Technology StocksSDLI - JDSU transition

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To: FR1 who wrote (2973)1/25/2002 8:13:58 PM
From: Timetobuy
   of 3294
Thank goodness for the cash they have. Acquisitions are always a risk. I hope they try to integrate what they've got before going after anything else.

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To: FR1 who wrote (2973)1/26/2002 10:40:50 AM
From: Timetobuy
   of 3294
I'll tell you one thing about jdsu: When they finally say they KNOW this IS the bottom and sales see sequential growth, people will likely believe them. But they're going to have to say it with conviction, not some "we think that the next quarter MIGHT be the bottom".

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To: riposte who wrote (2969)1/26/2002 3:33:07 PM
   of 3294

No doubt the Telcos are going back to old pressure to change, neither from a regulatory nor a competitive point of view. OTOH, I do expect to see some form of "Telecom Act of 2002" to spur the buildout of broadband.

As I see it, it's either spur the private sector, pay for it from taxes, or fall behind the productivity improvement curve. Better infrastructure is one of the key things that keeps "first" world countries competitive with the "third".

Washington: We've got enough tactical leadership (lower taxes, lower interest, no more terrorists, etc.), time for some strategic leadership (the economic competitive posture of the country).


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To: OWN STOCK who wrote (2976)1/27/2002 2:40:43 AM
From: FR1
   of 3294
Telcos are going back to old pressure to change..

It is the same old story with a twist.
1) Feds, for academic reasons, decide to do a extreme tight money policy.
2) All of the capital intensive growth industries die leaving only the big guys.
3) With no competition, they sit on their ass and collect money from their subs.
4) Congress eventually acts (too late for the dead).
5) Eventually it gets competition started.
6) Eventually we get growth back,
7) The FED, for academic reasons, decides to do a extreme tight money policy.
8) Go back to 1)

The twist this time around is that the baby bells not only have the market choked off but they have tons of money and know how to use it in elections. Therefore not only does nobody want to go against the monopoly power with new laws but politicians will even go the other way around and give the baby bells more power.

Even with Enron it is unlikely that congress will do anything about campaign finance. They will turkey trot around the table until the public doesn't want to hear it any more and then forget it.

Because of the above, the "Telecom Act of 2002" is unlikely.

There is a well funded silicon valley lobby group fighting to get something to happen but the politicians are too terrified of the big business money. Our only hope is that the silicon valley lobby forces this to be an issue by publicizing the fact that we have no national broadband development policy whereas Korea, Japan, France, Germany and England all do. Somehow we have to force the parties to take a policy stand. Once one party does the other will have to follow.

I'm not sure I have very much hope. How many years has this whole mess been sitting around?

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To: FR1 who wrote (2977)1/28/2002 10:03:28 PM
   of 3294

I beg to differ, there will most likely be a Telecom 2002. It will be the "giveaway" you describe: forget the '96 rules, the new rules will be if you built it, you have to share it (bone to Joe Public, and '96), but if you build it (future tense) you get to keep it to yourself (the payoff for ILECs and politicians) or charge much higher rates.

That will lead to new CAPEX, at reasonable rates. The fiber sector will thaw and begin to bloom again.

The trick is, under the new bill, the ILECs will not have to enhance (equals buy more of) the heritage stuff (the stuff they have to share with CLECs) and it will quickly clog up (no bandwidth) and disappear as a percentage of the market. If it is new build, the old rules do not apply. So Joe Public eventually gets the bill anyway, or he gets no bandwidth.

The alternative is NO money being spent at all, and there is no bandwidth at any price for anyone. And we all know Joe Public was going to pay anyway, there is no free lunch in this life.

Hang in there, the worst is over. Follow the money. The ILECS are just beginning to spend (in Washington). Watch for the scenario above.

Note in proof: What other sector of the economy is showing double digit growth in this market? (SBC's latest report) Not retail. Not medical. Certainly not NRG.



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To: OWN STOCK who wrote (2978)1/29/2002 10:32:45 AM
From: riposte
   of 3294
"The alternative is NO money being spent at all, and there is no bandwidth at any price for anyone. ..."

