, producers have been able to ignore low natural gas prices.

In essence, when NGL volumes determine the profitability of a well, the natural gas produced is effectively "free", making drillers indifferent to low natural gas prices.

That, of course, is one reason why U.S. natural gas output has not slowed as fast as some companies might have liked.

But the NGL glut is showing the limits to this strategy. By oversupplying the relatively small and inflexible NGL market, producers are cutting themselves off at the knees.

Gas bulls should welcome this. Ultimately, cheap NGLs will force drillers to do what they don't want to do: idle rigs on gas-prone plays.

The shakeout is likely to be painful as pricy leases are relinquished and rigs shifted further to searching for crude oil. But if so, that will bring about the long-awaited slowdown in natural gas production growth.

A bottom in the propane market could well mark a bottom in the natural gas market. (Editing by Dale Hudson)

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