Technology Stocks | Nokia Corp. (NOK)


Previous 10 | Next 10 
To: Eric L who wrote (6202)7/24/2009 11:39:19 AM
From: Eric L   of 8735
 
The Koreans Check In: Samsung & LGE Results (Handsets)

• Samsung Slides here (Corrected URL):

tiny.cc 

• LG Slides here:

lge.com 

Both companies had very good quarters. Forex is very much in play. They have both been riding a tailwind because of the relatively weak Won. Both's guidance and the analysis of the Asian analysts that follow them, comment on the possibility of a strengthening of the Won against the Euro and USD which could alter their competetive advantage and change teir fortune somewhat.

Using Nokia's estimate of global sell-in temporarily and until Motorola reports, sales and share look like this ...

                   Q2'09
Units Share
======= =======
Nokia 103.2m 38.5%
Samsung 52.3m 19.5%
LG 29.8m 11.1%
Sony Ericsson 13.8m 5.1%
Other 68.9m 25.7%
====== ======
268.0m 100.0%

I. Samsung Handsets

• Handset Shipments: 52.3 million units (QoQ +14%, YoY +14%)

• ASP: $124 : €88 (QoQ +2%+)

• Sales increase in both developed and emerging markets due to enhanced product lineup

· Europe/US: Strong sales of touch-phones and messaging-phones

· Emerging markets : Steady sales increase of strategic models

--> Slim design and differentiated functions (color screen, camera)

• Continued to outperform market growth

• Maintained double-digit OP margin, due to strong mid/high-end sales and cost saving despite increased marketing expenses.

--> Op margin was 10%, down from 11% in Q1

Samsung's Business Outlook (Industry):

• Q3 Industry Demand: QoQ +5% range increase

--> Developed market: Strong seasonal demand & Carrier promotion
--> Emerging market: Seasonal demand and expand 3G service in China

• Expect continued demand increase in smart-phone and touch-phone

• Expect 2009 handsets sales down ~10% YoY from ~1.2 billion to 1.1 billion units but see H1 at 47% v. H2 at 50% while split was 50%/50% in 2008

Samsung's Own Business Outlook:

• Handsets : Expect steady Margin/Sales (M/S) growth through strengthened product line-up

--> ’09 shipment target : 200 million plus units

--> Expansion of current strategic products in the global market & Launching of 2H flagship models (Jet, Galaxy, Star, Omnia II).

--> Growth expected in developed market (US, Europe) and emerging market where 3G service is expanding.

<II. LG Handsets:

• Shipments hit 29.8M units, up 32% QoQ. (8% growth YoY)

• Operating Margin up to 10.6% in Q2 from 3.9% in Q4'08 and 10.6% in Q1'09

• Launched new models: Arena, enVTouch/ enV3 to N. America, etc.

• Continued growth in emerging markets (China, MEA, CIS, etc)

• 30% M/S in Korea from upsurge in sales of Cookie, Lollipop, etc

• Profitability: Improvement was led by product mix centered on new model launches and solid growth from existing mid to high-tier models. Also, cost cutting activities improved profitability.

LGE's Business Outlook (Industry):

• Market: 7% growth QoQ or 280M units expected due to seasonality. (down 6% YoY)

LGE's Own Business Outlook:

• Steady growth and slight decline in profitability is anticipated QoQ due to marketing investment and expansion of low-tier models to emerging markets.

• New models: 4th Black Label Series, GD900 Crystal (transparent keypad), GM730 (smartphone)

• Double digit sales growth expected in India, China, CS America and CIS

• Strengthen competitiveness through efficient resource allocation and cost cutting activities ###

- Eric -

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: Eric L who wrote (6204)7/24/2009 1:47:11 PM
From: Eric L   of 8735
 
Nokia and the Koreans Lifting Boats: (Share Numbers, Smartphones, and the Weak Won)

For lack of another number it looks like ABI Research is using the same denominator that I am in calculating OEMs Share: i.e. Nokia's estimated 269 million units global sales.

>> Nokia, LG, Samsung Help Boost Handset Industry, Report Says

Michelle Maisto
2009-07-24

tinyurl.com 

ABI Research reports that 269 million handsets shipped in the second quarter of 2009, which “bodes well” for the second half the year. Nokia, LG and Samsung all showed market share growth, while Sony-Ericsson, Motorola and RIM saw contractions. ... <snip> ...

