|InvestmentHouse Weekend Market Summary|
-Stocks start stronger, give up the gains for a mixed close as the slow slog continues.
- Slow overall, but some solid moves from solid leaders.
- Michigan Sentiment Final jumps again.
- New home sales fall in January, but opposite of Existing Home Sales, they do so because of an upward revision in December numbers.
- Geithner says 'no quick fix' for gasoline problem. No there is not, but we would already be 'fixed' if we had taken action back when they last said there was no quick fix . . .
- President pushes algae fuel as he takes credit for higher oil production that had its beginnings before he was even running for President and when he has only 3% of offshore zones closed to drilling.
- Excess money helping fuel higher fuel prices.
- Indices end the week basically unchanged, i.e. still rising but making virtually no overall progress. Individual stocks are the upside key for now as we watch for rollover signs.
Indices try to make a meaningful move but suffer the afternoon dips.
Friday was heralded as the day that the Dow crossed 13K, and surely it did. It moved up to a whopping 13,014. It could not hold it again, however, and faded back below the magical 13K on the close. SP500 was said to have made a new closing high since 2008. Yea verily, it did, but it also did not break above its May intraday high. When you are talking about old highs, you have to talk about where it made it intraday. If you are playing a stock or index, then that makes a difference in a technical sense. Am I splitting hairs? Yes, I am.
There was virtually no change in the market as the indices closed mixed, but they did give up an early gain. We had a bit of that high-to-low action versus the low-to-high action that has been the hallmark of this rally. The low-to-high action is a positive because it shows buyers stepping in whenever there is a dip. We saw that this morning. Stocks open and sold back. There was that first-hour dip, and buyers came in and rallied stocks to session highs and pushed the SP500 to that new closing high. It was really looking good, almost breaking through the prior peak marking that bear market high. It could not quite do it, and it faded at that high. The buyers did not stay around until the close on Friday. It was hardly catastrophic. As noted, the indices are still very solid in their ranges, bumping up against -- or in some instances -- actually moving through the prior bear market highs.
We have the same action of a slow, steady move to the upside even though it was not shared by all of the indices on Friday.
SP500, +0.17%; NASDAQ, +0.23%; Dow, -0.1%; SP600, -0.4%; SOX, -0.2%
As I said, it was a mixed market. It was spread between the growth and the more stoic and staid large cap NYSE stocks and indices as well. It was a definite mixed bag on the day, and it was quite frustrating and boring. The indices are continuing this climb to nowhere. We have heard about the Bridge to Nowhere in Alaska. This is definitely not a move to nowhere, but it seems like it is going nowhere fast. There was an up day followed by a down day. Or a good, solid break to the upside followed by several days lateral. It is hard for the market to put together two (and dare we ask for three?) strong upside sessions back-to-back. I would even settle for every other day. Instead we get the slow slog to the upside.
That does not mean there were not good moves on the day. Some of the plays we were looking at broke nicely to the upside. FOSL is one of those apparel retailers doing quite well. It had a solid 2.5% break to the upside. VFC, another apparel maker, bounced nicely off of the 10 day EMA on rising volume. A very nice pullback to test its breakout, and it started to resume the move. They are out there. They are making upside moves, but it is more of a stock-by-stock basis. They are definitely moving, but the bigger moves are coming on individual names versus the overall market. That says something in itself; perhaps the market is tired. I have been saying that for a while.
Has it slowed the market? Yes. But it has not stopped the market. The move is definitely slower, but it is still moving higher and it has not put in that rounded-look looking top you get before selloffs. KLAC has a very classic-looking rounded top. The stock continued to work higher through late 2011, but as it did, MACD was putting in lower highs even as the stock put in higher price highs. Then there is a round off top spanning early January until basically this week. It broke below the 50 day EMA, and it tried to test on Wednesday and Thursday. Then Friday it broke lower once more. We have the move up on waning momentum, and then the rounding out at the top. Now perhaps we will have the rollover.
That puts this market in what they like to call on the financial stations "a stock-picker's market." That is where you have to get the right names. If you are a fundamental investor, that makes life very difficult for you. That is where technical analysis comes in. Frankly, we are always picking stocks. Every day we go through a big list of possible plays where we might put our money, and we decide whether it is worth it. Of those that are, we decide which have the best risk/reward, the best pattern, and are ready to go. Those are the ones that make it on the report. It is not something new for us, but it is something they like to talk about because it makes things a little more mysterious and supposedly difficult for the average investor. Anyone can do this, however. You do not have to be all that smart; you just have to understand how the market works and understand that it does not work the way you were taught that things should work. But that is a whole other story. While I teach some of it here, I have to teach classes to really get into that.
