OUTLOOK FOR NASDAQ AND S&P:
Having completed my weekly analysis, the basic outlook is pretty much the same as I posted to Zeev on Saturday (32692): Zeev re: "we are rapidly approaching (time wise) the late February/early March bottom."
I'm in the process of doing my weekend analysis, but signs of an upturn in Long-Term Stock Market Expectations (1.5 to 2.5 month lead) are starting to emerge. The comparable Nasdaq indicator shows some slight evidence of improvement as well. The bottom in sentiment seems centered at the start of February, therefore, I see an important low between mid-March and mid-April, with the Nasdaq downtrend continuing to be deeper until then (as I predicted two weeks ago). After that, I agree that we'll start a new rally phase.
The shorter range outlook is cloudy, so I'll say somewhere close to neutral for the next week or so. The Nasdaq is mildly oversold on a short term basis. If it rallies close to the top of its descending trend line near 1800, I'll probably close out my Nasdaq position. The 3 Barron's sentiment measures I follow have dropped to an average of 31% bullish, with 30% the intermediate term oversold threshhold, so we're starting to approach an oversold condition. |
