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From: Dennis Roth2/20/2012 5:40:09 AM
1 Recommendation   of 178586
 
Exploration and Production Weekly
Earnings Help Boost E&P Sector For Fourth Straight Week
20 February 2012 ¦ 20 pages
citigroupgeo.com 

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To: sammie44 who wrote (164181)2/20/2012 8:01:28 AM
From: Ed Ajootian   of 178586
 
sammie, nostarch et al, thanks much for your comments, very helpful. Although the upside potential is certainly limited and cloudy it seems that the downside, once we get by shoulder season, is somewhat limited.

This shoulder season should tell the tale. If the weather-adjusted stats keep getting better I plan to start exploring buying some natty production. If I can buy it where it works using a $2.50 price assumption I think there is good opportunity to make some money.

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From: Salt'n'Peppa2/20/2012 8:39:37 AM
1 Recommendation   of 178586
 
WTI is now $105/bbl and Brent is over $120/bbl, yet the markets still march higher today in Europe.
Pretty much every exchange traded commodity is up as well, yet oddly inflation is reported as "below expectations".
bloomberg.com 

Is Japan's debt (at over 200% of GDP - $10 trillion) the next big threat to global financial stability?
livemint.com 
"Japan’s debt burden is the worst among industrialized economies, and it may not be able to postpone drastic spending cuts and aggressive tax hikes much longer as Europe’s debt crisis threatens the global economy."





This situation cannot last. Which will drop hard first?
S&P

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From: kidl2/20/2012 8:44:06 AM
   of 178586
 
Insurance fears see few tankers ready to haul Iran crude
Monday, 20 February 2012 | 00:00

