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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (163725)	2/12/2012 1:30:45 PM
From: renovator	of 178707

MMR--The put prices are very intriguing too. With the shares at 13.57 on Fri close, the Feb 13 P-with a week to run was at .26 for a 2% yield for a week and a 12.76 entry point if exercised. Mar 13 P is 1.17 or 9% with Mar 12 at .78 for 6.5%. Going out to May gives us May 13 P -1.88 =14.4%, May 12P-1.45=12%, May 11P-1.04=9.45%. If willing to commit to Jan 2013-the 12.5P is 3.05 for a whopping 24.4% with the 10P just behind at 18.7 for 18.7% and the chance to leave another 2.50 of risk on the table lets you sell the 7.5P for .97 or 12.9%. Depending on your willingness to take on risk, all of these present pretty generous opportunities. The thing to remember about this company is a very long history of political risk combined with the occasional self inflicted foot wound which has periodically whacked the shares! Another instance where the high premium is not completely out of thin air. Still, I have owned it on an off for a long time and find it very tradable.

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To: johnlw who wrote (163778)	2/12/2012 5:18:14 PM
From: sm1th	of 178707

Great lakes tanker traffic isn't year round. I have been out of that business for several decades, but from what I remember it varies quite a bit with the weather, and also the route. Lake Superior becomes non-navigable well before Lake Ontario. Ideally you would want to load on Lake Ontario, east of the Welland canal, so that you could use larger tankers. In the late 70's Detroit Edison built a coal carrier to supply its power plants. The plan was based on about 9 months of operation and a stockpile at the plant. A refinery could probably do something similar if the economics work. I haven't attempted to work through the details, just throwing out an idea.

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To: Kayaker who wrote (163772)	2/12/2012 5:45:47 PM
From: Kayaker	of 178707

Average Gasoline Price Jumps To Highest In 5 Months Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/12/2012 17:21 -0500 ....As the weekly Lundberg survey shows, in the week ended February 10, gas rose by 11.57 cents to $3.5101, the highest since September. The latest price is also 12% higher compared to a year earlier. What is troubling is that as the attached chart shows, the trend of gradual gas price declines has now firmly ended, having touched a low of $3.20, and has been replaced by a steady climb over the past 2 months. In other words, the US consumer's retail spending has been far weaker than expected in November and December, and soon to be discovered in January, primarily due to gas purchases, which have already plunged as discussed recently, once again taking up a substantial portion of the discretionary spending basket (on credit at that).... zerohedge.com

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To: Kayaker who wrote (163772)	2/12/2012 7:11:13 PM
From: t4texas	2 Recommendations of 178707

from your links i went to this matrix (below) for daily motor gasoline deliveries from refiners from 1983 to 2011. the last reporting date for this matrix was 2/1/2012 as noted on the matrix at the bottom of it. i can see there has been a gradual decline in motor gasoline deliveries since 1983, likely due to car efficiencies even as the number of cars has increased on amercan roads. also i can see some jumps and declines likely depending on driving season and various recession and expansion periods. however the drop in motor gasoline refinery deliveries in october 2011 and november 2011 are huge relative to any other period i see since 1983. i am truly amazed at what might have been going on to cause this. i know i see no shortages at gas stations i drive by or fill up. did we go into a driving depression in october? are the gas guzzling older cars selectively come off the roads that fast, and the new ones get so much better mileage. is the unemployment simply keeping a ton of extra people from driving anymore? are that many more people simply working from home? i know some refiners are shutting down their operations permanently, but with this drop in gasoline deliveries per day to retail i think i would have seen a much larger increase in retail gasoline prices than i have seen since last autumn -- unless a lot less people are driving (or something). eia.gov

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