Technology Stocks | Agere Systems (AGR.A & AGR.B)


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To: Alex Chilton who wrote (26)2/7/2001 2:12:30 PM
From: Adam Nash   of 98
 
Great find on the article!

Now we have real data. Here's my run through the numbers:

Agere Class A Shares: 222.65
Morgan Stanley Class A Shares: 147.65
Total Class A Shares: 370.30
Total Class A Ownership: 27.70%

Lucent Class B % Ownership: 72.30%
Lucent Class B Shares: 966.52

Total Agere Shares: 1,336.82

Valaution (IPO @ 15): 20,052.35
Valuation (IPO @ 20): 26,736.46

Total Lucent Shares: 3,390.00
Agere Shares/Lucent Shares: 0.2851
Number of LU to get 1 AGR: 3.5074

LU Price (2/7/01): 16.93
Total Lucent Valuation: 57,392.70

Total Lucent Value - Agere @ 15: 37,340.35
Implied Share Price: 11.01

Total Lucent Value - Agere @ 20: 30,656.24
Implied Share Price: 9.04

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To: Adam Nash who wrote (27)2/7/2001 5:06:06 PM
From: architect*   of 98
 
thanks Adam very helpful, Wasn't Mr. Ching of Merrill Lynch expecting a $60 billion Mkt Cap for Agere? (10 times 2001 revenue projections) much more than $20 - $26 Billion?


3.5 shares of Lucent X $17 would cost $59.5
and after IPO yield
1 share $20 of Agere + 3.5 shares of $11 Lucent = $58.5

1.336 million shares X $15 /share & Agere is valued @ 3 times 2001 revenues of $6.9 billion

1.336 million shares X $20 / share & Agere is valued @ 4 times 2001 revenues of $6.9 billion

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To: architect* who wrote (28)2/7/2001 5:33:18 PM
From: Adam Nash   of 98
 
I just ran the numbers based on the article posted. Given the state of the IPO market and the communications semiconductor market, the original estimate for $60B is unrealistic in the short term, and certainly for the placement.

Look at the recent performance of AMCC (which I am long) and PMCS.

However, if you believe in the continued growth of Agere, and you expect valuations to go through cycles long term, there is a lot of value potentially being left on the table with Agere.

The $2.5B in debt Lucent is dumping on Agere is a little troubling, as is the 16,500 headcount. Both do not compare favorably with other communications chip vendors.

Personally, I think Lucent is worth at least $70B without Agere, so effectively we are getting the spinoff for free. We'll see what actually happens, though. The market is not really in the mood right now for this type of thing.

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To: Adam Nash who wrote (29)2/7/2001 8:10:49 PM
From: architect*   of 98
 
It's hard to understand Lucent's logic for the timing of this IPO.

Based on LU price reaction, Agere's projected $20 -$25 Billion valuation must be about what the market was expecting.

FWIW Lucent bought Agere on 1/20/2000,
messages.yahoo.com 

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To: architect* who wrote (30)2/8/2001 7:13:51 AM
From: opalapril   of 98
 
Given a ratio of 1(AGR):3.5(LU) or even 1:4, is it to be expected that hedge funds will play their favorite game and short the subsidiary aggressively after the IPO and before distribution?

"but there is an increasingly high level of investor disapproval of spin-offs, or carve outs, of divisions of existing companies," said David Menlow, president of IPOfinancial.com based in Millburn, N.J."
siliconinvestor.com

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To: opalapril who wrote (31)2/20/2001 10:55:01 AM
From: Alex Chilton   of 98
 
Between $16 & $19
-Alex.

reuters.com 

Lucent's Agere Narrows Expected IPO Range

Last updated: 20 Feb 2001 15:30 GMT+00:00 (Reuters)



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Lucent Technologies Inc.'s LU.N Agere Systems Inc. on Tuesday narrowed the projected price range on its initial public offering, dropping the maximum possible proceeds to $7 billion from $7.4 billion but still making it the second-largest IPO in U.S. history.

