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To: John Carragher who wrote (40561)4/30/2004 10:18:39 PM
From: quartersawyer
   of 147155
<Seems like a strange statement.>

Dr Kan has a lot of outspoken contrarian appeal to the Communist leadership. He enjoys considering Westerners and domestic telecom business managers to be of insect mentality.

I'm checking on it, but pretty sure the four telecom operators we're relying upon in China are each more than 50% state-owned. The missive from much higher up delivered through MII that so freely enables the carriers to decide independently on the 3G tech of their choice... is strictly bogus. The government controls the management, the shares, the competition, the licenses, the spectrum.

China needs efficient 3G wireless for consumers and industry, so it's bound to happen. 2006?
(CCID Consulting is a significant source, and that's over $30 billion for 2006)
Kan himself has been outspoken about there being only another year or two for PAS, which implies there will be 3G licenses for Netcom and Telecom (maybe the Olympics will showcase TD?). It wouldn't surprise me a bit if the guy is positioning himself for a huge payoff by the industry. Here's some of his recent button-pushing:

China launch of 3G heading for disaster due to unreceptive market - researcher

2004-3-19 10:59:46
BEIJING (AFX-ASIA) - Third generation (3G) mobile technology is likely to flop due to unripe market conditions in China, a leading local telecommunications researcher told government and business representatives at a conference in Beijing today.

"The child that is 3G is likely to die," Kan Kaili, a well-known telecoms researcher with the Beijing University of Post and Telecommunications pronounced at a conference on 3G and China's economy.

Billions of yuan have already been invested in 3G technology in China in the hope of tapping into the world's largest mobile phone market -- 269 mln subscribers by the end of 2003 -- when the wireless data-transfer technology is launched. It is yet unclear when 3G will be launched in China, as the government has yet to choose between competing standards.

Local media have reported that CCID Consulting Co Ltd, a research unit under the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) expects the amount of investment in 3G to reach 252 bln yuan, with 3G handset sales expected to reach 100 bln yuan and the total number of subscribers to exceed 400 mln by 2006.

"In the future, the launch of 3G will give a major boost to the development of the telecommunications industry, and increasing capital expenditure on 3G systems and equipment will be a trend from 2004 to 2007," Lu Guoying, a senior analyst with CCID was quoted as saying earlier.

"There's no demand for it (3G) and no applications," Kan said.

While there is little awareness of 3G among mobile phone users in China, investors are betting that demand will soar once the technology is put on the market, he said.

However, he sees this prospect as unlikely.

"If there's no demand now, you better not put it on the market," he said, arguing that 3G would go the same way as ISDN.

ISDN, an Internet service launched in the 90s, was quickly replaced by ADSL and has almost disappeared from the market, according to Kan.

He that the consumer base in China did not have as much potential for the technology as was predicted.

"China's social revolution is incomplete, we're not an industrialized country," he said, referring to the fact that the majority of China's population still resides in the countryside in poor conditions, and had no need for such sophisticated technology.

"Imagine if the empress Ci Xi had a 1,000 watt power generator," he joked, alluding to the 19th century ruler of China.

Turning to Nokia, Ericsson and Motorola representatives, whose companies have invested heavily in 3G, he added: "Keep your options (open)."

<are we to believe china wants to fall behind in wireless>

They definitely have an opportunity to do more with the technology than scowl at decadent gaming and video applications. You might be able to ask him directly... here's's brief bio and e-mail address for him (but it's three years old):
About Dr. Kaili Kan

Dr. Kaili Kan is currently dean of the School of Business Management at Beijing University of Posts & Telecommunications (BUPT). For over a decade, Dr. Kan was in charge of the research, recommendation and formulation of China’s telecommunications policy and development strategies for the Ministry of Posts & Telecommunications (MPT) and later the Ministry of Information Industries (MII). Dr. Kan received his Ph.D. from Stanford University in 1984. Since then, he also served in many posts internationally in the telecommunication sector, including Pacific Bell, ChinaSat, the World Bank, as well as operating a consulting agency in the US. Dr. Kan’s current interest is focused on the research and development of China’s telecommunication policy and strategies and can be reached at

<The key issue is whether China will ever go for 3G.>

Only with the right Guanxi
Message 20080677

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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (40555)5/1/2004 1:45:58 AM
From: Maurice Winn
   of 147155
It was Andrew Viterbi who was the adamant promoter of DO as he maintained that data needed its own channel for efficiency and speed.

