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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (55471)2/12/2012 11:03:24 AM
From: Return to Sender
   of 65138
 
Leavitt Brothers - Time to be Defensive:

leavittbrothers.com 

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To: robert b furman who wrote (55470)2/12/2012 11:11:38 AM
From: Return to Sender
2 Recommendations   of 65138
 
InvestmentHouse Weekend Market Summary


investmenthouse.com 


A modest pullback as the indices struggle with the prior highs.

A Greek bondholder deal is not a Greek austerity deal. Investors were concerned because there were riots in the streets, and the head of one of the three political parties said he would not vote for the current austerity package because it was designed to humiliate the Greeks. They did not want to be under the boot of the Germans. That sums up the feeling on the continent about those haves and the have-nots. Those who have already gone through their austerity and have relative prosperity versus those who just wanted to do their own thing.

I am reminded of the cartoon about the grasshopper and the ant. The ant worked so hard during the days of summer to put away food while the grasshopper sat back, strummed his guitar, and sang a song about how working could wait. Come winter, the ant had a nice, warm home full of food, and the grasshopper was starving to death. You know the story. I do not think the Greeks would appreciate that analogy, but it is somewhat similar to how things are going. They have to bite the bullet and, as I said the other night, we will have to do the same at some point. They do not want to do it, and that is understandable. As I mentioned last night, we did end up seeing pictures with the haze of not only tear gas but of burning autos dimming the natural beauty of Greece. It is a shame for such a beautiful place.

That news roughed up the futures, and they were starting to the downside. They tried to recover a bit into the open and could not make much of a move. They were heading in the right direction until things started. They did recover, and then it was back and forth the entire day, never gaining any kind of traction. It looked like things were turning up at the opening bell, but the Michigan Sentiment numbers brought the market right back down. They were not horrible, but they did miss expectations. It did not do much from there, although it did manage something of a late rally that cut the losses. But that is all it did.

SP500, -0.69%; NASDAQ, -0.8%; Dow, -0.69%; SP600, -1.42%; SOX, -2%; NASDAQ 100, -0.65%.

AAPL was not able to keep the NASDAQ 100 going, although AAPL was up pretty decently early in the session before things lost their mojo. Then it fell into that backsliding mode.

OTHER MARKETS

When there is worry about Europe and Greece, we start having improvement.

Dollar. 1.3171 versus 1.3290 euro. The dollar managed to bounce, but it was down on the week. Money continued to flow back to Europe from the U.S. on the sign that things were a bit better. That is, of course, taking Friday out of the equation. There is just something about people rioting in the streets, tear gas, and fires that quell the feeling that everything is just fine.

Bonds. 1.96% versus 2.04% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds rebounded with a bounce back up toward the 50 day EMA. Back in the range but at the bottom of the range nonetheless. Money is being moved back out for the same reason it is moving out of the dollar. They are better on the day, but overall they are still trending down as money flows back to Europe.

Gold. 1,725.30, -15.90. Gold was up and down, but it still finished lower. It did rebound after hours and improve itself. It still looks like it will try to make a bounce. It held the 20 day EMA on the low, and it bounced nicely off that level.

Oil. 98.68, -1.23. Even though we imported incredible amounts of oil at an all-time high in 2011, it was down on the day. It also tested lower, but it rebounded and bounced up higher in its range this week.

Oil is still range bound, as are bonds, the dollar, and gold. They are all trading in a range, and they are all trading as you would expect as the news comes out day to day. But none of them are breaking out or breaking down. That tells us that things are not necessarily decided in Europe. Our stock market has rallied in anticipation of maybe a resolution, but then bonds have sold back, raising yields. But there have been no major breakthroughs that would suggest anything serious has changed. We head into another week with the markets banging up against those old highs yet again. And bonds, the dollar, gold, and oil are all roughly moving around in their ranges as well. It is as if they are all waiting for the definitive moment to take place or something new to come out.

With the markets where they are now, on Friday we saw that they can be rattled a bit. No doubt the market is a bit overbought and subject to upset when the news does not go its way. Greece did the market no favors, one that has its indices trying to break through the prior highs. There were some nominal breaks over the past week, but nothing that was able to extend and rally to the upside. The selling was pretty innocuous. It was not heavy across the board. Volume was lower. It was not anything that will scare investors too much ...yet. That is the way it always starts, however. It is something little. It reminds me of the Kurt Russell movie 'Big Trouble in Little China.' They were questioning Egg Shen and he says, "It was just a little thing. But that is how it always happens." We had just a little move on Friday, but that does not mean there will not be more selling. Sometimes the selling comes in quietly like a thief in the night. Other times it is like shock and awe when it starts. We have had a good run to the upside. Buyers still want to buy in, and we may just have a nice backslide. That remains to be seen, and this coming week will answer more of those questions.

Maybe it is a bit down the road, but a test would not hurt at all. As you know, we were taking positions seriously. If they showed signs of trouble, we were getting out of them. We want to keep the gain we have. One of the problems with the market is it has a lot of potential inflation because of all of the money printing. You want to make as much money as you can to keep ahead of inflation. You want to buy some commodities and buy some gold, and that is what we have been doing. You kind of take care of things from both ends. As Ronald Reagan said, one of the most patriotic things you can do is be a person for free enterprise, start your own business, make as much money as you can, and then give as little of it as you can to the government. When you are in an inflationary environment, that is all the more important. You have to hang onto all those extra bucks because they will be worth less. Not worthless, but worth less.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

The internals were not that impressive.

Volume. NASDAQ -18%, 1.75B; NYSE -1.7%, 697M. Volume was down, and it was already quite low even before that drop. Volume overall has fallen considerably, so overall volume will not shock you if it is lower or higher.

Breadth. NASDAQ -2.9:1; NYSE -3.1. Decliners led thanks to the small caps suffering. Pretty obviously slanted toward the downside, but nothing grotesquely out of the norm or compared to what we have seen over the past year.

