SI
SI
discoversearch

 Gold/Mining/Energy | Big Dog's Boom Boom Room


Previous 10 | Next 10 
To: CommanderCricket who wrote (166547)3/30/2012 11:07:45 AM
From: Bearcatbob
   of 185461
 
Ah - the beauty of the BPS shows again.

Bob

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (2)

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (166548)3/30/2012 11:16:58 AM
From: Salt'n'Peppa
1 Recommendation   of 185461
 
"Ah - the beauty of the BPS shows again."
Only if chasing the front month Bob.

My Jun35 (written in Dec) and Jun40 puts (written in Jan) are still performing very well and I gave up no protection money.
Admittedly, the Apr50's are now about $3K underwater with the IOC pps at $47, but if assigned, my average pps is only $47 anyway.

Different strokes for different folks.
S&P

[edit] It looks like it will be a 2-3 million share day for IOC, or more. I wonder how many shorts will be covering today? This was a gift to them all.

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

From: Bearcatbob3/30/2012 11:20:54 AM
   of 185461
 
I am sitting in waiting room of a car dealer waiting for a warranty repair. I have taken the time to listen to the Howard Weil conference presentations of both EXXI and MMR. If anyone has an hour or so I recommend the exercise. I must admit I am a sucker for this play. The EXXI is a wonderful story.

Bob

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (2)


To: Salt'n'Peppa who wrote (166549)3/30/2012 11:34:53 AM
From: Bearcatbob
   of 185461
 
Salty, Eventually the out month becomes the near month.

Bob

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (166538)3/30/2012 11:37:37 AM
From: architect*
3 Recommendations   of 185461
 
"cash flow valuation being much higher than 2P reserves valuation "

I didn't get thru the sendspace download excercise to view the Credit Suisse report, you'll have to provide their numbers.

off the top of my head, Coastal Energy ~

Cash flow basis I'm using 23k bopd 8.2 mmbo / year x $75 / bbl -
CEN funds flow from operations should be $621 million / year on 23k bopd.
CEN is / was producing 26k bopd that would yield $700 million in funds flow from operations.
Using a 3 - 4 times multiple on - funds flow from operations - yields a full valuation of $25 / share.

CEN has about 118 mmbo 2P oil (2012 off-shore oil reserves) X $19 /bbl + $2.2 billion 2P NPV
CEn has about + $500 MM in 2P on-shore gas -
CEN's total 2P NPV = $25 / share .
Discount the 2P NPV and then add back in risked exploration value, and we're back at $25 / share.

Coastal's Gulf of Thailand light oil exploration portfolio has considerable upside if your a long term investor. Huddleston's past reserve reports for Coastal are 240 pages and model all of Coastal's Gulf of Thailand (GOT) off-shore oil prospects in detail. Huddleston was way off on the modleing of the Bua Ban Main oil field. Huddleston modeled about 600 bopd and the Bua Ban Main wells are producing 300 bopd on sustained production.

As far as depletion, Songkhla and Bua Ban North are high flow wells over 1500 bopd, so depletion is probably in the 18 - 22% range. Coastal has considerable 2P - 3P reserves in Buan Ban North to replenish 2012 depletion. At this popint with Bua Ban South not likely to add much to 2012 - 2013 production, 2012 - 2013 production should be in the 8 - 9 million bbls / year range. 118 million barrels of oil produced at 8 million / year has a reserve life of 14 years. Coastal could in theory produce those 118 million barrels at much higher peak production rates than the current production of 26k bopd, even as high as 40k bopd. 40k bopd or 14 million barrels / year, 118 mmbo will sustain 40k bopd for over 8 years. 40k bopd with a $125 / bbl price deck is a lot of cash flowing. IMO, the 118 mmbo of off-shore oil will sustain long term peak production at much higher than the current 26k bopd, same for the on-shore gas, existing gas reserves could be produced at much higher production flow rates, than existing gas production.

Coastal had just started to ramp up production of Bua Ban North when they moved the rig to Bua Ban South for these four exploration wells. Back to Bua Ban N orth to ramp up production. Coastal can increase production flows using horizontal wells which flow 2-3 times more than vertical wells. Horizontal production wells make the 40k bopd doeable, even with high 18% - 22% depletion rates. These GOT production/development wells are inexpensive and quick wells to drill.

Coastal's 2012 Capital Program is budgeted at $250 million and with + $621 million in funds flow from operations, theres no reason why Coastal can not increase their rig count from 1 rig currently up to 2 or 3 rigs during the 2012 - 2013 time period. 2012 will see Coastal working capital increase significantly as 2012 funds flow from opertions will be significantly higher than 2012 Capital Investment.

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (166551)3/30/2012 11:43:08 AM
From: Salt'n'Peppa
1 Recommendation   of 185461
 
Bob,

Yes it does, but with 90% of the premium having already evaporated.
S&P

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read


To: RalphR who wrote (166539)3/30/2012 12:22:43 PM
From: Eric
   of 185461
 
So I doubt that Washington has banned coal from being shipped there.

The State of Washington is getting close to ruling on the application. The Mayor and most of the city council of Bellingham are against it. So it has a big uphill struggle ahead of it. The biggest obstacle is the rail infrastructure. Only one set of tracks up through the Seattle area. (Ballard cut) Those tracks are pretty much maxxed out already.

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (166550)3/30/2012 12:23:29 PM
From: SEDCO 445
   of 185461
 
Bob

Is there a link to it?

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (166550)3/30/2012 12:56:26 PM
From: Bearcatbob
   of 185461
 
ir.energyxxi.com

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (2)


To: Bearcatbob who wrote (166548)3/30/2012 1:21:04 PM
From: CommanderCricket
   of 185461
 
Bob,

I took a look several weeks ago comparing "naked" versus a "covered spread" and came to the conclusion, I was better off being naked on the positions.

Even today with IOC, this sell off didn't cost anything near what a put spread would've cost when the positions were opened. That said, when a position starts to go against you, you had better be able to make a decision quickly.

Michael

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (3)
Previous 10 | Next 10 

Copyright © 1995-2014 Knight Sac Media. All rights reserved.Stock quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes - See Terms of Use.