It seems to be a reasonable strategy.

At one of the annual meetings, we asked Andrew Viterbi about OFDM [when I found some work being done on it at Auckland University and I realized it could be a very nasty competitor to CDMA in the QUALCOMM form]. He mumbled something about QUALCOMM having a few patents in the field or some such, which seemed to me more of a "no comment" answer than a real answer.

It wasn't many years later [maybe two] that he left QUALCOMM and went to Flarion where, what a surprise, he established OFDM.

I have no idea whether DV is much better than DO or just what the advantages are. It seems to me to be a good idea to run DO and see how it all goes for a year or three. Upgrading to newer CDMA technology such as DV doesn't seem to be a big project, involving unplugging old cards and inserting new, or maybe just mucking around with software now [for all I know] and uploading it from QUALCOMM servers.

I also have no idea what the advantages of W-CDMA/3GSM are meant to be over the proven CDMA2000 technology. So far, CDMA2000 seems to be the more successful way of providing 3G.


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To: Sawtooth who wrote (40562)5/1/2004 7:03:18 AM
From: John Carragher
   of 147155
some posters never quit! speaking of continue to build larger position i too had too add to my position late today.

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To: slacker711 who wrote (40544)5/1/2004 9:25:38 AM
From: Eric L
   of 147155

... now available on Vodafone KK

- Eric -

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To: Eric L who wrote (40566)5/1/2004 10:56:22 AM
From: slacker711
   of 147155
Looks like the V801SH went on sale just about the same time as the LG U8110. I have yet to see a thorough review, but the first comments all seem good. If the battery life is decent, this handset will be a very good seller....3's prices alone will insure that.

I am pretty sure that this handset has an Ericsson chipset, but I cant remember if we found a real confirmation of that fact.....did we have anything besides circumstantial evidence?


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To: slacker711 who wrote (40567)5/1/2004 4:09:50 PM
From: Eric L
   of 147155
The LG U8110 ...


<< Looks like the V801SH went on sale just about the same time as the LG U8110. ... I am pretty sure that this handset has an Ericsson chipset, but I cant remember if we found a real confirmation of that fact.....did we have anything besides circumstantial evidence? >>

We know that the Sharp uses the Ericsson EMP chipset by TI, but it's all circumstantial on the LG U8110, although EMP claims LG as a user. I doubt that particular LG model uses a Qualcomm MSM because it wasn't included in the Qualcomm brochure - 14 WCDMA (UMTS) PARTNERS AND COUNTING - prepared for the 3GSM World Congress and CTIA wireless 2004, although that brochure did show the LG U8150 (MSM6250) and the LG KW2000 which is a 2 chip WCDMA/CDMA2000 DBDM model for Korea.


- Eric -

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To: John Carragher who wrote (40565)5/2/2004 9:04:18 AM
From: quartersawyer
   of 147155
<continuing to build>-- from "Analysys: research:
3G to dominate European telecommunications by 2009

As the prospects for a New Zealand third-generation mobile phone network brighten, so, too are European telecommunciations operators moving in that direction.

A new report by telecommunications research group Analysys says that while there were only 600,000 3G subscribers in Europe at the end of 2003, there will be 27 million at the end of 2005 -- and by 2009, around 70 per cent (240 million) of all Western European mobile subscribers will have a 3G-enabled device.

The main inhibitor to 3G rollout in Europe has been the need for operators to recoup investments in interim (2.5G) platforms, most of which will become superannuated by 3G technology.

That's in part because Europe is moving from a 2G GSM platform to 3G on the W-CDMA protocol and operators cannot simply upgrade to make the transition.

The Analysys report -- "Western European Mobile Forecasts and Analysis 2004–2009" -- says there will be over 5 million Western European 3G subscribers by the end of this year, largely because of mass marketing efforts by operators like Telefónica Móviles and Vodafone.

In 2005, numbers are set to jump astronomically as more operators activate 3G and competition begins in earnest.

"Several Western European operators have launched 3G data services in 2004, increasing the likelihood that others like Orange, T-Mobile and TIM will be successful in entering the 3G mass market during the year," said Ariel Dajes, author of the report. "Recent market developments also make it more likely that handset manufacturers like Nokia will be able to deliver sufficient numbers of 3G handsets of the right quality in the second half of 2004."

