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To: Kerry Phineas who wrote (22958)10/25/1997 5:15:00 PM
From: Mintu Pal
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So you are an Actuary. Is there third?

Regarding TAKEOVER:

A company with efficient production capacity -- good market share atleast in one of the products -- currently in financial turmoil -- reasonable Book Value. Always becomes a target of takeover. I have personally experienced this situation. It does not mean that I am saying it is happening, but I will not be surprised if it happens.

Happy trading.

Mintu.

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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (22931)10/25/1997 6:26:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo
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Skeeter, Kurlak having a number that "jived" comes as no surprise, since IMHO he is the master of what the Bee Gees might call "jive squawkin'"

And while were on the subject...

...am I the only one terrified by the news that Saturday Night Fever is being turned into a musical for the London stage?

Good trading,

Tom

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To: DavidG who wrote (22916)10/25/1997 6:41:00 PM
From: Trey McAtee
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david--


here is it simply...MU has said that contract (thus, their ASP) pricing follows spot closely. this is normal in an oversupply situation. companies order dram on a smaller, more incremental basis since they may not need the parts immediately, and they can reduce their average COGS.

now, as for spot indicators we have the AICE, which i like, allthough its usually lags spot by a week or more or achilles which i have come to depend on more. i think achilles is in reality not too far behind spot, and may in fact be exact.

so, if contract prices are following spot, then with semi accurate spot prices, you can extrapolate ASP based on what the company says about the growth they are expecting in the next q (the funny thing is they stick to those targets pretty closely) as well as cost reductions. so, say they made 30 million units last q, and they are expoecting 10% more this q. that gives you the number you need to account for, 33 million devices. now all you need are the prices, which you can get from a variety of sources. using this you can build a pretty accurate model of MUs ASP.

there isnt a complex formula, and in all honesty i expected them to play soem tricks with the accounting. i was honestly thinking that it might be as high as $0.38 or as low as $0.28. i split the difference.

you have consistently mocked our watching achilles, and predicting EPS based on that. my statement was meant not as a pissing contest, but simply to point out what we were able to do with the meager tools at our disposal. in point of fact, i do not recall you ever asking that question directly. you have instead thought us stupid that we would reduce something so complex to something simple. the key is that it isnt that complex. the fact remains...if TK had used achilles he would have been more accurate.

is this exact? no. i was lucky. there were a million things they could have done to beat me. however, i was pretty sure (99%) that they would still be within the range i thought was logical at the time. the great thing was that the upper end of the range was still below the analyst estimates.

did you ever stop to think that maybe you should be asking the analysts what they are using to be SO wrong? i mean, these people are paid millions for being inaccurate. instead of taking the bears to task on this, maybe you should ask the 'professionals' what they are doing.


good luck to all,
trey

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To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (22940)10/25/1997 7:42:00 PM
From: Trey McAtee
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bryan--

thanks forthe link. it was very interesting. one thing that caught me, is what one of them said toward the end...something about how MU isnt a badly run company, its just that the business they are in sucks.

i think this is a critical point that few seem willing to address. MU has world class engineers and technical expertise. however, when you combine that with an unimaginative management, you get very little.

now, i'm not saying that ALL the managers are bad, just that they do not seem to have the foresight to either get out of the business or become number one. management is congratulated for their efforts at keeping the company together...we are rewarding them for doing a maintence job. what i think the company needs is someone with the vision to reengineer the entire company. for example:

problem: MU has difficulty competing with asian firms who are supported by government and massive conglomerates.
solution: if you cant beat them, join them. this is what TXN did and i think it is one of the reasons TI's stock price is so much higher than MU (granted DSPs help<G>). set up manufacturing JVs with some of the asian companies. i mean, MU has the talent they need. and it gives MU a stronger position worldwide.

problem: DRAM is a commodity business.
solution: exit it at least in part. their diversification strategy has been a joke. RICs and FPDs are going nowhere. SRAm is another type of hell, but its almost as bad as DRAM. IDT converted SRAM fabs to processors, and there are a bunch of fabless semi companies that pay through the nose for manufacturing. also, MU could start making small runs of specialty chips like FPGAs.

