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To: Return to Sender who wrote (55472)2/12/2012 12:01:42 PM
From: robert b furman
   of 65515
 
Hi RtS,

I just want to say how much I enjoy learning and listening to those webcasts.

Thanks for providing them.

Bob

I'm still expecting a weak anemic new high that will feature mostly small cap low priced stocks.

Then a substantial decline that will last for several weeks/months.

Bob

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (55473)2/12/2012 12:06:01 PM
From: Sam
2 Recommendations   of 65515
 
Monday Morning Outlook:
Inflated VIX Premium Could Deter Potential Buyers
Optimism is on the rise, even as stocks approach formidable resistance
by Todd Salamone 2/11/2012 9:55:06 AM
schaeffersresearch.com

Despite a few new multi-year highs for the major equity indexes, stocks ended last week modestly lower. Traders were spooked when euro-zone finance ministers demanded deeper spending cuts from Greece, which raised the prospect that the cash-strapped country could miss a looming deadline to secure bailout funds. With the drop-dead date set for this Wednesday, Feb. 15, it's entirely possible that more choppy trading is on the horizon.

In fact, Todd Salamone notes that a pullback is likely at this point, as the major equity indexes finished last week just below significant resistance levels. Against this backdrop, Todd examines whether the recent crop of bullish headlines is a potential contrarian indicator -- or just a natural reaction to the market's impressive rally. On the technical front, Rocky White takes a look at the cluster of "golden cross" formations to determine whether this indicator is truly a positive sign for stocks. Finally, we wrap up with a preview of the key economic and earnings reports for the week ahead, as well as a few sectors of note.

Notes from the Trading Desk: A Pullback Is Possible, but Panic Selling Is Unlikely
By Todd Salamone, Senior VP of Research


"The apparent increase in shorting activity among institutional players could result in a pause or consolidation, as equities were previously enjoying a bid from both short-covering and institutional buying. While evidence of institutional buying remains, a renewed interest in short selling could result in a coincident headwind that might lead to choppiness in the immediate days ahead." "Since the SPX's breakout above 1,260 in late December, it has been a straight march higher, with only one minor hiccup along the way: a pullback from the intraday highs of 1,330 to 1,300 from Jan. 26 to Jan. 30. The index comes into this week's trading at another potential resistance level, in the 1,340-1,350 area. As you can see on the chart below, the SPX was turned back from these levels on multiple occasions in 2011, suggesting this could be the next speed bump with which the index must contend."
- Monday Morning Outlook, February 4, 2012

Last week, we discussed the growing possibility of a pause in the impressive stock market advance, as some institutional players were showing signs of initiating short positions once again, following a period in which the equity market enjoyed a bid from both short-covering activity and underweight institutions deploying cash into the market. Since the big pop higher on Friday, Feb. 3, the market has done very little. A negative turn in the Greek debt saga last Friday, Feb. 10 sent stocks sharply lower, erasing a choppy grind higher throughout most of last week. The only encouraging technical note is that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - 134.36) never retreated beneath the previous Friday's post-gap lows, or its lows earlier in the week.



Hitting our radar last week was fresh evidence of optimism creeping into the market, right as the S&P 500 Index (SPX - 1,342.64) and the S&P 400 MidCap Index (MID - 964.49) approached their 2011 resistance levels in the 1,350 area and the 1,000 millennium mark, respectively. With key equity indexes lingering near resistance, these bullish headlines suggest we could be ripe for a pullback -- or, at the very least, continued choppiness in the days ahead. For example, headlines that caught our eye included:

In addition to the Feb. 9 headline suggesting a bullish technical backdrop, we saw technical research suggesting the CBOE Market Volatility Index's (VIX - 20.79) recent breakout has bullish implications. While we respect those publishing this research and think the studies are indeed valuable, our main takeaway is that the technical crowd seems to be taking a bullish stance -- the same crowd that was voicing concerns in late 2011, and roughly 100 SPX points ago.

Therefore, as contrarians, we are open to the fact that the market may be vulnerable to giving back some of its gains in the near term, as we see optimism coming in as the SPX and MID approach key resistance areas. A short-term pullback would be healthy, and would not jeopardize our overall bullish stance on equities for the intermediate and long term.

That said, it isn't necessarily a "slam dunk" that we retreat in the short term. After all, the positive sentiment isn't exactly misplaced, with the SPX up about 22% in a four-month period. In other words, one should put less weight on the contrarian implications of optimism in the context of strong price action, and more weight on the contrarian implications of optimism that occurs within the context of weak price action.

The good news for bulls is that in the event of a pullback, we would not expect a decline to be exacerbated by panic selling, since those that have recently accumulated stocks have purchased index or exchange-traded fund (ETF) puts, or VIX calls, as insurance against a correction. This was not the case around this time last year, when un-hedged buyers drove equities higher into mid-February, before negative European headlines surprised investors, resulting in a 7% correction in a month's period. Moreover, institutions at present do not have the exposure to equities that they did at the beginning of 2011, which suggests fresh cash on the sidelines that could mute a decline.