... The figure bodes well for the second half of 2009, according to Jake Saunders, ABI Research’s vice president of forecasting. “Shipments should build sequentially in a constructive manner with [the fourth quarter of 2009] potentially returning the industry to better sales form,” said Saunders in a statement.

Nokia exceeded expectations for the quarter, reporting smartphone sales of 16.9 million units for the second quarter, compared to 13.7 million units in the first quarter of 2009. Its market share rose to 38.3 percent, which ABI describes in the statement as a “remarkable swing in fortunes.” Samsung, which boosted its market share by 1.45 percent to a total of 19.4 percent, and LG, which grew 2.2 percentage points to 11.1 percent, both carried out refreshes of their smartphone lines and performed “particularly well,” according to ABI.

[Edit: LG really didn't have much of any smartphone presence to refresh. They have been into rouch screen feature phones -IC -]

“It is well documented that smartphones are proving to be one of the main engines of growth, but they are not just benefiting the Tier 1 players,” said Kevin Burden, ABI practice director, in the statement. “A number of Tier 3 vendors are also making headway in a competitive market, including Apple and HTC but also vendors such as Huawei and ZTE. While a consolidation is widely expected in the industry, it will not be happening in 2009.”

Pressures to consolidate, said ABI, are coming from a tighter integration between hardware, operating system and applications development. The average selling price for smartphones is higher than the overall average, and research and development price tags, explained ABI, “can only go up.”

ABI reported that it is revising its forecast 2009 contraction from negative 8.1 percent, or 1.11 billion, to negative 7.5 percent. ###

The Weak Won ...

Moon Ihlwan, Seoul bureau chief at BusinessWeek commented on the Weak Won Tailwind ..

Help from a Weak Won: The high-end focus and aggressive marketing paid off, enabling Samsung to increase the amount of profit it makes per TV. ... <snip> ... Samsung is aided by the weak Korean won, which has lost about a quarter of its value against the dollar in the past 18 months. By contrast, Japanese rivals' competitiveness is suffering due to the strength of the yen.

While SA may not have numbers out yet Moon added ...

tinyurl.com 

Samsung's mobile-phone business, which generated $800 million in earnings, is another bright spot. The world's second-largest handset vendor after Nokia (NOK), Samsung sold 52.3 million phones in the second quarter, an increase of 14% from the previous quarter. That was enough to give Samsung a global market share in mobile phones of 20%, compared with 16.7% in 2008 and 11.3% in 2006, according to market researcher Strategy Analytics. Remarkably, Samsung executives are confident the company will keep snatching market share, with troubled rivals such as Motorola (MOT) and Sony Ericsson the likely losers. Kim Hyong Do, vice-president at Samsung's telecom unit, expects his company to achieve its target of selling more than 200 million handsets this year, even though for the overall industry Strategy Analytics forecasts a 10% drop from last year's 1.2 billion phones. "With the scheduled launch of [new] flagship models such as Jet, Galaxy, and Omnia II in the second half of this year, we expect a steady market share growth," says Kim.

- Eric -

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

From: Eric L7/24/2009 2:08:40 PM
   of 8735
 
Ericsson, ST-Ericsson (Chips), and Sony Ericssson (Handsets)

Ericsson certainly didn't help mobile wireless sector sentiment with their reporting.
About what I expected, however. Infra is tough right now, and the Sony Ericsson results reported last week were awful (their report directly below) ...

ericsson.com 

>> Sony Ericsson Posts Fourth Consecutive Quarterly Loss

Company specializes in mid-range mobile handsets such as its Walkman Cybershot line of feature phones.

By Marin Perez
InformationWeek
July 16, 2009 11:50 AM

tinyurl.com 

Sony (NYSE: SNE) Ericsson continues to struggle, and its decreased shipments and sales led to a loss of about $300 million for the second quarter.

The company specializes in mid-range devices such as its Walkman or Cybershot line of feature phones, and this segment has been especially hard hit by the mobile industry's decline. The company shipped 13.8 million units for the period, which was down 43% from the same quarter last year.