THE CHARTS

There was no big action. Friday was rather innocuous. It is a small start that may lead to something, but it was not showing it on Friday.

SP500. SP500 is back below the February peak, but it is holding the 10 day EMA. It is still in the steady rise. Looking at this, you might say this is no issue. If you ignore all of the tops, you may think that is no big deal at all. But that is not the case. We know they are there, but thus far the market has not broken. You just have to be concerned in the event that things get worse. What looks to be nothing can (as easily as not) develop into something, particularly when you are at prior highs.

DJ30. The Dow shows this. It broke through, but it just could not make it stick. The fell to the 10 day EMA as well, and now it is trading around in a range. It is still trying to hold, but it could easily come back and test the 50 day EMA that is marked roughly with the late-October peak. We have a place that is perfectly logical for the market to pull back and then turn back to the upside. That is much more logical than continuing on as it is without a pullback. Then again, the market does not always act according to our logic.

NASDAQ. The NASDAQ is very similar. It is holding its breakout, sitting with a doji on the 10 day EMA. A little island reversal. On Wednesday to Thursday there is a gap, and on Thursday to Friday a gap to the downside. Maybe that will lead to more selling, but it is nothing heavy duty. The bigger ones were back a week ago with that gap to the upside. If it gaps down from there, we have a pullback to the 50 day EMA. It is also roughly coincident with the late-October peak.

SP600. The small caps are a bit more interesting. The SP600 does not show a lot. Up and down, sliding just below the 10 day EMA. But if you look at the ETF that is traded, it gapped in something of an island reversal that one of the subscribers pointed out today. It gapped upside last week, it gapped downside on Friday. Could be a selloff. But how deep? You just look for a pullback down to that October high. At this point there is nothing to suggest otherwise.

SOX. The SOX was beaten up a bit. The chips took it on the chin. They have been one of the leaders, and they were roughed up somewhat. The question is whether they are going to lead to the downside. Some patterns got suddenly quite rocky. Not terrible, but not as comfortable as they were. It was like going over a big pothole in the road. The question is whether it smoothes back out or if we have more potholes that degrade and take it down to these October and early-November highs.

The markets are bumping up against those highs. There were some nominal breaks that everyone was excited about, but they are not able to push through. There is no follow-through, and that is something I always talk about. That is the key to anything whether it is a breakout of a stock or a selloff off a stock that breaks below support but then comes back and does not sell off. No follow through. The buyers cannot push the indices up through that resistance and make it stick or put mileage between it and those key points. If there is no follow-through, then the other side (whether you are upside or downside) tends to come back in. They push back and have some backsliding. That leaves us the possibly that we could have a bit of trouble, but that is what we have been looking for.

LEADERSHIP

Semiconductors. The chips are struggling a bit. Nothing major, but a bit of a struggle. ALTR is coming back toward the 200 day EMA. TXN is gapping downside, having a hard time getting through that early-January high. MRVL is one we have been watching and playing. It has been struggling. There is a little bit of hitch in the get-along, but that is okay. We are just being careful. We can get better setups out of these with a pullback. Why ride through something that is not looking that great in hopes that it gets better? Instead we can just let it come back and give us a test that sets it up a lot better. That is the theme I have been hounding you about for the past week. If you have a little trouble, do not mess around; just take it off the table and then maybe we will come back and later get a better buy on it.

Technology. It was a great week for AAPL. It was up 0.25 on Friday. It was showing a doji, but that was after a really nice run. We took some excellent gain off the table on the move. GOOG has had a good move to the upside. There are some interesting features. It has filled part of gap, and now it is up at a resistance point. If we draw another resistance line, it is bumping up against this range of resistance. We could see a downside move that would aid the market in testing. Is that not putting a positive spin on it?

Miscellaneous. Even though there are some trouble areas and potential problems, most every other area looks great from what we can tell. How do you tell? You look at the charts. I want to go through a group of stocks that we have that look good. TEX is performing very well. ARAY was off on the day, but it has had a great run. It was not showing that it is wearing out. TREX did not have a spectacular move, but it was down with a doji to the 10 day EMA. Plenty of positives with stocks still showing good action, good moves, and holding the market to the upside. That does not mean that these will continue to do so. Things start off quietly sometimes and then get worse. That is why we do not want to let positions get out of hand and start to hurt us.

THE ECONOMY

TO VIEW THE ECONOMIC SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Economy Summary Video

Michigan Sentiment lower but in keeping with the recovering trend.

A wider trade gap is a good thing.

THE MARKET

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX. Volatility did bounce. It rose significantly on the day. It was up +11.5%, but it tapped the 50 day EMA and backed off. That means the market is having a rough patch and reacting as you would think when it sold. It is still very low, but volatility can remain low for long periods of time. This will be the key move where it bumped that 50 day EMA because there are other peaks along the way from back in the summer and in late 2010. That will be a level up around 22 that tries to keep it in check.

VIX: 20.79; +2.16
VXN: 20.94; +2.04
VXO: 18.76; +1.86

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.1; +0.23

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 52.1% versus 48.9%. After a dip from 50.0% bulls are picking up steam. At the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. Now the indices are back at that level and so are the bulls. All the more reason to watch this action at the prior highs. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal but now dissipating. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 28.7% versus 29.8%. Still around the 30% level but starting to back off, matching the same level as three weeks back. A bit less fearful as the indices probe the prior highs. Not at a bearish level but they are growing more confident even as the market hits the prior highs and is not blasting on through. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.

