Technology Stocks | Wennerstrom Semi Equipment Analysis


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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (56169)5/4/2012 5:56:15 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom4 Recommendations   of 59979
 
This is the weekly update of the 13 week rolling quarter for the SOXM stocks in terms of percent change.

Sixteen of the 20 stocks have losses over the period. The bloom is off the rose. The semis have been taking a beating over the 13 weeks while the other indices have managed a small gain.

Just 5 weeks ago, the 13 week results were very different. So much so, that I am posting that look right below this weeks results. A "teachable" moment if you will of how important it is to buy and sell at the right point. For the short term trader, good gains can turn into large losses in a hurry.



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From: Gottfried5/4/2012 8:11:28 PM
1 Recommendation   of 59979
 
bpNDX fell six to 66% [KLAC MRVL GOLD CHKP CELG ALXN]

Apr23 Apr24 Apr25 Apr26 Apr27 Apr30 May01 May02 May03 May04













ADBE ADBE ADBE
ADBE ADBE ADBE ADP ADP ADP
ADP ADBE ADBE ADBE ADP ADP ADSK ADSK ADSK
ADSK ADP ADP ADP ADSK ADSK ALXN ALXN ALXN
AKAM ADSK ADSK ADSK ALXN ALXN AMAT AMAT AMAT
ALXN AKAM AKAM ALXN AMAT AMAT AMGN AMGN AMGN
AMAT ALXN ALXN AMAT AMGN AMGN AMZN AMZN AMZN ADBE
AMGN AMAT AMAT AMGN AMZN AMZN ATVI ATVI ATVI ADP
AMZN AMGN AMGN AMZN ATVI ATVI AVGO AVGO AVGO ADSK
ATVI AMZN AMZN ATVI AVGO AVGO BBBY BBBY BBBY AMAT
AVGO ATVI ATVI AVGO BBBY BBBY BIIB BIIB BIIB AMGN
BBBY AVGO AVGO BBBY BIIB BIIB BMC BMC BMC AMZN
BIIB BBBY BBBY BIIB BMC BMC BRCM BRCM BRCM ATVI
BMC BIIB BIIB BMC BRCM BRCM CA CA CA AVGO
BRCM BMC BMC BRCM CA CA CELG CELG CELG BBBY
CA BRCM BRCM CA CELG CELG CERN CERN CERN BIIB
CELG CA CA CELG CERN CERN CHKP CHKP CHKP BMC
CERN CELG CELG CERN CHKP CHKP CMCSA CMCSA CMCSA BRCM
CHKP CERN CERN CHKP CMCSA CMCSA COST COST COST CA
CMCSA CHKP CHKP CMCSA COST COST CSCO CSCO CSCO CERN
COST CMCSA CMCSA COST CSCO CSCO CTSH CTSH CTSH CMCSA
CSCO COST COST CSCO CTSH CTSH CTXS CTXS CTXS COST
CTSH CSCO CSCO CTSH CTXS CTXS DELL DELL DELL CSCO
CTXS CTSH CTSH CTXS DELL DELL DLTR DLTR DLTR CTSH
DELL CTXS CTXS DELL DLTR DLTR DTV DTV DTV CTXS
DLTR DELL DELL DLTR DTV DTV EBAY EBAY EBAY DELL
DTV DLTR DLTR DTV EBAY EBAY ESRX ESRX ESRX DLTR
EBAY DTV DTV EBAY ESRX ESRX EXPD EXPD EXPD DTV
ESRX EBAY EBAY ESRX EXPD EXPD EXPE EXPE EXPE EBAY
EXPD ESRX ESRX EXPD EXPE EXPE FAST FAST FAST ESRX
EXPE EXPD EXPD EXPE FAST FAST FFIV FFIV FFIV EXPD
FAST EXPE EXPE FAST FFIV FFIV FISV FISV FISV EXPE
FFIV FAST FAST FFIV FISV FISV FLEX FLEX FLEX FAST
FISV FFIV FFIV FISV FLEX FLEX FOSL FOSL FOSL FFIV
FLEX FISV FISV FLEX GILD GILD GILD GILD GILD FISV
GILD FLEX FLEX GILD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD FLEX
GRMN GILD GILD GOLD GRMN GRMN GRMN GRMN GRMN FOSL
HSIC GRMN GRMN GRMN HSIC HSIC HSIC HSIC HSIC GILD
INTC HSIC HSIC HSIC INTC INTC INTC INTC INTC GRMN
ISRG INTC INTC INTC ISRG ISRG ISRG ISRG ISRG HSIC
KLAC ISRG ISRG ISRG KLAC KLAC KLAC KLAC KLAC INTC
LIFE KLAC KLAC KLAC LINTA LINTA LINTA LINTA LINTA ISRG
LINTA LINTA LINTA LINTA LLTC LLTC LLTC LLTC LLTC LINTA
LLTC LLTC LLTC LLTC LRCX LRCX LRCX LRCX LRCX LLTC
LRCX LRCX LRCX LRCX MAT MAT MAT MAT MAT LRCX
MAT MAT MAT MAT MCHP MCHP MCHP MCHP MCHP MAT
MCHP MCHP MCHP MCHP MNST MNST MNST MNST MNST MCHP
MNST MNST MNST MNST MRVL MRVL MRVL MRVL MRVL MNST
MRVL MRVL MRVL MRVL MSFT MSFT MSFT MSFT MSFT MSFT
MSFT MSFT MSFT MSFT MU MU MU MU MU MU
MU MU MU MU MXIM MXIM MXIM MXIM MXIM MXIM
MXIM MXIM MXIM MXIM MYL MYL MYL MYL MYL MYL
MYL MYL MYL MYL NUAN NUAN NUAN NUAN NUAN NUAN
NUAN NUAN NUAN NUAN NWSA NWSA NWSA NWSA NWSA NWSA
NWSA NWSA NWSA NWSA ORLY ORLY ORLY ORLY ORLY ORLY
ORLY ORLY ORLY ORLY PAYX PAYX PAYX PAYX PAYX PAYX
PAYX PAYX PAYX PAYX PCLN PCLN PCLN PCLN PCLN PCLN
PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO
QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM
ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST
SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL
SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS
SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS STX STX STX STX STX STX
STX STX STX STX TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA
TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TXN TXN TXN TXN TXN TXN
TXN TXN TXN TXN VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD
VOD VOD VOD VOD VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN
VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX
WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM
WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN
XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX
XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY

