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 Technology Stocks | Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)


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To: etchmeister who wrote (25060)12/23/2011 10:09:42 AM
From: Gottfried   of 25275
 
You did not change the way how you report the data - correct?
correct

ultimately it boils down to how equipment stocks are valued - but it takes time
and time is money

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To: etchmeister who wrote (25058)12/27/2011 8:52:40 PM
From: etchmeister   of 25275
 
It now appears AMAT price is in synch with bookings perhaps even trailing bookings.
It looks like "macro drivers" are becoming more important relative to the self inflicted up and down turns we experienced in the past - I recall semi downturns while macro was doing fine - yes the times they are a changin:
youtube.com 

Q3 was the bottom for chip equipment orders, based on his “checks,” and revenue probably is hitting bottom this quarter (he’s estimating $892.4 million in revenue), as customers return to placing orders: “Our checks indicate that TSMC, Samsung Foundry, UMC and Global Foundries are all participating in the order parade in C4Q11.”

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From: etchmeister1/5/2012 4:20:18 PM
   of 25275
 
Semiconductors Won’t Shine Until the Second Quarter: Analyst
January 3, 2012 By RSS Feed Leave a Comment

10 years ago they would have called the peak....

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To: Gottfried who wrote (25061)1/5/2012 7:28:44 PM
From: robert b furman   of 25275
 
Hi G and etch,

Time is money,but precious little has been in favor short of Goog and AAPL.

Dividend paying stocks have individually been sought after by fixed income types as treasuries are so low in yield.

I saw on Bloomberg that healthcare stocks as a sector were up big in 2011.I don't really follow them and they may have been killed prior to Obamacare getting passed.

One thing for sure they're not being hurt by Obamacare.

With the consolidation that has occured this year - there surely are fewer shares in the sector to attract money.

Just think no more Vsea or Nvls,granted Lam issued shares.

I still think if the execs would quit the ESOP dilution - the shares they have would be multi baggers again.

Remember when earnings and growth were the magic that created wealth.

Screw the non gaap and get to gaap.

I've owned orcl and they just state gaap- they are up over a double.

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (25064)1/6/2012 11:27:48 AM
From: etchmeister   of 25275
 
.I don't really follow them and they may have been killed prior to Obamacare getting passed.

1.) Why are health care cost less in Canada compared to US?
Canada's health system beats U.S. in cost and results | Economic ...
www.epi.org/publication/webfeatures_snapshots_20071205/
Dec 4, 2007 – As the chart below reveals, the cost gap between the United States and Canada has only widened since 1993, and per capita health care ...

2.) Since when are Canadians "Socialists"?

Health care in Canada
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia




Under Lester Pearson's Liberal government, Canada's health care was expanded through the Medical Care Act, or Medicare to provide near universal coverage to all Canadians 'according to their need for such services and irrespective of their ability to pay'. [1].






Tommy Douglas' (centre left) number one concern was the creation of Medicare. In the summer of 1962, Saskatchewan became the centre of a hard-fought struggle between the provincial government, the North American medical establishment, and the province's physicians, who brought things to a halt with a doctors' strike.


Health care in Canada is delivered through a publicly funded health care system, which is mostly free at the point of use and has most services provided by private entities. [2] It is guided by the provisions of the Canada Health Act. [3] The government assures the quality of care through federal standards. The government does not participate in day-to-day care or collect any information about an individual's health, which remains confidential between a person and his or her physician. Canada's provincially based Medicare systems are cost-effective partly because of their administrative simplicity. In each province each doctor handles the insurance claim against the provincial insurer. There is no need for the person who accesses health care to be involved in billing and reclaim. Private insurance is only a minimal part of the overall health care system. Competitive practices such as advertising are kept to a minimum, thus maximizing the percentage of revenues that go directly towards care. In general, costs are paid through funding from income taxes, although British Columbia is the only province to impose a fixed monthly premium which is waived or reduced for those on low incomes. [4] There are no deductibles on basic health care and co-pays are extremely low or non-existent (supplemental insurance such as Fair Pharmacare may have deductibles, depending on income).