In addition to operator decisions based on maximising GPRS network returns, according to the report, consumer uptake through this year has also been slowed by the lack of suitable handsets and the fact that existing 3G networks are restricted to major built-up areas.

Some of that is down to chicken and egg finger pointing, the report says.

"3G handset design has been widely criticised by operators with complaints that their size, appearance, and battery life will not be acceptable to customers who, over the last few years, have seen huge innovation in GSM handsets," added Dajes. "At the same time, equipment manufacturers have complained that issues surrounding handset availability are to do with networks not being ready to enable proper testing."

The report notes that network coverage issues are being addressed in some cases through the use of alternative technologies like EDGE. A number of operators such as Orange and TIM are deploying EDGE to enhance their GPRS networks and to complement their 3G W-CDMA coverage in rural and low traffic areas.

The report forecasts that revenue from GPRS subscribers will grow from EUR28 billion in 2004 and peak at EUR63 billion in 2007, before declining as customers move from GPRS to 3G.

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To: quartersawyer who wrote (40569)5/2/2004 9:26:07 AM
From: John Carragher
   of 147155
Let's hope these numbers for growth in eu. come through. This will be great for qcom royalties. yes?

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To: Ramsey Su who started this subject5/2/2004 9:34:44 AM
From: Jim Mullens
   of 147155
Nokia Chills on WiMAX


“Nokia has reneged on an earlier commitment to the nascent WiMax wireless metro-area market, citing concerns that the technology is not nearly ready yet and in danger of suffering from industry overhype.”

Nokia Chills on WiMax

Finnish infrastructure giant Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK - message board) has reneged on an earlier commitment to the nascent WiMax wireless metro-area market, citing concerns that the technology is not nearly ready yet and in danger of suffering from industry overhype.

WiMax -- or 802.16a revision d if you prefer -- is the wireless industry’s latest lovechild. Fans of WiMax claim that the technology -- which is initially intended to provide fixed wireless high-speed data services over distances of 30 miles or so -- could replace everything from 3G cellular networks to DSL and wireless LAN.

Nokia was a founder member of the WiMax Forum, an industry body aiming to promote and certify the compatibility and interoperability of WiMax-branded broadband wireless products employing the latest revisions of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. (IEEE)'s 802.16a standard.

Despite its early interest, the vendor chose not to renew its membership earlier this year, believing that the technology is no longer a core business focus. Nokia is now absent from the Forum’s membership list on its Website.
“We were involved at the beginning, but after analyzing the business case we are not actively involved today,” comments Seppo Aaltonen, director of Nokia’s wireless technology marketing division [ed. note: and the lost Marx Brother]. “It is more of a monitoring position. Our short-term priority is to get WiFi and 3G technologies working... WiMax is not mature enough at the moment to commit too much to it.”

Aaltonen states that Nokia will continue to follow WiMax “very carefully,” but is unconvinced by its short-term market potential.

“Right now it may be a little overhyped. We see it as quite far away. Even though it is exciting, we need to be realistic about it.”

Nokia’s viewpoint contrasts vividly with recent announcements from network rivals Alcatel SA (NYSE: ALA - message board; Paris: CGEP:PA) and Siemens AG (NYSE: SI - message board; Frankfurt: SIE). Both vendors last month outlined plans to move into the market in 2005, using silicon from Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC - message board). (See WiMax Gets Serious, Alcatel, Intel Team on WiMAX and Siemens Plans WiMAX Move.)

Nokia appears unlikely to take such a route. “We have no product statements to make,” says Aaltonen. “I can’t comment on who will work with whom.”

— Justin Springham, Senior Editor, Europe, Unstrung

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To: quartersawyer who wrote (40563)5/2/2004 2:12:28 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer
   of 147155
At a time when China is trying to restrict growth, it may be natural for some to believe that lower growth should also mean a delay in 3G implementation, regardless of which system or systems the country finally adopts. But I think they are ignoring a major event in 2008--the Olympics. China will have to improve its communication systems before that time, and wireless broadband seems to be the lowest cost alternative. Broadband applications will include the transmission of high resolution photos and video. Wireless broadband will also help reduce needless travel in major cities, relieving traffic congestion (as it has in the U.S. as well). Think about the Olympics and what it means for China, and you will have a hard time justifying the notion that 3G will be stalled in China.


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