Strategies & Market Trends | Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis


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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (48983)5/3/2004 4:31:03 PM
From: Nancy   of 52237
 
many sox components printed a new low today, that is truly amazing given the degree of oversold this sector is at.

even csco saw sub 21.

i guess fed would try to calm the market tomorrow.

what is your take on jnpr ?

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To: Nancy who wrote (48986)5/3/2004 4:32:09 PM
From: Jerry Olson   of 52237
 
time to buy that number Nancy...oversold is oversold...

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To: Nancy who wrote (48982)5/3/2004 4:34:12 PM
From: Michael Watkins   of 52237
 
Some of the carnage in chips and coms is extraordinary.

BRCD NVLS TXCC PMCS SWKS AMCC TQNT AMAT etc.

Quite a few of them are in parabolic declines right now, which of course means they are probably closer to the end of their decline and due for a bounce of some sort at least.

I doubt any holders of these are very sanguine about the carnage though ;-)

I can see a tradable bounce developing if the right tone is set post FOMC. But I can also see more downside too, either directly or a few days into a bounce.

In either case, I dont care and am ready to act as required.

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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (48985)5/3/2004 4:38:22 PM
From: Nancy   of 52237
 
no one expects rate hike tomorrow.

but everyone is anxious for how the tone of the bias.

this morning's ISM report definitely show yet another inflation evidence.

if Fed is smart, it should make it clear thru whatever language that they are prepared to hike, and hint enough for how much and when. that way mkt would know and not to worry or guess how much and when any more.

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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (48985)5/3/2004 4:39:35 PM
From: Michael Watkins   of 52237
 
My point is that there is no way to game it. There have been a great many that have tried, more fail than not. Trying to game it with new positions is directly akin to gambling.

I can't keep count of how many times our (I mean the whole community) guesses on what the FOMC will come out with have been spot on but price has done a 180 and surprised everyone. Its so unpredictable its predictable LOL

I won't lose any sleep carrying mostly cash into tomorrows meeting, that's for sure. ;-) The stuff I hold won't get whacked no matter what they have to say anyway.

On the positive side, the accelerating sell off in SOX related names might suggest exhaustion enough to power a decent bounce if the environment tomorrow supports one.

For those that stood aside from the train wreck in chips there might be a great short term trade opportunity ahead. Those that carried the pain all the way down may need to consider selling the bounce.

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To: Nancy who wrote (48989)5/3/2004 4:45:08 PM
From: Michael Watkins   of 52237
 
if Fed is smart, it should make it clear thru whatever language that they are prepared to hike, and hint enough for how much and when. that way mkt would know and not to worry or guess how much and when any more.


Something to consider is that language that specific would be completely uncharacteristic of the Fed and that action itself might freak out the market ;-)

After all saying something like "we are really concerned about inflation so we fully expect to raise rates by .25 or .5 by X date" is quite a bit different than saying "the FOMC believes the balance of risk is weighted more heavily towards price inflation than price deflation"

LOL !!!

besides if the info is specific all the talking heads will have nothing to talk about.

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To: Nancy who wrote (48982)5/3/2004 4:51:53 PM
From: Compadre   of 52237
 
Nancy, not that I am siding with anyone, but it is an inside day for the NDX and many a rally have started like this:

stockcharts.com 
stockcharts.com 

But I would not bet my house on it, ;)

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To: Compadre who wrote (48992)5/3/2004 4:59:07 PM
From: Nancy   of 52237
 
i agree with you and i have some qqq's.

it is just the sox is quite bothersome.

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To: Compadre who wrote (48930)5/3/2004 5:01:13 PM
From: Nancy   of 52237
 
after the "looking good" weekly candle, i believe comp lost 130 pt in the following week (the week just before).

therefore, the chart has become much harder to read (or to game).

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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (48991)5/3/2004 5:18:09 PM
From: Nancy   of 52237
 
true. but i remember there was one time many moons ago Fed was very clear on its intention. i couldn't remember when and for what though. :-(

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