Technology Stocks | Nokia Corp. (NOK)


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From: zax4/16/2012 11:38:32 PM
2 Recommendations   of 8724
 
Nokia: A Compelling Buy For Smart Investors
April 16, 2012 | by: Vatalyst



seekingalpha.com 

Late last week, Jeff Kvall of Barclay's Capital cut his rating of Nokia ( NOK) from Overweight to Equal Weight and lowered his price target to $4 per share. Similarly, analysts at Zacks downgraded the stock to Underperform, stating their belief that the company will face serious margin pressure in a tough industry that is dominated by rivals Apple ( AAPL) and Google ( GOOG). They called their view of the recent alliance between Nokia and Microsoft ( MSFT) "skeptical" as to the potential for success. The downgrades seem like simply the latest in a series of negatives for a company that has been hit by a shift away from its core business in cheap phones by consumers, a significant software glitch on the tails of its most recent release in the smartphone space, and a generally negative view by investors. To put the case in the simplest of terms: They are all wrong.

If one looks simply at Nokia as he or she would any other company, the analysts may be able to make a case for their positions; it is important to remember that they are paid to have an opinion of a given stock within a specific perspective. If one considers the stock through the lens of these analysts, one sees a company that has partnered with one of the world's declining behemoths, Microsoft, in an attempt to compete with arguably the two most powerful companies on the planet. Nokia is not trying to outflank Apple and Google, it is charging straight at them both on what any reasonable analyst might call a suicide mission. The addition of Microsoft and the change of focus for the company is commendable, and the new management has been referred to as " crisp" by Mr. Kvall. But this is David trying to fight two Goliaths at the same time -- not a good bet unless you are using someone else's money.

The Dead Poets Live

If we can take something away from Robin Williams' Professor Keating in the movie Dead Poet's Society, it is that perspective is everything. Sometimes one needs to stand on his or her desk and, with the strength of a barbaric yawp, proclaim that there is a better way to consider this embattled company. The view from the desk top suggests that rather than looking at it purely as a stock, with a per-share price hovering around $4, the stock is better considered as a never-expiring option and as a micro-customizable fixed-income instrument. These seem like a good starting point because while an option may expire worthless and there is no guarantee that Nokia will not change its dividend if things continue to worsen, under the current set of circumstances, the risk/reward profile looks very attractive.

Let's Talk Turkey

As an income play, Nokia is currently trading with a dividend yield of 4.4%. Ericsson ( ERIC) pays a dividend yield of 2.6%, while neither Motorola Mobility Holdings ( MMI) nor Research In Motion ( RIMM) pay a dividend at all. On the income side of things, neither Apple nor Google pay a dividend either. At a time when U.S. treasuries are barely paying 2% and finding any yield at all is extremely difficult, the income available from Nokia looks very appealing. What this means is that if the stock is only able to maintain its price for the period during which an investor holds it, he or she will get a return that is more than double that available in government securities. There is no doubt that Nokia is a far riskier bet that the U.S. government, despite the best efforts of the Treasury and Federal Reserve to the contrary. But given the importance of Nokia within its local economy, it seems unlikely that the company will disappear anytime soon. If anything, at these levels, the company makes an interesting takeover candidate (more on that below).

Consider It An Option

Anytime a stock dips consistently below the $5 per-share level, there is a tendency for investors to consider the stock less attractive. While this certainly should apply to a small-capitalization stock that may be struggling for its very existence, Nokia is a $14.9 billion market capitalization company. Rather than considering the stock purely as an equity investment, if one considers the roughly $4 per share price as an option premium for an option that will never expire, the play looks more interesting. On a valuation basis, the stock is not particularly attractive. It does not have a price-to-earnings ratio because it had negative earnings, where Ericsson has a P/E of 16.8, Research In Motion has a P/E of 5.8, Apple has a P/E of 17.2, and Google has a P/E of 21. The company is no more attractive on an operating margin basis either. It has an operating margin of 1.8% relative to 10.9% for Ericsson, 10.7% for Research In Motion, 33.9% for Apple, and 32.3% for Google.

