|<Seems like a strange statement.>|
Dr Kan has a lot of outspoken contrarian appeal to the Communist leadership. He enjoys considering Westerners and domestic telecom business managers to be of insect mentality.
I'm checking on it, but pretty sure the four telecom operators we're relying upon in China are each more than 50% state-owned. The missive from much higher up delivered through MII that so freely enables the carriers to decide independently on the 3G tech of their choice... is strictly bogus. The government controls the management, the shares, the competition, the licenses, the spectrum.
China needs efficient 3G wireless for consumers and industry, so it's bound to happen. 2006? tdscdma-forum.org
(CCID Consulting is a significant source, and that's over $30 billion for 2006)
Kan himself has been outspoken about there being only another year or two for PAS, which implies there will be 3G licenses for Netcom and Telecom (maybe the Olympics will showcase TD?). It wouldn't surprise me a bit if the guy is positioning himself for a huge payoff by the industry. Here's some of his recent button-pushing:
China launch of 3G heading for disaster due to unreceptive market - researcher
BEIJING (AFX-ASIA) - Third generation (3G) mobile technology is likely to flop due to unripe market conditions in China, a leading local telecommunications researcher told government and business representatives at a conference in Beijing today.
"The child that is 3G is likely to die," Kan Kaili, a well-known telecoms researcher with the Beijing University of Post and Telecommunications pronounced at a conference on 3G and China's economy.
Billions of yuan have already been invested in 3G technology in China in the hope of tapping into the world's largest mobile phone market -- 269 mln subscribers by the end of 2003 -- when the wireless data-transfer technology is launched. It is yet unclear when 3G will be launched in China, as the government has yet to choose between competing standards.
Local media have reported that CCID Consulting Co Ltd, a research unit under the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) expects the amount of investment in 3G to reach 252 bln yuan, with 3G handset sales expected to reach 100 bln yuan and the total number of subscribers to exceed 400 mln by 2006.
"In the future, the launch of 3G will give a major boost to the development of the telecommunications industry, and increasing capital expenditure on 3G systems and equipment will be a trend from 2004 to 2007," Lu Guoying, a senior analyst with CCID was quoted as saying earlier.
"There's no demand for it (3G) and no applications," Kan said.
While there is little awareness of 3G among mobile phone users in China, investors are betting that demand will soar once the technology is put on the market, he said.
However, he sees this prospect as unlikely.
"If there's no demand now, you better not put it on the market," he said, arguing that 3G would go the same way as ISDN.
ISDN, an Internet service launched in the 90s, was quickly replaced by ADSL and has almost disappeared from the market, according to Kan.
He that the consumer base in China did not have as much potential for the technology as was predicted.
"China's social revolution is incomplete, we're not an industrialized country," he said, referring to the fact that the majority of China's population still resides in the countryside in poor conditions, and had no need for such sophisticated technology.
"Imagine if the empress Ci Xi had a 1,000 watt power generator," he joked, alluding to the 19th century ruler of China.
Turning to Nokia, Ericsson and Motorola representatives, whose companies have invested heavily in 3G, he added: "Keep your options (open)."
<are we to believe china wants to fall behind in wireless>
They definitely have an opportunity to do more with the technology than scowl at decadent gaming and video applications. You might be able to ask him directly... here's china.org's brief bio and e-mail address for him (but it's three years old):
About Dr. Kaili Kan
Dr. Kaili Kan is currently dean of the School of Business Management at Beijing University of Posts & Telecommunications (BUPT). For over a decade, Dr. Kan was in charge of the research, recommendation and formulation of China’s telecommunications policy and development strategies for the Ministry of Posts & Telecommunications (MPT) and later the Ministry of Information Industries (MII). Dr. Kan received his Ph.D. from Stanford University in 1984. Since then, he also served in many posts internationally in the telecommunication sector, including Pacific Bell, ChinaSat, the World Bank, as well as operating a consulting agency in the US. Dr. Kan’s current interest is focused on the research and development of China’s telecommunication policy and strategies and can be reached at email@example.com.
<The key issue is whether China will ever go for 3G.>
Only with the right Guanxi