The other markets pretty much kept the trends they were following for the week as well.
Dollar. 1.3456 versus 1.3367 euro. It was a tough week for the dollar, and the closed lower again. It was a multi-month low versus the dollar (or a high versus the dollar, whichever way you want to look at it). It broke the dollar below its recent range in the index. The dollar stopped rising against the yen, and that has fueled this quick drop on Thursday and Friday in the DXY0. Of course it is down sharply against the euro as well.
The dollar should be getting stronger, in theory, if the U.S. economy is supposed to be stronger in the future. There is that offsetting problem of the eurozone. Money is moving back to the continent after spending time in the U.S. That is one of the reasons why the dollar is losing ground versus the euro. They are selling dollars in favor of buying euros.
Bonds. 1.98% versus 1.99% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds were up overall on the day, although the 10 year posted a very modest gain. Bonds are holding in their range. They have a little triangle set up, and they bounced this week. We will see if they can make a breakout. That would be counterintuitive to a stronger economy in the U.S. and a stronger recovery in Europe. Bonds would be stronger if there was worry about the economic future here, in Europe, or both. The fact that they are rallying would suggest some kind of problem down the road. It is important to note that they have not broken out and they are at the bottom of their range. While they may be rebounding this week, we have to the see if it is just a relief move or something more significant. Right now it does not suggest that it is anything terribly serious. If this pattern forms up a bit better and bonds start to make the breakout, that suggests something is out there that we have to worry about yet again.
Gold. 1,776.30, -9.90. Gold was off on the session. It took a breather after a very solid move up on the week. This week saw it resume the breakout from the channel formed from the fall off 2011 into early 2012. There was the breakout, the test, and then a great move to the upside this week. There was a little giveback on Friday. That is perfectly normal after a good week to the upside
Oil. 109.76, +1.93. Oil continues higher, painfully so. Quite the breakout on the week. Indeed, it was an impressive three-week move for oil. We were looking for a test but it was not showing up at the end of the week. Why not? There is stress from Iran and its issues with Israel, as well as other problems in the Middle East that keep tensions higher with respect to oil. Also there is the possibility of sanctions against Iran by the eurozone coming later. Iran is making it clear that it does not view that as a friendly act. No kidding.
There is also the dollar and its decline. As we used to see and talk about a lot in the past, oil tends to rise as the dollar weakens because it is nominated in dollars. It takes more dollars to buy every barrel of oil when the dollar value declines. You do not hear much about this right now as to why oil is high, but that is a very good reason why the moves are accelerating to the upside. The dollar is accelerating its decline against other currencies. It takes more dollars to have the same value for a barrel of oil. This despite the fact that there is a lot of oil in the U.S. right now. The President is taking credit for making the increased oil production possible. I will talk about that more later, but it is absolutely crazy. That is like a newly-elected mayor cutting the ribbon on a completed 20-story building that a company built and saying, "Thanks to the policies I have implemented, we were able to build this." A lot of it was built well before the mayor ever showed up. That is exactly what happened with the additional energy production we have now.
Internally it was rather boring on Friday.
Volume. NASDAQ -7.2%, 1.6B; NYSE -17%, 581M. Volume fell fairly sharply.
Breadth. NASDAQ, -1.2:1; NYSE +1.2:1
SP500. The SP500 is bumping right at that old post bear market high from 2011. It could not take it out. It fell back, but it put in that closing high that got everyone excited. Again, that does not mean much because it did not take out those old highs. It is still bumping, still working on it, and still not there.
DJ30. Same story with the Dow. It moved to a nominal new high, but then it faded back and was unable to close out the deal. Up on the week, yes, but still struggling to extend this break above those July 2011 highs.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ was up as well. It continues to try putting a little distance between it and those prior highs, but it is not making much headway. A nice 1-2-3 pullback during the week, a nice break to the upside on Thursday, but it could not consummate it on Friday. Very similar to last week.
SP600. The small caps were down a bit, struggling right below the prior peak. Moving now in a four-week lateral range, trying to get out of there. Not looking bad or rolling over, but we do see MACD falling lower, as with the other indices. It is making a lower high as the indices bump and try to put in that higher high. A bit of loss of momentum.
