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To: Stoctrash who wrote (11956)10/10/2008 9:25:23 PM
From: ahhaha of 23299
 
Something was wrong there, given the situation it should have been $1500-$2500 and rocking all week and it wasn't.

I mentioned why earlier when I said that going long gold may be several months away. The problem with gold comes from the movement into the dollar due to sturm und drang in other currencies. They all hate the dollar until push comes to shove. The US may be in bad financial condition, but that doesn't mean anywhere else will be in better condition. It is believed(I think falsely) that everywhere else will be worse, so they pile into the dollar. If you owned bhat and Thailand was in dire straits, would you continue to hold bhat or would you convert? The Siamese convert even though Thailand may be in better shape. Such is psychology.

There's a bigger macroeconomic problem developing for gold too. The damn dollar will continue to rise even when the sturm und drang is over. New factors will come into play that drive it higher, and therefore, the kneejerk gold market will go lower. I have no idea why the gold market simply thinks it must move gold contrary to the dollar. I guess they think a rising dollar in effect is equivalent to rising interest rates. Sturm und drang creates this appearance, but sturm, as expressed in the constraint on supply of funds, is due to lack of confidence rather than high demand for funds which comes from high confidence.

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To: chainik who wrote (11957)10/10/2008 9:36:10 PM
From: ahhaha of 23299
 
What is also strange is how weak gold miners are - producers and especially juniors.

Read my previous post. It isn't strange at all. The miners are more sensitive than bullion to interest rate changes.

Also, everyone is selling anything that can be sold to raise cash. Gold has held up so it can be sold without much loss.

Very cheap relative to gold;

Gold stocks have an evaluation associated with their earnings power. Gold mining is capital intensive. To get the gold the miners have to borrow a lot. Uh oh, there;s that word, "borrow", which isn't in vogue these days. How's that gold miner's bottom line looking now? In light of that consideration you have to sell them before the other guy does.

also they are supposed to benefit from lower commodities.

I assume you mean prices of fuel, steel, and other stuff needed to mine. That's true, but it doesn't fall fast enough to compensate for what I've mentioned above. Also, miners, the guys in the holes, are insensitive to all this high falutin' finance talk. They're suing for higher wages, and that alone absorbs any cost gain from declining commodity prices.

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To: sixty2nds who wrote (11958)10/10/2008 9:51:44 PM
From: ahhaha of 23299
 
Is there a debt to equity ratio other than 0 debt that yields positive expectations to guessing with knowledge?

Yes. You and others like Crossy have pointed out how. If you pay down debt in a highly disciplined manner, you can issue debt again. As for some particular %, there is none. I have my standards. I don't like more than 10%, but even that is bad enough. With my approach one is forced away from big legacy corporations and towards newer companies where taking down debt isn't possible. However, Crossy mentioned a nickel miner which is actually a paper pusher. They're trading. Even though they may pay down debt, I don't like what they do, because they may be forced by their trading results to break discipline.

Is there a difference between short term debt and long term debt effects in your analysis?

There's nothing wrong with issuing commersh or engaging in any debt like instrument which promotes commerce. I call it "trade credit". It's more holy than currency. You do not violate the terms of trade credit for any reason.

My guess would be that ST debt gets turned into LT debt more often than it gets paid off.

Exactly, and all the Hahvahds had a dozen good reasons why that conversion should be pushed. After some years they're all gone and a new set comes in who can see no reason why ever more extensions can't be made. Nowhere along this garden path can it be said that at this point or that it should have been stopped. Thus knowledge is a poor player who struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more;

What is the difference between knowledge and experience with respect to guessing?

Experience doesn't last, but there's an eternal fountain of knowledge to replace it.

Did that particular Hahvahd school/dept. invite you back?

Are you kidding?

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To: ahhaha who wrote (11961)10/10/2008 10:13:09 PM
From: chainik of 23299
 
<The miners are more sensitive than bullion to interest rate changes>

That part I don't understand. You mean higher rates->higher USD->lower miners? I thought miners are more sensitive to the yield curve (the steeper the better).

<everyone is selling anything that can be sold to raise cash>

My feeling is that this is at least 99.9% correct. Would be nice to figure out which sectors will do better when some risk taking is back :)

<To get the gold the miners have to borrow a lot>

True, but producers (or those who are close to production and don't need to borrow) also were hit hard.

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To: chainik who wrote (11963)10/10/2008 10:26:28 PM
From: ahhaha of 23299
 
That part I don't understand.

Mining companies are corporate entities that deliver bottom lines. They're capital intensive, capital as in debt capital.

You mean higher rates->higher USD->lower miners?

No. I mean,

higher rates--->lower earnings---> lower mining stocks.

I thought miners are more sensitive to the yield curve (the steeper the better).

You guys simply must get rid of this ridiculous nonsense called yield curve. It's an artificial derivation. It subtracts apples from oranges. What does that mean? Less or more fruit?

figure out which sectors will do better when some risk taking is back :)

Financial stocks. Only problem which ones? I know what I like.

True, but producers (or those who are close to production and don't need to borrow) also were hit hard.

The only gold I know which is debt free is GG. That isn't the same as needing debt capital, but having debt on your balance sheet hits your P&L between the lines whether you need capital for operations or not.