Finally, the "VIX Premium" indicator is again on our radar, which is a measure of the VIX relative to the SPX's actual, historical volatility. Given the steady demand for index and ETF put options that have accompanied the rally, put premiums have risen considerably relative to call premiums, driving the VIX to a substantial premium relative to SPX historical volatility.

For example, the VIX closed at 20.79 on Friday, or 146% above the SPX's current historical volatility of 8.44. As you can see on the chart below, the current VIX premium is relatively high. Therefore, a risk to bulls is that hedged players find put premiums too expensive, and thus sharply reduce their equity accumulation due to the expensive portfolio insurance. As you can see on the chart below, when the VIX is at a discount or is trading at a small premium to historical volatility -- implying cheap portfolio insurance -- major short-term buying opportunities have occurred during the past several months.



With portfolio insurance relatively expensive -- and thus unattractive for some hedge fund managers looking to put cash to work -- and the SPX and MID trading just below former resistance, the near-term price action may not be as rosy as the past several weeks. But pullbacks should continue to be viewed as buying opportunities, as considerable cash remains on the sidelines.


Indicator of the Week: Golden Crosses Everywhere
By Rocky White, Senior Quantitative Analyst


Foreword: Just over a week ago, on Feb. 3, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) experienced what market technicians call a "golden cross." That is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. This pattern is often viewed as bullish, as it can be used to determine whether we're in a bull or bear market trend.

Below is a chart showing the S&P 500 Index (SPX), along with different-colored markers showing when each of the three major equity indexes -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), SPX, and COMP -- had a golden cross. Note that each of those indexes have had a golden cross already this year: the Dow on Jan. 3, the SPX on Jan. 31, and the aforementioned COMP cross on Feb. 3.



Golden Cross on the Individual Indexes: So, is the golden cross truly a bullish sign for these indexes? Below are three tables showing the average returns for the indexes after they experience a golden cross, looking at time frames ranging from one month to one year. When calculating average returns, if multiple golden crosses happened within a month's time frame, I only considered the first signal. Each table also has the typical returns since 1975, for the sake of comparison.

Looking at the tables, you'll notice a golden cross on the Dow has actually been slightly bearish compared to typical returns. But for the SPX and COMP, the returns are bullish across all time frames.



Golden Cross on All Indexes: The span of 31 days -- from Jan. 3 to Feb. 3 -- in which all three indexes experienced a golden cross was a very short time frame for that to happen. It made me curious as to whether this might be more bullish than a typical signal. Using the SPX as our gauge, below are the dates that saw all three indexes complete a golden cross within two months of each other, or 60 days.



As you can see from the tables below, this is an extremely bullish indicator. The 13 times in which these three indexes formed a golden cross within two months of each other saw an average return of 10% over the next six months, and 15% over the next year. Typically, the SPX averages a gain of just 4.4% and 9.1%, respectively, over those time frames. Furthermore, six months after a "triple cross" occurrence, the SPX was positive all 13 times -- compared to just 69% positive over a typical six-month time frame. So, in the past, this rare event has had very bullish implications for the market.



This Week's Key Events: Earnings Flood Continues, from Agilent to Zillow
Schaeffer's Editorial Staff


Here is a brief list of some of the key events this week. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

Monday

  • There are no major economic reports on Monday. On the earnings front, we'll hear from Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX), AsiaInfo Linkage (ASIA), Health Management Associates (HMA), Limelight Networks (LLNW), Nordic American Tanker (NAT), Rackspace Hosting (RAX), Seattle Genetics (SGEN), and Skilled Healthcare Group (SKH).

Tuesday

  • Retail sales figures and business inventories are due out on Tuesday, along with the latest data on import and export prices. Avon Products (AVP), BorgWarner (BWA), Fossil (FOSL), Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT), MetLife (MET), Michael Kors (KORS), Peet's Coffee & Tea (PEET), United Therapeutics (UTHR), Weight Watchers International (WTW), Zipcar (ZIP), and Zynga (ZNGA) will share the earnings stage.

Wednesday

  • The Empire State manufacturing index hits the Street on Wednesday. Also on the day's docket are the NAHB's housing market index, industrial production and capacity utilization, weekly crude inventories, and the minutes from the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Quarterly earnings are expected from Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Agilent Technologies (A), Athenahealth (ATHN), CBS Corp. (CBS), Clearwire (CLWR), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), Comcast (CMCSA), Deere & Co. (DE), Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS), Goldcorp (GG), Marriott International (MAR), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), NetApp (NTAP), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla Motors (TSLA), and Zillow (Z).

