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 Technology Stocks | Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)


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To: FUBHO who wrote (24857)1/18/2011 5:27:41 PM
From: Gottfried
   of 25364
 
good timing >Despite a sudden rise in capital spending, the IC equipment industry possibly faces another dreaded downturn in 2011.

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To: Gottfried who wrote (24858)1/18/2011 6:09:34 PM
From: robert b furman
   of 25364
 
Hi G,

Don't believe everything you read.

Cycle peak is a myth.

Intel's Capex at 9.2 billion just goes to show there is a strong and very competitive play out there amongst the big boys.

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (24859)1/18/2011 7:12:56 PM
From: Gottfried
   of 25364
 
Bob, I kind of expected some negative analyst comments just when this group's stocks are showing some life. Hence my comment "good timing"

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To: robert b furman who wrote (24859)1/18/2011 11:48:28 PM
From: cluka
   of 25364
 
If you listen to INTC CC you will understand they are not lacking capacity. They feel the need to move to 22nm to stay ahead of competition. They are also integrating more things into CPUs which will certainly make for an interesting situation for some other semi companies.

INTC guided to modest 10% rev growth with an aggressive assumption of low to mid teen unit shipment growth.'

There is little doubt that if everyone sticks to current spending targets it will create oversupply. I think foundries will be particularly hard hit as I see INTC getting into some sort of special foundry arrangements.

This looks very much like 2000. But I also think it is a great time to be long equipment stocks. I am betting on laggards like KLAC and AMAT.

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To: cluka who wrote (24861)1/19/2011 8:57:33 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 25364
 
Hi cluka,

I need to listen to CC as I have not done that yet.

My belief is Intel has stumbled regarding smart phones and tablets.

They had to see another approach when they sold the mobile division to Marvell.

My suspicion is they will leapfrog arm's design when they make smaller chips with the graphics also incorporated with multi core designs.

The multicore designs started about the same time Marvell bought the mobile division.

It makes senseto incorporate graphics and WIFI communication all into the same chip.

Initial tests of Sandy Bridge shows great speed vs old bridging designs.

This is just the beginning as new variations will be spun out quickly.

Key will be to watch design wins for tablets that Intel makes.

When/IF intel has a better mouse trap,Jobs/Apple will make the move as they have in the past.

In between Apple has made a name for themselves as nimble innovators.

Not out of character Intel will come in later and build the more efficient mousetrap.

2011 will be when it is done,2012 will show huge revenue increases if they get it done.

Not sure but there is a chance that greater doubt on Intels capability,will occur in the near future.

In between any dip in the market that also impacts Intel,will be a wonderful acquisition time. IMO

I do think the dividend protects the share price from dropping to pre dividend levels in the low teens.

Mutual funds based on dividend yield will embrace any dip in Intels stock price.

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (24862)1/19/2011 10:23:56 AM
From: cluka
   of 25364
 
Intel will not have a chip for mobile devices until second part of 2011, that is very disappointing.

This area is also not a natural for Intel, they just don't get the concept of less is more. Intel cannot transition to the world where fewer GB of RAM make for a better design. This is similar issue to one faced by Microsoft. When Ballmer says no matter what design, Windows will be there, someone ought to tell him, no one will buy it if Windows is there.

"Initial tests of Sandy Bridge shows great speed vs old bridging designs."

Who cares? Maybe my kids? Perhaps it will be in PS4 but I don't need it, it is meaningless to me. I have no needs beyond 3-4 year old computer designs.

I do agree that INTC as an investment has small downside but by the same token, it has just as small if not smaller upside. There are ever greater number of people entering middle class. They have hunger for computing. They also have hunger for washer/dryers, it does not make Maytag a great investment.

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To: cluka who wrote (24861)1/19/2011 10:53:56 AM
From: Cary Salsberg
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RE: "There is little doubt that if everyone sticks to current spending targets it will create oversupply."

I have more doubt. Capital intensity is rising rapidly with each new node. Large capital output for equipment increases bits per wafer markedly but not so much actual wafer capacity.

22 nm without EUV will be an expensive multi pass endeavor. Multiple immersion DUV passes for each critical layer and many critical layers.

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (24864)1/19/2011 11:27:17 AM
From: cluka
   of 25364
 
Cary,

Intel itself said that for mobile processors (small die) they don't need 22 nm. The only reason for smaller geometries is to integrate more functionality on a single chip.

How many layers at 22nm? What the benefit if you can integrate 2 chips in 1? Why would that increase capital intensity even if you need to do few layers with 2x exposure/etch.

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To: cluka who wrote (24863)1/19/2011 11:59:10 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 25364
 
Hi cluka,

Intel is no doubt making them now.

Acer has plans for two tablets to be released in April:
Acer told The INQUIRER last week that it will launch two Android 3.0 Honeycomb tablets in April, one device with a 10-inch screen and the other with a 7-inch display. Acer told IDG that its 10-inch and 7-inch tablets will have Sandy Bridge architecture Intel chips. µ



Read more: theinquirer.net
The Inquirer - Computer hardware news and downloads. Visit the download store today.

Bob

Edit:

Since we are invested in SCE makers,that means they are going full tilt right now - if you are a preferred Intel supplier.

Edit # 2:

Message 27104492

smartphones driving it and no abatement of demand!!

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To: robert b furman who wrote (24866)1/19/2011 12:50:45 PM
From: cluka
   of 25364
 


The company is also keen to distance itself from the claims that it will be launching a number of Sandy Bridge tablets later this year, saying "For the moment devices based on Sandy Bridge are not foreseen yet."




[url]http://www.techradar.com/news/mobile-computing/acer-denies-plans-to-phase-out-netbooks-922624[/url]

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