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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (77290)10/5/2017 2:12:21 PM
From: Kirk ©
   of 77467
 
Are we in a bubble?

Poll with bull and bear case: siliconinvestor.com

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To: Kirk © who wrote (77298)10/5/2017 3:39:10 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom
1 Recommendation   of 77467
 
I voted.:-)

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To: Kirk © who wrote (77298)10/5/2017 3:57:05 PM
From: Sam
   of 77467
 
Perhaps you should add a line, "Don't know" or "No opinion".

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To: Kirk © who wrote (77298)10/5/2017 4:03:22 PM
From: seminole
1 Recommendation   of 77467
 
I voted!
With low but increasing interest rates, a shortages of housing inventory, near full employment,
an aging population, and a confused Fed; this economic expansion will not end well.
I expect a bear market in the bond market to fuel a final leg up and bubble in the stock market.

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To: Sam who wrote (77300)10/5/2017 4:09:18 PM
From: Kirk ©
   of 77467
 
Wouldn't that be similar to about right? That is what I consider risks and rewards are equal.

I'd add that if I could. Perhaps post that as a reply to the poll so we can click the "replies" and see all who don't know.

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To: seminole who wrote (77301)10/5/2017 4:10:40 PM
From: Kirk ©
   of 77467
 
Yeah, that seems a reasonable ending but when and how much higher is also important. Rebalancing a balanced portfolio can mean you have 50% more money if the market doubles again then still have plenty to buy a 50% decline from that level.

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To: Kirk © who wrote (77302)10/5/2017 4:15:22 PM
From: Sam
   of 77467
 
No, because I wouldn't say it is "About right". I really have no idea. I don't buy "the market". I buy individual stocks. Although it is true that I have opinions about the market. Opinions which are very fluid and can change on a dime depending on circumstances.

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To: Sam who wrote (77304)10/5/2017 4:24:55 PM
From: Kirk ©
   of 77467
 
Too bad I can't edit it... I'll try to remember to have "no opinion, I don't know" for the next one.

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From: Donald Wennerstrom10/5/2017 4:48:09 PM
2 Recommendations   of 77467
 
This is day early to post the results of the week for the SOXM stocks and major indices, but some interesting results so far.

There are 9 stocks down so far, and among them are AMAT(-1.3%), ASML(-1.6%), KLAC(-4.1%)(at the bottom), and LRCX(-1.2%), all 4 of the big semi-equip makers. At the same time, the SOX is up +14.32(+1.2%), COMPX UP +89.40(+1.4%), DOW up +373.40(+1.7%), and the SPX up +32.86(+1.3%).

INTC(+3.8%) and AMD(+4.6%) are doing great while MU is up +4 cents(+0.1%), along with the SOXM up +1.10(+0.1%), both trying to keep their "chin above water":-)


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To: Kirk © who wrote (77303)10/5/2017 5:07:33 PM
From: seminole
   of 77467
 
My guess is the FED will be behind the curve on increases in inflation, that will start next year.
I expect Trump to appoint a new Fed Chief who will be slow to raise rates (they will raise two or three time by 1/4 instead of by 1/2).
Also, with the midterm elections the Fed will feel pressure not change rates. Inflation will come from wages and housing costs.
I expect by 2019, the experts will be justifying S&P multiples of 24-25. I am a value investor who will need a supply of Xanax by 2019.

I am a retiree with no bonds. I use pensions and SS income for stable income. I keep a large (20-40%) cash position to lower the risk of my aggressive stock portfolio.
I generate returns on the large cash position by selective short term trades. Trading in and out of my cash position has generated a 5-6% short term return.
A large number of my trades have been in MU and INTC. Currently I have just entered SWKS.

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