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From: CommanderCricket3/26/2012 12:54:56 PM
2 Recommendations   of 185528
 
I understand coal is so yesterday but these guys are printing money and growing regardless of what the US market does. Chinese imports up 42% from last and BTU gets half its EBITDA and cask flow from Australia.

BTU presentation from earlier today

peabodyenergy.com

Look at slide 5 - amazing this stock is trading at yearly lows.

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From: Debt Free3/26/2012 12:55:59 PM
1 Recommendation   of 185528
 
ok - you guys talked me into it. :-)

I covered my April MMR calls today. Definitely happy with the trade and will be looking for more trades like that.

Doug

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To: teevee who wrote (166263)3/26/2012 1:29:39 PM
From: upanddown
   of 185528
 
If that is the case, you can expect US oil prices to fall as domestic oil supply increases, resulting in a larger difference between North American oil prices and world oil pricing. Perhaps a better question is to ask if the gov't would restrict the export of US domestic oil into a higher priced off shore oil market?


Well this is where I can't agree. To me, the lower oil prices in US mid-continent are due to lack of pipeline capacity and the Cushing bottleneck. When Seaway is reversed (now scheduled for June 1) and the lower half of Keystone from Cushing to the GOM is completed, I see US prices moving up to get back in sync with world prices.

These are alsoNorth American oil prices. They may not trade on a futures exchange but they represent a big chunk of domestic production.
North Slope crude (medium grade at best) is selling today for $122.
bloomberg.com
The sour - sweet range on the Gulf is $123 - $127
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com

You don't need to export US crude to get world prices. You just need to get it to a place where it can be exported (i.e.GOM) and you will get world prices there.

IMO, future oil prices are going to be dependent on a large number of very complex international factors (and events) that will far outweigh domestic factors like federal leasing activity.

Sure, if increased domestic production continues to decrease imports, that could push down world prices.

To me, the biggest factor in how much Americans will pay at the pump in coming years will be Asian economic growth and the resulting crude demand.

In the end, it is all supply-demand on a worldwide basis.

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To: upanddown who wrote (166317)3/26/2012 1:43:32 PM
From: teevee
   of 185528
 
I disagree. The GOM refineries effectively fill refining capacity by a dutch auction where crude suppliers who sell at the lowest price get to sell their oil. Adding more supply to GOM refineries only puts more downward pressure on pricing. Those refineries will capture the crack spread as the diesel is mostly exported, and the gasoline is sold in the US markets. A discount on domestic oil should therefore increase, not decrease.

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To: Salt'n'Peppa who wrote (166272)3/26/2012 1:45:18 PM
From: JimisJim
   of 185528
 
Horizontal/directional drilling has been used offshore since the mid-late 1980s all over the world.../eom

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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (166273)3/26/2012 2:28:53 PM
From: elmatador
   of 185528
 
U.S. net fuel exports to double in 2015-Wood Mackenzie


Mon Mar 12, 2012 5:29pm EDT


* US exports to grow by 450,000 bpd by 2015

* Weak local demand, cheap shale oil behind increase

* Competition with Brazilian refiners likely in three years

By Selam Gebrekidan and Kristen Hays

San Diego, Calif March 12 (Reuters) - U.S. net exports of oil products will likely double in the coming three years as the country's refiners ramp up output while local demand wanes, research firm Wood Mackenzie said on Monday.

The nation's net trade surplus for refined fuels - exports minus imports - will increase by about 450,000 barrels-per-day in 2015, the firm said addressing the the annual meeting of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers in San Diego, California.

The United States became a net exporter of refined products last year for the first time since 1949, after it shipped out 439,000 bpd more fuel than it imported, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

This followed a large dip in domestic consumption of gasoline and distillates as fuel efficiency improved in the country's vehicle fleet, renewable fuels expanded their market share and the nation's economy suffered under the recession.

The rising exports have attracted criticism this election year as gasoline prices climbed to a winter record high and refinery closures in the U.S. Northeast threatened further price hikes.

However, falling demand and rising production are behind the rising exports, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Since its peak in 2005, U.S. demand for refined oil products has fallen by 1.9 million bpd and last year's consumption was 150,000 bpd lower than in 2010, according to Wood Mackenzie. Meanwhile, refinery utilization in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast regions has jumped in the last three years thanks to larger supplies of cheap crude from the nation's prolific shale prospects.

"We've got U.S. refiners running hard and demand not changing much. So the extra supply is going to be exported," said Alan Gelder, head of oil research at the consultancy.

In addition, about 1.3 million bpd of refining capacity in Europe is under risk of permanent closure, opening up opportunities for U.S. refiners to supply Europe with more distillates. Utilization of existing European refineries will further be tempered because of higher operational costs related to the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme.

New markets are on the horizon as well. Gelder says export to Sub-Saharan Africa will likely increase in the coming years.

"At the moment you've got West Africa supplied by India-they're putting it on large ships and sending it off to West African Coasts. That could be done by refiners in the United States," he said.

Wood Mackenzie's projections assume high oil prices in the world market, continued growth in U.S. shale output and refiners' unimpeded access to neighboring markets.

But competition from Latin American export refiners will narrow U.S. firms' advantage by 2015, according to Gelder

This is especially so if Petrobras' Premia I and II export refineries, currently under development in Brazil, come online as planned in three years.

"They'll be targeting the Atlantic basin so there will be competition with the Gulf Coast (refiners)," Gelder said.

U.S. refiners will need to build terminals, secure market access through long- term supply agreements with importing countries, and rent or build tanks to hold on to their markets, he added. (Editing by Bob Burgdorfer)

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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (166273)3/26/2012 2:29:22 PM
From: elmatador
   of 185528
 
Brazil’s Petrobras Says Refining Shortfall to Last Until 2013
Message 28037609

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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (166294)3/26/2012 2:31:27 PM
From: t4texas
3 Recommendations   of 185528
 
after checking on various colonial pipeline expansions i find the company is expanding the pipeline multiple times to deliver gulf coast gasoline and diesel fuel to the east coast. all that oil that is or will be coming to the gulf coast refiners from cushing/seaway or the keystone xl pipeline will be refined in the gulf coast refineries and supply the northeast and other regions of the usa to relieve the refinery closings that are happening in the northeast. so the claim by some that all the bakken/canadian oil sands/etc. oil is just going to be refined into products that will just be exported to other countries is simply not true. sounds like the gulf coast refineries via the colonial might one day supply the northeast with all its refined oil products.

colpipe.com

businessweek.com

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To: teevee who wrote (166318)3/26/2012 2:31:35 PM
From: upanddown
   of 185528
 
A discount on domestic oil should therefore increase, not decrease.

I would think pipeline companies prepared to spend billions to bring additional supply to the GOM might disagree with you. What would be the point of building additional capacity other than to seek world (higher) prices?

We still import approx 4.5MMBD into PADD 3. Wouldn't some of those imports go elsewhere for higher prices rather than compete with lower-priced domestic crude for refining capacity?

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To: Jim P. who wrote (166311)3/26/2012 2:35:19 PM
From: StockGamer
   of 185528
 
The Fed and Obama are trying hard to prop up the US and the world before the election, so chances are the low of the economy and oil will happen after the election. If there is an agreement about the fiscal situation looming in 2013, things may work out OK. But I think there will be gridlock, and markets will respond to that before year end.

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