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To: FUBHO who wrote (56158)5/3/2012 3:33:08 PM
From: Sam   of 60219
 
OT
No one says that the economy is "just fine." I posted this article several months ago, and it was written 6 months before that, but it is still apt commentary from Ken Rogoff.

The Second Great Contraction
Kenneth Rogoff
2011-08-02

CAMBRIDGE – Why is everyone still referring to the recent financial crisis as the “Great Recession”? The term, after all, is predicated on a dangerous misdiagnosis of the problems that confront the United States and other countries, leading to bad forecasts and bad policy.

The phrase “Great Recession” creates the impression that the economy is following the contours of a typical recession, only more severe – something like a really bad cold. That is why, throughout this downturn, forecasters and analysts who have tried to make analogies to past post-war US recessions have gotten it so wrong. Moreover, too many policymakers have relied on the belief that, at the end of the day, this is just a deep recession that can be subdued by a generous helping of conventional policy tools, whether fiscal policy or massive bailouts.

But the real problem is that the global economy is badly overleveraged, and there is no quick escape without a scheme to transfer wealth from creditors to debtors, either through defaults, financial repression, or inflation.

A more accurate, if less reassuring, term for the ongoing crisis is the “Second Great Contraction.” Carmen Reinhart and I proposed this moniker in our 2009 book This Time is Different, based on our diagnosis of the crisis as a typical deep financial crisis, not a typical deep recession. The first “Great Contraction” of course, was the Great Depression, as emphasized by Anna Schwarz and the late Milton Friedman. The contraction applies not only to output and employment, as in a normal recession, but to debt and credit, and the deleveraging that typically takes many years to complete.

Why argue about semantics? Well, imagine you have pneumonia, but you think it is only a bad cold. You could easily fail to take the right medicine, and you would certainly expect your life to return to normal much faster than is realistic.

In a conventional recession, the resumption of growth implies a reasonably brisk return to normalcy. The economy not only regains its lost ground, but, within a year, it typically catches up to its rising long-run trend.

The aftermath of a typical deep financial crisis is something completely different. As Reinhart and I demonstrated, it typically takes an economy more than four years just to reach the same per capita income level that it had attained at its pre-crisis peak. So far, across a broad range of macroeconomic variables, including output, employment, debt, housing prices, and even equity, our quantitative benchmarks based on previous deep post-war financial crises have proved far more accurate than conventional recession logic.

Many commentators have argued that fiscal stimulus has largely failed not because it was misguided, but because it was not large enough to fight a “Great Recession.” But, in a “Great Contraction,” problem number one is too much debt. If governments that retain strong credit ratings are to spend scarce resources effectively, the most effective approach is to catalyze debt workouts and reductions.

For example, governments could facilitate the write-down of mortgages in exchange for a share of any future home-price appreciation. An analogous approach can be done for countries. For example, rich countries’ voters in Europe could perhaps be persuaded to engage in a much larger bailout for Greece (one that is actually big enough to work), in exchange for higher payments in ten to fifteen years if Greek growth outperforms.

Is there any alternative to years of political gyrations and indecision?

In my December 2008 column, I argued that the only practical way to shorten the coming period of painful deleveraging and slow growth would be a sustained burst of moderate inflation, say, 4-6% for several years. Of course, inflation is an unfair and arbitrary transfer of income from savers to debtors. But, at the end of the day, such a transfer is the most direct approach to faster recovery. Eventually, it will take place one way or another, anyway, as Europe is painfully learning.

Some observers regard any suggestion of even modestly elevated inflation as a form of heresy. But Great Contractions, as opposed to recessions, are very infrequent events, occurring perhaps once every 70 or 80 years. These are times when central banks need to spend some of the credibility that they accumulate in normal times.

The big rush to jump on the “Great Recession” bandwagon happened because most analysts and policymakers simply had the wrong framework in mind. Unfortunately, by now it is far too clear how wrong they were.

Acknowledging that we have been using the wrong framework is the first step toward finding a solution. History suggests that recessions are often renamed when the smoke clears. Perhaps today the smoke will clear a bit faster if we dump the “Great Recession” label immediately and replace it with something more apt, like “Great Contraction.” It is too late to undo the bad forecasts and mistaken policies that have marked the aftermath of the financial crisis, but it is not too late to do better.