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To: Gottfried who wrote (56171)5/4/2012 8:19:03 PM
From: Gottfried2 Recommendations   of 59979
 
1 new 52 week NDX high(s)
		
05/04/2012
Open High Low Close Volume
WFM 89.72 91.5 89.71 89.96 2654392

3 new 52 week NDX low(s)
		
05/04/2012
Open High Low Close Volume
APOL 34.2 34.59 33.65 33.87 1468160
CTRP 20.1 20.1 19.44 19.91 2594879
RIMM 12.01 12.14 11.71 12.01 21298750

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (56170)5/5/2012 10:54:49 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom1 Recommendation   of 59979
 
This is the weekly look at the Group stocks in terms of earnings estimates, growth estimates and price changes sorted by price percent change.

A wide swing for 1 week from VECO with a 16.1 percent gain to FSII with a 12.9 percent loss.


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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (56173)5/5/2012 11:00:43 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom1 Recommendation   of 59979
 
This is the same Group data as the last post, but this time it is sorted by PEG.

Even though VECO was up nearly 5 dollars a share for the week, the Group was down about 12 dollars a share at the bottom line.


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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (56174)5/5/2012 11:05:20 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom1 Recommendation   of 59979
 
This is the weekly look at the SOXM stocks in terms of earnings estimates, growth estimates, and price changes sorted by price percent change.

Only CREE made a gain this week. At the bottom line the SOXM stocks were down about 34 dollars a share for the week.


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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (56175)5/5/2012 11:11:11 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom1 Recommendation   of 59979
 
This is the same SOXM data as the last post, but this time it is sorted by PEG.

WFR shows up with a PE of 5. Quarterly and yearly earnings are expected to be reported this week. Should be very interesting, their report of past performance, but even more so their outlook going forward.


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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (56176)5/5/2012 11:40:32 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom1 Recommendation   of 59979
 
This is the weekly update of the Group and SOXM(SOX) tables in terms of earnings estimates and price changes.

First, the earnings changes. Curr Yr earnings for both the Group and SOXM rose slightly from the previous week's interim lows. I wouldn't put too much significance on this move since quarterly and yearly earnings are being influenced by the recent earnings reports. Another 2 or 3 weeks should tell us more about the ongoing trend of earnings outlook as 2011 results fade into the past and new data is generated for 2012(Curr Yr) and 2013(Nxt Yr).

Now looking at the index numbers, both the Group and SOX hit interim highs the week of 3/30. Since then, the Group has gone from 420.55 to 404.29(-3.9%), and the SOX has gone from 438.64 to 397.94(-9.3%). This is a 5 week period where the SOX is down nearly 10 percent, and this past week the SOX closed at under 400 for the first time since the week of 1/13, a period of 15 weeks.








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From: Gottfried5/5/2012 5:58:59 PM
2 Recommendations   of 59979
 
12 year jobs growth chart. Note that from 2004 to 2008 it was often just as anemic as now

tradingeconomics.com 

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To: Gottfried who wrote (56178)5/5/2012 6:16:30 PM
From: FUBHO3 Recommendations   of 59979
 
Here is another comparison from last summer. Keep in mind, even more people have left the work force since this graph was made. Labor force participation rate is now at its lowest level since 1981.



The End of the Growth Consensus

America added 44 million jobs in the 1980s and '90s, when both parties showed they had learned from past mistakes. The lessons have been forgotten.
July 21, 2011

This month marks the two-year anniversary of the official start of the recovery from the 2007-09 recession. But it's a recovery in name only: Real gross domestic product growth has averaged only 2.8% per year compared with 7.1% after the most recent deep recession in 1981-82. The growth slowdown this year—to about 1.5% in the second quarter—is not only disappointing, it's a reminder that the recovery has been stalled from the start. As shown in the nearby chart, the percentage of the working-age population that is actually working has declined since the start of the recovery in sharp contrast to 1983-84. With unemployment still over 9%, there is an urgent need to change course.

Some blame the weak recovery on special factors such as high personal saving rates as households repair their balance sheets. But people are consuming a larger fraction of their income now than they were in the 1983-84 recovery: The personal savings rate is 5.6% now compared with 9.4% then. Others blame certain sectors such as weak housing. But the weak housing sector is much less of a negative factor today than declining net exports were in the 1983-84 recovery, and the problem isn't confined to any particular sector. The broad categories of investment and consumption are both contributing less to growth. Real GDP growth is 60%-70% less than in the early-'80s recovery, as is growth in consumption and investment.

In my view, the best way to understand the problems confronting the American economy is to go back to the basic principles upon which the country was founded—economic freedom and political freedom. With lessons learned from the century's tougher decades, including the Great Depression of the '30s and the Great Inflation of the '70s, America entered a period of unprecedented economic stability and growth in the '80s and '90s. Not only was job growth amazingly strong—44 million jobs were created during those expansions—it was a more stable and sustained growth period than ever before in American history.

Continues...

online.wsj.com 

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