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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (164869)3/14/2012 2:14:04 PM
From: Dennis Roth
2 Recommendations   of 192867
Sabine Pass Is the Next Keystone XL

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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (165495)3/14/2012 2:16:33 PM
From: Keith J
   of 192867
ATPG bonds have been slowly but steadily improving - back up to 77 today.

Wishing they'd get that Q4 reporting out of the way.


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To: pz who wrote (164554)3/14/2012 2:28:37 PM
From: Dennis Roth
1 Recommendation   of 192867
When, Not If: Obama Will Release SPR Oil

For the record, the petroleum reserve, called the SPR for short, currently contains about 695 million barrels, short of its 727-million-barrel capacity because Obama released some 30 million barrels last summer during the panic over Libya.

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To: kidl who wrote (165515)3/14/2012 3:06:48 PM
From: Dennis Roth
1 Recommendation   of 192867
IEA: Iran Oil Exports to Drop 50%

Iran’s oil exports will probably decline by 50 percent when European sanctions take full effect in July, the International Energy Agency said.

Shipments will fall by at least 800,000 barrels a day, David Fyfe, head of the IEA’s market and industry division, said by phone from Paris, citing discussions with market participants. Iran exported just below 2 million barrels a day last month, compared with 2.6 million in November, the IEA, adviser to 28 industrialized nations, said in a report today. Iran’s oil minister said exports haven’t decreased.

“It’s likely Iran will be casting around to try and find buyers for 800,000 barrels to 1 million barrels,” Fyfe said. “That sets the floor of what potential reductions in Iranian exports might be. It could be much bigger than that.”

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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (165521)3/14/2012 3:11:33 PM
From: Keith J
   of 192867
I don't think SPR release is a given yet. I believe a lot will depend on what happens with Iran over the next few months.


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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (165522)3/14/2012 3:12:21 PM
From: kidl
   of 192867
Who knows ... ???

EU Considers Allowing Insurance for Tankers Sailing to Iran
By Isaac Arnsdorf and Ewa Krukowska - Mar 14, 2012 1:52 PM ET

The European Union may allow insurance against risks such as collisions and spills for tankers carrying Iranian oil, a proposal that would ease curbs on the nation’s crude exports.

The EU would prohibit the insurance and re-insurance of Iranian oil “except for third-party liability insurance and environmental liability insurance,” according to a draft document obtained by Bloomberg News. The bloc aims to complete the regulation, which is being considered by national governments, within a month, according to an EU official with knowledge of the matter.

Brent oil has risen 14 percent since an EU embargo was announced Jan. 23 to pressure Iran over its nuclear program. As originally agreed, the ban would affect insurance for 95 percent of the world’s tankers that are covered by the London-based International Group of P&I Clubs, according to insurers and ship owners. The International Energy Agency said today Iranian exports would slump 50 percent by mid-year, when the EU embargo is due to take full effect.

“This is a first sign that the EU and U.S. realize that they have overshot a bit on the sanctions against Iran, and that internal pressure is increasing on the question of oil prices spinning out of control,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH, a researcher in Zug, Switzerland. “It is likely to have an impact on prices at some stage.”

Brent oil for April settlement fell 14 cents to $126.08 at 5:13 p.m. on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Liability Insurance

An exception proposed in the draft document would allow tankers owned outside the EU to continue carrying Iranian oil even if they are insured in Europe, according to Andrew Bardot, the International Group’s secretary and executive officer.

“Liability insurance is the big issue because the level of exposure is much higher,” he said in a phone interview from London. “The draft would mean non-European tanker operators can lawfully carry cargoes outside Europe to non-European destinations.”

The International Group has pressed the European Commission and member states about making an exception for insurance against pollution and crashes, Bardot said. The group’s 13 members are subject to EU rules to access the reinsurance pool, according to Bardot.

Frontline Ltd. (FRO), Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. (OSG) and owners of at least 100 supertankers said last month they would no longer call at Iranian ports because of the insurance ban.

Oil Sales

Iran’s output dropped last month to 3.45 million barrels a day, the lowest level since September 2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Exports slid to 1.8 million barrels a day from 2.3 million at the end of last year, according to Citigroup Inc. They may decline as much as 1 million barrels a day after July, the IEA said today.

Oil sales earned the Persian Gulf country, the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries’ second-biggest producer, $73 billion in 2010, accounting for about 50 percent of government revenue, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

To contact the reporters on this story: Isaac Arnsdorf in London at; Ewa Krukowska in Brussels at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alaric Nightingale at

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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (165495)3/14/2012 4:21:05 PM
From: kollmhn
   of 192867
Hang tough, CC. I just reduced my equity exposure by one third. Too many are too giddy, imo.

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From: Dennis Roth3/14/2012 5:32:28 PM
2 Recommendations   of 192867
Oil Inventory Watch
Stocks Fall; Gasoline & Distillate Demand Up; Cracks Up
14 March 2012 ¦ 19 pages


FWIW, and IMO it ain't worth much, The International Energy Agency's Monthly Oil Market Report.
The trouble is they don't release it to the public until it's over a month old, and the data in it is a
couple of months older than that. So If your interested in learning what the state of the oil market was
in December in mid March, this is the report for you!

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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (165517)3/14/2012 6:01:42 PM
From: JimisJim
   of 192867
Yes, from Credit Suisse: CREDIT SUISSE: Reiterate Outperform and target price of $26,50 CAD ...
Jury Is Still Out at Bua Ban South


Oligocene Hits: The company announced successful exploration results in

the Lower Oligocene at Bua Ban South. The G-01 well hit 88 feet of net pay

with 12% porosity. Pressure data suggests that this accumulation in the

Oligocene is a different pool than the one found at Bua Ban Main. While

these initial exploration results are positive, we do not attribute substantial

value to it at this juncture. We also believe that the market will likely have a

greater response to the absence of the Miocene thus far at Bua Ban South.


Miocene Absent…for Now: The first well at Bua Ban South did not

encounter the Lower Miocene in this particular fault block, but the next two

exploration wells will target adjacent fault blocks for the Miocene. We

currently believe the jury is still out on the Miocene at Bua Ban South but

note the market could assume a skeptical position before further results are



More Fuel in the Tank: With much near-term focus on Bua Ban South, one

could lose sight of all the other potential exploration resources yet to be

drilled. Beyond Bua Ban South, there are currently still approximately 157

mmbbls in un-risked P50 recoverable resources to be targeted. This number

could further expand on the back of the company’s 3D seismic acquisition

program this year. We believe that past Bua Ban South, the company’s

exploration focus would likely turn towards Bua Ban North Terrace.


Recommendation: Although the absence of the Miocene thus far at Bua

Ban South is disappointing, we believe the final verdict has yet to come with

more exploration wells to be drilled. At current prices we believe the

company’s identified 2P recoverable volumes to be somewhat discounted

while the exploration upside comes for free. We reiterate our Outperform

rating and target price of C$26.50.

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To: mach who wrote (162262)3/14/2012 6:11:11 PM
From: Dennis Roth
3 Recommendations   of 192867
ECA Marcellus Trust I (ECT)
Execution of Drilling Program Overshadowed by Weak Gas Prices
14 March 2012 ¦ 15 pages

Maintain Neutral; Lowering Target Price to $22.00/Unit

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