Kenneth ROGOFF is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2011.
www.project-syndicate.org


project-syndicate.org 

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To: Sam who wrote (56159)5/3/2012 4:11:07 PM
From: Return to Sender1 Recommendation   of 60219
 
Sam, are we closer to a market top or market bottom now?




Is sentiment showing much fear?

I would agree that the market could continue on higher for a while. All it would take is a mere 7.2% gain for the INDU to hit a double top. Market breadth is not what it needs to be for the market to go any higher than that in my humble opinion.

I think the SOX has already topped for this cycle.

RtS

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (56160)5/3/2012 5:15:08 PM
From: Sam   of 60219
 
Neither the article nor I was speaking to that issue, RtS. I was only saying that everyone agrees that the economy needs to get better, and the article was pointing to reasons why it hasn't been--the latest recession wasn't a normal recession.

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To: Sam who wrote (56161)5/3/2012 5:40:18 PM
From: Gottfried1 Recommendation   of 60219
 
bpNDX still 72%

Apr20 Apr23 Apr24 Apr25 Apr26 Apr27 Apr30 May01 May02 May03













ADBE ADBE ADBE ADBE
ADP ADBE ADBE ADBE ADP ADP ADP
ADSK ADP ADBE ADBE ADBE ADP ADP ADSK ADSK ADSK
AKAM ADSK ADP ADP ADP ADSK ADSK ALXN ALXN ALXN
ALXN AKAM ADSK ADSK ADSK ALXN ALXN AMAT AMAT AMAT
AMAT ALXN AKAM AKAM ALXN AMAT AMAT AMGN AMGN AMGN
AMGN AMAT ALXN ALXN AMAT AMGN AMGN AMZN AMZN AMZN
AMZN AMGN AMAT AMAT AMGN AMZN AMZN ATVI ATVI ATVI
ATVI AMZN AMGN AMGN AMZN ATVI ATVI AVGO AVGO AVGO
AVGO ATVI AMZN AMZN ATVI AVGO AVGO BBBY BBBY BBBY
BBBY AVGO ATVI ATVI AVGO BBBY BBBY BIIB BIIB BIIB
BIDU BBBY AVGO AVGO BBBY BIIB BIIB BMC BMC BMC
BIIB BIIB BBBY BBBY BIIB BMC BMC BRCM BRCM BRCM
BMC BMC BIIB BIIB BMC BRCM BRCM CA CA CA
BRCM BRCM BMC BMC BRCM CA CA CELG CELG CELG
CA CA BRCM BRCM CA CELG CELG CERN CERN CERN
CELG CELG CA CA CELG CERN CERN CHKP CHKP CHKP
CERN CERN CELG CELG CERN CHKP CHKP CMCSA CMCSA CMCSA
CHKP CHKP CERN CERN CHKP CMCSA CMCSA COST COST COST
CMCSA CMCSA CHKP CHKP CMCSA COST COST CSCO CSCO CSCO
COST COST CMCSA CMCSA COST CSCO CSCO CTSH CTSH CTSH
CSCO CSCO COST COST CSCO CTSH CTSH CTXS CTXS CTXS
CTSH CTSH CSCO CSCO CTSH CTXS CTXS DELL DELL DELL
CTXS CTXS CTSH CTSH CTXS DELL DELL DLTR DLTR DLTR
DELL DELL CTXS CTXS DELL DLTR DLTR DTV DTV DTV
DLTR DLTR DELL DELL DLTR DTV DTV EBAY EBAY EBAY
DTV DTV DLTR DLTR DTV EBAY EBAY ESRX ESRX ESRX
EBAY EBAY DTV DTV EBAY ESRX ESRX EXPD EXPD EXPD
ESRX ESRX EBAY EBAY ESRX EXPD EXPD EXPE EXPE EXPE
EXPD EXPD ESRX ESRX EXPD EXPE EXPE FAST FAST FAST
EXPE EXPE EXPD EXPD EXPE FAST FAST FFIV FFIV FFIV
FAST FAST EXPE EXPE FAST FFIV FFIV FISV FISV FISV
FFIV FFIV FAST FAST FFIV FISV FISV FLEX FLEX FLEX
FISV FISV FFIV FFIV FISV FLEX FLEX FOSL FOSL FOSL
FLEX FLEX FISV FISV FLEX GILD GILD GILD GILD GILD
FOSL GILD FLEX FLEX GILD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD
GILD GRMN GILD GILD GOLD GRMN GRMN GRMN GRMN GRMN
GRMN HSIC GRMN GRMN GRMN HSIC HSIC HSIC HSIC HSIC
HSIC INTC HSIC HSIC HSIC INTC INTC INTC INTC INTC
INTC ISRG INTC INTC INTC ISRG ISRG ISRG ISRG ISRG
ISRG KLAC ISRG ISRG ISRG KLAC KLAC KLAC KLAC KLAC
KLAC LIFE KLAC KLAC KLAC LINTA LINTA LINTA LINTA LINTA
LIFE LINTA LINTA LINTA LINTA LLTC LLTC LLTC LLTC LLTC
LINTA LLTC LLTC LLTC LLTC LRCX LRCX LRCX LRCX LRCX
LLTC LRCX LRCX LRCX LRCX MAT MAT MAT MAT MAT
LRCX MAT MAT MAT MAT MCHP MCHP MCHP MCHP MCHP
MAT MCHP MCHP MCHP MCHP MNST MNST MNST MNST MNST
MCHP MNST MNST MNST MNST MRVL MRVL MRVL MRVL MRVL
MNST MRVL MRVL MRVL MRVL MSFT MSFT MSFT MSFT MSFT
MRVL MSFT MSFT MSFT MSFT MU MU MU MU MU
MSFT MU MU MU MU MXIM MXIM MXIM MXIM MXIM
MU MXIM MXIM MXIM MXIM MYL MYL MYL MYL MYL
MXIM MYL MYL MYL MYL NUAN NUAN NUAN NUAN NUAN
MYL NUAN NUAN NUAN NUAN NWSA NWSA NWSA NWSA NWSA
NUAN NWSA NWSA NWSA NWSA ORLY ORLY ORLY ORLY ORLY
NWSA ORLY ORLY ORLY ORLY PAYX PAYX PAYX PAYX PAYX
ORLY PAYX PAYX PAYX PAYX PCLN PCLN PCLN PCLN PCLN
PAYX PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO PRGO
PRGO QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM
QCOM ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST
ROST SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL
SBUX SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS
SIAL SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS STX STX STX STX STX
SPLS STX STX STX STX TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA
STX TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TXN TXN TXN TXN TXN
TEVA TXN TXN TXN TXN VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD
VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN
VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX
WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM
WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN
XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX
XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY

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To: Gottfried who wrote (56162)5/3/2012 5:48:16 PM
From: Gottfried2 Recommendations   of 60219
 
3 new 52 week NDX highs
		
05/03/2012
Open High Low Close Volume
BIIB 135.52 135.84 133.59 134.26 1269647
ROST 63.76 64.79 63.37 63.71 2621876
WFM 87.49 91.06 87.49 90.69 7438234


3 new 52 week NDX low
		
05/03/2012
Open High Low Close Volume
CTRP 20.48 20.66 19.84 20.07 3077026
GMCR 29.515 30.29 24.4 25.87 87187336
RIMM 12.82 12.88 11.92 12.04 32815368

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To: Sam who wrote (56161)5/3/2012 9:23:46 PM
From: Return to Sender1 Recommendation   of 60219
 
From Briefing.com: 4:30 pm : The major equity averages started the session near the neutral line, but a lack of support left stocks to slide into negative territory. They settled only modestly above session lows as participants prepared for a highly anticipated payrolls report after receiving a mixed batch of data.

Sentiment improved slightly ahead of the open when it was learned that 365,000 initial jobless claims were filed for the week ended April 28, down from the prior week total of 392,000 and less than the 375,000 claims that had been broadly expected, but the accompanying bid proved temporary. Many simply shrugged off a 2.0% increase in first quarter unit labor costs and a 0.5% decline in productivity -- the Briefing.com consensus called for an increase of 3.0% and a decline of 0.8%, respectively.

Stocks chopped along without much direction in the opening minutes of trade, but sellers were stirred by the latest. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. After a print of 56.0 in the prior month it pulled back to 53.5 for April. Many had expected a more modest decline to 55.5.

Given the lack of actual leadership, stocks were unable to sustain a mid-morning rebound effort. Sectors with meaningful market weight, like Tech, Financials, and Energy, were weak all afternoon. Each suffered a loss of roughly 1% or more.

For the second straight session Energy stocks were the worst performers. Collectively, they declined 1.5% after a 1.6% slide in the prior session.

