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To: Kerry Phineas who wrote (22949)10/25/1997 8:59:00 PM
From: mike iles
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Kerry, Who was Joel Parkinson and do you know where he went? TIA

regards, Mike

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To: Trey McAtee who wrote (22968)10/25/1997 9:14:00 PM
From: mike iles
   of 53901
 
Trey, Interesting comments ... does anyone know what Tyler Lowery is doing these days??

regards, Mike

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To: mike iles who wrote (22975)10/25/1997 10:26:00 PM
From: mike iles
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Kerry, It's OK, I found Parkinson in this week's Barron's. He's running a company called 8X8. The article is an interview with Bill Fleckenstein, "Battered and Bearish" ... interesting stuff.

Earlie, I remembered your comment about deflation being the real threat. Also in Barron's this week in case you didn't see it is an interview with an economist who talks about the threat of deflation, how it's already happened in the Far East ... just too much capacity, producers have no control of prices, etc... Didn't mention any specific industries but memory fits his description to a t.

Barron's this week should really be called Bearron's!

'MU ... tanks for the memory'

regards, Mike

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To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (22959)10/25/1997 10:54:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug
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aloha, gtw is toast. the bulls might not realize it yet as they redefine slow on the uptake almost daily. btw, it closed down. prudential upgraded gtw? sounds like that dufus that upgraded mu at $49 about 2 months ago ;-)

probably some inventory to sell to some suckers.

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To: ratan lal who wrote (22963)10/25/1997 10:57:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug
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>>Fortunately my 25 puts are free.<<

ratan, nothing is free. it is your money now. wins aren't free just like losses aren't fake.

always make the best marginal decision you can based upon it being your money. my decision is to hold the puts for $4 or until expiration. if things get real ugly then i might hold on for another buck or two.

i change my mind daily and will post if i do.

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To: DavidG who wrote (22933)10/25/1997 11:16:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug
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david, here's another article with dram pricing below achilles:

techweb.cmp.com

enough with the nonsense now ;-)

show us one recent news article that states that dram is higher than achilles.

i've posted 2 news articles and jerry's experience that undermine your contention that achilles is too low.

btw, 64 mb is $23. that means any rally in 16 mb is limited to about $5.50 at the absolute maximimum.

not good news, bro. these are facts. reality. not opinion.

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To: Trey McAtee who wrote (22884)10/25/1997 11:55:00 PM
From: Carl R.
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Trey, you wrote: "all the above i can forgive, but the statements regarding our armchair qbacking of mr. appleton is unforgivable. a first year business student could outperform him. he should not be in the position he is in. if he is doing such a good job, why has the stock dropped from 60?"

Let me reverse the question: If MU is doing such a bad job, why is MU still in business? I'd venture to guess that MU is currently the most profitable DRAM company in the world, because I doubt any others are profitable at all.

Clearly MU is the world's low cost producer of 16MB DRAMs, just as they were the world's low cost producer of 4MB DRAMs a year ago. When the situation arises that 64MB chips become more profitable than 16MB chips it is reasonable to conclude that MU will be the world's low cost producer of 64MB DRAMs. People on this thread a year ago ridiculed MU for still making 4MB DRAMs, just as they now no doubt think that MU can't make 64MB chips. But let's be honest, the competition has gone to 64MB not because the 64 MB chips are more profitable, but because they can't compete with MU at the lower density. When MU moves to 64MB, where will they go? 256MB?

This is a business where the low cost producer will win in the end. Other companies may stay in business for awhile with the support of their goverments, but sooner or later the low cost producer will win when the economy of the competition reaches a state that they can no longer keep funding a money sink-pit.

That said, is MU a buy? Well, I don't own any, nor am I short. I usually don't take a position, though I went long at 32 on their previous run up, but sold at 40. I shorted them at the top, but covered after making about 3 points. Oh well. I am currently comtemplated buying them at some point, but I am not there yet.

In any case, I am not advocating buying them, nor selling them. I am just arguing that the only reason they are still in business in this extremely competitive business (without government support) is that they are one of the best run businesses I know of. When it comes to cutting costs and being the low-cost producer, no one is better, and therefore it will be difficult or impossible for foreign competition to put them out of business.

Good luck, with your investments (or shorts),

Carl

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To: TREND1 who wrote (22956)10/25/1997 11:58:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed
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Larry to get a real bear market in the semis (like the decline that ended about July 1996), we need to break a strong support area in the 290 to 300 on the SOX, we are awefully close, and my bet is that we will go through that. Yet, I do not see signs of a general bear market, so rotation will once again be the name of game. Networking anyone? Maybe Biotechs or the big pharmaceuticals?

By the way, if we get this semis bear, MU might end up this time near it real book value, it is still much lower than the last abyss.

Zeev

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To: Peter Shaw who wrote (22964)10/26/1997 12:08:00 AM
From: TREND1
   of 53901
 
Peter
You wrote:
<<Well we got the 10 million shares as I was looking for>>

Peter
I do not look at vol in general, but high vol on days like
Friday, do help support MU=28 as a bottom.
Larry Dudash

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (22982)10/26/1997 12:24:00 AM
From: TREND1
   of 53901
 
Zeev
What I find interesting is how far the Sox has dropped
compared to Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc, etc.
It's a bear market when SOX is below 200 Day Moving Average.
Note: The last SOX "bear" lasted 9 months.....which is the
normal length of a Dow Jones bear market.
It is a long time til next summer(g)
Larry Dudash

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