Agere, whose optoelectronic components send and receive light that carries data and voice traffic over optical networks, said in an amended filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that the price range for its IPO of 370.3 million Class A common shares was now $16 to $19 a share.

About two weeks ago it said the shares would go for between $15 and $20 each.

If the stock were to sell at the high end of the new range, the IPO would raise $7 billion, down from $7.4 billion at the top of the old range.

It would still be the second-largest IPO ever, behind last year's $9 billion offering of AT&T Wireless Group Inc. AWE.N , the wireless telephone arm of AT&T Corp. T.N , according to Thomson Financial Securities Data.

Agere's suggested market capitalization dropped to $25.4 billion from $26.7 billion as a result of the narrower price range.

It is common for companies and their underwriters to change IPO terms as the offering's debut nears. A date for Agere has not been set yet, but the company is looking for a New York Stock Exchange listing under the symbol "AGR" AGR.N .

The IPO is being handled by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, which may sell 147.7 million of the 370.3 million shares.

Agere predicted it will net about $3.75 billion in proceeds if its 222.7 million shares sell for $17.50 each. It plans to use the money for general corporate purposes, including working capital.

Agere, which had revenue of $4.7 billion and a net loss of $76 million in fiscal 2000, will not get any money from the stock sold by Morgan Stanley.

Lucent shares were up 10 cents to $12.77 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange. In the past 52 weeks the stock has been as high as $75.25 and as low as $12.19.

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To: Alex Chilton who wrote (32)2/20/2001 1:38:04 PM
From: Jeff Jordan   of 98
 
I heard they were warning today....beautiful....pre-ipo build-up?

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To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (33)3/2/2001 11:58:54 AM
From: Alex Chilton   of 98
 
March 19th IPO per Maggie Reardon @ LightReading

Alex.

lightreading.com 

MARCH 01, 2001
PREVIOUS NEWS ANALYSIS

Agere Sets Pricing Date and Range

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This afternoon Agere Systems Inc., Lucent Technologies Inc.’s (NYSE: LU - message board) optical component spinoff, tentatively set its initial public offering for the week of March 19. The company plans to sell 500 million shares in a price range between $12 and $14, which should raise between $6 billion and $7 billion.

The company has revised its S-1 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission three times in the last month, changing the number of shares from 370 million to 500 million. But the price range has been lowered from $15-$20, keeping the size of the deal about the same.

After the IPO, Agere will officially no longer be a Lucent subsidiary. But Lucent will still control about 90 percent of the company’s voting rights and 72.3 percent of its shares (see Agere Aims for $8.5 Billion IPO ). Lucent is expected to divest this control in the second half of 2001.

But that won’t be the end of the Agere/Lucent connection. The two companies have entered into a three-year agreement that requires Lucent to purchase at least $800 million worth of products during the first year and at least $1 billion worth during each succeeding year, according to the S-1. Lucent has traditionally been Agere’s largest customer, accounting for about 25 percent of its sales in 2000.

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter is the lead underwriter, with Bear Stearns, J.P. Morgan & Co. (Nasdaq: JPM - message board), and Salomon Smith Barney co-managing the deal.

-- Marguerite Reardon, senior editor, Light Reading lightreading.com 

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To: Alex Chilton who started this subject3/6/2001 8:50:13 PM
From: Adam Nash   of 98
 
Agere IPO in 2 Weeks?
biz.yahoo.com 

Some doubt and speculation about a possible M&A out to this situation as opposed to IPO. We'll see.

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To: Alex Chilton who started this subject3/27/2001 4:50:24 PM
From: Adam Nash   of 98
 
As soon as someone sees the specifics of the pricing, please post it or a URL. I want to run the numbers for LU shareholders.

It looks like the price will be low, and I am seriously considering folding my LU position into Agere. LU shareholders loss (a low price forced by cash flow issues) can be AGR shareholders gain.

I don't expect the stock to trade strongly anytime soon, though, so no worries about getting in on day one.

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