Suffering a 1.1% loss, Materials stocks also succumbed to stiff selling pressure. Weakness among natural resource plays was likely exacerbated by a drop in commodity prices -- the CRB Commodity Index fell 0.9% after a 1.3% loss in the prior session.

The drop by commodities came even though the dollar mustered only a modest gain today. As of the close it was up just 0.1% against a basket of major foreign currencies. It was flat versus the euro, which moved modestly earlier in the day amid hawkish commentary from European Central Bank President Draghi.

Earnings were given little regard in the broader market, but quarterly reports provided fodder for traders of individual stocks. Visa (V 116.41, -5.78), General Motors (GM 22.37, -0.56), and Prudential (PRU 54.62, -6.32) all posted upside surprises, but still suffered losses. Allstate (ALL 34.23, +1.32) staged a strong climb after it announced.

Even amid the headlines of the day market participants remained mindful that tomorrow morning brings the government's official nonfarm payrolls report. Earlier this week a glimpse of what monthly payrolls might look like was provided by the ADP Employment Report, which suggested that fewer jobs were added in April than what many had expected. Economists polled by Briefing.com expect, on average, that nonfarm payrolls officially grew by roughly 160,000 in April.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Staples +0.1%, Telecom +0.1%
Declining Sectors: Health Care -0.4%, Utilities -0.6%, Consumer Discretionary -0.7%, Financials -0.9%, Industrials -0.9%, Tech -1.0%, Materials -1.1%, Energy -1.5%DJ30 -61.98 NASDAQ -35.55 NQ100 -1.1% R2K -1.5% SP400 -1.7% SP500 -10.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 643/1.84 bln/1897 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 900/844 mln/2094

4:42PM Sierra Wireless beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (SWIR) 7.04 +0.16 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.16 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.08; revenues rose 4.2% year/year to $150.3 mln vs the $145.35 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.18-0.21, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.12 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q2 revs of $157-162 mln vs. $152.48 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. "Overall I am very pleased with our Q1 results and trajectory. We have strengthened our operating model and have good visibility to growth drivers in both M2M and Mobile Computing."

4:15PM QLogic beats by $0.02, misses on revs (QLGC) : Reports Q4 (Mar) earnings of $0.34 per share, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.32; revenues fell 11.3% year/year to $135.1 mln vs the $137.58 mln consensus.

4:08PM TriQuint Semi announces $50 mln stock repurchase program (TQNT) 4.60 -0.29 :

4:08PM First Solar misses by $0.69, misses on revs; guides FY12 EPS in-line (FSLR) 18.07 +0.25 : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.08 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.69 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.61; revenues fell 12.3% year/year to $497 mln vs the $688.57 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY12, sees EPS of $4.00-4.50 vs. $4.03 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

"First Solar's performance in the quarter was impacted by an aggressive competitive environment resulting from persistent supply-demand imbalances in the market, as well as restructuring costs that will improve our operating efficiency and help position us for the future," said Mike Ahearn, Chairman of the Board. "Looking forward, we are confident we have the right long-term strategy and the right platform to enable long-term growth and value creation. We believe that by executing our strategic roadmaps and completing our restructuring program we can achieve our targets of 2.6 to 3.0 GW of sales in sustainable markets, earning a return on invested capital of 13 to 17 percent by 2016."

Based on reductions in First Solar's ongoing cost structure related to our restructuring initiatives, the Company is increasing 2012 guidance as follows: Earnings per fully diluted share guidance to $4.00-$4.50, compared to prior guidance of $3.75-$4.25, in each case excluding restructuring and impairment charges, and costs in excess of normal warranty expense; Operating cash flow guidance to $850-$950 million, compared to prior guidance of $800-$900 million.

4:06PM Power Integrations beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus (POWI) 37.21 -0.93 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.36 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.27; revenues fell 6.5% year/year to $71.8 mln vs the $67.26 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $78-84 mln vs. $74.42 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. For Q2, Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to increase by approximately one percentage point compared with the first quarter (calculated by excluding from GAAP cost of revenues approximately $0.3 million of stock-based compensation, $0.5 million of amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets and $1.5 million of amortization of the write-up of acquired inventory). GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 47 percent.

TSMC (TSM) announced its 28nm high performance ARM Cortex-A9 dual-core processor test chip achieved 3.1GHz performance under typical conditions.