SOX. Last night I talked about the SOX and its nice pullback to the 20 day EMA. It tried to put in the bounce on Friday. It could not consummate it and fell back. Not a catastrophic rollover; it is still sitting above the 20 day EMA. It can still make the move, and we will see if it does. The semiconductors could provide a big boost for this market. If they get back on track and make more of these solid 3-4 session upside moves, that would really goose the other indices to the upside.
Semiconductors/Technology. I want to discuss those that I said were key and that we needed to watch. BRCM is attempting to hold at the 20 day EMA, make a higher low, and then try to push through the October 2011 peak. Very important test for BRCM because it is one of those AAPL-related semiconductors. Speaking of AAPL, it was up again. It posted a 1%+ gain on the day. It is right below this prior reversal-day peak. This will be an important test for AAPL. It has come right back up to that peak. The question is will it consolidate, make a higher low and break higher? Will it move right on through or will it reverse? Lower volume. MACD is still trying to make a move. It is nothing definitive yet. It is maybe just a bit low. We will see. This is a very important test for AAPL.
KLAC has put in that rounded top. It looks to be heading lower. That is the problem with chip equipment. NVLS has a rounded top. It is trying to hold the 50 day EMA, and it may do it. We will see. There is some trouble in semiconductors, but there are also good tidings there as well. Stocks such as BRCM are holding the line.
Retail. Retail remains solid. VFC had a nice break to the upside. It gave us the entry we were looking for. RL is trying to set up again for the new break to the upside. FOSL broke to a new rally high after that surge. It has given us the entry we were looking for as well.
Medical/Healthcare. ISRG looks to be making a new break to the upside. HNSN is another stock that we have played in the past. It looks like it could try to make a break to the upside. It has some serious resistance, but I just want to point out stocks that look to be coming around.
Manufacturing. HOLI had a nice break to the upside on Thursday and Friday. IR had a very nice flag pattern back to the 10 day EMA. We still have great stocks in great position to move higher, and they are moving higher. It is hard to bet against this kind of market.
What makes this kind of market run? Liquidity, baby. It has been the pump all along. Liquidity has fueled this recovery since basically day one. The turn at the bottom was from massive liquidity pumped into the system. For the initial rally, QE1 is what turned it. None of those other programs worked; QE1 brought stocks off of the bottom. Then we had the 2010 test. They did not know if there would be a QE2, and then it was announced in August. An inverted head and shoulders. The announcement was the catalyst, and shortly thereafter the market took off on another run up through early 2011. We knew that QE2 was ending in June, and the market started to falter ahead of that. It topped. It put in a head and shoulders. There was no QE3 announced, and the market sold off. Europe started to burn. With no QE3 the U.S. fell. The U.S. was in trouble, and then they announced twist. Twist rescued the market off of the lows. It was not enough to send it higher, however, because we still had the European problems. Then the Fed, the ECB, and four other world central banks got together and created dollar facilities for European banks. Thus we have had the move from mid-December to the present based on that liquidity.
We are back at the highs. We have had great runs and we are still having great runs thanks to the continued liquidity. As long as we have these good leaders moving, we can play them to the upside. Liquidity really drives the market.
Treasury Secretary Geithner says 'no quick fixes' to gasoline price issue. If we started at some point in the last 30, 20, or even 10 years we would not, again, be having this discussion.
There's gold (black gold?) in them thar' swamps! President takes credit for increased oil production, makes more claims about 'green' energy.
ECRI still calling for a mid-year recession.
Recession call made September 2011, forecasting a recession by mid-2012. You won't know you are in one until about 6 months later.
Definitive data show no recovery, indeed things are getting worse:
-Annualized GDP peaked in Q3 2010. By Q2 2011 it fell to 1.5%. The last read was 1.6%. Since the peak it has flat-lined at 1.5%.
-Personal Income is down.
-Overall sales are down (recall the inventory surge in Q4 2011 GDP number?)
-Industrial Production is at a 22 month low.
This pushed the Coincident Index to a 21 month low (see chart). In the last 50 years this has equaled a recession.
Why is sentiment up? Central Banks have printed trillions in currency. As I discussed last week, that is why we have had the economic lift we have had. Not stimulus, not real growth, just extra money.
Money Velocity: Trillions of dollars out there but velocity is at a record low in the US and near record lows in China and Europe. The money is not getting used but going into the financial markets just as it did in, for example, 1999 when the Fed pumped all that Y2K money into the economy and it was put in the stock market.