NASDAQ

Stats: -23.35 points (-0.8%) to close at 2903.88
Volume: 1.759B (-17.57%)

Up Volume: 405.95M (-654.05M)
Down Volume: 1.37B (+418.54M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.87 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.23 to 1

New Highs: 43 (-67)
New Lows: 14 (+4)

SP500/NYSE

Stats: -9.31 points (-0.69%) to close at 1342.64
NYSE Volume: 697M (-1.69%)

Up Volume: 819.86M (-1.45B)
Down Volume: 3B (+1.25B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 3.08 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.01 to 1

New Highs: 88 (-106)
New Lows: 11 (+4)

DJ30

Stats: -89.23 points (-0.69%) to close at 12801.23
Volume DJ30: 123M shares Friday versus 157M shares Thursday.

MONDAY

We are going into next week a bit cautiously, but we are looking for a test. Maybe it will hold and continue higher, but we are looking for a test that we can make plays off of. Plenty of data comes out next week. Tuesday we have Retail Sales back out. We have Business Inventories, and it will be important to see if they are rising. Empire Manufacturing is on Wednesday. On Thursday we have the Initial Claims, Philly Fed, Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the PPI. Friday we have the Leading Economic Indicators. Plenty to move the market, not to mention Greece and what will happen there over the weekend.

Considering all of that, we have to figure out what we want to do for the coming week. Frankly, I would love one more push to the upside and to take more gain off of the table. But you cannot count on that. The Friday action was not bad, but it may not get better. If we get a push downside, we need to be ready to continue what we are doing. Take gain off of the table, close positions, and do not let them hurt us. We have made a lot of great money, and we do not want to lose any of it. You will lose a little bit because, as you ride up, obviously you have positions that are not padded with a nice gain on them. You have to be quick. If you see they are in trouble, you take them off. If it gaps lower, then so be it. That is the way it goes.

It does not look like it will do that, but we are not going to sit around and wait for things to get down to the 50 day EMA without doing anything. We can buy back in at that point. I have a concern that this might be more than just a pullback. So many are positive that this is a great market to buy and that all we need is a little test and everything will be fine. But tests usually get to the point of discomfort. They want to scare you out as you see your profits evaporating. If you are back in the market down from October of 2011 and it comes right down here, then you will not feel much discomfort. But not everyone gets in right at the bottom, and you buy along the way. We do not want to get uncomfortable with positions. That is why we were taking them off of the table without much hesitation on Friday. We have been ruthless on them all week long, taking gains as well as taking trailing stop losses.

Just keep cool. There are still a lot of good patterns out there. We will look at some to the upside and some to the downside. There are some great patterns both ways, and we will get opportunity out of those. We have some that are still down at the bottom and ready to move up. If the market wants to go higher, if it gets some good news over the week, we could do that. We could get another week or two of run to the upside.

The market will go further than you think it should. Even now I think it should pull back. This is something that I have been thinking about all along. Remember, if it got to this target, I did not think it would go higher. But it could. That is just my thought; it is not the market's final word. I can kind of hear it walking up behind me and saying it might fall here. I am just listening and I am ready. I have a little adrenaline going (or maybe that is just coffee).

The point is we have to be ready. We need to know what we have, which is a good chunk of positions that are still in good shape. We have already banked a bunch of gain on them. If we get in any trouble, we want to take those off, too, and just wait for good opportunity. There are some of them that we can let ride. They are in great shape and we will not sell them out, like some old positions in AAPL. We might sell some calls on that, but we are not going to dump those shares because we have a little pullback in the market.

Again, my thesis is that this is just a pullback in the market and not a major decline. I may be proved wrong. If we get a pullback to the 50 day EMA or the late-October peak and it holds and we see a bunch of patterns setting up, we will be ready to buy again. We may be ready to buy on the way down if some early leaders find their purchase before the rest of the market and start move up. That is fine. We will just take them on a stock-by-stock basis. Overall I feel there could be a pullback, but we cannot be sure until the market lets us know. We have just been positioning ourselves to be ready for it, and we will continue to do so.

I will see you on Monday. We have a big week ahead, and we will preserve some money and make some money.

Have a great weekend!

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2903.88
Resistance:
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low

Support:
2888 is the May 2011 peak and post-bear market high
The 10 day EMA at 2881
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2754 is the October 2011 high
The 50 day EMA at 2743
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2663
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2572 is the November 2-11 gap down point
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2546 is the early September 2011 gap down point
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2469 is the November 2010 low
2441 is the November 2011 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 intraday low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low

S&P 500: Closed at 1342.64
Resistance:
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the recent May 2011 peak

Support:
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
The 20 day EMA at 1323
1318.51 is the May low
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1290
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
The 200 day SMA at 1258
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak

Dow: Closed at 12,801.23
Resistance:
12,876 is the May high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

Support:
12,754 is the July intraday peak
The 20 day EMA at 12,700
The 50 day EMA at 12,426
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The 200 day SMA at 11,991
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low

Economic Calendar

February 7 - Tuesday
- Consumer Credit, December (15:00): $19.3B actual versus $8.5B expected, $20.4B prior

February 8 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 02/04 (7:00): +7.5% actual versus -2.9% prior
- Crude Inventories, 02/04 (10:30): 0.304M actual versus 4.175M prior

February 9 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 02/04 (8:30): 370K expected, 367K prior
- Continuing Claims, 01/28 (8:30): 3475K expected, 3437K prior
- Wholesale Inventories, December (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.1% prior

February 10 - Friday
- Trade Balance, December (8:30): -$48.8B actual versus -$48.2B expected, -$47.1B prior (revised from -$47.8B)
- Michigan Sentiment, February Preliminary (9:55): 72.5 actual versus 74.0 expected, 75.0 prior
- Treasury Budget, January (2:00): -$27.4B actual versus -$40.0B expected, -$49.8B prior

February 14 - Tuesday
- Retail Sales, January (8:30): 0.8% expected, 0.1% prior
- Retail Sales ex-auto, January (8:30): 0.5% expected, -0.2% prior
- Export Prices ex-ag., January (8:30): -0.2% prior
- Import Prices ex-oil, January (8:30): 0.1% prior
- Business Inventories, December (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.3% prior