Still, the question remains: If Nokia is so marginal as an equity investment, does it really make sense to commit capital? If the company is marginal as an equity, it is somewhat expensive as an option. While being advocated as an option in one sense, the investment is an equity position, which means that one will receive the income discussed above. Furthermore, at these depressed prices, the company may be an attractive takeover candidate. While it might be difficult to conceive of the precise strategic advantage that purchasing the company may represent, it is its weakened position that creates the interest. Overall, there are enough positives about Nokia that it should be considered, even if only in small quantities, as a part of any comprehensive portfolio -- despite the negative view of the analysts.

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To: Eric L who wrote (7107)4/17/2012 10:05:29 AM
From: Eric L   of 8724
 
Another reasonably comprehensive and mostly positive Lumia 900 Review (Daily Tech) ...

The review excerpted below is a follow-up to an earlier Lumia 900 review by the same author which was linked here yesterday by 'Lahcim Leinad' and which criticized elements of the Windows Phone browser experience. That 6 day old review statrted out with these comments:

"First let me start by saying that I love my new phone -- it has thus far been a much superior experience to Gingerbread. I will post my in-depth review shortly, but first I would like to highlight that Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), and co. have some potential issues to address. ... Compared to mobile Safari and mobile Chrome, I would describe the mobile version of Internet Explorer as fast and usable, but difficult. Admittedly, part of the problem is the learning curve."

The new review is comprehensive enough and balanced enough to warrant a full read.

>> Review: Nokia's Lumia 900 LTE Advances the Smartphone Experience

Jason Mick
Daily Tech
April 17, 2012

dailytech.com 

... I've now had a week with my new Lumia 900 LTE from Nokia Oyj. (HEL:NOK1V) and impressions have started to form. ... I think the Lumia 900 is quite possibly the best smartphone I've encountered in terms of the average user experience. That's not to say there aren't some glaring annoyances here or weaknesses -- because there are. But simply looking at the overall experience, I would say this Windows Phone is simpler to use, more fluid, and more fun than the iPhone 4S or front of the pack Androids like the Galaxy Nexus LTE. ... <Big Snip> ... I think the Lumia 900 is quite possibly the best smartphone I've encountered in terms of the average user experience. That's not to say there aren't some glaring annoyances here or weaknesses -- because there are. But simply looking at the overall experience, I would say this Windows Phone is simpler to use, more fluid, and more fun than the iPhone 4S or front of the pack Androids like the Galaxy Nexus LTE. For now the handful of disadvantages leave the new Windows Phone experience a work in progress, but still arguably an industry leader, when paired with a premium handset like the Lumia 900 LTE. That may sound like an ad, but I have to live my device every day, just like you have to live with yours. Having just spent a week with Windows Phone 7 on a proper piece of hardware, I find it hard to imagine going back to Gingerbread, or even Ice Cream Sandwich. ###

- Eric -

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From: Eric L4/17/2012 10:57:58 AM
   of 8724
 
Noise Travels Fast: Nokia Media Headline(s) of the Day ...

"Nokia And Microsoft Were Totally Slammed By Their Most Important Partners" ... "Nokia's Lumia 'Not Good Enough' Say Carriers" ... "Operators: Nokia would sell better with Android" ... "Nokia can't compete with Apple, Android, say European carriers" ... "European carriers feel that Nokia Lumia devices aren't good enough to take on" ... "European carriers take shots at Nokia's Lumia line without leaving cover" ... "Is the Lumia doomed to fail?" ... etc., etc., etc., etc. ...

The single source of that Noisy News ricocheting around the Internet faster than a speeding bullet is the single article published early this morning in London and clipped below which cites 5 unnamed representatives of European network operators (who are generally not referred to as 'carriers' in Europe). The anonymous representatives include: "an executive in charge of mobile devices at a European operator"; "a spokesman for a second telecoms carrier"; "a spokesman for a third operator who did not want to be named"; "a France Telecom sales clerk"; and "One device chief at a European operator."

