If you listen to INTC CC you will understand they are not lacking capacity. They feel the need to move to 22nm to stay ahead of competition. They are also integrating more things into CPUs which will certainly make for an interesting situation for some other semi companies.
INTC guided to modest 10% rev growth with an aggressive assumption of low to mid teen unit shipment growth.'
There is little doubt that if everyone sticks to current spending targets it will create oversupply. I think foundries will be particularly hard hit as I see INTC getting into some sort of special foundry arrangements.
This looks very much like 2000. But I also think it is a great time to be long equipment stocks. I am betting on laggards like KLAC and AMAT.
Intel will not have a chip for mobile devices until second part of 2011, that is very disappointing.
This area is also not a natural for Intel, they just don't get the concept of less is more. Intel cannot transition to the world where fewer GB of RAM make for a better design. This is similar issue to one faced by Microsoft. When Ballmer says no matter what design, Windows will be there, someone ought to tell him, no one will buy it if Windows is there.
"Initial tests of Sandy Bridge shows great speed vs old bridging designs."
Who cares? Maybe my kids? Perhaps it will be in PS4 but I don't need it, it is meaningless to me. I have no needs beyond 3-4 year old computer designs.
I do agree that INTC as an investment has small downside but by the same token, it has just as small if not smaller upside. There are ever greater number of people entering middle class. They have hunger for computing. They also have hunger for washer/dryers, it does not make Maytag a great investment.
Acer has plans for two tablets to be released in April: Acer told The INQUIRER last week that it will launch two Android 3.0 Honeycomb tablets in April, one device with a 10-inch screen and the other with a 7-inch display. Acer told IDG that its 10-inch and 7-inch tablets will have Sandy Bridge architecture Intel chips. µ
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Since we are invested in SCE makers,that means they are going full tilt right now - if you are a preferred Intel supplier.
The company is also keen to distance itself from the claims that it will be launching a number of Sandy Bridge tablets later this year, saying "For the moment devices based on Sandy Bridge are not foreseen yet."