The cell phone maker did improve its operating margins in part due to a massive restructuring effort that is predicted to save about $522 million in costs. Like Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Sony Ericsson sees the mobile market declining by about 10% in 2009 due to the global economic recession.

"As expected, the second quarter was challenging and we still believe the remainder of the year will be difficult for Sony Ericsson," said the company's president Dick Komiyama in a statement. "Our focus remains on bringing the company back to profitability and growth as quickly as possible, and our performance is starting to improve due to our cost reduction activities."

During its conference call Thursday, the company said it would likely need a capital injection in the second half of the year. Sony Ericsson said financing should not be an issue, and this could come from its parent companies Sony and Ericsson, or from outside sources.

The company introduced three high-end phones during the quarter, but these devices aren't scheduled to be released until the fourth quarter. The Satio, Yari, and Aino do represent the direction the company is taking its handsets, as each phone has strong multimedia capabilities and one even has deep integration with Sony's PlayStation 3. ###

ST-Ericsson results here ...

ericsson.com 

Ericsson Results here ...

ericsson.com 

>> Ericsson Reports 61% Decline in Profit

Kevin J. O’Brien (Berlin)
The Wall Street Journal
July 24, 2009

tinyurl.com 

Ericsson, the largest maker of wireless network gear, posted a 61 percent decline in second-quarter profit on Friday, but the company’s incoming chief executive said he saw hope for growth in the rise of the mobile Internet.

“I definitely see mobile broadband overtaking fixed broadband in a few years,” said Hans Vestberg, the chief financial officer who will take over the company at start of next year.

Mr. Vestberg said he expected demand for mobile broadband to support Ericsson during the current downturn.

“It’s not clear what the applications will be at this point, but it is clear that there is huge appetite for it at the moment.” he said.

Mr. Vestberg, who will succeed Carl-Henric Svanberg, who is leaving to become chairman of BP, spoke after Ericsson said profit had declined to 797 million Swedish kronor, or $107 million, from 2 billion kronor a year earlier.

The profit decline, generated by losses at its Sony Ericsson cellphone and ST-Ericsson chip units, masked continued growth at Ericsson’s main business of selling wireless network equipment, where sales rose 4 percent, to 34.7 billion kronor from 33.3 billion in the period a year ago.

Sales of equipment for new wireless networks, versus upgrades and replacements, surged 24 percent, to 5.9 billion kronor from 4.8 billion.

Over all, Ericsson’s sales rose 7 percent to 52.1 billion kronor from 48.5 billion.

Mr. Vestberg, an 18-year Ericsson employee, said the rapid deployment of mobile broadband networks would lead to a boom in mobile Internet users that would exceed traditional fixed-line subscribers. So far, many consumers are using mobile broadband as an accessory to, but not a replacement for, their fixed-line service.

The number of people paying for mobile broadband service around the world rose 84 percent during 2008 to 186 million, according to Informa Telecoms and Media, an industry researcher. The number of fixed-line broadband connections reached 408 million in June, Mr. Vestberg said.

The number of mobile phone users whose networks can deliver mobile broadband speeds rose 12 percent, to 377 million.

“There aren’t enough fixed cables in the world to accommodate all of the growth and demand for broadband,” Mr. Vestberg said. “I have no doubt mobile broadband will eventually become the predominant technology. We can’t anticipate all the changes this will bring.”

Carolina Milanesi, an analyst at Gartner in London, said mobile broadband’s gains have been strongest in emerging markets, where fixed-line networks are rudimentary and too costly to expand. In more developed markets, many operators are subsidizing sales of lightweight laptop computers in return for service contracts.

“With mobile broadband, it is only a matter of time,” Ms. Milanesi said.

Sony Ericsson and ST-Ericsson, a venture with ST Microelectronics of France and the Dutch chip maker NXP, lost 2.1 billion kronor in the three months through June, which accounted for most of Ericsson’s decline in profit.

Sales at Sony Ericsson plunged 40 percent in the quarter to 1.7 billion kronor from 2.8 billion kronor a year earlier amid falling demand in emerging markets like Latin America, the company said. Sales at ST-Ericsson, a venture based in Geneva that began operating in February, reached 666 million kronor in the quarter.