>> Mobile operators unconvinced by Nokia's revival bid

Leila Abboud and Georgina Prodhan
Reuters (London)
April 17, 2012 7:39am BST

uk.reuters.com 

Nokia's (NOK1V.HE) bid to challenge the dominance of Apple's iPhone and Google's Android has failed to convince telecom operators in Europe, depriving it of powerful allies in its fight to regain the top spot in the mobile market.

Four major telecom operators in Europe, where the phones have been on sale since before Christmas, told Reuters the new Nokia Lumia smartphones were not good enough to compete with Apple's iPhone or Samsung's Galaxy phones.

Nokia now faces a battle for the key U.S. market, where its former dominance has shrivelled to 1 percent of the smartphone market. AT&T (T.N) has been selling the Lumia 900 for two weeks and it says early demand has been strong.

Sceptics among operators say the sleek, neon-coloured phones are overpriced for what is not an innovative product, cite a lack of marketing dollars put behind the phones, and image problems caused by glitches in the battery and software of the early models.

Nokia's big bet made a year ago to put Microsoft's Windows Phone software in its smartphones looks far from certain to pay off, operators said.

"No one comes into the store and asks for a Windows phone," said an executive in charge of mobile devices at a European operator, which has sold the Lumia 800 and 710 since December.

Nokia is trying to catch up after earlier smartphones were unsuccessful and hurt its image at the higher end of the market.

"Nokia have given themselves a double challenge: to restore their credibility in terms of making hardware smartphones and succeed with the Microsoft Windows operating system, which lags in the market," the executive said.

He said Microsoft's software worked nicely with PCs and allowed you "to do tonnes of cool things" but few customers knew this. "If the Lumia with the same hardware came with Android in it and not Windows, it would be much easier to sell," he said.

Moody's cut its credit rating on Nokia to one notch above junk on Monday after the company said it would post losses for the first and second quarters. Standard & Poor's announced a similar downgrade in March.

Nokia's shares fell below 3 euros, a 15-year low.

Alternative Required

Telecom operators subsidise the majority of mobiles in the United States and Europe before putting them in the hands of consumers, so they have an outsized influence on the market.

Operators want a viable alternative to Apple and Android, not only to offer customers more choice but to give them a stronger bargaining position with phone manufacturers.

U.S. operators buy about 90 percent of mobiles while their European peers buy 50-70 percent, according to market researcher Gartner and Bernstein Research. Operators then sell them at a discount and recoup the money through 1-2 year contracts.

"It's good for operators if we can reduce the dominance of Apple," said a spokesman for a second telecoms carrier, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of relations with mobile phone makers.

Nokia is trying to capitalise on its closer ties with the operators and to exploit their irritation with Apple's dominance and Google's bandwidth-hungry services like YouTube in the hope they will push their phones on the market.

However, at a France Telecom store in Paris, Lumia models were not prominently displayed and a sales clerk was quick to offer one shopper an iPhone first. She then presented a range of Android smartphones made by Samsung and HTC (2498.TW).

Mixed Reviews

Reviews of the Lumia on tech blogs have been mixed with some liking the smart look and Windows-inspired design, and others pointing out the poor quality of the screen and battery life. Few reviewers have suggested users should dump their iPhone or Android to buy a new Nokia.

Getting customers to switch phones is even trickier in the "app economy" as users buy games, publications and videos on their phones and do not want to lose them by switching system.

Issuing a profit warning last week, Nokia fell short of analysts' estimates by saying it had sold over 2 million Lumia smartphones in the quarter ending March, up from 1 million in November to January. Analysts had expected sales of 3 million.

Apple sold 37 million iPhones in the last quarter of 2011 while South Korea's Samsung has sold more than 40 million Galaxy smartphones since the range went on sale in June 2010. It will unveil the third-generation Galaxy S on May 3 in London, banking on grabbing attention before the Olympic games.

Apple Dominance

Apple uses its dominant position to dictate to operators the minimum number of iPhones they must buy and the size of subsidies they must offer to reduce prices for consumers.

The carriers then have to recover the cost by signing up customers to multi-year contracts.

That has hit the profits of European and U.S. operators just as they struggle with more competition from Web-based free messaging services and face costs for network upgrades to keep up with data traffic generated by smartphones.