Asian buyers of Iranian crude are struggling to find vessels willing to call at ports in the Islamic Republic as shipowners fear losing insurance cover for their tankers because of European and US sanctions aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
Although the EU ban on the import and transportation of Iranian crude does not directly affect Iran's Asian customers, a provision in the sanctions legislation agreed January 23 is having an impact far beyond European shores. "It shall be prohibited to provide, directly or indirectly, financing or financial assistance, including financial derivatives, as well as insurance and reinsurance, related to the import, purchase, or transport of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products," the legislation says.
The EU ban on the import and transportation of Iranian crude does not come into effect until July 1, which gives companies with existing contracts several months to phase them out and find alternative supplies.
But chartering and shipowning sources say that tanker operators with protection and indemnity (P&I) insurance cover from mutual clubs based in Europe are not accepting crude cargoes loading from Iran, despite being offered a premium to standard rates.
P&I Clubs provide insurance cover for broad, indeterminate risks such as third-party liabilities, which include a carrier's liability to the owner of a cargo for damage to the cargo, the liability of a ship after a collision, environmental pollution and war risk insurance.
Shipowners and operators such as Nova Tankers, Maersk Tankers, Frontline and OSG, all of which have large fleets, are already avoiding Iran.
An alternative for Asian tanker charterers is to look for vessels with insurance cover offered by non-EU regulated groups like Japan P&I Club, which is part of the Japan Ship Owners' Mutual Protection & Indemnity Association, sources say.
In fact, the Japan P&I Club has already seen an increase in inquiries from shipowners for insurance cover, according to one of its officials.
"The current situation is the same and it has not changed. Vessels with Japan P&I club cover can still go and lift Iranian cargoes," the official says. "Basically we are not bound by the EU regulation. We have our reinsurance arrangement done independently."
Nevertheless, this source admits, vessels with cover from Japan P&I Club could still face partial exposure to the EU sanctions because of pooling arrangements for reinsurance cover between the various P&I clubs.
Japanese refiners appear to have had no major problems lifting crude from Iran so far as most of them have time-chartered fleets with cover provided by Japan P&I Club for some vessels and by EU-based P&I clubs for others.
But this mixed cover means that scheduling becomes increasingly complicated.
"The current P&I issue has upset the positioning and scheduling of our ships. We have to specifically send those vessels with Japan P&I Club cover to fetch our Iran-loading cargoes," a Japanese chartering source says.
Indicative of the level of confusion surrounding the implications of the EU sanctions for the shipping sector are the various statements being published by tanker organizations.
The International Group, an association of 13 member clubs that provide liability cover for close to 90% of the world's shipping tonnage, last week released a list of Frequently Asked Questions on the impact of the sanctions on insurance and reinsurance cover arrangements.
The FAQs state that the P&I cover would be valid for lifting only those cargoes for which contracts were concluded before January 23, 2012. It further says it is reasonable to conclude that even "ancillary contracts" such as charter party agreements could be valid if they were concluded prior to January 23.
Despite such advice, however, many shipowners say their inquiries about cover have drawn ambiguous responses from P&I clubs and some say that insurance cover for voyages to Iran is simply not available, regardless of whether the cargo concerned is being lifted under a contract agreed prior to January 23.
"The Japan P&I Club and some UK P&I clubs have not denied insurance cover for Iranian trade so far. We are awaiting a final decision regarding the carriage of the Iran origin and loading cargoes," says a source from a company with a big fleet of VLCC tankers.
A source with a South Korean shipowner says his company is still trying to decide whether to send vessels to Iran to load crude and is waiting for a clear response from its P&I club on the provision of cover.
"Most of the owners are not calling at Iranian ports at the moment. As far as I know, the insurance cover is not available for that particular voyage," says another source with a South Korean shipowner, although he adds that "Indian and Chinese owners have no issues" when it comes to loading Iranian crude. "The Chinese lift a lot of Iranian crude and it's a big volume. So the Chinese owners will still go to Iran. If the P&I clubs don't [offer them] cover, the [Chinese] government may give them a guarantee," he says.
Interestingly, a source with Chinese-owned Nanjing tankers says that the company's Chinese-flagged vessels can still load from Iran but that those flagged to Singapore are restricted from calling at Iranian ports.
Big Chinese crude lifters such as Unipec have Contract of Affreightment deals with Chinese shipowners to lift cargoes from the Persian Gulf, including ports in Iran. Under a COA arrangement, a shipowner agrees to move a specified quantity of oil at a specified rate between designated loading and discharge ports over a given period of time.
But Chinese state-owned trader Zhuhai Zhenrong -- on which the US has slapped sanctions for allegedly supplying Tehran with refined products -- is often seen hiring vessels from the spot market to load from Iran.
India is another big Asian buyer of Iranian crude, with imports of around 300,000 b/d or 15 million mt/year from the Islamic republic, although some Indian refiners have struggled to find vessels on the spot market willing to lift from Iran.
State-owned refiner HPCL, one of the biggest Indian buyers of Iranian crude and which plans to renew its annual contract with the National Iranian Oil Company, has a COA deal with the state-owned Shipping Corporation of India to ferry Iranian crude.
"We are still sending our ships to Iran. We are getting P&I cover on a vessel-by-vessel basis. We have a few COA [deals] with our customers, which we need to fulfill," SCI chairman and managing director S. Hajara told Platts by telephone from Mumbai.
"Also, the Indian government has said that the country will continue to import Iranian crude," he said, adding: "On the EU regulations, we will see when it comes to July 1."
But Indian shipping sources are less than sanguine about future chartering options.
One VLCC broker points out that a note sent out by one P&I club "strongly highlights the dangers of having any Iran linkages on the entire fleet profile of an owner."
"Apparently it will be almost impossible for any owner with a decent fleet to touch Iran, considering that one trade can bring their entire business into a legal gambit," he says.
This broker adds that charterers worldwide tend to prefer the wording of P&I cover provided by first-class European insurers.
"So whatever little premium one may achieve by calling [to] Iran with regional P&I club cover may not be a very far-sighted decision. The risks are much broader today and the implications even more complicated," he says.
Could shipowners circumvent sanctions and their implications for insurance cover by loading Iranian cargoes from international waters or from non-Iranian-owned terminals? No, say shipping sources flatly. Since the cargo grade has to be notified on the bill of lading, shipowners will find it nearly impossible to keep away from the sanctions radar.
However, they say, one way to keep the supply of Iranian crude flowing would be to have ships owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company to deliver cargoes directly to customers.
This would suit Indian buyers in particular, one shipping source says, pointing out that "the Chinese are capable of underwriting their own vessels, if they have not done so already."
He suggests that Indian buyers may "try to get oil delivered on a C&F basis," which does not include insurance cover and "which means they get cheaper oil on cheaper tonnages."
NITC, one of the world's biggest crude tanker companies, has a fleet that includes 25 VLCCs, nine Suezmaxes and five Aframaxes.
KEY FACTS AND STATS
* Iran exports up to 2.6 million b/d of crude, a volume which requires about 39 VLCCs or 78 Suezmaxes a month.
A VLCC can hold up to 2 million barrels of crude and a Suezmax about half that volume.
China imported 29.76 million mt of crude from Iran, its third-biggest supplier after Saudi Arabia and Angola, last year.
The country's top three buyers of Iranian crude are Unipec, which currently lifts around 280,000 b/d, Zhuhai Zhenrong, which has signed an agreement to buy 260,000 b/d, and ChinaOil, which is reported to be lifting Iranian crude largely on a spot basis.
Japan imported 313,000 b/d of crude from Iran, its fourth-biggest crude supplier, last year.
South Korea imported 82.59 million barrels--an average 225,000 b/d--of Iranian crude last year, up from 72.50 million barrels in 2010.
Source: Platts