these are just a few...i would like others to post their ideas too. what pisses me off is that this is a really good company, but it is saddled with management that knows little other than how to keep things together during the bad times, and over spend during the good times. in the semi industry, you build when things are bad so that when they turn around you have lots of capacity and can crush competition. MU and others do just the reverse..their over building causes the problem.

when i was in elementary school, many of my friends who got A's on their report cards were rewarded by their parents with money. i asked my father why he never did that for me. his response was that i had done what was expected...that an A was a very good grade, but it was what i was capable of and what was expected of me. you dont reward people for just keeping their heads above water. you should reward those who go above and beyond your expectations. now, i am not saying that MU should ditch everything that has worked in the past, just suggesting that they should reapply it to different situations. for instance, insteadof working on 64Mb parts, they should jump ahead and MASTER 256Mb, and release it early at a substantially lower than expected cost. if they do this, then the asians will never have time to enjoy 64Mb profits, and they will be way behind on 256Mb parts. they will be on their first volume generation while MU will be on their second or third, with SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER costs. they could kill samsung right out of the gate.

i think that if tyler lowery had stayed as CEO, MU would be well on its way to being a 20 billion (sales) a year company.

good luck to all,
trey

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To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (22966)10/25/1997 7:57:00 PM
From: Trey McAtee
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thomas-

>>...am I the only one terrified by the news that Saturday Night Fever is being turned into a musical for the London stage?<<

no, you're not alone, but it is not a complete suprise. when i was in high school, there was a drama teacher in our UIL district that told our teacher she wanted to do a one act play version of it. now, can you imagine that? but then again it isnt suprising in light of the fact that she was a big fan of dinner theater<G>.

good luck to all,
trey

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To: TREND1 who wrote (22955)10/25/1997 8:09:00 PM
From: MR. PANAMA (I am a PLAYER)
   of 53901
 
You mean who WE really are...Bateman is a conglomerate..hahaha

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To: Mintu Pal who wrote (22954)10/25/1997 8:14:00 PM
From: MR. PANAMA (I am a PLAYER)
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Mintu...thanks that cleared up a lot....

Ratan....do you second that motion...and is Mintu your Pal...hahaha

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To: Mintu Pal who wrote (22957)10/25/1997 8:21:00 PM
From: MR. PANAMA (I am a PLAYER)
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No no one is buying MU...a lot of the semis are due for a big bounce but we have to see if the bears rumors of the hong kong peg breaks this weekend (i hardly thing it will)...if the HK mkt remains above the lows of last week i think we can have a sustained rally....earnings for most companies have been really good but due to other things..Greenspan,Reno,HK etc the mkt has not been able to appreciate it....

The fact that DRAM is falling is not new...and is not the only criteria for MU 's price...it went to 60 recently and can do it again....many stocks are at levels way beyond where their earnings would predict them...

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To: Trey McAtee who wrote (22968)10/25/1997 8:22:00 PM
From: Mr. Aloha
   of 53901
 
Good post.

How do you make a 256Mb? You use an excimer laser down to approx. .1 microns or so. :-) (CYMI)

----------------------------------

Among other major technical challenges in 0.1-micron and below wafer processing is selecting a new lithography technology - X-ray, direct write electron beam or extreme ultraviolet - to succeed venerable optical tools, Melliar-Smith said. "Excimer laser deep UV at 193-nanometer wavelength will carry us down to 0.13- to 0.1-micron feature size. Some have proposed calcium flouride excimer lasers with smaller wavelength - but there isn't enough calcium flouride material in the world to make production tools."

techweb.cmp.com

Aloha

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To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (22966)10/25/1997 8:50:00 PM
From: MR. PANAMA (I am a PLAYER)
   of 53901
 
GOOD NIGHT AMERICAS.. I have that Saturday Night Fever...

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