Mr. Vestberg said Ericsson was committed to both ventures and was not interested in selling its 50 percent stake in Sony Ericsson, sentiments that were echoed this month by the Sony chief executive, Sir Howard Stringer.

“They are facing tough times with the overall market but we continue to support them 100 percent,” Mr. Vestberg said. He said ST-Ericsson was still in its early stages but would emerge as a major supplier of the mobile platforms to phone makers.

Mr. Vestberg said Ericsson may soon derive most of its sales from managing the telephone networks of mobile operators rather than the sale of network equipment. In the second quarter, Ericsson’s sales of professional services, lifted by a seven-year agreement with Sprint that Ericsson worth at least $4.5 billion, accounted for 38 percent of its total sales.

“We have no specific plan to make services the biggest business, but I wouldn’t rule it out,” he said.

###

- Eric -

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: Eric L who wrote (6206)7/24/2009 4:41:28 PM
From: 49thMIMOMander1 Recommendation   of 8735
 
Two classics although unmentionable of this summer.

The Consumer Wireless Experience
commerce.senate.gov 



the stream
commerce.senate.gov 
same
tinyurl.com 

Some empty minutes, then "white wireless broadband spots".
The second half the more sexy "exclusivity" gone from 30-90 days to 5 year, protective balkanization and isolationism, the old Carter phone syndrome and dilemma,etc.etc.

The most interesting obviously all the things which are not said, plus the (domestic) witnesses that did not appear (Apple, Verizon, etc and why not also Qualcomm/Korean manfctrs)
The ATT guy, slightly nervous, does a good job of not directly mentioning nor descrbing the invisible elephants in the room.
Note, the video exclusively in non-Apple flash!
----

More sexy for the general everyday consumer

c-spanarchives.org 


Cell Phone Text Messaging Rates

Product ID: 287050-1
Format: Senate Committee
Antitrust, Competition Policy & Consumer Rights
Last Airing: 07/07/2009
Event Date: 06/16/2009
Length: 1 hour, 23 minutes
Location: Washington, DC, United States

Witnesses testified about the rising costs of text messaging charged by wireless telephone companies, the state of competition in the cellular telephone market, the impact of consolidation of prices and service, and federal regulations

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read

From: hedgefund7/25/2009 6:40:39 AM
   of 8735
 
Ericsson Gets Nortel Wireless Units





news.yahoo.com 


Ericsson buys Nortel wireless units for $1 billion
Buzz up!0 votes Send

By LOUISE NORDSTROM, Associated Press Writer Louise Nordstrom, Associated Press Writer – 8 mins ago
STOCKHOLM – Swedish wireless equipment maker LM Ericsson on Saturday said it had penned a deal to buy a majority of Nortel Networks' North American wireless business for $1.13 billion.

The Stockholm-based group said the purchase is on a cash and debt-free basis and covers the older CDMA and newer LTE wireless businesses of Nortel's Carrier Networks unit.

Nortel on Friday placed its wireless business up for auction behind closed doors in New York City, and international tech industry titans submitted their best offers for the prized division.

The deal is subject to approval by relevant authorities.

Ericsson CEO Carl-Henric Svanberg said in a statement that the acquisition would add 2,500 employees to his company, of which about 400 are focused on LTE research and development.

"Acquiring Nortel's North American CDMA business allows us to serve this important region better as we build relationships for the future migration to LTE," he said.

Under the deal, Ericsson will get CDMA contracts with North American operators such as Verizon, Sprint, U.S. Cellular, Bell Canada and Leap, as well as LTE assets, and certain patents and patent licenses relating to CDMA and LTE.

According to Ericsson, Nortel's North American CDMA operations generated $2 billion last year.

"Going forward, research and development costs are expected to be relatively low in CDMA compared with other technologies," Ericsson said.

CDMA, or code division multiple access, is a rival standard to the dominant cellular standard GSM, or global system for mobile, while LTE, or long-term evolution, is a next-generation wireless network technology that promises to be much faster.

In 2008, Ericsson's North American business generated around $2.7 billion of sales.

The group said that including its recent services agreement with Sprint, Saturday's deal will make North America its largest region, with around 14,000 staff.

Ericsson expects the acquisition to have a positive effect on its earnings within a year after closing, it said.