February 15 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 02/11 (7:00): 7.5% prior
- Empire Manufacturing, February (8:30): 14.0 expected, 13.5 prior
- Net Long-Term TIC Flow, December (9:00): $59.8B prior
- Industrial Production, January (9:15): 0.6% expected, 0.4% prior
- Capacity Utilization, January (9:15): 78.6% expected, 78.1% prior
- NAHB Housing Market , February (10:00): 26 expected, 25 prior
- Crude Inventories, 02/11 (10:30): 0.304M prior
- FOMC Minutes, 1/25 (14:00)

February 16 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 02/11 (8:30): 365K expected, 358K prior
- Continuing Claims, 02/04 (8:30): 3505K expected, 3515K prior
- Housing Starts, January (8:30): 670K expected, 657K prior
- Building Permits, January (8:30): 675K expected, 679K prior
- PPI, January (8:30): 0.3% expected, -0.1% prior
- Core PPI, January (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
- Philadelphia Fed, February (10:00): 10.0 expected, 7.3 prior

February 17 - Friday
- CPI, January (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.0% prior
- Core CPI, January (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
- Leading Indicators, January (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.4% prior

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (55472)2/12/2012 12:01:42 PM
From: robert b furman
   of 65138
 
Hi RtS,

I just want to say how much I enjoy learning and listening to those webcasts.

Thanks for providing them.

Bob

I'm still expecting a weak anemic new high that will feature mostly small cap low priced stocks.

Then a substantial decline that will last for several weeks/months.

Bob

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (55473)2/12/2012 12:06:01 PM
From: Sam
2 Recommendations   of 65138
 
Monday Morning Outlook:
Inflated VIX Premium Could Deter Potential Buyers
Optimism is on the rise, even as stocks approach formidable resistance
by Todd Salamone 2/11/2012 9:55:06 AM
schaeffersresearch.com 

Despite a few new multi-year highs for the major equity indexes, stocks ended last week modestly lower. Traders were spooked when euro-zone finance ministers demanded deeper spending cuts from Greece, which raised the prospect that the cash-strapped country could miss a looming deadline to secure bailout funds. With the drop-dead date set for this Wednesday, Feb. 15, it's entirely possible that more choppy trading is on the horizon.

In fact, Todd Salamone notes that a pullback is likely at this point, as the major equity indexes finished last week just below significant resistance levels. Against this backdrop, Todd examines whether the recent crop of bullish headlines is a potential contrarian indicator -- or just a natural reaction to the market's impressive rally. On the technical front, Rocky White takes a look at the cluster of "golden cross" formations to determine whether this indicator is truly a positive sign for stocks. Finally, we wrap up with a preview of the key economic and earnings reports for the week ahead, as well as a few sectors of note.

Notes from the Trading Desk: A Pullback Is Possible, but Panic Selling Is Unlikely
By Todd Salamone, Senior VP of Research


"The apparent increase in shorting activity among institutional players could result in a pause or consolidation, as equities were previously enjoying a bid from both short-covering and institutional buying. While evidence of institutional buying remains, a renewed interest in short selling could result in a coincident headwind that might lead to choppiness in the immediate days ahead." "Since the SPX's breakout above 1,260 in late December, it has been a straight march higher, with only one minor hiccup along the way: a pullback from the intraday highs of 1,330 to 1,300 from Jan. 26 to Jan. 30. The index comes into this week's trading at another potential resistance level, in the 1,340-1,350 area. As you can see on the chart below, the SPX was turned back from these levels on multiple occasions in 2011, suggesting this could be the next speed bump with which the index must contend."
- Monday Morning Outlook, February 4, 2012

Last week, we discussed the growing possibility of a pause in the impressive stock market advance, as some institutional players were showing signs of initiating short positions once again, following a period in which the equity market enjoyed a bid from both short-covering activity and underweight institutions deploying cash into the market. Since the big pop higher on Friday, Feb. 3, the market has done very little. A negative turn in the Greek debt saga last Friday, Feb. 10 sent stocks sharply lower, erasing a choppy grind higher throughout most of last week. The only encouraging technical note is that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - 134.36) never retreated beneath the previous Friday's post-gap lows, or its lows earlier in the week.



Hitting our radar last week was fresh evidence of optimism creeping into the market, right as the S&P 500 Index (SPX - 1,342.64) and the S&P 400 MidCap Index (MID - 964.49) approached their 2011 resistance levels in the 1,350 area and the 1,000 millennium mark, respectively. With key equity indexes lingering near resistance, these bullish headlines suggest we could be ripe for a pullback -- or, at the very least, continued choppiness in the days ahead. For example, headlines that caught our eye included:

In addition to the Feb. 9 headline suggesting a bullish technical backdrop, we saw technical research suggesting the CBOE Market Volatility Index's (VIX - 20.79) recent breakout has bullish implications. While we respect those publishing this research and think the studies are indeed valuable, our main takeaway is that the technical crowd seems to be taking a bullish stance -- the same crowd that was voicing concerns in late 2011, and roughly 100 SPX points ago.

Therefore, as contrarians, we are open to the fact that the market may be vulnerable to giving back some of its gains in the near term, as we see optimism coming in as the SPX and MID approach key resistance areas. A short-term pullback would be healthy, and would not jeopardize our overall bullish stance on equities for the intermediate and long term.

That said, it isn't necessarily a "slam dunk" that we retreat in the short term. After all, the positive sentiment isn't exactly misplaced, with the SPX up about 22% in a four-month period. In other words, one should put less weight on the contrarian implications of optimism in the context of strong price action, and more weight on the contrarian implications of optimism that occurs within the context of weak price action.