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To: ahhaha who wrote (11962)10/10/2008 10:43:25 PM
From: sixty2nds of 23299
 
Understood.
No. I was not kidding
Any other invites from that institution of "knowledge" that you accepted?
I found out yesterday my stand on principle last fall
paid rather large dividends.
I'm not talkin $$.
It ain't the first time. It ain't the last.
Never surrender.
I know .... it is so Churchhill.
You never gave your view of Cicero.

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To: gpowell who wrote (11954)10/10/2008 11:31:34 PM
From: frankw1900 of 23299
 
We are struggling here. I think we have to be careful not to assume by definition that M1, M2, or M3 or anything is money. They are all proxies for the underlying conceptual variable that we all employ in our generic evaluation of the impact of money on the economy.

Alan is full of shit. He knows what money is.

Money is promises. Gazillions and gazillions of congealed promises. Always the same promise. The promise is what it buys today it can buy tomorrow and every day after that. (I'm not saying the promise is always kept but it's very convenient to believe it except under extreme circumstances). By its very nature money is metaphysical.

This is not a definition but a description.

I wonder if you would reject money as a conceptual variable because money cannot be made rigorous?

You can talk about it by giving a name and a number. That's rigorous enough.

When the money becomes untrustworthy we go to a different name and number somebody else uses.

Scarcity can't be described in the same manner because its psychological/metaphysical component is not the same. The money promise extends into the future indefinitely and everyone wants to keep it. Scarcity, or lack, of anything in particular is seen as a temporary thing we strive to defeat. This is the usual reason people think they must work.

If we get nearby defeating most kinds of scarcity we find we need to work, anyway. Those who "retire", that is, (retreat from ???), either find something else to do that's like work, or live and die unhappy (a state of unsatisfaction).

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To: ahhaha who wrote (11920)10/11/2008 3:36:46 AM
From: frankw1900 of 23299
 
OK! In the twilight zone.... that I understand. Fascinating answer.

I'm going to spend some time thinking about it and how I go about choosing stocks to buy.

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To: ahhaha who wrote (11959)10/11/2008 12:06:25 PM
From: gpowell of 23299
 
Value does not come from price.

A truism. And with "scarcity as vapid gedanken," then:
Message 16020409

Value comes from unicorns? Sure.

Then define it [scarcity].

I did already!

Glass Steagall was broken because the existing forms of money fractured into many indeterminate pieces.....

True.

and this has led to big problems now.

False. Or, true given the circumstance of no free market in money.

I would by taking a trip down to the coin shop. Besides, money, however one would like to define it, is not a "conceptual variable". I can't transact, represent, or hold conceptual variables.

I would suggest you consider the conceptual leap necessary for a vendor to accept the first bank script in lieu of coin. Or, perhaps you believe the acceptance of credit is hardwired into humans?

AG's comments seem obtuse since none of those forms or their components can be separated and controlled. That's why gold is becoming of interest. When money loses its definition under duress then its buying power is lost. People then scramble after gold since everyone knows it's a unique form of money that can't be redefined.

Good money drives out bad.

No "that which" has an effective substitution since any substitute depends on an arbitrary utility function which can't necessarily be made agreeable to any other "that which". Without perfect agreeability, the market does not clear.

You're requiring utility functions to be asymptotic before a transaction occurs - that's a false requirement. Asymptotic utility functions simply define a point of equilibrium, a pareto optimal point. Where utility functions are not asymptotic transactions still occur so long as both participants are better off afterwards. However, non-asymptotic utility functions would indicate a pareto enhancing transaction is theoretically possible. We can note the markets adoption of an easily divided good as a transaction medium. As I've stated many times, if a transaction exists that could theoretically enhance utility the market will attempt to enable that transaction.

You said that "prices imply scarcity" and by that you mean that some price arises because the entity priced has limited availability and existent demand. Without the two no price would arise. I pointed out how a price can arise with no demand.

Really? How?

The cutting point here is that price arises in a way not expected and in a way which can't be anticipated.

It's correct to say prices fluctuate in a way not expected and in a way which can't be anticipated.

Say was saying that price can arise where none previously existed because there was no demand at any supply until any supply is increased, and this can occur without any demand.

False. Say's comments to Malthus concerned the impossibility of general gluts. As interpreted today, Say's law essentially states that every act of supply is an act of demand - since the motivation to supply is a demand.

You see this phenomenon in the stock exchange tape of atomic actions all the time. If someone books more away, price away is affected. The instantaneous market may be idle, but price away changes due to the occurrence of increased size away. The potential of action is increased, but that potential is not reflecting any change of state of demand or supply. You sell tomatoes. You have a few on display. They don't sell. You increase substantially the number you have on display. They start selling.

And why does he have tomatoes on display?

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To: ahhaha who wrote (11964)10/11/2008 12:12:53 PM
From: chainik of 23299
 
<ridiculous nonsense called yield curve. It's an artificial derivation. It subtracts apples from oranges>

I am sure you have something non-trivial in mind. Yield as a function of time to maturity; no As, no Os (g). Is one number (say, TNX-FF rate) OK with you?

<That isn't the same as needing debt capital, but having debt on your balance sheet hits your P&L between the lines whether you need capital for operations or not>

Why mid-sized producers (something like NXG) should care about debt? They have enough cash, they produce gold (I hope (g)), no need for additional financing. In addition, the drop in Australian dollar is strongly in their favor (cheaper labor). Many juniors look cheap, if one assumes that the price of gold remains stable.

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