Jonas,
Thanks for the technical analysis. I only want to point out some good analogies to this debate. The most important thing to remember is that this is business, not engineering.
First, VCRs. Beta was better than VHS, but Beta dies a quick death. This was because of poor marketing. Second, Apple. Talk about killing the golden goose. They could have been Microsoft. Theyre not. Bad decision not to clone. Good technical merits do not equal market success. Sometimes, its quite the opposite. Little RMTR is unlikely to solve the SDRAM problem for the industry.
Intel sets the standards. They will push RDRAM and it is only a matter of time.
At best ESDRAM will get RMTR some cash flow while it builds on FRAM. They need to throw mountains of money at their ferro product to get it to market, and to market FRAM itself. Even if SDRAM survives over DRDRAM, woh cares about HSDRAM or ESDRAM or whatever. They still have very little product.
The best thing Ive heard is that Fu and RMTR have produced samples of their 1 Meg chip. I guess that theyre still a long way away in terms of process technology to making this thing work and yield well, but its a start. In my view, they need to start hitting multi meg chips to be taken seriously by the big guys.
I read an interesting artivle that said that low-k tech becomes a requirement only when you get to .13 micron design rules. Theyre still at .18 or .25, but the .13 will come within a couple of years. At this point, the capacitor needs to be shrunk, and low-k materials will allow for a 95% reduction in cap size. Just wait until low-k technology becomes the competitive advantage for the big DRAM producers. Remember, those guys play a yield game, where the best tech and the fastest to produce at smallest dimensions wins. Many years away still, but RMTR COULD be positioned for that situation. That is, holding the technology that the whole industry will look to. BUT, BST could be the tech, not PZT, which RMTR knows.There are other competitors. Who knows, dont make investment decisions on that basis, I say this as a technology hound, not an investor. I personally cant wait for computers that dont boot up. MRAM is a pipe dream (IMHO). Too much money in current technology.
Sure, someone could willfully violate the patent, Ramtron couldnt afford the lawyer to prosecute. But that assumes someone in the market wants the product, and I have seen no evidence of this kind of "pull".
Good luck all.
DJD |