The good news for bulls is that in the event of a pullback, we would not expect a decline to be exacerbated by panic selling, since those that have recently accumulated stocks have purchased index or exchange-traded fund (ETF) puts, or VIX calls, as insurance against a correction. This was not the case around this time last year, when un-hedged buyers drove equities higher into mid-February, before negative European headlines surprised investors, resulting in a 7% correction in a month's period. Moreover, institutions at present do not have the exposure to equities that they did at the beginning of 2011, which suggests fresh cash on the sidelines that could mute a decline.

Finally, the "VIX Premium" indicator is again on our radar, which is a measure of the VIX relative to the SPX's actual, historical volatility. Given the steady demand for index and ETF put options that have accompanied the rally, put premiums have risen considerably relative to call premiums, driving the VIX to a substantial premium relative to SPX historical volatility.

For example, the VIX closed at 20.79 on Friday, or 146% above the SPX's current historical volatility of 8.44. As you can see on the chart below, the current VIX premium is relatively high. Therefore, a risk to bulls is that hedged players find put premiums too expensive, and thus sharply reduce their equity accumulation due to the expensive portfolio insurance. As you can see on the chart below, when the VIX is at a discount or is trading at a small premium to historical volatility -- implying cheap portfolio insurance -- major short-term buying opportunities have occurred during the past several months.



With portfolio insurance relatively expensive -- and thus unattractive for some hedge fund managers looking to put cash to work -- and the SPX and MID trading just below former resistance, the near-term price action may not be as rosy as the past several weeks. But pullbacks should continue to be viewed as buying opportunities, as considerable cash remains on the sidelines.


Indicator of the Week: Golden Crosses Everywhere
By Rocky White, Senior Quantitative Analyst


Foreword: Just over a week ago, on Feb. 3, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) experienced what market technicians call a "golden cross." That is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. This pattern is often viewed as bullish, as it can be used to determine whether we're in a bull or bear market trend.

Below is a chart showing the S&P 500 Index (SPX), along with different-colored markers showing when each of the three major equity indexes -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), SPX, and COMP -- had a golden cross. Note that each of those indexes have had a golden cross already this year: the Dow on Jan. 3, the SPX on Jan. 31, and the aforementioned COMP cross on Feb. 3.



Golden Cross on the Individual Indexes: So, is the golden cross truly a bullish sign for these indexes? Below are three tables showing the average returns for the indexes after they experience a golden cross, looking at time frames ranging from one month to one year. When calculating average returns, if multiple golden crosses happened within a month's time frame, I only considered the first signal. Each table also has the typical returns since 1975, for the sake of comparison.

Looking at the tables, you'll notice a golden cross on the Dow has actually been slightly bearish compared to typical returns. But for the SPX and COMP, the returns are bullish across all time frames.



Golden Cross on All Indexes: The span of 31 days -- from Jan. 3 to Feb. 3 -- in which all three indexes experienced a golden cross was a very short time frame for that to happen. It made me curious as to whether this might be more bullish than a typical signal. Using the SPX as our gauge, below are the dates that saw all three indexes complete a golden cross within two months of each other, or 60 days.



As you can see from the tables below, this is an extremely bullish indicator. The 13 times in which these three indexes formed a golden cross within two months of each other saw an average return of 10% over the next six months, and 15% over the next year. Typically, the SPX averages a gain of just 4.4% and 9.1%, respectively, over those time frames. Furthermore, six months after a "triple cross" occurrence, the SPX was positive all 13 times -- compared to just 69% positive over a typical six-month time frame. So, in the past, this rare event has had very bullish implications for the market.



This Week's Key Events: Earnings Flood Continues, from Agilent to Zillow
Schaeffer's Editorial Staff


Here is a brief list of some of the key events this week. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

Monday

  • There are no major economic reports on Monday. On the earnings front, we'll hear from Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX), AsiaInfo Linkage (ASIA), Health Management Associates (HMA), Limelight Networks (LLNW), Nordic American Tanker (NAT), Rackspace Hosting (RAX), Seattle Genetics (SGEN), and Skilled Healthcare Group (SKH).

Tuesday

  • Retail sales figures and business inventories are due out on Tuesday, along with the latest data on import and export prices. Avon Products (AVP), BorgWarner (BWA), Fossil (FOSL), Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT), MetLife (MET), Michael Kors (KORS), Peet's Coffee & Tea (PEET), United Therapeutics (UTHR), Weight Watchers International (WTW), Zipcar (ZIP), and Zynga (ZNGA) will share the earnings stage.

Wednesday

  • The Empire State manufacturing index hits the Street on Wednesday. Also on the day's docket are the NAHB's housing market index, industrial production and capacity utilization, weekly crude inventories, and the minutes from the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Quarterly earnings are expected from Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Agilent Technologies (A), Athenahealth (ATHN), CBS Corp. (CBS), Clearwire (CLWR), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), Comcast (CMCSA), Deere & Co. (DE), Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS), Goldcorp (GG), Marriott International (MAR), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), NetApp (NTAP), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla Motors (TSLA), and Zillow (Z).

Thursday

  • Thursday brings us housing starts, the producer price index (PPI), the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and the weekly report on jobless claims. The Fed also remains in focus, with Chairman Ben Bernanke slated to speak at an FDIC conference. Plenty of earnings are also on tap, including results from Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Applied Materials (AMAT), Aruba Networks (ARUN), Baidu (BIDU), Cloud Peak Energy (CLD), Demand Media (DMD), DirecTV (DTV), Duke Energy (DUK), General Motors (GM), Hyatt Hotels (H), J.M. Smucker (SJM), Nordstrom (JWN), Orbitz Worldwide (OWW), P.F. Chang's China Bistro (PFCB), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB), and SunPower (SPWR).

