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To: Mike Sendler who wrote (348)12/11/1996 4:06:00 PM
From: Sparky65
   of 2754
 
Anyone, Intel is up 7 on very positive news. They are at full capacity. My question is: Isn't INTC a customer of FSII. If so, does that do anything for FSI's revenue numbers? Maybe that is why the stock has been going up so much.

Any thoughts?

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To: Sparky65 who wrote (349)12/12/1996 12:30:00 AM
From: Kent Sarikaya
   of 2754
 
Sparky, FSI held very well today and looks very bullish. Intel expects pentium sales to increase by 10% in 1997 over previous estimates, they are going to build a new plant... cost, I think 1.2 billion. Those are the kind of indicators to look for and the recent book to bill jumps don't hurt either.

Dataquest should look over there analysis models. They are no better than the political polling companies... they were way off, even taking into account their margin of error in the recent election, and so far Dataquest has been just as wrong.

This morning on CNBC, they had all the bears on with smiles on their faces as the market was falling. One guy talked about how through out market history the average bull cycle was no more than 2.5 years and this one had gone on for 6 and that the market could plunge 50% and still be overvalued.

Now come on, think about that one 50% and STILL BE OVERVALUED, I couldn't stop laughing... no wonder these guys are BEARS. And looking at how the previuos model for bull cycles got smashed, he doesn't question his analysis models. So for him by his models, he's probably been out of the market 3.5 years. Think of how much growth he has missed and how many of his customers got burned and yet he is a guest on TV.

The past is exactly that, the past. What worked before, just doesn't hold up to what's going on now and it will take another 20 years before they figure it out and by then the 20 year bull cycle will be over.

Today we don't rely on yesterday's news being the best we can have. Rumors get resolved almost in a few hours instead of days. Individuals have almost as much access and power as the institutions, you have more educated investors and many sources of information. Even though the media all blurts the same song, if you look you... can find the truth. These guys just don't see this.

And let's face it, there is a worldwide change... and a major part of that is technology. Everything is going digital. That takes chips and higher, faster capacities. Who wants a 386 today? That was acceptable 3 years ago, not today. How about a 486? How about a Pentium 75? Last year, you could find Pentium 75's. That's the kind of change that is happening. Remember the first IBM PC's, then the 286, then the 386 and then the 486... that's where the 3 year cycle came from. But if you remember, the first Pentiums came in about 2 years after the 486. Now there are many more chip makers, and that is forcing the competition for ever cheaper and faster chips. This is making today's equipment obsolete in a much shorter time frame. Apples is releasing there 500 mhz machine soon. No more 33mhz to 66 to 75 to 100... we're just starting to leap frog. That is what's coming and there is no stopping it.

Yes, there will be corrections... some even scarry, look at what happened to techs... how many above $40 stocks did we see around $10. FSI was not alone. We have new technology in chips, but look at the demands the net is putting to our communications infrastructure. The big behemoth is about to go through changes to keep up. If not, cable and satellite are waiting. Go check out the new handheld pc's running windows ce, you'll be amazed at what exists today and it gives you a glimpse at what's to come. Those devices will need sharp bright color displays, higher capacity memory and storage... just to name a few.

You know memory prices dropped drastically and everyone saw the drop that came in techs because of it, but now the market is taking over... lower prices means higher sales and more units sold. That is what is confounding so many analysts, they forgot basic market rules. Affordable memory makes, windows ce and handheld pc's practical... it really opens up many new product lines, thus even adding more to sold units.

Go check out Video cards... 4 megs is not uncommon and not unafforbale anymore. It just goes on and on. Everytime I write one thing another pops in my head, I can't help but be optimistic.

My 75 year old Dad, cuts out Web addresses from ads or articles and has me get info for him. My 70 year old mom, who has broken English... gives me web sites from the TV she watches. Those www.whatever.com small print that appears in almost every form of media today is having the biggest impact that no advertising campaign could ever match. People realize that the Web is not just hype anymore, it is a major change in the way we communicate and do business and get entertainment. Wether it is WebTV, WebPhone or personal computer there are chips and technologies waiting to be created and used.

Have any of you heard of Investech, the much heralded newsletter... they have been out of the market and in money market funds the passed 3 years and are still calling for a bear market, THE LAST THREE YEARS.

There is money to be made in confusing investors, big money. Yesterday all you heard was that the market was up because investors felt the interest rates wouldn't change. Today the market drops and you hear that there is fear the rates will rise. This is all in 2 days. How many times has that happened that you can remember, I bet many.

