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To: robert b furman who wrote (2749)3/12/2003 11:43:23 AM
From: Chip McVickar
   of 12305
 
Bob,

Here's a weekly chart on the VLE Value Line Index....
It's an unweighted index and reflects the general market and many believe also reflects the mutual fund industry and their broad holdings.

Many other index charts look similar to this as well....!
stockcharts.com[h,a]wahannay[df][pf][ilb14!ld21][j10879024,y]&listNum=8

Notice the Red Fork and it's fib and Gann structures.... along with the lower tine of the blue larger blue fork. Before the price can sustain any break higher the market should reach the lower blue tine and be pushed any..., and then the upper red forks tine needs to be broken with conviction.

The CCI and RSI are suggesting the price is oversold and closing on a bottom.

The question remains why buy stocks....?
Chip

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2761)3/12/2003 12:00:26 PM
From: ajax99
   of 12305
 
looks like the pound won't wait for spring

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To: ajax99 who wrote (2763)3/12/2003 12:24:21 PM
From: Chip McVickar
   of 12305
 
stockcharts.com[h,a]dahaniay[dc][pf][vc60][ild21!lg21!le13,21,8][j10877153,y]&listNum=8

Here's an updated chart and the price on BP Amoco has responded to the Gann Line.... What happens to the British pound going forward will have little to do with BP's profitability as they no doubt are hedged. But the stock price seems destined to be viewed as a risky place to be and a target of dissent.

Who knows.... JMPO
Chip

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (2745)3/12/2003 4:46:49 PM
From: Chip McVickar
   of 12305
 
Lower tine held today....!
Using the 806 low gives a spiral wall break by friday

stockcharts.com[h,a]dahannay[d7][pf][j10093515,y]&listNum=1

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2765)3/12/2003 5:01:51 PM
From: Jack of All Trades
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I wouldn't get to excited until it gets back inside the skinny blue fork... JMO

Fork out of the 2/13 low is pt'ing slightly up so I give the slight edge to the bulls, any new low and the fork pt's down.

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2765)3/12/2003 8:31:04 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™
   of 12305
 
You're right, it's time for a rally...

GZ

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To: Chip McVickar who started this subject3/12/2003 8:54:48 PM
From: ajax99
   of 12305
 
Euro getting wacked in after hours - 10850 on March

any reason?

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2762)3/13/2003 11:43:07 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 12305
 
Hi Chip,

Pardon my delayed response - am visiting Mom in Wisconsin.Dad died a year ago yesterday and wanted to be by Mom's side in a difficult time.She's doing well and very strong.

CCI and RSI show some more time needed to complete.Chief's flat diagonal sounds just about right.

Large institution in trouble may well be right too.Bonds are way high and any historical derivative wouldn't expect yields dipping below 58 lows?

I'm not dialed into how they work - But LTCM bet that historical norms would hold also and with great leverage.

Best course of action is to keep eye on Greenspan and Warren Buffet - when they're both in New York -BUY BUY BUY .


Only reason I can see why stocks should be bought is They are the only game in town.Bond yields at record lows and commodity prices are soaring.Why does bond yield ignore inflation upticks - Vast irrational market at work - m,ost likely the result of geopolitical situation.If I told you the U.S would initiate a regime change war in the Middle east 5 years ago you'd tell me I needed a padded cell.Now it is a reality and the U.N. is sand bagging what they all said should be done to perpetuete their inactive importance as Americans get tirde of the waiting game.

As all of this impatience grinds out insecurity and uncertainty a flight to safety has parked trillions into what is perhaps now the most dangerously inflated instrument out there - bonds and treasuries.Declining dollar is lo longer the safe haven it was and I bet bonds will be the next sure thing to go down the road of huge losers.

All of this uncertainty,geopolitical unrest, and Iraq attack war delays,has greatly diffused the focus on a contiuing economic recovery that slowly builds sequential improvement.

All stock market declines(off of major distribution tops) end by going sideways first for a long time.This bear is historically old and the sideways lack of action will wear out most.This is a period of accumulation.

The games major players spoort pedigrees in wealth and patience.There largest motivation is risk aversion and an appreciation of value.Slow accumulation of greasts tocks at or near book value is a patient mans joy.


Why buy stocks?
Because no one else is !!!!!!

That my friend is why it should be done during this next bottom.Over time the transaction will reward you with a multiple bagger.


Caution do not enter without patience and purchasing power.

It is afterall the only safe game in town.

The lower the price the lower the risk the higher the return in the future.

A traders Manifest requires that his positions are taken when the majority of others are going the other way.

Trins all but record 5.79 on March 10th shows the lemmings are jumping off the cliff - scared of what's behind them and tired from the long run up the hill - the cliff looks like the only alternative.

We must be selective here - but I can almost smell the opportunity - the taste is yet to come.

JMHO

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (2769)3/13/2003 11:47:03 AM
From: Nemer
   of 12305
 
Bob ..

give you Mom a big Texas hug from me ...

glad you are there

I know from experience how important your presence is to her

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To: Nemer who wrote (2770)3/13/2003 12:04:15 PM
From: robert b furman
   of 12305
 
Hi Nemer,

Thanks I'll do it.

It is really pretty today - blue skies 2-3 inches of fresh snow.

Rabbit tracks and wild cat tracks on the back porch - tens of species of birds eating off the big bird seed feeders.

I'm going out with a chain saw and trimming some of the pines Dad and I planted 30 years ago.

I like the warmth of Texas - but it is too pretty to stay inside.

Just wish Wisconsin had some bigg and close mountains - Gives me the itch to go skiing.

Thanks again.

Bob

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