Yeah, that seems a reasonable ending but when and how much higher is also important. Rebalancing a balanced portfolio can mean you have 50% more money if the market doubles again then still have plenty to buy a 50% decline from that level.
No, because I wouldn't say it is "About right". I really have no idea. I don't buy "the market". I buy individual stocks. Although it is true that I have opinions about the market. Opinions which are very fluid and can change on a dime depending on circumstances.
This is day early to post the results of the week for the SOXM stocks and major indices, but some interesting results so far.
There are 9 stocks down so far, and among them are AMAT(-1.3%), ASML(-1.6%), KLAC(-4.1%)(at the bottom), and LRCX(-1.2%), all 4 of the big semi-equip makers. At the same time, the SOX is up +14.32(+1.2%), COMPX UP +89.40(+1.4%), DOW up +373.40(+1.7%), and the SPX up +32.86(+1.3%).
INTC(+3.8%) and AMD(+4.6%) are doing great while MU is up +4 cents(+0.1%), along with the SOXM up +1.10(+0.1%), both trying to keep their "chin above water":-)
My guess is the FED will be behind the curve on increases in inflation, that will start next year. I expect Trump to appoint a new Fed Chief who will be slow to raise rates (they will raise two or three time by 1/4 instead of by 1/2). Also, with the midterm elections the Fed will feel pressure not change rates. Inflation will come from wages and housing costs. I expect by 2019, the experts will be justifying S&P multiples of 24-25. I am a value investor who will need a supply of Xanax by 2019.
I am a retiree with no bonds. I use pensions and SS income for stable income. I keep a large (20-40%) cash position to lower the risk of my aggressive stock portfolio. I generate returns on the large cash position by selective short term trades. Trading in and out of my cash position has generated a 5-6% short term return. A large number of my trades have been in MU and INTC. Currently I have just entered SWKS.
I like it going into earnings and I think it will make a run at that 2015 high. Since it is a trade, I hope to be out before earnings at 110 or whenever it gets overbought. I like to trade stocks that I wouldn't mind owning.