Thursday

  • Thursday brings us housing starts, the producer price index (PPI), the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and the weekly report on jobless claims. The Fed also remains in focus, with Chairman Ben Bernanke slated to speak at an FDIC conference. Plenty of earnings are also on tap, including results from Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Applied Materials (AMAT), Aruba Networks (ARUN), Baidu (BIDU), Cloud Peak Energy (CLD), Demand Media (DMD), DirecTV (DTV), Duke Energy (DUK), General Motors (GM), Hyatt Hotels (H), J.M. Smucker (SJM), Nordstrom (JWN), Orbitz Worldwide (OWW), P.F. Chang's China Bistro (PFCB), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB), and SunPower (SPWR).

Friday

  • The economic calendar concludes with the consumer price index (CPI) and the Conference Board's index of leading indicators. The weekly slate of earnings wraps up with reports from Campbell Soup (CPB), EOG Resources (EOG), H.J. Heinz, Lincoln Electric (LECO), and Pilgrim's Pride (PPC).

And now a few sectors of note...

Dissecting The Sectors
Sector Utilities
Bullish

Outlook: The positive momentum in the utility sector has dimmed lately, as this traditionally defensive group has cooled its heels amid strength in the broader equities market. However, within the context of the longer-term uptrend in the PHLX Utility Sector Index (UTY), pullbacks like the one we're seeing now are not unusual, and we would view these dips as buying opportunities. In fact, UTY continues to find support at the $455 area -- a site of former resistance in mid-2011. In addition to the sector's solid long-term technical performance, utilities offer attractive capital appreciation potential, as well as appealing dividend yields (with a number of sector components going ex-div this month). As a result, we view utility stocks as a nice complement to a portfolio that consists of some other names deemed as more "risky." Meanwhile, despite the technical and fundamental appeal, there's still a healthy amount of skepticism surrounding these stocks. We typically don't see this group mentioned in articles that advocate high-yielding stocks, and many analysts remain on the sidelines. Within the utility sector, Duke Energy (DUK) and Consolidated Edison (ED) have turned in impressive uptrends over the past year, and both securities are lingering near annual-high territory. Nevertheless, there's not a single "buy" endorsement between the two. Going forward, a round of well-deserved upgrades could draw a fresh wave of buyers to the table, helping these stocks extend their positive price action.

Sector Leisure/Retail
Bullish

Outlook: The trend of improving jobs data has continued, with January payrolls surging impressively, and the unemployment rate pulling back to its lowest point in nearly three years. Additionally, consumer-level inflation has been relatively tame, pointing to an improving fundamental backdrop for the U.S. consumer -- and, by proxy, consumer discretionary stocks. On the charts, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) remains a technical outperformer. XRT notched another week of impressive gains, with the fund extending its lead above formerly staunch resistance at $54, and setting a new all-time high of $57.77. For those seeking a bullish play in the retail/leisure space, we recommend focusing on stocks in solid technical uptrends that are surrounded by skepticism. A few of our current favorites include retailers AutoZone (AZO), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), and Whole Foods Market (WFM), along with restaurateurs Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), and McDonald's (MCD). With skepticism still lingering toward these consumer-dependent stocks, contrarians can continue to capitalize on situations where sentiment has yet to catch up with the bullish technical performance.

Sector
Homebuilding
Bullish

Outlook: The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) pulled back last week, but maintained its footing above former resistance in the $19.50 area. From here, XHB still has room to rally to $23.25 -- which is half its all-time high, reached only three months after the fund was launched in 2006. Within the group, a few housing stocks are now running into key trendline resistance. For example, Meritage Homes (MTH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are challenging their 80-month moving averages, while Hovnanian (HOV), KB Home (KBH), and PulteGroup (PHM) are testing their 40-month trendlines. Although this moving-average resistance could cap the sector's collective momentum in the short term, we continue to like the negative sentiment backdrop. For example, builders were hit with yet another round of downgrades on Friday, with analysts warning that these stocks have gotten ahead of themselves. Going forward, these names could benefit from upgrades or short-covering activity as the technical and fundamental performance continues to surpass the Street's low expectations.

Sector
Energy
Bearish

Outlook: The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has underperformed, with the security lately encountering resistance at its 52-week breakeven level. Indeed, it doesn't appear that hedge funds are particularly interested in energy stocks, as the 50-day put/call volume ratio on XLE has plunged dramatically of late. Since hedged players typically purchase puts as they're accumulating equities, it would appear that these deep-pocketed investors don't see much value in the energy sector at the moment. Meanwhile, the inability of crude futures to establish a foothold above $100 per barrel is another reflection of generally weak energy demand. In fact, last Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) took a hatchet to its global demand forecast, and noted that the market could withstand the loss of oil from Iran. Despite these technical and fundamental issues, we've recently spotted some bullish coverage on energy stocks in the financial media -- making this a potential contrarian bearish play to watch during the near term.