The only real good show to watch, that is consistent and usually correct is Wall Street Week with Rukeyser. He has some of the best guests and they are usually right on the money. The one guy and I apologize for not remembering his name, he is the one that predicted the djia would hit 7000 by 1998 a few years back and was scoffed by all the pundits except Rukeyser. Anyways he said this bull market is even stronger than he thought, and would probably run longer and higher than what he predicted. He said he is working in adjusting his model. These are the kind of guys to listen to. He said, what was considered absurd at the time and has been proven correct, and his model if anything, was too conservative.

Sorry about all this venting the last few days. I just get so frustrated when I watch TV. I have cut way back, and get almost all my info off the net, but somedays I turn the set on and veg out and then regret doing so, at least all the news type shows... except Wall Street Week.

I appreciate the optimism and support you and Dan have been giving and I think our patience is about to be rewarded the next few years.

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To: David Rosenthal who wrote (339)12/12/1996 6:43:00 AM
From: Dan Turner
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I recall, technically, they DID make estimates for the year. They did not expect, in May, afaik, that they would also be taking a write down for layoffs and cutting of some unpromising projects. Moreover, they did warn investors, early last summer, that even though they expected to make the year's estimates, they saw weakness into FY'97.

If I'm right, they have never failed to be conservative and to issue warnings early whenever expectations appear to be too high.

Regards,

-DT

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (340)12/12/1996 6:47:00 AM
From: Dan Turner
   of 2754
 
Don, thanks for adding that information to the board. Absolutely, I "buy your analysis". I've posted on this subject a few times here already.

Regards,

-DT

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To: Sparky65 who wrote (343)12/12/1996 6:50:00 AM
From: Dan Turner
   of 2754
 
Sparky65, good question! Alas, I have no theory about how to predict a time frame for a price movement like this. Your guess would be as good as mine.

-DT


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To: Mike Sendler who wrote (348)12/12/1996 6:54:00 AM
From: Dan Turner
   of 2754
 
Mike, not sure what sort of information you are asking for. I don't really have much other than what's been published.

Maybe someone else.

Regards.

-DT

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To: Sparky65 who wrote (349)12/12/1996 6:58:00 AM
From: Dan Turner
   of 2754
 
INTC is a big customer of FSII. That's one of the reasons I've been so positive lately about FSII. Did you see all the announcements about fab expansion by INTC and about the projected expansion in microprocessor production and other chip production? Here's one:


[Newsbytes:News-1210.26] 12/10/96

****Microprocessor Chip Market To Climb 32 Percent

WASHINGTON, DC, U.S.A., 1996 DEC 10 (NB) -- By Bill Pietrucha and
Patrick McKenna. Worldwide microprocessor chip revenues already are
running 20 percent ahead of last year's levels, and are projected to
grow by 32 percent next year, according to a study released today by
Forward Concepts and Micrologic Research.

The study, "Processor97," forecasts 1996 microprocessor sales at
$17.142 million, up 20 percent from 1995 revenues of $14.279
million. The market study also forecasts a healthy 32 percent for
1997, to a $22.546 million level.

The study indicates that this year's microcontroller shipments will
also grow, reaching $11.482 million by year-end. This, the study's
author, Jack Quinn notes, is up seven percent from 1995's $10.736
million in shipments. Quinn, president of Micrologic Research, also
forecasts a 28 percent growth in shipments for 1997 to $14.701
million.

Digital signal processor (DSP) chip sales were up almost 39 percent
in 1996 to $2.397 million, the study states, while 1997 sales are
expected to continue growing at a 52 percent rate to $3.639 million.
Texas Instruments is currently building three separate fabrication
facilities in the Dallas, Texas area to accommodate projected growth
in the DSP market.

Forward Concepts' analyst, Will Strauss, told Newsbytes, "We think
there is an across the board growth in the microprocessor market.
PCs in corporate offices, small office/home offices and personal
home use are projected to grow in 1997. I think corporations are
now ready to accept Windows 95 and NT and that means having
powerful enough computers to run these systems."

The study also found microcontrollers sales growing by 7% in 1996
and jumping dramatically by 28% in 1997. "The use of
microcontrollers in automobiles is behind this strong growth," added
Strauss.

The 550-page study forecasts that by the year 2001, microprocessor
shipments will grow to over $49 billion, microcontroller shipments
will exceed $39 billion and DSP chips will pass the $12 billion
level. "The growth in the processor market would have been greater
in 1996 if the rest of the semiconductor market had not been so
weak," Quinn said.

The study also notes the overall slowdown in the semiconductor
market based on eighteen months of falling memory prices. "A lot of
semiconductor companies were affected by this dramatic change, but
the microprocessor market remained strong," added Strauss. Processor
97, the study, states microprocessor growth would have been even
stronger without the effects of a semiconductor slowdown.

