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To: Nils Mork-Ulnes who started this subject	2/13/2001 10:48:49 PM
From: Ruffian	of 33051

Amstrad enters China's mobile phone market The Independent - United Kingdom; Feb 13, 2001 BY KATHERINE GRIFFITHS AMSTRAD, THE electronics group chaired by Sir Alan Sugar, yesterday announced it was moving into the mainland Chinese mobile phone market with a deal to have its phones manufactured locally. Amstrad's shares rose 9p to 125p on the news it had delivered on its promise to take on mobile giants such as Motorola and Nokia, which control 90 per cent of the Chinese market. The company's new low-cost phones will be manufactured under licence by Haier CCT, a company formed by Hong Kong's CCT Telecom and the leading mainland domestic appliance group, Haier. Amstrad will receive an up-front design fee for the phones, and a licence payment enabling Haier CCT to sell the phones in China and Taiwan. Amstrad will also receive a royalties payment for each unit sold. Martin Bland, finance director at Amstrad, said: "We will get a slice of the growth side, which we believe to be substantial - 42 million mobile phones were sold in China last year. But we will not bear any of the risk." Mr Bland said he was confident that Haier CCT would be successful in taking market share away from existing Western providers in China, as it had already done this in the domestic appliances market. Amstrad itself will sell the phones manufactured by Haier CCT in markets outside China and Taiwan, including Europe. Amstrad last year said it would be able to make significant cost savings by manufacturing phones in China. All Material Subject to Copyright

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To: Peter Sherman who wrote (9223)	2/15/2001 4:06:48 AM
From: tero kuittinen	of 33051

Pete - this may be deeply hurtful for you on a personal level, but the global phone sales outlook hinges on the GSM market. That is what will determine the annual sales growth. According to Dataquest, Siemens knocked out Matsushita from the Top Four phone manufacturer list during the 4Q of 2000. I know that many Americans love to talk about how Asian phone manufacturers are increasingly important players; but that is the direct opposite of what statistics are telling us. Samsung crashed below 5% market share during the 4Q, Mitsubishi is crawling along at 3.4%, Sony and Kyocera have dropped from the radar screen entirely. Not one phone manufacturer prioritizing CDMA is making any perceptible gains. There are many people able and willing to ignore all statistical evidence in evaluating the phone market, but in the long term that approach gets harder and harder to maintain. Tero

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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (9224)	2/15/2001 8:29:31 AM
From: Eric L	of 33051

Tero, << this may be deeply hurtful for you ... but the global phone sales outlook hinges on the GSM market. That is what will determine the annual sales growth .... what statistics are telling us >> Glad to see you checking in and in fine fettle. This may be deeply hurtful for you but Nokia is on the hook to get their CDMA market share into the high teens this year. As Larry Paulson pointed out at Capital Market Days, CDMA will have 42% to 45% market share in the US in 2002, and past TDMA 3rd or 4th quarter as the dominant technology in North America. Last time I looked the US was still Nokia's largest market, and the majority of Nokia's shareholders were still in the US. Nokia just got a nice upgrade to Strong Buy the other day from QUALCOMM Bear Matt Hoffman, but Matt also pointed out in the final section of his report titled "Risks to the Story": "CDMA woes - Despite shipping almost two million CDMA units in 2000, it appears the company still lacks traction in this product family. Right now, this is a secondary concern to us but remains something to keep an eye upon." No Nokia event goes by without Ed Snyder asking for a status on their CDMA promises. To the best of my knowledge Verizon has not yet solved the "Send SMS" problem with the 5185i on Verizon's new nationwide 2-way SMS platform, and their release of the WAP enabled 6185i is contingent upon it, and the new models further contingent upon it. Yes GSM leads the way, but if Nokia doesn't get over the CDMA hurdle, and get those millions of GPRS models into the market, Nokia is going to be hard pressed to make its unit numbers, and the stock is going to wallow around. Nokia in the interim is going to need to watch its backside from the Samsung and other Asian models floating into GSM land. Meantime VoiceStream is still awaiting a Nokia WAP model. Will "Stinger" beat em to market? As for that TDMA trend you spotted ... - Eric -

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To: Eric L who wrote (9225)	2/15/2001 9:33:36 AM
From: tero kuittinen	of 33051

"Floating" is a fairly good description of what Samsung is doing at the moment. Eric... I understand and forgive your obsession with Verizon - none of us is totally free of bias (though some of us come pretty damn close). But isn't there a danger that it's obscuring your vision somewhat? We're talking about an operator that showed 16% subscriber growth in the most recent quarter. I haven't noticed anyone worrying about how Asian vendors got shut out of the initial AT&T's GSM overlay handset order. This is a fairly big deal - considering the number of follow-up TDMA-GSM flips. Today's news item concerns Israel's Cellcom, which has abruptly decided to reverse its CDMA plans and select GSM as the TDMA follow-up. No doubt the Nordic Time Division Ninjas are now infiltrating the Middle East after the Operation Rio has been concluded. It's noteworthy that TIM landed the Brazilian GSM license and will probably get the next round as well. Add that up with Mexican, Argentinian and Canadian TDMA-to-GSM conversions and mix it with Cingular. What do you get? A day closer to grave and deeper in debt... plus a reversal of the TDMA trend we discussed last year. A reversal from TDMA to GSM. I'd say the impact outweighs Verizon's messaging plans by a magnitude or two. Tero

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