Prepare for the investing week ahead. Every week, Bernie Schaeffer and his staff provide you with their insight about what has happened and, more importantly, what will happen in the market. We dig deep and show you what's happening behind the scenes, and tell you which indicators are predicting major market moves. If you enjoyed this week's edition of Monday Morning Outlook, sign up here for free weekly delivery straight to your inbox.




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To: robert b furman who wrote (55474)2/12/2012 1:36:09 PM
From: Return to Sender
2 Recommendations   of 65515
 
Bob, the recent rally is due for a pullback but nothing in the selling last week indicates that it is over. Volume was lower on the decline than it has been on the rise. Note that weekly chart on the S&P 500 shows that we are overbought and due a pullback but that the market can and does get even more overbought. It's possible that we could see this weekly chart of the S&P 500 exceed an RSI of 70 before we hit the next major top.




And it doubtless will be a major top because this rally has had poorer participation than the original rally off the March 2009 bottom. But that top may not come for a while yet. Volume should pick up dramatically at the actual market top.




JMHO, RtS

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (55472)2/12/2012 5:07:16 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom
   of 65515
 
Good analysis, I like their conclusion overall. The one I have noticed lately is how the small cap semis have been going up like "crazy". This is great when you are on board, but that action can't bo on forever.

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (55476)2/12/2012 8:44:05 PM
From: robert b furman
1 Recommendation   of 65515
 
Hi RtS,

I agree with your read.

Just trying to be ready to buy the dip.

I've lightened up into this rise and look forward to reloading into this corrective wave.

Just trading a short term scalp account.

Core positions be long term holds for that much more fun and much bigger volume top.

Thanks for your read - I agree and if we are both wrong - I greatly value your read/<smile>

Bob

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From: Eric2/13/2012 9:45:40 AM
1 Recommendation   of 65515
 
Polysilicon Prices Hit Record Low in 2011; Will Head Even Lower, Enabling $0.70/W PV in 2012

GTM Research publishes new report on polysilicon market, examining the epic price declines of 2011, the effect on the larger PV supply chain and the future of the market.

GTM Research publishes the Polysilicon 2012-2016: Supply, Demand & Implications for the Global PV Industry report, a comprehensive analysis on global polysilicon markets, including the technologies, business strategies and economic roadmap for the industry. To learn more, click here.

In 2011, the solar industry saw global oversupply drive PV prices to record lows, with crystalline silicon (c-Si) module prices falling from $1.80 per watt at the start of 2011 to $0.90 per watt by year’s end.

High purity silicon (polysilicon), the key feedstock for c-Si modules, played only a minor role in this price collapse, as over 80 percent of polysilicon is sold via long-term contracts, and the pricing on these contracts moved little for most of 2011. However, oversupply in the polysilicon market pushed the spot price of silicon down from $80 per kilogram in late March 2011 to under $30 per kilogram in December, representing more than a 60 percent drop. This substantially lower spot price gave silicon customers (i.e., wafer manufacturers) the leverage to renegotiate contract pricing downward, and this will result in much lower realized silicon average selling prices (ASPs) in 2012.

Lower silicon prices in 2012 will likely lead to even lower c-Si module prices. Without any other improvements, a $30-per-kilogram drop in silicon price would save module manufacturers approximately $0.20 per watt, which could bring module prices below $0.70 per watt.

For most of the past decade, polysilicon manufacturing was a near oligopoly, and growth in solar-end market demand allowed the incumbents to earn healthy and consistent EBITDA margins greater than 40 percent. In 2008, a shortage of polysilicon pushed prices to outrageously high levels (greater than $400 per kilogram in the spot market), and with those high prices came eye-popping 70 percent margins that enticed existing players as well as new entrants to embark on plant construction/expansion plans. These massive new plants and expansions made their presence felt in 2011, with a supply/demand imbalance pushing silicon prices to record-low levels, below even the cash costs of many manufacturers.

While spot pricing has collapsed and contract pricing is expected to follow, the cost of production has changed little, which implies substantial margin contraction in the coming years. With spot prices below $30 per kilogram, the scores of smaller, higher-cost producers face bleak options: continue to operate at a loss, hoping that pricing will recover before their cash runs out, or moth-ball the plant and live to fight another day. While oversupply will push many companies to shutter plants and lay off employees, other low-cost players will thrive and expand their share of the market.

“In 2011, in the polysilicon industry -- and the solar supply chain in general -- manufacturing outpaced end-use,” said GTM Research Senior Analyst, Brett Prior. “After a half-decade of silicon demand outstripping supply, the aggressive expansion plans finally overshot. This supply/demand imbalance will push producers to lower contract prices closer to the level of manufacturing costs at $20 per kilogram, and will force higher-cost manufacturers to exit the industry. While the solar market will continue to grow at a 10 percent to 20 percent pace in the coming years, reductions in the amount of silicon used in each module means that end demand for polysilicon will grow at a slower pace. The end result is that the current roster of over 170 polysilicon manufacturers and startups will likely be winnowed down to a dozen survivors by the end of decade.”

