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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (167891)5/1/2012 2:23:36 PM
From: elmatador
2 Recommendations   of 198386

Why High Oil Prices are Here to Stay

On May 3rd I will be delivering a talk called Moving Beyond Oil Dependence as a part of UC Santa Barbara’s Spring 2012 Chemical Engineering Seminar Series. The talk will roughly follow the outline of my book, and I have used several graphics from the book in the presentation.

However, I created a couple of graphics specifically for this presentation that I believe explain the majority of the oil price escalation over the past decade. True, part of the price rise may be due to speculation, but the following two graphics show just how robust demand has been even in the face of $100 oil. The data source for both graphics is the 2011 BP Statistical Review of World Energy:

Figure 1. Oil demand in Asia Pacific (minus Japan) from 2000 to 2010.
This graphic shows that despite the quadrupling in the price of Brent crude over the decade (and I used Brent crude because it is more representative than West Texas Intermediate of what Asia pays for crude), regional demand in Asia Pacific’s developing countries still grew by 7 million barrels per day. (Demand in Japan — one of Asia Pacific’s developed countries — fell by 1.1 million bpd over the decade).

So when we wonder why gasoline prices haven’t fallen in the U.S. even though U.S. consumption has been declining for several years, that graphic supplies part of the answer. The 1.5 million barrel decline in U.S. demand in the past five years is far less than the demand growth in developing countries, and oil production has not managed to keep pace.

The following graphic shows that this trend is taking place all over the world:

Figure 2. Explosive demand growth occurred in every developing region.
So while the developing countries in Asia Pacific saw a nearly 50% increase in consumption — amounting to 7 million barrels — it wasn’t even the fastest growing region. That distinction belongs to the Middle East, which added 56% to their oil consumption between 2000 and 2010. The Middle East’s total increase in consumption was smaller than that of Asia Pacific at just under 3 million barrels per day, but that is primarily a function of the relative populations of the regions. OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia saw the strongest demand growth in the region. This is understandable considering that the high price of oil brought a huge influx of cash into oil exporting countries, and wealthy countries tend to increase their oil consumption.

This is why — even if we take peak oil completely out of the equation — I don’t ever foresee a sustained return to cheap oil. There are many who have placed most of the blame for increased oil prices on speculation, but those two graphics explain why I believe the issue has far more to do with fundamentals.

Link to Original Article: Why High Oil Prices are Here to Stay

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From: elmatador5/1/2012 2:29:39 PM
   of 198386
Global food price rise on costlier oil-World Bank

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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (166336)5/1/2012 4:29:37 PM
From: zen_lunatic420
   of 198386
SARA: Heavy volume the past few days at the $7+ range, it looks like a healthy consolidation and a possible break out coming IMO. Previously, this much volume would have got the stock moving more than it has, so I assume Wyzanta is selling, there's not many others with big enough positions to supply so many shares IMO.

Have you reviewed their IPAA OGIS New York Presentation? (top link on heir homepage):

I really like Slide 14 of that presentation that shows their production curve with a big spike over 4,500 BOEPD starting in mid-March! ....I guess maybe that's what's attracted the recent buyers.

Are you still in SARA here Ed?

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From: JimisJim5/1/2012 5:52:39 PM
4 Recommendations   of 198386
Coastal Energy Announces Successful Appraisal Wells at Bua Ban South

Coastal Energy Announces Successful Appraisal Wells at Bua Ban South

HOUSTON, May 1, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Coastal Energy Company (the "Company"
or "Coastal") (TSX:CEN) (AIM:CEO) announces the successful results of the Bua
Ban South A-03ST and A-05 wells.

The Bua Ban South A-05 well was drilled to a depth of 3,525 feet TVD
approximately 1,650 feet to the east of the A-04 well. The well encountered 20
feet of net pay across two Miocene zones with average porosity of 29%, based
on evaluation of downhole logs. The A-05 is downdip from the A-04, and moved
the lowest known oil down by 50 feet in the Miocene. The oil water contact was
not encountered in either zone at this location, and further appraisal wells
will be required to delineate the areal extent of this field. MDT data
indicate that the oil water contact could be materially lower than depths at
which the current wells have penetrated the Miocene interval.

The Bua Ban South A-03ST was drilled to a depth of 9,700 feet TVD. The well
encountered 31 feet of net pay in the Lower Oligocene with 15% porosity, based
on log analysis. The A-03ST is approximately 5,700 feet to the north of the
Bua Ban South A-01 Oligocene discovery. The well encountered 325 feet of
reservoir in the Eocene with 11% porosity. It has been cased and will be
utilized to test a multi-stage fracturing program once production facilities

Randy Bartley, President & Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"We are extremely pleased with the results of both of these wells. Now that we
have confirmed the commerciality based on expected recoverable resources of
both the Miocene and Oligocene plays at Bua Ban South we have purchased
production facilities which will arrive in the third quarter of this year. We
are going to return the rig to Bua Ban North and drill horizontal development
wells and water injection wells until the MOPU is on location at Bua Ban
South, after which time we will proceed with further appraisal drilling.