Magnus Mandersson, currently head of Ericsson Northern Europe, has been named President of Ericsson CDMA operations, and Richard Lowe of Nortel the chief operating officer.


HF

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: hedgefund who wrote (6208)7/25/2009 9:32:58 AM
From: Eric L   of 8735
 
Nokia on Ericsson's Winning Bid for Nortel CDMA & LTE Wireless Assets

Nortel confirmed early Saturday that Swedish telecom equipment giant Ericsson successfully outbid Europe's Nokia Siemens Networks and a U.S. private equity firm for the unit. Ericsson's winning bid was $1.13 billion, nearly double what Nokia Siemens initially offered for the division.

>> Nokia Siemens Networks remains committed to long term wireless leadership and growing its business in North America

Nokia PR
July 25, 2009

nokia.com 

Following the outcome of the auction for the CDMA and Long Term Evolution (LTE) assets of Nortel, Nokia Siemens Networks remains focused on maintaining its leadership in the global wireless infrastructure industry and sustaining its recent momentum in the North American market,

"Our final offer for Nortel's assets represented a fair price, and we did not enter this process with a win-at-any-cost mindset," said Bosco Novak, Chief Markets Operations Officer, Nokia Siemens Networks. "Ours was an opportunistic bid aimed at supporting the great progress we've made in North America in the past 18 months, and we are very confident that momentum will continue to grow."

Nokia Siemens Networks has transformed its North American business under the leadership of region head Sue Spradley. The company announced on July 20, 2009 it had won a contract with the new Canadian mobile operator Globalive Wireless for the roll-out of a 3G network in Canada. This marked the fourth such agreement in just over a year following deals with Bell Canada, TELUS and Videotron in 2008.

Momentum also continues to build in the U.S. where Nokia Siemens Networks has a leading position in long-haul optical networks and is building its business with both cable and wireless operators as illustrated by recent key deals for IMS technology with Time Warner and with Verizon Wireless to support the roll-out of LTE.

Nokia Siemens Networks is well positioned to transition its leadership in 3G into long-term success in LTE throughout the network from the core IMS system it is building for Verizon Wireless to the Radio Access technology it is supplying with partner Panasonic to NTT DoCoMo in Japan. Nokia Siemens Networks has enjoyed recent wins in both Asia and Europe for LTE and is working on other prospects with customers across the globe.

"With our powerful R&D capacity, strong portfolio and Services capabilities and global scale and reach, Nokia Siemens Networks is positioned for long term success as one of the winners in a wireless industry that is rapidly consolidating around three vendors," said Mika Vehvilainen, Chief Operating Officer of Nokia Siemens Networks. "Our LTE platform is winning a growing number of customers across the world and we are well positioned to deliver the benefits of next generation wireless technology to customers in North America and elsewhere."

About Nokia

Nokia is a pioneer in mobile telecommunications and the world's leading maker of mobile devices. Today, we are connecting people in new and different ways - fusing advanced mobile technology with personalized services to enable people to stay close to what matters to them. We also provide comprehensive digital map information through NAVTEQ; and equipment, solutions and services for communications networks through Nokia Siemens Networks.

About Nokia Siemens Networks

Nokia Siemens Networks is a leading global enabler of telecommunications services. With its focus on innovation and sustainability, the company provides a complete portfolio of mobile, fixed and converged network technology, as well as professional services including consultancy and systems integration, deployment, maintenance and managed services. It is one of the largest telecommunications hardware, software and professional services companies in the world. Operating in 150 countries, its headquarters are in Espoo, Finland. nokiasiemensnetworks.com  ###

- Eric -

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: Eric L who wrote (6209)7/25/2009 2:23:07 PM
From: hedgefund   of 8735
 
Eric: I saw the Nokia press release earlier; I just thought it would have been good for Nokia and Qualcomm if the former had won the hand of Nortel. I differ from some others on the topic of Nokia/Qualcomm. I think Qualcomm wins if it sells chips for Nokia phones. And I think that Nokia could have enlarged its dealings with VZ had it won Nortel and that would also have been good for the Nokia/Qualcomm relationship. HF

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: Eric L who wrote (6205)7/25/2009 3:06:07 PM
From: sisuman3 Recommendations   of 8735
 
Nokia's shares are currently in the tank due to being viewed as high-risk - too much competition at low, medium and high product ranges, pressuring margins; drop-off in overall world cell phone market Nokia's slowness in coming out with competitive smart phone and touch phone products; and uncertainty about whether Nokia's new direction in solutions emphasis will really work. Having spent a considerable amount of time in corporate strategic planning in my past life, my response is to offer up three brief scenario options that could happen through 2009, 2010 and 2011. I've also noted some Measurement checkpoints for future consideration. Comments? Other views?