GTM Research expects to see established players such as GCL Solar, REC, OCI, Tokuyama, Hemlock and Wacker weather this extended period of pricing weakness, thanks to strong balance sheets, superior technology, and some of the lowest manufacturing costs due to economies of scale. These industry leaders will likely be able to continue charging premium prices, as reliability and certainty of supply will become more of an issue for their smaller competitors.

At over 230 pages, GTM Research's report includes production and price/margin forecasts to 2016, along with incisive perspectives on the industry's competitive landscape and survival strategies available to polysilicon producers.

Visit the report's web page today to learn more: http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/polysilicon-2012-2016.

greentechmedia.com

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From: Gottfried2/13/2012 6:22:04 PM
3 Recommendations   of 65515
 
bpNDX fell two to 79% [WYNN FSLR]

Jan31 Feb01 Feb02 Feb03 Feb06 Feb07 Feb08 Feb09 Feb10 Feb13
AAPL AAPL AAPL AAPL
AAPL AAPL ADBE ADBE ADBE ADBE
ADBE AAPL AAPL ADBE AAPL ADP ADP ADP ADP AAPL
ADP ADBE ADBE ADP ADBE ADSK ADSK ADSK ADSK ADBE
ADSK ADP ADP ADSK ADP AKAM AKAM AKAM AKAM ADP
AKAM ADSK ADSK AKAM ADSK ALTR ALTR ALTR ALTR ADSK
ALTR AKAM AKAM ALTR AKAM ALXN ALXN ALXN ALXN AKAM
ALXN ALTR ALTR ALXN ALTR AMGN AMAT AMAT AMAT ALTR
AMGN ALXN ALXN AMGN ALXN ATVI AMGN AMGN AMGN ALXN
AMZN AMGN AMGN APOL AMGN BIDU ATVI ATVI ATVI AMAT
APOL APOL APOL ATVI ATVI BIIB BIDU BIDU BIDU AMGN
ATVI ATVI ATVI BIDU BIDU CA BIIB BIIB BIIB ATVI
BIDU BIDU BIDU BIIB BIIB CELG BMC BMC BMC BIDU
BIIB BIIB BIIB CA CA CERN CA CA CA BIIB
CA CA CA CELG CELG CHKP CELG CELG CELG BMC
CELG CELG CELG CERN CERN CMCSA CERN CERN CERN CA
CERN CERN CERN CHKP CHKP COST CHKP CHKP CHKP CELG
CHKP CHKP CHKP CMCSA CMCSA CSCO CMCSA CMCSA CMCSA CERN
CHRW CMCSA CMCSA COST COST CTRP CSCO CSCO CSCO CHKP
CMCSA CSCO CSCO CSCO CSCO CTSH CTRP CTRP CTRP CMCSA
CSCO CTRP CTRP CTRP CTRP CTXS CTSH CTSH CTSH CSCO
CTRP CTSH CTSH CTSH CTSH DELL CTXS CTXS CTXS CTRP
CTSH DELL DELL DELL DELL DLTR DELL DELL DELL CTSH
DELL DLTR DLTR DLTR DLTR EBAY DLTR DLTR DLTR CTXS
DLTR EBAY EBAY EBAY EBAY ESRX EBAY EBAY EBAY DELL
EBAY ESRX ESRX ESRX ESRX EXPD ESRX ESRX ESRX DLTR
ESRX EXPD EXPD EXPD EXPD EXPE EXPD EXPD EXPD EBAY
EXPD EXPE EXPE EXPE EXPE FAST EXPE EXPE EXPE ESRX
EXPE FAST FAST FAST FAST FFIV FAST FAST FAST EXPD
FAST FFIV FFIV FFIV FFIV FISV FFIV FFIV FFIV EXPE
FFIV FISV FISV FISV FISV FLEX FISV FISV FISV FAST
FISV FLEX FLEX FLEX FLEX FOSL FLEX FLEX FLEX FFIV
FLEX FOSL FOSL FOSL FOSL FSLR FOSL FOSL FOSL FISV
FOSL FSLR FSLR FSLR FSLR GILD FSLR FSLR FSLR FLEX
FSLR GILD GILD GILD GILD GMCR GILD GILD GILD FOSL
GILD GMCR GMCR GMCR GMCR GOLD GMCR GMCR GMCR GILD
GMCR GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GRMN GOLD GOLD GOLD GMCR
GOLD GRMN GRMN GRMN GRMN HSIC GRMN GRMN GRMN GOLD
GRMN HSIC HSIC HSIC HSIC INFY HSIC HSIC HSIC GRMN
HSIC INFY INFY INFY INFY INTC INFY INFY INFY HSIC
INFY INTC INTC INTC INTC INTU INTC INTC INTC INFY
INTC INTU INTU INTU INTU ISRG INTU INTU INTU INTC
INTU ISRG ISRG ISRG ISRG KLAC ISRG ISRG ISRG INTU
ISRG KLAC KLAC KLAC KLAC LIFE KLAC KLAC KLAC ISRG
KLAC LIFE LIFE LIFE LIFE LINTA LIFE LIFE LIFE KLAC
LIFE LINTA LINTA LINTA LINTA LLTC LINTA LINTA LINTA LIFE
LINTA LLTC LLTC LLTC LLTC LRCX LLTC LLTC LLTC LINTA
LLTC LRCX LRCX LRCX LRCX MAT LRCX LRCX LRCX LLTC
LRCX MAT MAT MAT MAT MCHP MAT MAT MAT LRCX
MAT MCHP MCHP MCHP MCHP MNST MCHP MCHP MCHP MAT
MCHP MNST MNST MNST MNST MRVL MNST MNST MNST MCHP
MNST MRVL MRVL MRVL MRVL MSFT MRVL MRVL MRVL MNST
MRVL MSFT MSFT MSFT MSFT MU MSFT MSFT MSFT MRVL
MSFT MU MU MU MU MYL MU MU MU MSFT
MU MYL MYL MYL MYL NFLX MYL MYL MYL MU
MYL NFLX NFLX NFLX NFLX NTAP NFLX NFLX NFLX MYL
NFLX NTAP NTAP NTAP NTAP NUAN NTAP NTAP NTAP NFLX
NUAN NUAN NUAN NUAN NUAN NVDA NUAN NUAN NUAN NTAP
NVDA NVDA NVDA NVDA NVDA NWSA NVDA NVDA NVDA NUAN
NWSA NWSA NWSA NWSA NWSA ORLY NWSA NWSA NWSA NVDA
ORLY ORLY ORLY ORLY ORLY PAYX ORLY ORLY ORLY NWSA
PAYX PAYX PAYX PAYX PAYX PCAR PAYX PAYX PAYX ORLY
PCAR PCAR PCAR PCAR PCAR PCLN PCAR PCAR PCAR PAYX
PCLN PCLN PCLN PCLN PCLN PRGO PCLN PCLN PCLN PCAR
QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM PCLN
ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST QCOM
SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX ROST
SHLD SHLD SHLD SHLD SHLD SHLD SHLD SHLD SHLD SBUX
SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SHLD
SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SIAL
SRCL SRCL SRCL SRCL SRCL SRCL SRCL SRCL SRCL SPLS
STX STX STX STX STX STX STX STX STX SRCL
TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA STX
VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD TEVA
VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VOD
WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX VRSN
WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WCRX
WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WFM
XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX
XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY
YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO

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To: Gottfried who wrote (55480)2/13/2012 6:24:47 PM
From: Gottfried
4 Recommendations   of 65515
 
10 new 52 week NDX highs
		
02/13/2012
Open High Low Close Volume
AAPL 499.53 503.83 497.09 502.6 18381938
ALXN 83.95 84.83 83.54 84.35 1200051
CA 26.86 26.89 26.68 26.77 2242268
CMCSA 27.39 27.52 27.27 27.41 7739804
DLTR 86.99 87.76 86.72 87.72 687433
EXPE 33.8 34.489 33.695 34.41 3426118
FAST 48.95 50.63 48.86 50.58 3185590
ISRG 492.58 506.009 492.1 503.07 476336
MAT 32.27 32.59 32.27 32.4 7734407
PCLN 549.43 573.13 547.1 571.15 1375425

NO new 52 week NDX low

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To: Gottfried who wrote (55481)2/13/2012 11:01:56 PM
From: Return to Sender
1 Recommendation   of 65515
 
From Briefing.com: 4:24PM Ultra Clean Holdings pops ~16% to $9.03 on thin volume after hours following earnings/guidance results ( see 16:22 post) (UCTT) 7.80 +0.04 :

4:22PM Ultra Clean Holdings beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (UCTT) 7.80 +0.04 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.06 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.03; revenues fell 27.8% year/year to $86.9 mln vs the $85.3 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.15-0.18 vs. $0.10 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q1 revs of $105-110 mln vs. $88.98 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

4:20 pm : Stocks started the day higher on encouraging news about agreement from Greece on proposed austerity measures. The early bid waned off the open, but buyers stepped back in around mid-morning and stocks closed right around the levels where they opened, with the S&P 500 adding 0.7%.

After weeks of haggling over austerity plan details, many market participants were concerned that Greece's parliament would drag its feet in passing new measures, but, over the weekend, the country approved the plan, bringing it closer to securing additional bailout funds. That said, eurozone officials still have to approve Greece's plan. There are also challenges associated with implementing any new measures.

The news inspired buying abroad, resulting in varied gains for the world's major equity averages. Domestic averages have followed suit, but they have wavered since the start of the session. Nonetheless, improved sentiment in the wake of the Greece headline has helped take the Dow Jones Global Index up to a 0.7% gain.