Personal disposable income: Negative for the past five months!!
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Economy Summary Video
Sentiment is starting to play in the market. The VIX was up slightly, but it closed very low at 17.3. There was a decline in bulls and a rise in bears. This is markedly different from the spike we saw in bulls and the decline in bears over the last two weeks. Bulls came in at 51.1% while the bears rose to 26.6%. The 51.4 is up from 54.8 the prior week. The bears were at 25.8. Not a huge spike, but even as the market moves higher we are getting some issues with respect to how well the market is behaving. So much so that the slow move, even though it is to the upside, is getting a lot of people nervous. Bears are rising and bulls are falling from pretty steep levels, and that could suggest an interim top. Perhaps not a top of the rally, but an interim top.
The put/call ratio bumped up to 1.09. That is only on the CBOE, not the combination of all the put/call exchanges that, for instance, Investor's Business Daily uses. On IBD, the put/call ratio looks like it was around 0.84, but we do not have the latest numbers on that yet. We will have to see when it comes out over the weekend, but it will most likely be up. That shows that people are nervous. Does this mean that a bunch of speculators are out buying puts? No, although we have been buying some as the positions present themselves. We bought more positions today on KLAC to the downside, but that is different versus the big money managers buying puts for protection for a decline. They are anticipating a pullback, and it seems like everyone is anticipating it. What happens when everyone anticipates something? It tends to do the opposite, at least for a while. Thus the uptrend continues for now.
VIX: 17.31; +0.51
VXN: 18.27; -0.14
VXO: 15.44; +0.16
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.09; +0.11
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 51.1% versus 54.8%. After a quick and big spike higher bulls are right back down near that 50% level where it held for several weeks. Hit the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. Now the indices are back at that level and so are the bulls. All the more reason to watch this action at the prior highs. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal but now dissipating. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 26.6% versus 25.8%. Back up a bit but still lower than the 28.7% three weeks back. As with bulls, a quick and big break upside, but now right back down. After spending weeks at 30%ish, bulls are faltering big time. Not at a bearish level but they are growing more confident even as the market hits the prior highs and is not blasting on through. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +6.77 points (+0.23%) to close at 2963.75
Volume: 1.602B (-7.18%)
Up Volume: 937.03M (-322.97M)
Down Volume: 679.7M (+187.71M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.21 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.44 to 1
New Highs: 110 (+12)
New Lows: 8 (-15)
Stats: +2.28 points (+0.17%) to close at 1365.74
NYSE Volume: 581M (-16.76%)
Up Volume: 1.77B (-880M)
Down Volume: 1.61B (+520M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.21 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.6 to 1
New Highs: 162 (+30)
New Lows: 3 (-1)
Stats: -1.74 points (-0.01%) to close at 12982.95
Volume DJ30: 89.4M shares Friday versus 120M shares Thursday.
Next week there is a lot of economic data. Monday brings Pending Home Sales. Tuesday is Durable Orders, Case/Shiller, and Consumer Confidence. Wednesday there is the second estimate of GDP and Chicago PMI. Very important. Thursday is Initial Claims, Person Income and Spending, and the ISM Index for February. All will be important, particularly in light of the ECRI reiteration of the call for a mid-2012 recession. That is just the situation we have.
Where do go from here? The indices are basically up at the old highs, unable to push further but not falling. As I said earlier, this is what they call "a stock picker's market," and we have seen some really great stocks moving to the upside. The indices are not rolling over at least not yet. Since they are not showing signs of that rounded top rollover, we are not going to bet against them overall right now. We are not that comfortable with a lot of new positions, but they keep showing themselves so we will keep taking them. We will let our positions run as long as they will. If any get in trouble, we will take some off of the table as we have been doing. We are not letting them get out of hand on us.
What does that mean for the coming week? A lot of data. We still have to keep that eye on the exit just in case things turn. Typically you get a rollover. Typically, as noted on Thursday, it takes awhile for this to work through the system. But the initial moves can be sharp as we saw in February. You get the climb and then, boom, a sharp selloff. But then you almost always get that recovery. If it does not make it, you are done and it will sell off. But this was a classic ABCD pattern. You have the strong move, the pull back, the bounce to a lower high. Then there is the sell off to a lower low, and then you have a rally right back up to the prior peak. That is what ABCD does and what you are looking for. That was the top. It tried again. Not bad, but that was false. It did not have the MACD with it. It was already in some trouble and it rolled over. We were worried at the time, and it proved to be correct.
