Technology Stocks | Speedfam [SFAM] Lovers Unite !


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To: SemiBull who wrote (3552)4/14/2000 11:06:00 PM
From: Jerome   of 3736
 
Opportunities out of chaos.

The haircut SFAM has been given since the earning report is somewhat too short, given the outlook for the next quarter.
At the current price around 14 it might be a better play to buy some options going forward. The July 12 1/2's can be had for 3 1/2 to 4. Its tough to buy in a down market like this but its the only way to recover going forward. If the current trend on SFAM continues until July. I'll be buying the October 5's :)

This has always been my worst fear. That the .coms would get their proper valuation and drag the rest of the market with it.

Regards, Jerome

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To: Jerome who wrote (3553)4/28/2000 11:42:00 AM
From: Joseph Beltran   of 3736
 
SFAM definitely gets the award for semi-equipment dog stock of the year. Their management should be summarily fired.

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To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (3554)4/28/2000 7:03:00 PM
From: Jerome   of 3736
 
Joe, no need for SFAM to yet rally strongly. Earnings are about 6 weeks off. I would expect this stock to get back to the mid 20's by that time. At this point the options on SFAM represent a better value than the stock. The July 12 1/2's would be my choice. They closed today at 4 1/4. The second advantage of these options is that if the stock rallies to the mid 20's then the options can be converted to stock and covered calls will yield another few points.

Have a good week-end

Jerome

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To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (3554)4/29/2000 2:48:00 AM
From: SemiBull   of 3736
 
one man's trash is another man's treasure. :) didn't you once own IFMX? if memory serves me - and there is NO guarantee in that regard - that was the theme of several of your(?) posts back then, but perhaps i am confusing you with someone else.

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To: SemiBull who wrote (3556)4/29/2000 12:58:00 PM
From: Joseph Beltran   of 3736
 
semi-bull, no, I have owned IFMX. I've owned BRKS since the high teens, many, many shares, and I have traded many semi equipment stocks over the past 2-3 years. SFAM stands out as a dog among them. still watching it, though. any idea when earnings (or non-earnings) will be announced?

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To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (3557)4/29/2000 1:29:00 PM
From: SemiBull   of 3736
 
"I have owned IFMX."

I thought I remembered your insight a while back. I should note that I am a true long term investor, so perhaps my comments will pose a conflict with your investment strategies.

"I've owned BRKS since the high teens, many, many shares, and I have traded many semi equipment stocks over the past 2-3 years. SFAM stands out as a dog among them."

I ahve done well with several equip stocks too, including BRKS. My portfolio is substantially weighted in this area, so the past month is an advertisement for diversification. Too bad I can't spell it all that well. :o) From this long term investor's perspective, the Asian flu and SFAM's lack of speed in integrating IPEC gave AMAT a window and gorilla-d their way through. Having said that, SFAM is by far undervalued. As with IFMX way back at sub 5 (and even now at 10ish), the Street is in "show me" mode. Technically, their tools are very competitive and they are getting significant wins and follow ons - Samsung, Silterra and Intel. Can't give you the intermediate perspective, but if you hold for 12 months, you will be rewarded IMHO.

"any idea when earnings (or non-earnings) will be announced?"

Their fourth quarter ends something like June 4thish, and with it being end of the year, results won't be announced probably until mid-to late July. I expect the Street will start upping their estimates close to the earnings announcement (pre or post) assuming no major changes in the global economy. So, the real run probably wont start until after AMAT's earnings at the earliest.

Hope spring has hit Buffalo....SemiBull

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To: SemiBull who wrote (3558)4/30/2000 12:27:00 PM
From: Joseph Beltran   of 3736
 
semi-bull, sorry, I meant to say that I have never owned IFMX. I will look into it, though. Thanks for the earnings info on SFAM. I am definitely in a "show me the money" mode with respect to SFAM and I think that is also the prevailing view among analysts (not that I much care about what they have to say). If I had confidence in th performance of SFAM management going forward I might agree with you that SFAM in undervalued here but as it stands right now they (SFAM management) has simply not shown me anything which would deserve a vote of confidence. we are in the biggest and baddest upcycle that this industry has EVER seen and SFAM is still in the red. what makes you so positive about their future performance to claim that it is undervalued here?

regards.

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To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (3559)4/30/2000 2:38:00 PM
From: SemiBull   of 3736
 
Joseph,

"we are in the biggest and baddest upcycle that this industry has EVER seen and SFAM is still in the red."

As are a whole host of other companies is this cyclical sector.

"what makes you so positive about their future performance to claim that it is undervalued here?"

See earlier posts and press releases since September of last year. Do you know much about CMP? SFAM or IPEC history? Asian flu? Bottom line, my "confidence" is based on the future business they've been awarded, their healthy backlog, and their installed CMP base which given their acquisition of IPEC, is still probably the largest in their niche.

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To: SemiBull who wrote (3560)5/1/2000 3:58:00 AM
From: FLSTF97   of 3736
 
I think that they have the potential to generate positive numbers sometime in the not to distant future, but when the dust settles, I think it will become very clear how much market share they've lost.

They can no doubt live off the installed base (look at Strassbaugh!)for quite a while. But meaningful growth will likely be lacking. In an environment where they have an installed base and the user need to ramp capacity quickly it should be easy for them to get orders.

My impression listening to the customers is that AMAT is winning market share and SFAM is loosing it. Ebara is making more noise outside of Japan (but it doesn't seem to be capturing many new customers that I have heard.) Lam's piquing interest, but the 2 or 3 machines are lost in the noise for market share.

So the long term question is whether they can do something to capture more market share. About a year ago they announced some new system to use the 3M abrasive that was to be prototyped last fall. I haven't heard anything since, did I miss something.

FATBOY

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To: FLSTF97 who wrote (3561)5/1/2000 5:58:00 AM
From: SemiBull   of 3736
 
"They can no doubt live off the installed base (look at Strassbaugh!)for quite a while."

They cannot? I am not sure what business really can, but SFAM's installed base does include Intel.

"So the long term question is whether they can do something to capture more market share."

I assume you are including the sizeable orders from Samsung and Silterra in determining whether they can capture "more" market share.

As a side note, SFAM was ranked very high in a recent Valueline.

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