Industrial stocks were the strongest today, with the sector gaining 1.2%. Financials, which are considered to be most sensitive to the European crisis, were the second strongest sector, finishing the day +0.9%.

Tech stocks, which make up the largest sector by market weight, were a laggard, gaining 0.6% on the day.

Despite the relatively unimpressive performance of tech stocks, the tech-rich Nasdaq actually maintained a narrow lead over its counterparts today. Apple (AAPL 502.60, +9.18) was a leader in the Nasdaq as it made a push past the psychologically significant $500 level earlier.

Late in the session, a technical glitch halted crude oil trading on the CME. After the halt, crude resumed trading higher and is now around $100.57. Crude ended 1.8% higher at $100.40/barrel in floor trading. Feb natural gas remained in the red all session. The energy component attempted to erase all of its losses in early morning activity, but couldn't hold and closed 2% lower at $2.43/MMBtu.

There haven't been any other stories of great importance today -- earnings reports are sparse and without broad consequence and there hasn't been a single economic announcement. That has likely further depressed participation today, resulting in trading volume that was well below average.DJ30 +72.81 NASDAQ +27.51 SP500 +9.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1864/1.57 bln/692 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2370/682.6 mln/719

10:13AM Marvell and VeriSilicon Holdings announce a licensing agreement for ZSP G3 cores (MRVL) 15.84 -0.21 : The agreement includes the Dual-MAC ZSP800M and ZSP880M synthesizable DSP cores which are area and power optimized for efficient mobile application and digital entertainment platform solutions.

Trina Solar (TSL) announced that its multicrystalline modules manufactured with European-sourced silicon wafers have been certified by the independent Italian institute ICIM and fulfill GSE requirements for a 10% feed-in tariff premium in Italy.

7:34AM NXP Semi announced that its subsidiary together with NXP Funding is intending to redeem all of its outstanding Euro-denominated 8 5/8% Senior Notes due October 2015 (NXPI) 21.62 : Co announced that its subsidiary, NXP B.V., together with NXP Funding is intending to redeem all of its outstanding Euro-denominated 8 5/8% Senior Notes due October 2015, and all outstanding U.S. dollar-denominated 9 1/2% Senior Notes due October 2015, in the total amount of ~$775 mln. These proposed redemptions would be financed by a $300 mln draw-down under the existing Revolving Credit Facility, as well as by new secured loans up to $475 mln, subject to their completion.

7:06AM KVH Industries reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY12 revs below consensus (KVHI) 9.90 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.11 per share, in-line with the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate consensus of $0.11; revenues rose 18.1% year/year to $31.9 mln vs the $31.91 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of ($0.09)-($0.03) vs. $0.05 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q1 revs of $25.5-28.5 mln vs. $28.74 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Co issues downside guidance for FY12, sees FY12 revs of +10-15% YoY, calc'ing to $123.7-129.4 mln vs. $132.56 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

MagnaChip Semiconductor (MX) announced that its foundry services has begun ramping its 0.35um mixed-signal process for Micro Electro Mechanical Systems Accelerometer applications.

Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC) announced that it has shipped more than 20 mln programmable mixed signal devices.

NVIDIA (NVDA $16.14 +0.24) was upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at FBR Capital and the firm put a target of $20 on the stock. The Firm notes their upgrade is a short-term tactical upgrade for a move toward $20, with integrated GPU attach rate risks and lower PC BOM cost risks still major challenges for co in coming quarters. They generally believe shares are at the bottom of their trading range near $12 and overbought above $20, with valuation now reasonably attractive at 13.5x P/E.

10:10 am S&P Tech Sector Trading Higher, About In-line With The S&P 500
The tech sector is trading higher today, along with gains in the broader market. Semiconductors are showing relative weakness in line with the tech space with the Philly Semi Index trading only 0.1% higher. AMD (+3.1%) is a notable leader in the chip index, while CREE (-2.6%) is a laggard. Among other major indices, the SPY is trading 0.6% higher, while the NASDAQ and the QQQ are trading 0.8% higher on the session. Among tech bellwethers, AAPL (+1.4%) is showing strength, while TXN (-0.7%) are under a little pressure.

In news, TXCC (+3.9%) announced at-the-market issuance program to sell up to $10 mln in stock. Among rumors, we are hearing APKT (+3.1%) takeover chatter making the rounds.

Among notable analyst upgrades this morning, NVDA (+0.9%) was upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital and AMD (+3.1%) was upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein. Among downgrades, MRVL (-1.6%) and BRCM (-1.0%) were downgraded to Hold at The Benchmark Company, NTAP (-1.4%) was downgraded to Hold at ThinkEquity and MWW (-3.2%) was downgraded to Sell at Citigroup.

FIS (+1.2%) is the notable name in tech scheduled to report results today after the close.