I respectfully disagree.

The bandwidth will be there - and the requisite capital expenditure made - when the RBOC feels 100% certain that it will be able to extract sufficient return on their investment to make it worthwhile.

Meanwhile, I'm dialed into work right now on a line that, today, can't seem seem to connect any faster than 26,400 bps.

so sad...


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To: OWN STOCK who wrote (2978)1/29/2002 2:36:06 PM
From: riposte
   of 3294
Welcome to Cablevision Country

Here's an interesting article @ TheNetEconomy which demonstrates a company attempting to maximize their profits, by squeezing existing customers. This is much cheaper than building additional infrastructure to garner new customers...

January 24, 2002
Welcome to Cablevision Country

By Dennis Mendyk

If the Dolan family ran the tobacco business, that pack of Marlboros down at the local convenience store would probably run about $12 — matches not included.
Not that there's anything wrong with that, at least from a public-health perspective. Of course, things would look a little different from the cigarette users' point of view. Then again, given the rate at which federal and state governments have piled on the sin taxes for tobacco products, those users more likely than not would pay up to feed and maintain their addictions.

Dolan pere et fils are doing their part to test the economic breaking point for addiction when it comes to Internet service delivered over their Cablevision cable networks. This month, Cablevision bumped up the monthly price of its Optimum Online Internet access service by 17%, 25% or 34%. The size of the increase depends on other services each user gets from Cablevision.

It's not necessarily fair to single out Cablevision scion Charles Dolan and No. 1 son James for putting the economic screws to users with a need for broadband data service. In fact, Cablevision is late to the broadband price-hike game, lagging most other cable operators and most of the Bells in upping the monthly nut for broadband service.

And Cablevision could use the extra cash flow right about now. Its forays into the entertainment business are hurting mightily. At New York Knicks games, chants of "Dee-fense!" have been replaced by calls for "Ree-funds!" as the Cablevision-owned NBA franchise sinks out of the lucrative playoff picture. Their ice-skating brethren, the NHL's Rangers, are sliding toward another playoff-less spring, which means plenty of dark nights for Madison Square Garden, another Cablevision property. And the financial hit taken by Cablevision from its loss of the rights to televise New York Yankees games over its MSG Network will be considerable.

The inevitable question is whether extracting more cash out of what is supposed to be a growing customer base is a smart move. Despite well-documented whines about the lack of broadband access for consumers, Cablevision isn't exactly being flooded with requests for service. In its latest financial statement, for the third quarter of 2001, Cablevision claimed a market penetration of 15.3% for Optimum Online. In other words, about 85% of the customers who could get the service decided not to.

Again, this lack of response to what supposedly is a service in high demand isn't just Cablevision's problem. Nobody has been able to crack the 30% uptake mark for broadband service, despite years of trying — which makes you wonder just how pent-up demand for this kind of service really is.

Basic laws of economics would tell you that an increase in price has a negative effect on demand, especially for products and services deemed unessential. So by increasing its Internet-service fees now, Cablevision runs the risk of stunting the growth of new subscribers. But if users of Optimum Online really are hooked, the reward is a short-term boost to operating cash flow.

Apparently, that's a trade-off and a risk that Cablevision considers worth taking. Now it's up to Optimum Online's users to decide whether cable modem service is a habit worth feeding.


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To: Glenn McDougall who wrote (2970)1/29/2002 6:44:51 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk
   of 3294
Alcatel Captures Number-One in Global Optical Transport Market According to RHK

Performance Driven by Alcatel's Success in Terrestrial Optical Networking

DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 28, 2002--Alcatel (NYSE: ALA - news) today announced that it has captured the world's
number-one position in global optical transport in 2001, according to RHK, a leading telecom market research firm.