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To: Salt'n'Peppa who wrote (164185)2/20/2012 8:45:46 AM
From: tom pope   of 178586
 
Agreed. Futures up 7 points doesn't compute with oil at 105.

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To: tom pope who wrote (164187)2/20/2012 9:09:48 AM
From: Bearcatbob   of 178586
 
I trust the first guy here to figure this out will let us know. IMO the traditional sequence of rising oil prices would kill the economy - which in an election year is untenable - so - oil will fall.

Bob

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From: Eric2/20/2012 9:12:52 AM
1 Recommendation   of 178586
 
Canada threatens trade war with EU over tar sands

The row over the EU's plan to label tar sands oil as highly polluting escalates as Canada says it 'will not hesitate to defend its interests'


Aerial view of Shell Albian mine north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. Photograph: Jiri Rezac/Jiri Rezac /eyevine

Canada has threatened a trade war with European Union over the bloc's plan to label oil from Alberta's vast tar sands as highly polluting, the Guardian can reveal, before a key vote in Brussels on 23 February.

"Canada will not hesitate to defend its interests, including at the World Trade Organisation," state letters sent to European commissioners by Canada's ambassador to the EU and its oil minister, released under freedom of information laws.

The move is a significant escalation of the row over the EU's plans, which Canada fears would set a global precedent and derail its ability to exploit its tar sands, which are the biggest fossil fuel reserve in the world after Saudi Arabia. Environmental groups argue that exploitation of the tar sands, also called oil sands, is catastrophic for the global climate, as well as causing serious air and water pollution in Alberta.

Darek Urbaniak, at Friends of the Earth Europe, which obtained the new documents, said: "These letters are further evidence of Canadian government and industry lobbying, which continuously undermines efforts to combat climate change. We find it unacceptable that the Canadian government now openly uses direct threats at the highest political levels to derail crucial EU climate legislation."

The unveiling of Canada's threats is the latest in a series of recent embarrassing revelations. On 12 February, the occurrence of a secret strategy "retreat" in London in 2011 was discovered. High-level officials discussed the "critical" issue of winning the tar sands argument in the EU, to "mitigate the impact on the Canadian brand" and to protect the "huge investments from the likes of Shell, BP, Total and Statoil". Representatives of Shell, Total and Statoil attended the meeting alongside the UK's state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

In December, the Guardian revealed the secret high-level help given to the Canada by the UK government, which included David Cameron discussing the issue with his counterpart Stephen Harper during a visit to Canada, and stating privately that the UK wanted "to work with Canada on finding a way forward". Canada's minister for natural resources, Joe Oliver, stated: "[The British] have been very, very helpful."

The UK proposed an alternative "banded" approach to ascribing carbon emissions to different fuel types, which does not single out tar sands. But environmentalists dismiss it as a delaying tactic and the Guardian understands that the UK has failed to present its proposal formally or provide supporting evidence.

In the newly released documents, Canada's ambassador to the EU, David Plunkett, wrote in December to Connie Hedegaard, European commissioner for climate action, about the EU plans under the fuel quality directive (FQD). "If the final measures single out oil sands crude in a discriminatory, arbitrary or unscientific way, or are otherwise inconsistent with the EU's international trade obligations, I want to state that Canada will explore every avenue at its disposal to defend its interests, including at the World Trade Organisation." In October, Oliver wrote to the European commissioner for energy, Günther Oettinger and Baroness Catherine Ashton, vice-president of the commission, stating: "If unjustified, discriminatory measures to implement the fuel quality directive are put in place, Canada will not hesitate to defend its interests."