We have not had the selloff yet. It may come up next week. You do not know. At some point there will be a punctuated selloff. Do we get out now and just wait for it? You can, but you might miss some action. You always get to that last point where you say, "Should I stay or should I go?" That is the question. But we are investors/traders and we have to take advantage of what the market gives. If we see moves like VFC, we want to take advantage of those because they can make us money even if the market is getting ready to top. We just have to be careful. It behooves us to watch the exit, watch our positions, and be pretty ruthless with taking stops as we have been. We are protecting our gain. We are not letting any of it go, and we are still making money to the upside. We will continue to do that. But we are fully cognizant of the fact that the indices, while they are breaking through the old highs, are not showing great strength. We watch for topping, we watch for any sharp pullbacks, but we can wait for a bounce to exit. That is typical these situations. You get a pullback and a bounce, a pullback and at bounce.
Even though we get selling, let us keep our heads. Protect your positions, but to not totally panic if we cannot get out of everything. Just wait for your time, and you typically get a better exit point. Then we will get better setups to the downside as well. Those stocks that broke down will rebound and fail, and we can get more downside entry points and make money to the downside as the upside folds up shop.
I hope that makes sense to you. Have a great weekend, and I will see you on another busy Monday. It is another week where we watch and see if this is the one where the move runs out of juice.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2963.75
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low
The 10 day EMA at 2937
The 20 day EMA at 2900
2888 is the May 2011 peak and post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
The 50 day EMA at 2804
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2668
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2572 is the November 2-11 gap down point
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2546 is the early September 2011 gap down point
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2469 is the November 2010 low
2441 is the November 2011 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 intraday low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1365.74
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1364 is the March 2007 low
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
The 20 day EMA at 1344
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1318.51 is the May low
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
The 50 day EMA at 1311
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
The 200 day SMA at 1258
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
Dow: Closed at 12,982.95
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
12,876 is the May high
The 20 day EMA at 12,836
12,754 is the July intraday peak
The 50 day EMA at 12,576
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The 200 day SMA at 11,999
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
February 22 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 02/18 (7:00): -4.5% actual versus -1.0% prior
- Existing Home Sales, January (10:00): 4.57M actual versus 4.63M expected, 4.38M prior (revised from 4.61M)
- Up 4.3% in January. Down 5% in December, revised lower. 5% - 4.3%= net negative.
- Inventories: 2.31M unites. Lowest March 2005.
February 23 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 02/18 (8:30): 351K actual versus 355K expected, 351K prior (revised from 348K)
- Continuing Claims, 02/11 (8:30): 3392K actual versus 3450K expected, 3444K prior (revised from 3426K)
- FHFA Housing Price I, December (10:00): 0.7% actual versus 0.7% prior (revised from 1.0%)
- Crude Inventories, 02/18 (11:00): 1.633M actual versus -0.171M prior
February 24 - Friday
- Michigan Sentiment - Final, February (9:55): 75.3 actual versus 73.0 expected, 72.5 prior
- New Home Sales, January (10:00): 321K actual versus 315K expected, 324K prior (revised from 307K). -0.9%. 5% revision upside in December.
February 27 - Monday
- Pending Home Sales, January (10:00): 1.0% expected, -3.5% prior
February 28 - Tuesday
- Durable Orders, January (8:30): -1.4% expected, 3.0% prior
- Durable Orders -ex Transports, January (8:30): 0.2% expected, 2.2% prior
- Case-Shiller 20-city, December (9:00): -3.6% expected, -3.7% prior
- Consumer Confidence, February (10:00): 62.5 expected, 61.1 prior
February 29 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 02/25 (7:00): -4.5% prior
- MBA Mortgage Purchases Index, 02/25 (7:00): -4.5% prior
- GDP - Second Estimate, Q4 (8:30): 2.8% expected, 2.8% prior
- GDP Deflator - Second, Q4 (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior
- Chicago PMI, February (9:45): 60.0 expected, 60.2 prior
- Crude Inventories, 02/25 (10:30): 1.633M prior
March 1 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 02/25 (8:30): 355K expected, 351K prior
- Continuing Claims, 02/18 (8:30): 3425K expected, 3392K prior
- Personal Income, January (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.5% prior
- Personal Spending, January (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.0% prior
- PCE Prices - Core, January (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
- ISM Index, February (10:00): 54.5 expected, 54.1 prior