ON Semiconductor (ONNN $8.83 +0.52) reported first quarter earnings of $0.12 per share, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.09, while revenues fell 14.5% year/year to $744.4 million versus the $742.89 million consensus. Gross margin was 32.9%. The company issued in-line guidance for the second quarter revenues of $745-785 million versus the $783.97 million consensus Co states, "Backlog levels for 2Q12 represent approximately 80 to 85% of our anticipated second quarter 2012 revenues. We expect that average selling prices for the second quarter of 2012 will be down approximately one to two percent when compared to the first quarter of 2012. The non-GAAP outlook for the second quarter of 2012 includes stock-based compensation expense of approximately $8 to $10 million."

JDS Uniphase (JDSU $11.87 -0.14) Reports Q3 (Mar) earnings of $0.11 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.11, while revenues fell 9.9% year/year to $409.2 million versus the $420.28 million consensus. The company issued downside guidance for the fourth quarter with revenues of $415-435 million versus the $458.08 million consensus.

09:20 am Atmel downgraded to Hold at Capstone Investments: . Capstone Investments downgrades ATML to Hold from Buy as they believe growth within Touch ICs has likely plateaued. Firm says with limited upside from prior two leading customers they are more concerned about future growth prospects from touch IC products. They have noted recent OEM decisions to swap-out one touch IC vendor for another suggesting limited differentiation among touch offerings.

10:48 am Information Technology sector declines along with overall market

The tech sector is trading lower today, inline with losses in the broader market. Semiconductors are showing relative weakness with the Philly Semi Index trading 0.7% lower. WFR (-3.3%) is a notable laggard in that chip index. Among other major indices, the SPY is trading 0.4% lower today, while the QQQ is down 0.3% and the NASDAQ is trading 0.5% lower on the session.

Among tech bellwethers, GOOG (+0.7%) is showing notable strength. In earnings last night, ONNN (+4.3%) posted a quarterly beat and issued inline guidance and TDC (+6.5%) posted a beat and raise. Elsewhere, JDSU (-3.6%) and MITK (-48.1%) reported misses and downside guidance, while APKT (+0.4%) posted a miss but reaffirmed guidance. This morning, AMT (+2.6%) posted a beat, while KITD (-21.8%) preannounced downside guidance. In news, NOK (0.0%) has filed a patent related lawsuits against RIMM (-5.1%) and HTC, according to reports. Among rumors, there is renewed takeover chatter on FIO (-0.7%) making the rounds.

Among notable analyst upgrades this morning, CRM (+1.9%) was upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse and ONNN (+4.3%) was upgraded to Outperform at Pacific Crest. While in downgrades, NVTL (-17.1%) was downgraded to Market Perform at BMO Capital following last night's dissapointing results. LNKD (+1.3%), and MCHP (+.01%) are a few notable names in tech scheduled to report quarterly results today after the close.

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (56164)5/4/2012 5:11:28 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom2 Recommendations   of 60219
 
This is the weekly look at the Group stocks in terms of percent change.

A big red week than gained momentum on the downside as the week wore on. The one exception was VECO that had a blowout earnings report and an upside to the future outlook.


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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (56165)5/4/2012 5:17:14 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom2 Recommendations   of 60219
 
This is a longer 6 week look at the Group stocks in terms of percent change.

The Group did much better than the SOX over this period, down only 2.5 compared to 8.7 percent. Eight of the 18 stocks are down over 10 percent. MTSN in particular has been hit hard, down 24 percent.


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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (56166)5/4/2012 5:27:31 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom2 Recommendations   of 60219
 
This is the weekly update of the 13 week rolling quarter for the Group stocks in terms of percent change.

The dark green is all but gone. Only VECO has that color aided by very strong gains the weeks of 3/16 and 5/4. Seven of the 18 stocks are down over 10 percent with WFR in last place with a 35.5 percent loss. WFR is due to report earnings this coming week. Solar stocks have been taking a beating lately so this will be a very interesting report. WFR closed at 3.35 today.


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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (56167)5/4/2012 5:33:06 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom2 Recommendations   of 60219
 
This is the weekly look at the SOXM stocks in terms of percent change.

The SOXM, SMH, and SOX are down over 4 percent this week. The NASDAQ almost kept pace, down 3.7 percent. The big news is that CREE was the only stock in the green for the week.


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