Sisuman


NOKIA SCENARIOS – 2009 through 2011

1. Too Much Competition
o 2010 EPS = $1.00 - $1.15; stock price around $15.00 - $20.00; management’s 2011 view continues uncertain
o World cell phone market grows at 3-4% annually
o Nokia’s unit sales share erodes, as does its value market share, due to low end price competition; lags in smart phone and touch phone competitive entries
o Operating margin stays in the 10-12% range
o Samsung continues to gain 3% market share on Nokia each year; LG gains 1.5 to 2% each year; RIM and Apple continue to gain smartphone shares
o Motorola re-entry adds to price competition
o Solutions business misses active users targets and/or margins are below expectations
o Symbian and UI improvements are delayed and/or buggy
o Nokia U.S. market share stays below 10%

2. Conservative Nokia Growth
o 2010 EPS = $1.25 - $1.40; stock price around $20.00 - $25.00; management’s 2011 view is relatively good but conservative
o World cell phone market grows at 5-8% annually
o Nokia maintains unit and value market shares; Samsung and LG gain unit market shares; Apple and RIM keep positions as strong smart phone competitors
o Nokia fields more competitive smart phone and touch phone products, keeping pace with competitors
o Margins pressure continues, but operating margins grow to 13-15% range
o Solutions business grows, meeting active user targets, but not margin targets
o Nokia introduces CDMA cell phones with QCOM in mid-2010; U.S. market share improves into 15% range

3. Nokia Big Turnaround
o 2010 EPS = $1.50 - $1.75; stock price goes to $27.00 - $35.00; management’s 2011 view is very positive
o World cell phone business grows rapidly, driven by a combination of more cell phone buyers and more service purchasers
o Product volumes increase though unit market share stays at about 40%; value market share rises; smart phone products extend significantly down into lower price regions and are well accepted
o Nokia smart phone and touch phone entries are market leaders, driven by new Symbian platforms and S-60 UI improvements
o Solutions business beats expectations in number of users and margins, hurting Samsung and LG value shares
o Nokia U.S. market share improves to 20% range as CDMA products and marketing through carriers improves; LG market share in North America and Latin America drops off due to Nokia and Motorola improved competition
o Overall operating margin reaches high teens

MEASUREMENT CHECKPOINTS

o Nokia World in Stuttgart in early September
o Motorola re-entry in late September or October with Android phones
o October earnings releases; Nokia Solutions progress report
o Nokia Capital Market Day – December, 2009
o January, 2010 earnings reports
o Mobile World Congress – February, 2010
o Symbian platform release times

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (2)

To: hedgefund who wrote (6210)7/26/2009 12:42:03 PM
From: Eric L   of 8735
 
The Nortel Prize ...

Hedgie,

<< Eric: I saw the Nokia press release earlier; I just thought it would have been good for Nokia and Qualcomm if the former had won the hand of Nortel. I differ from some others on the topic of Nokia/Qualcomm. I think Qualcomm wins if it sells chips for Nokia phones. And I think that Nokia could have enlarged its dealings with VZ had it won Nortel and that would also have been good for the Nokia/Qualcomm relationship. HF >>

As a Nokia investor, I'm mildly disappointed that NSN was not able to secure the Nortel carrier division and R&D assets it initially submitted a stalking horse bid on.

There may be a silver lining in that the regulatory approval process and deal closure could be lengthier and stickier than originally envisioned (see article below), and Nokia was originally counting on relatively rapid closure. Not to mention the fact that there is a sizeable difference between $1.13 Billion USD and the original NSN stalking horse bid of $650 million. While Nokia may have been willing to up that bid, they are both highly pragmatic and fiscally astute. I'm not about to 2nd guess their decision not to outbid Ericsson. If the approval process drags out I'm glad I don't have to be concerned with it.