AT&T and Sprint (S.N) posted hefty losses last quarter that they blamed at least partly on heavy iPhone subsidies.

Apple iPhones tend to cost operators roughly 600 to 700 euros ($800 to $900), while high-end Samsung smartphones can cost 300-500 euros.

AT&T sells the new Lumia 900, a fourth-generation phone capable of ultra-high connection speeds, for $99.99 with a two-year contract and is marketing it heavily. Rival operator T-Mobile says the Lumia 710 is among its most popular phones.

"We don't put this weight behind every launch," said an AT&T spokesman, adding the Lumia 900 had sold out in many stores.

At a shop in New York, a sales associate pointed out the Lumia to a Reuters reporter, saying it was AT&T's newest phone and many people had been asking for it.

Loss Leader

In Europe, although most operators are offering the new Nokia Lumia brand Windows phones, few use the weapons they have to push them: deeper subsidies or bigger marketing budgets.

Some complain they are too expensive, despite Nokia selling the range to operators and distributors for an average 220 euros last quarter, well below what had been expected.

"This implies that sales to the consumer are proving to be more difficult than we would have expected," said Richard Windsor, global technology specialist at investment bank Nomura, who had expected an average selling price of 300 euros.

A spokesman for a third operator who did not want to be named said: "If they could lower the price we think they could sell more. It might be worth making it a bit of a loss leader to get it out of the door. It's not rocket science."

Operators are also frustrated that cash-rich Microsoft is not spending more on marketing Nokia Windows phones.

"The operators say to Nokia: 'We will try to bail you out if you and Microsoft come with the marketing money,'" says telecom consultant John Strand. "But even if the operators start to give away the Nokias for free, it will not make Nokia a success," said Strand, who works with many of the top European carriers.

One device chief at a European operator agreed. "We can open our stores to them and train our staff to sell the phones, but that's it," he said.

"Ultimately, Nokia and Windows are challengers and they either need to come to market with a really disruptive, innovative product or a huge marketing budget to create client demand. So far they have done neither." ###

- Eric -

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From: Eric L4/17/2012 11:24:32 AM
   of 8724
 
Results of a WinPhone Purchaser Poll Conducted by WPCentral ...

... albeit with only 3,462 respondents to date who purportedly purchased a Lumia 900 mor Titan II Winphone from AT&T:




wpcentral.com 

- Eric -

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From: Eric L4/17/2012 1:15:37 PM
2 Recommendations   of 8724
 
A Recommended Bookmark for Windows Phone on SI ...

Subject 58527

Thanks to WWW and Zax for correcting that link where I incorrectly and obtusely entered it on another board.

The SI moderated 'Windows Phone' board linked above was started by 'zax' in early January of this year. I only became aware of it recently and intend to participate and contribute posts that are Windows Phone specific rather than Nokia WinPhone specific there while continuing to post Nokia specific WinPhone posts to the moderated Nokia board and other WinPhone posts to the Smartphone board I host. I'll attempt to minimize duplicate postings but occasionally will cross reference particularly significant WinPhone posts/links.

- Eric -

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To: Eric L who wrote (7224)4/17/2012 2:16:41 PM
From: zax   of 8724
 


Nokia Lumia 900 Coming To T-Mobile This Summer, Says Carrier Rep
By: Anton D. Nagy |7:44 AM 17-Apr-12

pocketnow.com 


We've heard how Nokia is allegedly preparing an exclusive phone for every U.S. carrier and we're positive you remember the post about a certain "improved" Lumia 900 purportedly coming to other carriers -- as AT&T's exclusivity on the phone is, according to rumors, lasting only 45 days.

Following up on all the above reports and rumors, an in-store T-Mobile rep allegedly said the "Lumia 900 will be coming to T-Mobile this summer". We could be looking at some real inside information here or just an overzealous sales rep. However, if Nokia wants to really try regaining some of the lost market share of yesteryear, they need Windows Phones on all carriers (yes, Verizon and Sprint too).

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From: zax4/17/2012 9:15:45 PM
   of 8724
 
In other words, you can buy your Lumia 900 today, upgrade to WP8 later.