A Canadian government spokeswoman told the Guardian: "We oppose an FQD that discriminates against oil sands crude without strong scientific basis. The oil sands are a proven strategic resource for Canada; we will continue to promote Canada's oil sands as they are key to Canada's economic prosperity and energy security."

The European Commission disputes the charge that its plans are not based on science. Hedegaard told the Guardian: "The Commission identified the most carbon-intensive sources in its science-based proposal. This way high-emission fossil fuels will be labelled and given the proper value. It is only reasonable to give high values to more polluting products than to less polluting products. I of course hope the member states will follow the Commission [and vote for] this environmentally sound initiative."

Colin Baines, toxic fuels campaign manager at the Co-operative, said: "There is a wealth of independent science stating that tar sands fuels emit significantly more carbon than conventional oil, no matter how many briefings Canada gives claiming otherwise." The EU proposal is to label tar sands oil as causing 22% more greenhouse gas emissions than conventional oil on average. The increase results from the energy needed to blast the bitumen from the bedrock and refine it.

Baines added: "The Canadian government's aggressive lobbying and attempted intimidation of the EU is making it look increasingly desperate. But its threat of a WTO challenge faces one massive problem: tar sands oil is not a 'like product' with crude oil so no unlawful discrimination exists under WTO. The EU must adhere to the science and penalise the higher emissions."

Many European oil companies have major interests in the Canadian tar sands. In January, the Guardian revealed a secret compromise plan that would weaken the impact on tar sands oil, this time from the Netherlands, home of Shell. BP, headquartered in the UK, had already in their own words "bent the ear" of the UK's energy minister. Total in France and ENI in Italy also have tar sands interests and those nations are believed to be opposed to the EU plan.

If the FQD proposal fails to win the required majority in the vote on Thursday it faces an arduous fight for survival through the European council and parliament. The UK's votes are seen as crucial, but a government spokeswoman declined to say which way the UK would vote. The issue has become a difficult one for the responsible minister, Liberal Democrat Norman Baker, who frequently supports environmental policies. On 10 February, he said: "For climate change reasons, I do not think it would be helpful to extend our reliance on fossil fuels any more than necessary," before a meeting about proposals to extract shale gas using fracking near his constituency in Lewes.

His party colleague, Chris Davies MEP, who is the Lib Dem environment spokesman in the European parliament, said: "It is extraordinarily naive for ministers and officials to take the special pleading by Canada as though it were gospel truth, rather than what it is – an attempt to protect narrow financial interests." In 2009, Simon Hughes MP, and now deputy leader of the Lib Dems said: "World leaders must work towards a treaty that will outlaw tar sands extraction, in the same way they came together to ban land mines, blood diamonds and cluster bombs."

In December, Canada unilaterally pulled out of the world's only binding climate change treaty, the Kyoto protocol, having increased its emissions of greenhouse gases by a third instead of reducing them by 6%. In public, the Canadian government claimed that tar sands are "sustainable" but in private it has admitted there is no "credible scientific information" to support this. Canada suffered a setback in January, when Barack Obama rejected a proposal for a controversial pipeline called Keystone XL to import bring tar sands oil from Alberta, though Republicans in congress are working to reinstate the pipeline.

guardian.co.uk 

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To: Eric who wrote (164189)2/20/2012 9:18:11 AM
From: tom pope12 Recommendations   of 178586
 
What's embarrassing about a country defending its economic interests?


The unveiling of Canada's threats is the latest in a series of recent embarrassing revelations.


But that's just the Guardian.

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To: tom pope who wrote (164190)2/20/2012 9:27:21 AM
From: Eric   of 178586
 
Canada has a very tall "mountain" to climb with this one..

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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (164188)2/20/2012 9:42:26 AM
From: nostarch3 Recommendations   of 178586
 
Bearcat, Gulf Keystone, Rockhopper and Tullow opening in London at new 52 week highs this AM. As far as the election is concerned we should probably expect a release from SPR on the barest provocation. The warning sign we should be looking for as "investors" is new highs in oil without new highs in oil stocks. This was the clue to the top in 2008 anyway.

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