As a Qualcomm investor I'm not really sure that the outcome bears particularly heavily on a potential strengthening of the Nokia/Qualcomm relationship, at least as it relates to ICs for Nokia mobile devices.

It is very possible that it will reinvigorate the Ericsson/Qualcomm relationship, and best we be mindful that in infra space Ericsson remains the dominant global supplier and a premier contributor to LTE/SAE technology and standards development in 3GPP and that technologies commercialization, so it is an important relationship.

<< I differ from some others on the topic of Nokia/Qualcomm. >>

Obviously, I do as well. I do not view the settlement reached one year ago as a capitulation in any way, shape, form or fashion. Nokia achieved what it wanted to achieve in entering into its new 15 year cross-licensing agreement with Qualcomm, after expiry of the original 15 year agreement and its 2001 amended terms.

<< I think Qualcomm wins if it sells chips for Nokia phones. >>

Likewise. So far as I can determine, on the medium to long term, Qualcomm really obtains a win-win resulting from their accord only if they obtain increased chip business from Nokia, and more importantly eventually increased business on other than just cdma/LTE mobile devices, and on devices destined for markets beyond North America. Any increased business from Nokia needs to (more than) offset any share loss at Samsung and LG, their 2 largest customers, as well as HTC.

At this juncture its difficult to assess what Moto's impact will have on increasing Qualcomm silicon IC share. Short term it should be somewhat positive, but short term Moto is focused on the Americas, and pulling back from ROW efforts, so any share gains they make here will likely be more at the expense of Samsung, LG, RIM, and HTC, as opposed to Nokia. Apple's a wild card of course, and one I'll massage with my Qualcomm and Apple hats on.

I personally don't yet see Nokia's overall global share of mobile devices deteriorating to any degree short, medium, or long haul (although that needs to be and will be closely watched by me), and I also believe that on the device product side of their business their 3GSM and multimode 'Beyond 3GSM' share and their smartphone share will pretty much approximate their overall global share. Whose chipsets they use in other than CDMA2000 single or multimode devices will have little if any impact on their share growth, decline, or maintenance, in my estimation.

Shifting gears back to Ericsson's winning bid and one of the factors Nokia had to consider in not attempting to outbid Ericsson ...

>> Nortel Faces Long Road Before Deal Closes

David Friend
The Canadian Press

niagarafallsreview.ca 

The winner of Nortel Networks' prized wireless division will have to embark on a long road of government, legal and bankruptcy court approvals that almost guarantee the deal is far from over.

An intense bidding war began Friday in New York at the offices of the insolvent technology giant's lawyers, as international tech industry titans submitted their best offers for the business.

However, it only marked the start of a much bigger effort to sell the wireless division, said Carmi Levy, a telecom analyst at AR Communications Inc.

"There will be no swift resolution here" he said.

"There is a lot of work left to do before all parties are satisfied that every last option was considered."

The wireless division includes older CDMA and newer LTE wireless businesses, as well as valuable patent rights. What remains to be seen is how aggressive BlackBerry maker Research In Motion decides to be in its effort to nab the assets including the key technology patents.

Aside from RIM, the process could be slowed by the court approval, Ottawa's concerns over foreign ownership, or any other bidder or stakeholder who considers the auction to be unfair.

RIM has already clashed with Nortel over the auction rules and called on Ottawa to intervene before the bidding began. None of that appeared to make any difference Friday when the wireless assets were placed on the block without any major delays.

"RIM remains on the outside looking in, and has not walked away from the process," Levy said.

Co-CEOs Jim Balsillie and Mike Lazaridis put forward an informal offer from RIM worth $1.1 billion, but they were shut out of the process because they refused to agree to certain terms set out by Nortel. ###

- Eric -

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read

To: sisuman who wrote (6211)7/28/2009 4:02:03 PM
From: Eric L   of 8735
 
Nokia: Is it a Sensible Recovery Play?