Presented at the RHK's STARTRAX2002 Conference, this study names Alcatel as the world leader in the global optical transport
market with 16 percent marketshare, a significant lead over all other competitors. This performance was driven by Alcatel's success in
terrestrial optical networking. The covered market includes terrestrial and submarine applications with Dense Wavelength Division
Multiplexing (DWDM), optical networking, Synchronous Digital Hierarchy/Synchronous Optical Network (SDH/SONET) and
cross-connect technologies. RHK estimates that the global optical transport market totaled $28 billion in 2001.

RHK's study demonstrates Alcatel's success in understanding and responding to both key evolutions that have characterized the
optics industry in 2001: the need for network operators to optimize their capital and operational expenditures, and the shift in network
build-outs from backbone to metropolitan. Alcatel's new-generation terrestrial optical product offering, which proved to be very
successful in 2001, is focused at reducing operators' total cost of network ownership (TCO), a concept that Alcatel has developed to
help its customers meet their financial challenges. This offering also includes flexible, multi-service solutions for metropolitan
applications. In submarine networking, Alcatel has also focused on reducing its customers' TCO by providing them with specific
solutions for their network upgrades and developing a customized approach to services.

In addition, Alcatel's global reach, diversified customer-base (more than 500 customers in 2001 for optics activities across the board)
and strong positioning with incumbent operators has enabled the company to address the most dynamic market segments in 2001.
Alcatel has registered significant marketshare gains in SDH and DWDM technologies around the world, strengthening its lead in
Europe and Latin America, increasing its presence in Asia-Pacific and making a breakthrough in the U.S.

``Despite the submarine networking market slump, Alcatel has taken the number one position in the 2001 global optical transport
market largely due to a very strong performance in the terrestrial optical transport market,'' said Stephane Teral, director of European &
Global Optical Transport at RHK. ``Their renewed product mix, competitive lead-times, strong customer-base and worldwide presence
have been the foundations of this accomplishment.''

``RHK's data affirm our 2001 performance in a very challenging market environment where our long-term network vision for
transitioning optical infrastructures from existing to future services and thorough execution have been successful with our customers,''
said Christian Reinaudo, president of Alcatel's optics activities. ``At the end of 2000, we had said that our optical networking business
would be driven by our terrestrial activities in 2001. We have delivered on our promise.''

About RHK

RHK Inc. is the leading industry market research and consulting firm specializing in the analysis of advanced technologies for the
global telecommunications network. The company provides subscription services and consulting to technology vendors, service
providers, and the investment community worldwide. RHK's areas of expertise include: broadband access, operational support
systems, optical components, optical networks, packet services, switching and routing, telecommunication economics, and
telecommunication semiconductors. For more information, .

About Alcatel

Alcatel builds next generation networks, delivering integrated end-to-end voice and data networking solutions to established and
new carriers, as well as enterprises and consumers worldwide. With sales of EURO 27 billion in 2000 and 110,000 employees, Alcatel
operates in more than 130 countries. For more information, .


Alcatel Press:
Francoise Grumberg, Tel: 33 (0)1 40 76 50 38
Jamie Horton, Tel: 707/792-7843
Alcatel Investor Relations:
Claire Pedini, Tel: 33 (0)1 40 76 13 93
Peter Campbell, Tel: 972/519-4347
Alcatel Industry Analyst:
Julie Buckley, Tel: 707/792-7820

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More Quotes and News:
Alcatel SA (NYSE:ALA - news)
Related News Categories: computers, networking, telecom


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To: Kayaker who wrote (2956)1/31/2002 3:46:13 PM
From: Joe Giorgianni
   of 3294
Hey, Kayaker, where did everybody go?

I started investing in JDSU in the fall of 1998 and have found the wild ride interesting. When it was well into the 100s there were hundreds of postings a day here. Now that they're giving it away at 7 nobody's here.

I've held and waited patiently - and waited - and am still waiting.

Your name was the only one I recognized from the old crowd.


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To: Joe Giorgianni who wrote (2982)1/31/2002 4:07:56 PM
From: Kayaker
   of 3294
Hi Joe, there are a few old timers around. Most folks either sold and moved on, or they're too depressed to post much. If it ever gets back into the 150s again, I'm sure our great grandchildren will be back here posting lots of interesting stuff. <g>

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