Friday

  • The economic calendar concludes with the consumer price index (CPI) and the Conference Board's index of leading indicators. The weekly slate of earnings wraps up with reports from Campbell Soup (CPB), EOG Resources (EOG), H.J. Heinz, Lincoln Electric (LECO), and Pilgrim's Pride (PPC).

And now a few sectors of note...

Dissecting The Sectors
Sector Utilities
Bullish

Outlook: The positive momentum in the utility sector has dimmed lately, as this traditionally defensive group has cooled its heels amid strength in the broader equities market. However, within the context of the longer-term uptrend in the PHLX Utility Sector Index (UTY), pullbacks like the one we're seeing now are not unusual, and we would view these dips as buying opportunities. In fact, UTY continues to find support at the $455 area -- a site of former resistance in mid-2011. In addition to the sector's solid long-term technical performance, utilities offer attractive capital appreciation potential, as well as appealing dividend yields (with a number of sector components going ex-div this month). As a result, we view utility stocks as a nice complement to a portfolio that consists of some other names deemed as more "risky." Meanwhile, despite the technical and fundamental appeal, there's still a healthy amount of skepticism surrounding these stocks. We typically don't see this group mentioned in articles that advocate high-yielding stocks, and many analysts remain on the sidelines. Within the utility sector, Duke Energy (DUK) and Consolidated Edison (ED) have turned in impressive uptrends over the past year, and both securities are lingering near annual-high territory. Nevertheless, there's not a single "buy" endorsement between the two. Going forward, a round of well-deserved upgrades could draw a fresh wave of buyers to the table, helping these stocks extend their positive price action.

Sector Leisure/Retail
Bullish

Outlook: The trend of improving jobs data has continued, with January payrolls surging impressively, and the unemployment rate pulling back to its lowest point in nearly three years. Additionally, consumer-level inflation has been relatively tame, pointing to an improving fundamental backdrop for the U.S. consumer -- and, by proxy, consumer discretionary stocks. On the charts, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) remains a technical outperformer. XRT notched another week of impressive gains, with the fund extending its lead above formerly staunch resistance at $54, and setting a new all-time high of $57.77. For those seeking a bullish play in the retail/leisure space, we recommend focusing on stocks in solid technical uptrends that are surrounded by skepticism. A few of our current favorites include retailers AutoZone (AZO), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), and Whole Foods Market (WFM), along with restaurateurs Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), and McDonald's (MCD). With skepticism still lingering toward these consumer-dependent stocks, contrarians can continue to capitalize on situations where sentiment has yet to catch up with the bullish technical performance.

Sector
Homebuilding
Bullish

Outlook: The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) pulled back last week, but maintained its footing above former resistance in the $19.50 area. From here, XHB still has room to rally to $23.25 -- which is half its all-time high, reached only three months after the fund was launched in 2006. Within the group, a few housing stocks are now running into key trendline resistance. For example, Meritage Homes (MTH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are challenging their 80-month moving averages, while Hovnanian (HOV), KB Home (KBH), and PulteGroup (PHM) are testing their 40-month trendlines. Although this moving-average resistance could cap the sector's collective momentum in the short term, we continue to like the negative sentiment backdrop. For example, builders were hit with yet another round of downgrades on Friday, with analysts warning that these stocks have gotten ahead of themselves. Going forward, these names could benefit from upgrades or short-covering activity as the technical and fundamental performance continues to surpass the Street's low expectations.

Sector
Energy
Bearish

Outlook: The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has underperformed, with the security lately encountering resistance at its 52-week breakeven level. Indeed, it doesn't appear that hedge funds are particularly interested in energy stocks, as the 50-day put/call volume ratio on XLE has plunged dramatically of late. Since hedged players typically purchase puts as they're accumulating equities, it would appear that these deep-pocketed investors don't see much value in the energy sector at the moment. Meanwhile, the inability of crude futures to establish a foothold above $100 per barrel is another reflection of generally weak energy demand. In fact, last Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) took a hatchet to its global demand forecast, and noted that the market could withstand the loss of oil from Iran. Despite these technical and fundamental issues, we've recently spotted some bullish coverage on energy stocks in the financial media -- making this a potential contrarian bearish play to watch during the near term.

Prepare for the investing week ahead. Every week, Bernie Schaeffer and his staff provide you with their insight about what has happened and, more importantly, what will happen in the market. We dig deep and show you what's happening behind the scenes, and tell you which indicators are predicting major market moves. If you enjoyed this week's edition of Monday Morning Outlook, sign up here for free weekly delivery straight to your inbox.




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To: robert b furman who wrote (55474)2/12/2012 1:36:09 PM
From: Return to Sender
2 Recommendations   of 65138
 
Bob, the recent rally is due for a pullback but nothing in the selling last week indicates that it is over. Volume was lower on the decline than it has been on the rise. Note that weekly chart on the S&P 500 shows that we are overbought and due a pullback but that the market can and does get even more overbought. It's possible that we could see this weekly chart of the S&P 500 exceed an RSI of 70 before we hit the next major top.




And it doubtless will be a major top because this rally has had poorer participation than the original rally off the March 2009 bottom. But that top may not come for a while yet. Volume should pick up dramatically at the actual market top.




JMHO, RtS

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (55472)2/12/2012 5:07:16 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom
   of 65138
 
Good analysis, I like their conclusion overall. The one I have noticed lately is how the small cap semis have been going up like "crazy". This is great when you are on board, but that action can't bo on forever.

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (55476)2/12/2012 8:44:05 PM
From: robert b furman
1 Recommendation   of 65138
 
Hi RtS,

I agree with your read.

Just trying to be ready to buy the dip.

I've lightened up into this rise and look forward to reloading into this corrective wave.

Just trading a short term scalp account.

Core positions be long term holds for that much more fun and much bigger volume top.