Sisu Man,

<< Nokia's shares are currently in the tank due to being viewed as high-risk - too much competition at low, medium and high product ranges, pressuring margins; drop-off in overall world cell phone market Nokia's slowness in coming out with competitive smart phone and touch phone products; and uncertainty about whether Nokia's new direction in solutions emphasis will really work. Having spent a considerable amount of time in corporate strategic planning in my past life, my response is to offer up three brief scenario options that could happen through 2009, 2010 and 2011. I've also noted some Measurement checkpoints for future consideration. Comments? Other views? >>

That was a Good post. Modeling 3 scenarios for Nokia decline or turnaround in the upcoming 2½ calendar and 2 fiscal years is a sound approach, and you've certainly flagged some appropriate talking points that are on investors and analysts minds.

I'll make a few (perhaps too many) general comments and will most likely link back to your post with some more specific comments at a later date.

Nokia's shares are definitely tanked, and their earnings multiple is a reflection of that. As an industry bellwether its also a reflection of sector sentiment. There is a potential upside to that. Nokia and its NOK/NOK1V shares can be viewed as a potential recovery play and/or a value play. As a hard hit industry recovers, Nokia can recover with it, provided they can maintain their dominant position across price tiers in mobile devices, and in the growing smartphone segment of the industry. Margins are key, but unit share, revenue share, profit share, and value share are in play.

Past performance is certainly no guarantee of future success, but Nokia has been through industry recessions before and has emerged the better for it each time. The same holds true for their recovery from strategic miscues that manifested themselves in H1 2004 before the global recession and its industry impact sent them tumbling again in 2008.

I'll hopefully start by abstracting and posting a very good historical and projected handset and internet device model by Barclays Capital with Gartner inputs that was published by Barclays on June 12. The model stretches back to 2001 and out through 2012 and it breaks down total handset units and share (with projected growth) into smartphones and others, and adds notebooks and netbooks. Its the best such model I've seen to date and I think its relatively realistic. Until I see better, I'm adopting it.

At some point I'll probably add an overview of the Symbian migration path in progress from Symbian/S60 to the Symbian Foundation's open-source Symbian^x which starts with Symbian^2 (integrating the OS and applications middleware/UIs: S60/and features of MOAP and UIQ)) and on through Symbian Symbian^3, and Symbian^4 which all exist on SF's roadmap, and which are due at 6 month intervals after initial release.

Then we should take a look at Ovi's evolution. The pieces appear to finally be coming together rather nicely although its still a WIP. This portal with its underlying software and services solutions is absolutely key to turning on the value tap.

We also need to take realistic stock of Nokia's (4) Tier 1 traditional handset competitors, and the (3) primary up and comers challenging them in smartphone space and confining themselves to that space and its high end at the moment. Forex can't be ignored in that exercise because Samsung & LG are riding the strong weak Won tailwind -- a wind that could start blowing in another direction at any moment.

Your 1st listed checkpoint is (rightly) Nokia World on September 2 & 3. I'm not necessarily expecting it to create a lot of buzz, and I don't expect to necessarily see the launch of hero products -- although I do expect to see their newest maemo Linux MID ('Rover' ) with OMAP3 processor launched there. I do think Nokia will start to "pull back the kimono slowly" on its Symbian smartphone and maemo Linux plans, strategies, and roadmaps marking the start of a new wave of "rolling thunder" that will build through the fall and peak (temporarily) at GSMA's Mobile World Congress (February 15-18) in Barcelona and CTIA Wireless (March 23-25), in Las Vegas.

Preceding Barcelona, the key event after Cap Market Days in December will be Q4/FY2009 Earnings in late January. Traditionally Nokia out-executes its competition in (a reasonably normal) Q4 which Q4 2008 was not. The product range needs to be right. Right now it looks pretty decent to me across all price tiers. That's not to say it couldn't be better, and it would be nice to see a few new upper mid-range or lower high end smartphone product introduced between Stuttgart and Q3 end with Q4 ramps targeted.

Nokia does face a short term hurdle that it needs to clear one way or t'other, and it should be flagged. As a negotiating tool in seeking an IPR license for Nokia's 3G products, InterDigital is seeking an injunction in the ITC banning import of Nokia's 3G products into the US. The ITC will issue a preliminary determination in August and a final determination in December.

Those be my initial thoughts and comments. More to follow (sometime).

Best,

- Eric -

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)
Previous 10 | Next 10 

Copyright © 1995-2013 Knight Sac Media. All rights reserved.