"Our offshore production is holding steady at 21,700 bopd. We expect rates to
return to and exceed previous levels once we begin drilling the additional
development and injection wells at Bua Ban North. We have also received our
permit to drill up to 10 additional wells at Songkhla A and plan to return
there later in the year."

Randy Bartley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company and a
member of the Society of Petroleum Engineering, and Jerry Moon, Vice
President, Technical & Business Development, a member of the American
Association of Petroleum Geologists, a Certified Petroleum Geologist and a
Licensed Professional Geoscientist in the state of Texas, have reviewed the
contents of this announcement.

Additional information, including the Company's complete competent person's
report may be found on the Company's website at or may
be found in documents filed on SEDAR at

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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (167888)5/1/2012 7:15:10 PM
From: Sweet Ol
1 Recommendation   of 198386
Well, BC, the waves are murky, to say the least.

I can find wave counts that support almost any hypothesis regarding the market's direction. At this point I am bi-directional<ggg>

Tomorrow's market action may eliminate some of the possibilities.

In the meantime I remain mostly cash with some oil royalty trust (LINE) for the distributions to buy groceries.

The direction of POO is also somewhat unclear to me. However, the earlier post of the remarks by that super egotistic professor made a lot of sense. The price of POO will maximize the national income of the OPEC countries seems to be a likely explanation and supports my investments in royalty trusts.

Natty went bonkers the last couple of days and so did HGT and SJT. Too bad I am not back in them!

If I ever get any confidence in my wave reading I will post a chart or two.



P.S. These 80 degree days have really helped my golf game. Today the wind was gusting to 30+ and I hit a massive drive down wind and then on the return up wind I hit one of my best ever low stingers that got me two successive "atta boys" for my drives - for the first time this year. Of course, the long knocker in our group was having his worst day of the year, but it was fun not being the first one to his his second shot.

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To: Keith J who wrote (167859)5/1/2012 8:52:29 PM
From: Robohogs
   of 198386
In keeping with the theme in the post leading up to your post, this is my blow up du jour. It was very bad at the opening yesterday but has moderated somewhat. I think my overall count was only down something like 1 to 2% yesterday, and up for the two days ending today and that is with another blow up to day. I remain convinced that be BKS has no longer-term value. The move by Microsoft is purely strategic and imputes the value from a small stake to the whole company for other buyers. That being said, the call pricing was very stubborn in the days leading up to the transaction even as the stock fell. Somebody clearly knew something. Oh well, you win some and you lose some. I have definitely had my share of losers in recent weeks. I typically catch a really bad trade about once per quarter maybe a little more often or maybe a little less often, depending on luck. The key is being able to survive such mistakes. BKS was marginally too big.

Thanks Keith.


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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (167881)5/1/2012 9:28:55 PM
From: Covenant
   of 198386
The only thing worth watching are the results of the Cameia-2 well in late June.

The Ligurian well with the disappointments today has the Miocene sands later this month. Positive findings there will add a second pay zone to Heidelburg. Conversely, a disappointment will cause a buck or two of downside. The two catalysts in the remaining two months of the second quarter give trading opportunities. The second half of the year is when the news flow drops off.

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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (167867)5/1/2012 9:35:45 PM
From: Robohogs
   of 198386
How did WFR contribute to your October massacre? It's always been one of the stocks in the sctor that I follow a bit. I am still not convinced it turns here. Thoughts?


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To: RevoltNapper6 who wrote (167872)5/1/2012 9:38:51 PM
From: Robohogs
   of 198386
BTU with half of its supply from the far east and hence lower costs to China is the best play in the sector. CNX can also be used if one is unsure whether coal or natural gas is better. There is quite a heated debate on the coalnatural gas interplay over on Seeking Alpha. A vocal short, Santos, is battling with some sector longs.


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To: Robohogs who wrote (167899)5/1/2012 9:45:15 PM
From: Bearcatbob
1 Recommendation   of 198386
WFR is one of my historic mistakes that I have kept on the books by pushing the short puts out into the future. In August WFR was around $7. It promptly feel to five - bounced - and fell some more. My memory is that WFR was well rated by S&P (I think it was 4 Stars for a long time) which is provided to me via Fidelity. That plus the good premiums sucked me in.

It now is what it is. It seems to be bottoming and I occasionally see positive recommendations on it. If I get assigned the puts I will sell near the money calls and hope to get called. I am not going to buy back the puts as I do not need to free up the margin they require.

The damn thing is a solar company. I of all people should have known better. I would not touch it as a new play.


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