One company that was not hurt by the slowdown was Intel, the report
noted, which had little competition for its Pentium and no
competition for its Pentium Pro processors in 1996, "Even Intel was
surprised by the strong demand for its microprocessors in 1996, and
went on to sell all the high-performance processors it could make,"
Quinn said.

The "Processor97" report is available from Forward Concepts for
$1,850 in North America and $1,950 elsewhere. Additional information
is available at Forward Concepts' Web site at
fwdconcepts.com or by calling 602-968-3759.

(199612/10/Press Contact: Will Strauss, Forward Concepts, tel 602-
968-3759. Reported by Newsbytes News Network:
newsbytes.com)
Copyright 1996 The Newsbytes News Network. All rights reserved.


AND HERE'S ANOTHER:


[Newsbytes:News-1210.18] 12/10/96


Intel Invests In Shanghai

BEIJING, CHINA, 1996 DEC 10 (NB) -- By Chih-Ho Yu & Ning Huang. US-
based Intel Corporation has announced an investment of US$99 million
to set up a flash-memory chip manufacturing plant in Shanghai's
Pudong Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone.

The manufactured chips will be used in mobile phones, digital
cameras as well as in computers, according to Intel officials.

The projected plant is expected to begin operation in mid-1998 and
it will employ 500 people during the startup stage. Intel expects to
hire 90 percent of the plant's staff locally.

(19961210/Reported by Newsbytes News Network
newsbytes.com)

AND YET ANOTHER

[Newsbytes:News-1209.36] 12/9/96

Electronic Equipment Factory Sales Top $295Bil In 3rd Qtr

WASHINGTON, DC, U.S.A., 1996 DEC 9 (NB) -- By Bill Pietrucha. It
looks like 1996 will be a double digit growth year for electronics.
US factory sales of electronics equipment and products hit $295.6
billion for the first nine months of 1996, a ten percent increase
over last year's nine-month total of $269.4 billion, according to
preliminary estimates released this morning by the Electronic
Industries Association (EIA).

"Based on these sales figures, we're optimistic that the year will
end with double digit growth," EIA President Peter F. McCloskey said
in releasing the figures.

According to the raw data collected by the US Department of Commerce
and compiled by EIA's Marketing Services Department,
telecommunications electronics led the growth curve, jumping 16
percent from 1995's first nine month sales of $38.4 billion, to
$44.6 billion in the same period this year.

Computers and peripherals sales also showed double digit growth,
climbing from $53.2 billion in 1995 to $60.7 billion for comparable
year-to-date periods, an increase of 14 percent.

Both the electronic components and other related products categories
tracked by EIA fell just short of double digits, with each category
increasing by nine percent.

Electronic components sales reached $82.4 billion, up from the $75.5
billion in sales in 1995's first nine months, while the other
related products category rose from $41.7 billion to $45.3 billion
in the respective year-to-date periods.

Electromedical equipment sales and industrial electronics sales
climbed eight percent and seven percent, respectively, between the
first three quarters of 1995 and 1996, respectively, according to
the data.

Electromedical equipment climbed from $7.2 billion to $7.7 billion,
while industrial electronics reached $26.6 billion from $25 billion
over the two year-to-date periods.

The US-produced consumer electronics sector also saw a five percent
rise, from $6.9 billion to $7.3 billion in the comparable three-
quarter time frame. EIA includes domestically manufactured audio,
video, and blank media products in the US produced consumer
electronics category.

According to EIA, "substantial amounts of products included in the
telecommunications and computers/peripherals categories are sold
through consumer channels, but are not separately identified in
these data."

Signaling the continued drawdown of military expenditures, the
defense communications sector was the only negative part of the EIA
picture, dropping two percent to $20.7 billion, from 1995 three
quarter sales of $21.2 billion. Defense communications includes
specialized and defense related communications and tracking devices.

(19961209/Press Contact: Mark V. Rosenker, Electronic Industries
Association, 703-907-7790. Reported by Newsbytes News Network:
newsbytes.com)









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To: Stratajema who wrote (342)12/12/1996 7:42:00 AM
From: Dan Turner
   of 2754
 
David, thanks for the URLs. Note, however, that the Dataquest item is dated OCTOBER 15.

Secondly, I concur with Kent that margins on PC sales don't have much relationship to overall chip demand.

Regards,

-DT

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To: Kent Sarikaya who wrote (350)12/12/1996 9:00:00 AM
From: Teri Skogerboe
   of 2754
 
Kent, I think your comment "if you look....you can find..the truth" hits the nail on the head. Good times are just around the corner, in my bullish opinion. Teri

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To: Dan Turner who wrote (351)12/12/1996 9:49:00 AM
From: David Rosenthal
   of 2754
 
Thanks for the clarification.

dave

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