Thanks for your read - I agree and if we are both wrong - I greatly value your read/<smile>

Bob

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From: Eric2/13/2012 9:45:40 AM
1 Recommendation   of 65138
 
Polysilicon Prices Hit Record Low in 2011; Will Head Even Lower, Enabling $0.70/W PV in 2012

GTM Research publishes new report on polysilicon market, examining the epic price declines of 2011, the effect on the larger PV supply chain and the future of the market.

GTM Research publishes the Polysilicon 2012-2016: Supply, Demand & Implications for the Global PV Industry report, a comprehensive analysis on global polysilicon markets, including the technologies, business strategies and economic roadmap for the industry. To learn more, click here.

In 2011, the solar industry saw global oversupply drive PV prices to record lows, with crystalline silicon (c-Si) module prices falling from $1.80 per watt at the start of 2011 to $0.90 per watt by year’s end.

High purity silicon (polysilicon), the key feedstock for c-Si modules, played only a minor role in this price collapse, as over 80 percent of polysilicon is sold via long-term contracts, and the pricing on these contracts moved little for most of 2011. However, oversupply in the polysilicon market pushed the spot price of silicon down from $80 per kilogram in late March 2011 to under $30 per kilogram in December, representing more than a 60 percent drop. This substantially lower spot price gave silicon customers (i.e., wafer manufacturers) the leverage to renegotiate contract pricing downward, and this will result in much lower realized silicon average selling prices (ASPs) in 2012.

Lower silicon prices in 2012 will likely lead to even lower c-Si module prices. Without any other improvements, a $30-per-kilogram drop in silicon price would save module manufacturers approximately $0.20 per watt, which could bring module prices below $0.70 per watt.

For most of the past decade, polysilicon manufacturing was a near oligopoly, and growth in solar-end market demand allowed the incumbents to earn healthy and consistent EBITDA margins greater than 40 percent. In 2008, a shortage of polysilicon pushed prices to outrageously high levels (greater than $400 per kilogram in the spot market), and with those high prices came eye-popping 70 percent margins that enticed existing players as well as new entrants to embark on plant construction/expansion plans. These massive new plants and expansions made their presence felt in 2011, with a supply/demand imbalance pushing silicon prices to record-low levels, below even the cash costs of many manufacturers.

While spot pricing has collapsed and contract pricing is expected to follow, the cost of production has changed little, which implies substantial margin contraction in the coming years. With spot prices below $30 per kilogram, the scores of smaller, higher-cost producers face bleak options: continue to operate at a loss, hoping that pricing will recover before their cash runs out, or moth-ball the plant and live to fight another day. While oversupply will push many companies to shutter plants and lay off employees, other low-cost players will thrive and expand their share of the market.

“In 2011, in the polysilicon industry -- and the solar supply chain in general -- manufacturing outpaced end-use,” said GTM Research Senior Analyst, Brett Prior. “After a half-decade of silicon demand outstripping supply, the aggressive expansion plans finally overshot. This supply/demand imbalance will push producers to lower contract prices closer to the level of manufacturing costs at $20 per kilogram, and will force higher-cost manufacturers to exit the industry. While the solar market will continue to grow at a 10 percent to 20 percent pace in the coming years, reductions in the amount of silicon used in each module means that end demand for polysilicon will grow at a slower pace. The end result is that the current roster of over 170 polysilicon manufacturers and startups will likely be winnowed down to a dozen survivors by the end of decade.”

GTM Research expects to see established players such as GCL Solar, REC, OCI, Tokuyama, Hemlock and Wacker weather this extended period of pricing weakness, thanks to strong balance sheets, superior technology, and some of the lowest manufacturing costs due to economies of scale. These industry leaders will likely be able to continue charging premium prices, as reliability and certainty of supply will become more of an issue for their smaller competitors.

At over 230 pages, GTM Research's report includes production and price/margin forecasts to 2016, along with incisive perspectives on the industry's competitive landscape and survival strategies available to polysilicon producers.

Visit the report's web page today to learn more: http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/polysilicon-2012-2016.

greentechmedia.com 

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From: Gottfried2/13/2012 6:22:04 PM
3 Recommendations   of 65138
 
bpNDX fell two to 79% [WYNN FSLR]