Windows Phone 8 coming to all current phones, says evangelist

By Kip Kniskern on April 17, 2012 3:39 PM

liveside.net 

In a video interview with Portuguese Windows Phone Evangelist Nuno Silva published by Portuguese site Zwame.pt last month, and noticed by WMPowerUser, comes news that all current Windows Phones will be able to be upgraded to Windows Phone 8 (Apollo). WMPowerUser posted a short video excerpt of the hour long interview (in Portuguese), overlaying the English translation:



Here’s the translated quote from the clip:

Q: In terms of devices, who today have one is it expectable that…

A: What Microsoft said/stated and what I’m allowed to tell you is that all actual devices will get upgrade to the next major version of Windows Phone (we´re talking about Apollo)

Q: When you say actual devices. Are all that came out to market?

A: Are all that came out. Since the first generation that were bought. The LGs and SAMSUNGs.. OMNIA 7 which were the first devices with Windows Phone reaching the market.


What’s interesting is that the evangelist is quoted as saying that Microsoft has already said that “all actual devices” will get Apollo, which of course is news to us. If it’s true, it’s beyond us why Microsoft *wouldn’t* make that announcement, as consumers might be more willing to buy a Windows Phone now if they knew it was certain to get an Apollo upgrade.

Still, and we’d be happy to hear from any Portuguese speakers who can verify the correctness of the translation, it’s good news for current Windows Phone users.

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To: zax who wrote (7226)4/17/2012 10:50:47 PM
From: Eric L   of 8724
 
WinPhone Forward/Backward Compatability

<< In other words, you can buy your Lumia 900 today, upgrade to WP8 later. ... Windows Phone 8 coming to all current phones, says evangelist. >>

Yes, and as Larry Lieberman stated on the Windows Phone Developer Blog 9 days ago all existing WinPhone 7 games and apps will run on WinPhone 8 or whatever they call the next version of WinPhone. Microsoft has been kind of dribbling out info bcause they are not quite ready to talk about all their future plans ...

"Lots of people are digging into the new development platform opportunities provided by Windows 8, and we understand there are a lot of questions about what they may portend for Windows Phone developers. While we aren’t yet ready to talk about our future plans, we do believe there are certain things we can tell you. In fact, we’ve already talked quite a bit about this at the //BUILD conference last September (see our sessions recorded online at wpdev.ms  ). With regard to existing applications: today’s Windows Phone applications and games will run on the next major version of Windows Phone. Driving application compatibility is a function of Microsoft’s commitment to its developers. Regardless of what we release in terms of new developer features and functionality, we have made a large investment in protecting your existing investments".
[The bold in this preceding quoted paragraph is Microsoft's not mine]

- Eric -

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From: Eric L4/17/2012 11:07:04 PM
   of 8724
 
AT&T Lumia 900s Back in Stock

>> Lumia 900 Back in Stock with AT&T

Chris Ziegler
The Verge
April 17, 2012 02:19 pm

AT&T now has the Lumia 900 back in stock on its website, a relatively quick replenishment after the virtual shelves ran dry several days ago (interested parties were still able to find the phone at Amazon and some brick-and-mortar locations, though). What remains unclear is why the phone went out of stock in the first place — sheer popularity is one thing, but it's plausible that AT&T pulled the phone for a few days to make sure that customers were being sold updated models that didn't have data connectivity issues out of the box. Either way, with Nokia offering buyers a $100 bill credit until the 21st if they take the plunge, it's sure to remain a particularly popular model for the next few days. ###

- Eric -

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To: zax who wrote (7226)4/18/2012 7:54:51 AM
From: Eric L   of 8724
 
WinPhone Forward/Backward Compatibility ???

<< Windows Phone 8 coming to all current phones, says evangelist >>

There is a formal Microsoft statement that WP7 apps will run on WP8 but no official statement from Microsoft that all WP7 devices will be upgradeable to WP8. There are unofficial statements from 'insiders' saying that is not necessarily the case and that the evangelist from Portugal misspoke.. Best we not take his statement to the bank as of yet.

- Eric -

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