A health card is issued by the Provincial Ministry of Health to each individual who enrolls for the program and everyone receives the same level of care. [5] There is no need for a variety of plans because virtually all essential basic care is covered, including maternity and infertility problems. Depending on the province, dental and vision care may not be covered but are often insured by employers through private companies. In some provinces, private supplemental plans are available for those who desire private rooms if they are hospitalized. Cosmetic surgery and some forms of elective surgery are not considered essential care and are generally not covered. These can be paid out-of-pocket or through private insurers. Health coverage is not affected by loss or change of jobs, as long as premiums are up to date, and there are no lifetime limits or exclusions for pre-existing conditions.

Pharmaceutical medications are covered by public funds for the elderly or indigent, [6] or through employment-based private insurance. Drug prices are negotiated with suppliers by the federal government to control costs. Family physicians are chosen by individuals. If a patient wishes to see a specialist or is counseled to see a specialist, a referral can be made by a GP. Preventive care and early detection are considered important and yearly checkups are encouraged. Early detection not only extends life expectancy and quality of life, but cuts down overall costs.

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To: etchmeister who wrote (25063)1/6/2012 2:56:29 PM
From: etchmeister   of 25275
 
It sure looks like (AMAT) stock price is nowadays somewhat behind the curve...
Message 27865384

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From: Gottfried1/7/2012 2:40:31 PM
3 Recommendations   of 25275
 
SIA November ww chip sales

SIA data
sia-online.org 

charts
ww chip sales with SEMI equipment bookings
ww chip sales and y-o-y change
ww chip sales change with SEMI equipment bookings

screencast.com 

RSS feed available on the screencast page above








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To: Gottfried who wrote (25067)1/8/2012 1:40:21 PM
From: Kirk ©1 Recommendation   of 25275
 
It is possible that if what SIA said "2011 could be a recessionary year" and if bookings continue to work higher, that we are starting the next up cycle. Our semi capx stocks certainly peaked out early last year when all looked good.... the first indicator of a troubled economy ahead I think.

If you look at that cycle chart from Stockcharts, tech stocks often bottom and turn up in recessions or the bottom of economic cycles. We may not get an official recession that ECRI predicted, perhaps from government borrowing 40¢ of every dollar it spends to keep a large government intact and people employed, but we may have seen it in the semi sector aided by the tsunami in Japan then flooding in SE Asia.

Thanks for sharing your charts every month. I am sure I am not the only one who greatly appreciates them but doesn't say so every month.

Happy New Year!

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To: Kirk © who wrote (25068)1/8/2012 2:49:06 PM
From: Gottfried   of 25275
 
Kirk, thank you. Clicking 'recommend' on my chart posts lets me know they're appreciated and is enough.

Interesting article about Japan

"The Myth of Japan's Failure
By EAMONN FINGLETON
Published: January 6, 2012"

nytimes.com 


excerpt:
• Japan's average life expectancy at birth grew by 4.2 years — to 83 years from 78.8 years — between 1989 and 2009. This means the Japanese now typically live 4.8 years longer than Americans. The progress, moreover, was achieved in spite of, rather than because of, diet. The Japanese people are eating more Western food than ever. The key driver has been better health care.

• Japan has made remarkable strides in Internet infrastructure. Although as late as the mid-1990s it was ridiculed as lagging, it has now turned the tables. In a recent survey by Akamai Technologies, of the 50 cities in the world with the fastest Internet service, 38 were in Japan, compared to only 3 in the United States.

• Measured from the end of 1989, the yen has risen 87 percent against the U.S. dollar and 94 percent against the British pound. It has even risen against that traditional icon of monetary rectitude, the Swiss franc.

• The unemployment rate is 4.2 percent, about half of that in the United States.[snip]

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To: Gottfried who wrote (25067)1/9/2012 9:16:57 PM
From: etchmeister1 Recommendation   of 25275
 
UMC monthly sales for December came in a lot better than expected:
see comment
blogs.barrons.com 

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