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From: Eric2/14/2012 2:04:01 PM
2 Recommendations   of 65515
 
From CS on the 13th:

Solar Snippet
COMMENT
Germany update & thoughts post the solar
rally

Thoughts post the rally. Last week, new proposals emerged on the direction of German policy. We have noted the positives from long-term elasticity of solar demand and the near-term improvement in the second derivative for pricing – these factors have driven a sharp YTD appreciation in solar stocks. Investors are now moving from reacting to reported fundamental pricing trends on the ground, to understanding the sustainability of the factors driving the improvement in 1Q12. A significant part of 1Q12 demand strength is being driven by pull-in demand in both Germany and US ahead of subsidy cuts in April. While longer term positives such as elasticity and China demand from 2Q12 should put a floor above the December trough levels for stocks, there is risk if reported poly pricing starts to weaken. Our checks suggest there is risk that shipments in the US could decline over 50% q/q in 2Q12. As such, the next 2-3 weeks will be critical for poly prices. FSLR and poly names are trading well above fair value, while TSL/JKS offer better risk/reward relative to tangible book and replacement value metrics.

Germany update.

Last week on Friday Bloomberg reported, quoting Berliner Zeitung, that Germany is considering capping the solar subsidies for installations. The proposals are apparently “directly from the Environmental Ministry”, per PV Magazine. One option proposes to cap the subsidies to 800- 900kWh/kW of installation; an alternate option proposes to cap incentives at 80% of the energy produced. In separate news, also from Bloomberg, three German states of Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia, which share the view of Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen, plan to block the law which may lead to rapid decline in subsidies. The law must pass through the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament, where the states are represented.

Implications of proposal #1.

Solar insolation (radiation) in Germany can vary from ~900kWh/kW to ~1100kWh/kW. The first proposal, if implemented, would effectively penalize installations in higher solar irradiation regions (Southern
Germany) by ~10-20%. As such, if no other additional caps or monthly cuts are implemented, this proposal would not be terrible, but would particularly penalize FSLR – recall that FSLR has thin film based panels which provide ~5-10% more kWh/kW yield. If the subsidies are capped to a specific kWh/kW level, this could impact economics for FSLR more than for other c-Si providers.

Implications of proposal #2.

The second option would have a similar effect as an additional 20% FiT cut, though arguably the remaining 20% of energy can be sold by the generators. Our FiT/IRR calculations for Germany suggests that at current panel prices, the industry can tolerate an additional 20% FiT cut and still implement systems, though the overall levels may be impacted more if panel prices/installation costs or interest rates rise.

What caused the solar stock rally?

Last week, we noted that price elasticity in solar drove higher than expected demand in 2011. We also have noted that the “second derivative” for solar has improved – pricing is not declining as much as expected. This inflection in fundamentals has caused significant short covering in solar, leading to ~30% for FSLR/SPWR, ~30-40% for YGE/TSL and ~90% for JKS YTD appreciation in solar stocks. Post this appreciation, fundamental investors are trying to understand what is driving this improvement in fundamentals, and whether the improvement warrants continued appreciation in solar stocks. Germany/US demand is driving fundamentals. Some of our industry checks suggest that the shipments of panels into Germany continued at very high levels even into the month of January. Our industry checks also suggest that for Tier 1 c-Si panel makers, demand from the US has tripled from 3Q11 to 1Q12. However, both these effects are due to a pull-in of demand ahead of the new Germany FiT cuts and expiration of US cash grants. At this point, US demand in 2Q12 is looking at the same level as it did in 3Q11 – which implies a decline of over 65% q/q is possible in 2Q12 for US panel shipments. If we see such large declines starting early April, factory loadings may start to slow in China from early March, which would suggest incremental purchasing of upstream silicon may start to slow some point in the next 2-3 weeks.

What do we do now?

An inflection in upstream silicon prices would be critically important to monitor, especially for silicon names given the sharp short covering based rally in recent weeks. As such, this rally will likely be vulnerable to lower reported silicon prices. But, China demand is also expected to pick up sharply from 2Q12, plus normal seasonality should help in 2Q/3Q as well, which could help put some floor to stocks. FLSR is trading well above our price target; but Chinese panel companies like TSL, YGE, JKS and STP are trading at significant discounts to tangible book value. Using EV/replacement as the low end of valuation threshold and P/tBV as the high end, TSL and JKS offer better risk/reward than other panel names in our coverage.

Companies Mentioned (Price as of 13 Feb 12)
First Solar (FSLR, $43.90, NEUTRAL [V], TP $30.00)
Jinko Solar (JKS, $9.38, NEUTRAL [V], TP $7.50)
SunPower Corp. (SPWR, $8.03, NEUTRAL [V], TP $9.00)
Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (STP.N, $4.03, UNDERPERFORM [V], TP $2.50)
Trina Solar Ltd (TSL.N, $10.15, NEUTRAL [V], TP $6.00)
Yingli Green Energy Holding (YGE.N, $5.34, NEUTRAL [V], TP $4.00)

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