Politics | Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices


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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (123962)9/15/2000 6:01:04 PM
From: Pravin Kamdar   of 716404
 
Could be that Scumbria had to (or decided to) stop posting after his identity was uncovered on Aces.

Pravin.

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To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (123989)9/15/2000 6:29:45 PM
From: Cirruslvr   of 716404
 
ignore EOM

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To: Duncan Baird who started this subject9/15/2000 6:46:40 PM
From: richard surckla   of 716404
 
Something to ponder...

Monday morning opening prices and Friday afternoons closings prices for the following...
.
MU open @ $68.06 closed @ $59.13 Down -$8.94
.
RMBS open @ $75.52 closed @ $79.52 Up +$4.21
.
AMD open @ $31.56 closed @ $27.75 Down -$3.81
.
INTC open @ $65.56 closed @ 57.52 Down -$8.05

The fact that RAMBUS was up $4.21 by the end of the week should be a very strong signal as to where this whole thing is headed. I hope you had your money on the winner. If not look for the same thing next week. Good investing to all.

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To: tejek who wrote (123971)9/15/2000 6:55:00 PM
From: Charles R   of 716404
 
Ted,

<First we do not know if sales were lost in Q2 due to infrastructure availability problems...that's yours (and some others) assumption.>

There is A LOT of factual data to back this up. If you choose to ignore it that is fine. I have been through this debate too many times and have nothing to discuss on this topic with anyone who does not buy the argument.

<Bottom line...I believe that market forces, the street's biases and Intel are having a much more significant impact on AMD's stock than infrastructure availability. >

I agree. I think the stock price has to do with investor sentiment about AMD. The street is too unrelated to minutia like infrastructure. I care about it because I live and breath the business. What I am talking about now has more impact on next year than this year. I pointed to the infrastructure problems as early as April (or even before that) when the stock was trading near its peak.

<As an aside, when I got my Duron 700 in early July, the owner of the shop said he had no difficulty getting MB's and chipsets. I know his shop is not an OEM with the demands of an OEM, and I know that that doesn't change the fact that AMD lost design wins for Back to School with its June launch of the Duron. However, it does indicate that the launch was not just so much vaporware as some would suggest.>

Clearly the processor was there so anyone who says it was vapor is out of their mind or just clowing around (you know who I am talking about).

Chuck

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To: Charles R who wrote (122149)9/15/2000 7:35:47 PM
From: Petz   of 716404
 
Chuck, just to agree with Ted on the "Q1 lost sales" issue, the 10Q reports do not support the idea that significant sales were lost due to infrastructure issues.

Date........Finished Goods Inventory
12/26/99 $ 90,834,000
04/02/00 $ 92,814,000
07/01/00 $ 82,048,000

Suppose there were an additional 200,000 Athlons in inventory at end of Q2. Even if valued at $30 cost, that would be $6M of additional inventory. This would imply that all other inventories dropped by nearly $17M during the period, not likely for a firm whose sales were growing.

Petz

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To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (123989)9/15/2000 7:35:53 PM
From: brushwud   of 716404
 
Could be that Scumbria had to (or decided to) stop posting after his identity was uncovered on Aces.

Nope, that's not his identity. He signed an SI posting once with his real first name. Guess that other guy goes off a little half-cocked.

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To: Petz who wrote (123993)9/15/2000 8:21:30 PM
From: Charles R   of 716404
 
Petz,

<Suppose there were an additional 200,000 Athlons in inventory at end of Q2. Even if valued at $30 cost, that would be $6M of additional inventory. This would imply that all other inventories dropped by nearly $17M during the period, not likely for a firm whose sales were growing.>

I am not sure where you got the finished goods inventory but that does not matter. Finished goods is just one stage where inventories can be. Look at total inventory from quarterly statements. The absolute inventory went up from ~205M in Q1 to ~256M Q2.

Please feel free to comment on how this inventory level went up.

Chuck

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To: Charles R who wrote (123992)9/15/2000 8:41:05 PM
From: hmaly   of 716404
 
Charles,,, RE..<<There is A LOT of factual data to back this up. If you choose to ignore it that is fine. I have been through this debate too many times and have nothing to discuss on this topic with anyone who does not buy the argument. <<<<

Chuck, since you couldn't provide any links I will provide you with one..http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=14394603<<

Read this sentence.

<<A couple interesting things in the 10Q itself:

o AMD has $23M of "equity investments" (any Intel stock?)
o Finished goods inventory DROPPED 12% from 4/2 to 7/1/00 ($ 92,814,000 to $ 82,048,000) Kind of makes it unlikely that there was a huge overhang of Durons and TBirds waiting for KT133.

Petz <<<<


Kinda shoots a bunch of holes in your theory, but then again you are probably getting used to it.

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To: tejek who wrote (123903)9/15/2000 8:59:23 PM
From: Yogizuna   of 716404
 
I love it when the hourly, daily and weekly charts get this oversold and many people are still bearish on the stock, as it gets my itchy finger ready to pull the buy trigger when I see the whites of their bearish eyes..... <lol> The only fly in the ointment here is the monthly chart, which could still use some more work on the downside. About the worse case price scenario I see for AMD in this correction/bear market phase is about the 23 level. Have a nice weekend everybody! Old Yogizuna

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To: richard surckla who wrote (123991)9/15/2000 9:09:37 PM
From: tejek   of 716404
 
The fact that RAMBUS was up $4.21 by the end of the week should be a very strong signal as to where this whole thing is headed.

The Naz is getting sued?

ted

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