Jan31 Feb01 Feb02 Feb03 Feb06 Feb07 Feb08 Feb09 Feb10 Feb13
AAPL AAPL AAPL AAPL
AAPL AAPL ADBE ADBE ADBE ADBE
ADBE AAPL AAPL ADBE AAPL ADP ADP ADP ADP AAPL
ADP ADBE ADBE ADP ADBE ADSK ADSK ADSK ADSK ADBE
ADSK ADP ADP ADSK ADP AKAM AKAM AKAM AKAM ADP
AKAM ADSK ADSK AKAM ADSK ALTR ALTR ALTR ALTR ADSK
ALTR AKAM AKAM ALTR AKAM ALXN ALXN ALXN ALXN AKAM
ALXN ALTR ALTR ALXN ALTR AMGN AMAT AMAT AMAT ALTR
AMGN ALXN ALXN AMGN ALXN ATVI AMGN AMGN AMGN ALXN
AMZN AMGN AMGN APOL AMGN BIDU ATVI ATVI ATVI AMAT
APOL APOL APOL ATVI ATVI BIIB BIDU BIDU BIDU AMGN
ATVI ATVI ATVI BIDU BIDU CA BIIB BIIB BIIB ATVI
BIDU BIDU BIDU BIIB BIIB CELG BMC BMC BMC BIDU
BIIB BIIB BIIB CA CA CERN CA CA CA BIIB
CA CA CA CELG CELG CHKP CELG CELG CELG BMC
CELG CELG CELG CERN CERN CMCSA CERN CERN CERN CA
CERN CERN CERN CHKP CHKP COST CHKP CHKP CHKP CELG
CHKP CHKP CHKP CMCSA CMCSA CSCO CMCSA CMCSA CMCSA CERN
CHRW CMCSA CMCSA COST COST CTRP CSCO CSCO CSCO CHKP
CMCSA CSCO CSCO CSCO CSCO CTSH CTRP CTRP CTRP CMCSA
CSCO CTRP CTRP CTRP CTRP CTXS CTSH CTSH CTSH CSCO
CTRP CTSH CTSH CTSH CTSH DELL CTXS CTXS CTXS CTRP
CTSH DELL DELL DELL DELL DLTR DELL DELL DELL CTSH
DELL DLTR DLTR DLTR DLTR EBAY DLTR DLTR DLTR CTXS
DLTR EBAY EBAY EBAY EBAY ESRX EBAY EBAY EBAY DELL
EBAY ESRX ESRX ESRX ESRX EXPD ESRX ESRX ESRX DLTR
ESRX EXPD EXPD EXPD EXPD EXPE EXPD EXPD EXPD EBAY
EXPD EXPE EXPE EXPE EXPE FAST EXPE EXPE EXPE ESRX
EXPE FAST FAST FAST FAST FFIV FAST FAST FAST EXPD
FAST FFIV FFIV FFIV FFIV FISV FFIV FFIV FFIV EXPE
FFIV FISV FISV FISV FISV FLEX FISV FISV FISV FAST
FISV FLEX FLEX FLEX FLEX FOSL FLEX FLEX FLEX FFIV
FLEX FOSL FOSL FOSL FOSL FSLR FOSL FOSL FOSL FISV
FOSL FSLR FSLR FSLR FSLR GILD FSLR FSLR FSLR FLEX
FSLR GILD GILD GILD GILD GMCR GILD GILD GILD FOSL
GILD GMCR GMCR GMCR GMCR GOLD GMCR GMCR GMCR GILD
GMCR GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GRMN GOLD GOLD GOLD GMCR
GOLD GRMN GRMN GRMN GRMN HSIC GRMN GRMN GRMN GOLD
GRMN HSIC HSIC HSIC HSIC INFY HSIC HSIC HSIC GRMN
HSIC INFY INFY INFY INFY INTC INFY INFY INFY HSIC
INFY INTC INTC INTC INTC INTU INTC INTC INTC INFY
INTC INTU INTU INTU INTU ISRG INTU INTU INTU INTC
INTU ISRG ISRG ISRG ISRG KLAC ISRG ISRG ISRG INTU
ISRG KLAC KLAC KLAC KLAC LIFE KLAC KLAC KLAC ISRG
KLAC LIFE LIFE LIFE LIFE LINTA LIFE LIFE LIFE KLAC
LIFE LINTA LINTA LINTA LINTA LLTC LINTA LINTA LINTA LIFE
LINTA LLTC LLTC LLTC LLTC LRCX LLTC LLTC LLTC LINTA
LLTC LRCX LRCX LRCX LRCX MAT LRCX LRCX LRCX LLTC
LRCX MAT MAT MAT MAT MCHP MAT MAT MAT LRCX
MAT MCHP MCHP MCHP MCHP MNST MCHP MCHP MCHP MAT
MCHP MNST MNST MNST MNST MRVL MNST MNST MNST MCHP
MNST MRVL MRVL MRVL MRVL MSFT MRVL MRVL MRVL MNST
MRVL MSFT MSFT MSFT MSFT MU MSFT MSFT MSFT MRVL
MSFT MU MU MU MU MYL MU MU MU MSFT
MU MYL MYL MYL MYL NFLX MYL MYL MYL MU
MYL NFLX NFLX NFLX NFLX NTAP NFLX NFLX NFLX MYL
NFLX NTAP NTAP NTAP NTAP NUAN NTAP NTAP NTAP NFLX
NUAN NUAN NUAN NUAN NUAN NVDA NUAN NUAN NUAN NTAP
NVDA NVDA NVDA NVDA NVDA NWSA NVDA NVDA NVDA NUAN
NWSA NWSA NWSA NWSA NWSA ORLY NWSA NWSA NWSA NVDA
ORLY ORLY ORLY ORLY ORLY PAYX ORLY ORLY ORLY NWSA
PAYX PAYX PAYX PAYX PAYX PCAR PAYX PAYX PAYX ORLY
PCAR PCAR PCAR PCAR PCAR PCLN PCAR PCAR PCAR PAYX
PCLN PCLN PCLN PCLN PCLN PRGO PCLN PCLN PCLN PCAR
QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM QCOM PCLN
ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST ROST QCOM
SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX SBUX ROST
SHLD SHLD SHLD SHLD SHLD SHLD SHLD SHLD SHLD SBUX
SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SIAL SHLD
SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SPLS SIAL
SRCL SRCL SRCL SRCL SRCL SRCL SRCL SRCL SRCL SPLS
STX STX STX STX STX STX STX STX STX SRCL
TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA TEVA STX
VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD TEVA
VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VRSN VOD
WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX WCRX VRSN
WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WFM WCRX
WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WYNN WFM
XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX
XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY XRAY
YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO YHOO

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To: Gottfried who wrote (55480)2/13/2012 6:24:47 PM
From: Gottfried
4 Recommendations   of 65138
 
10 new 52 week NDX highs
		
02/13/2012
Open High Low Close Volume
AAPL 499.53 503.83 497.09 502.6 18381938
ALXN 83.95 84.83 83.54 84.35 1200051
CA 26.86 26.89 26.68 26.77 2242268
CMCSA 27.39 27.52 27.27 27.41 7739804
DLTR 86.99 87.76 86.72 87.72 687433
EXPE 33.8 34.489 33.695 34.41 3426118
FAST 48.95 50.63 48.86 50.58 3185590
ISRG 492.58 506.009 492.1 503.07 476336
MAT 32.27 32.59 32.27 32.4 7734407
PCLN 549.43 573.13 547.1 571.15 1375425

NO new 52 week NDX low

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