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From: Bill Wolf3/23/2012 7:56:18 PM
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BRCM, QCOM, TXN to Benefit from Rising iPhone, iPad Numbers, Says Susquehanna
By Tiernan Ray

Susquehanna Investment Group semiconductor analyst Chris Caso today revised upward his estimate for Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone and iPad production based on his analysis of the chip supply chain for the devices.

Caso, who covers Broadcom (BRCM) and Qualcomm (QCOM), and rates both stocks “Positive,” writes that Apple this quarter will probably produce 36 million to 40 million iPhone units, up from a prior forecast for 32 million to 36.5 million, driven by “strong builds for the iPhone 4S.” He writes that his estimate is above a 30 million consensus estimate.

iPhone production may cool somewhat in Q2 as the company transitions to production of a forthcoming “iPhone 5,” writes Caso. His estimate of 28 million to 30 million units doesn’t yet include what may be additional volume of production from that iPhone 5 ramp, he writes.

For iPad, Caso sees production of 17 million to 19 million units, up from a prior forecast of 10 million to 14 million units, including both the new model and the now discounted iPad 2.

For all three chip vendors, “we believe these checks are positive to 1Q expectations with the potential for positive revisions to our 2Q forecast down the road,” writes Caso.

Fin

Copyright 2011 Dow Jones & Company

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To: engineer who wrote (110659)3/23/2012 9:08:13 PM
From: sd_cowboy
8 Recommendations   of 122573
 
Let's ignore the "myopic" & "fab guys" comment as the fact of the matter is engineer knows absolutely nothing about me.

I was commenting on two flavors of CPU's that will compete over the next 2 years, 28LP Krait & HKMG A-15. IMHO ARM designed A-15 targeted to be more upmarket while QCOM designed Krait to be more smartphone optimized. A-15 probably has a deeper pipeline, perhaps 17-18 stages while I'd think Krait is in the range of a 12-13 stage pipeline vs. Scorpian, which I think had a single digit pipeline.

I'd expect A-15 to clock higher than Krait and on an absolute basis probably post a somewhat higher CPU benchmark score at the same process node. I'd expect QCOM to "do it again" wrt making a better design with Krait having better "per megahertz" and "per milliwatt" performance.

Bottom line I'd expect Krait to easly win in the smartphone marget segment but, especially given the above process difference, have a tougher time in the larger screen, larger battery, more computing oriented tablet and notebook market segment where a more power efficient SoC has less of an impact on the overall product power curve. I'm going to leave it at that and not post further on this subject.

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To: sd_cowboy who wrote (110676)3/23/2012 10:41:19 PM
From: slacker711
3 Recommendations   of 122573
 
I was commenting on two flavors of CPU's that will compete over the next 2 years, 28LP Krait & HKMG A-15. IMHO ARM designed A-15 targeted to be more upmarket while QCOM designed Krait to be more smartphone optimized. A-15 probably has a deeper pipeline, perhaps 17-18 stages while I'd think Krait is in the range of a 12-13 stage pipeline vs. Scorpian, which I think had a single digit pipeline.

I'd expect A-15 to clock higher than Krait and on an absolute basis probably post a somewhat higher CPU benchmark score at the same process node.


That is precisely how I see it. I believe that Qualcomm itself has acknowledged that Krait wont quite match the A15 in performance but that Krait should have an advantage in power consumption. That should provide differentiation in smartphones but any power savings will be almost meaningless in most tablets. The display in the new iPad uses 7 watts at max brightness and that will swamp almost all of the other components.

I do think that Qualcomm will be more than competitive in tablets for at least the next year though. The dual-core Krait is ahead of the A15 based competition and the quad-core version of the chip will be out ahead of Tegra3 and any other likely quad-core A15 chips.

After that, we'll have to see what Qualcomm has up its sleeve. They cant stick with Krait for as long as they stuck with Scorpion though.

Slacker

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To: leochardonne who wrote (110673)3/23/2012 11:56:54 PM
From: Gansett
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Thanks Leo, I had not seen Trefis research before.

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To: slacker711 who wrote (110677)3/24/2012 12:27:04 AM
From: engineer
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thx slacker, was exactly my point in the first post that got hijacked by these fab type guys.

I see the state of the art A-15 getting alot more attention on pipelining and new deisgn techiques while hte Krait guys keep tlking about node shrink sizes.

Ok, so that gets you 2012....what are htey doing to get 2015?

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From: BDAZZ3/24/2012 2:08:24 AM
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Off topic: >>The Securities and Exchange Commission has reportedly set its sights on the often-mysterious world of high-frequency trading, questioning whether these sophisticated traders' cozy relationship with exchanges gives them an unfair advantage.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the SEC probe is zeroing in on the computer-driven trading platforms of exchanges, including BATS Global Markets, which ironically is debuting as a public company on Friday just as the news breaks.
High-frequency trading firms, which tend to avoid the limelight, have come into focus in the wake of the May 2010 “flash crash,” which featured a brief 1,000-point plunge on the Dow after glitches in computer-trading systems. These traders use advanced and powerful computer systems to rapidly execute trades, often ahead of most other investors.
SEC investigators are probing whether high-frequency trading firms “collude” to limit competition or manipulate markets, the paper reported, adding that regulators have requested more information from a number of high-speed firms and their communications with exchanges.
The SEC is investigating the trading activities of Chicago-based Getco and Tradebot Systems, each of which have invested in BATS, the Journal reported.
At the same time, the SEC is probing communications between rapid-fire firms and Jersey City, N.J.-based Direct Edge Holdings, the paper said.
The report comes at an awful time for BATS, which priced its IPO at the low end of expectations Thursday night and is poised to begin trading on Friday.
While not nearly as well known as its larger peers, the Lenexa, Kan.-based company accounts for about 11% of average daily volume, trailing only exchanges operated by NYSE Euronext (NYX: 29.57, -0.24, -0.81%) and Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ: 26.64, -0.24, -0.89%).<<

foxbusiness.com

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To: BDAZZ who wrote (110680)3/24/2012 11:01:02 AM
From: Jim Mullens
1 Recommendation   of 122573
 
BAZZ, re: SEC / HFT…………………………..

According to The Wall Street Journal, the SEC probe is zeroing in on the computer-driven trading platforms of exchanges, including BATS Global Markets, which ironically is debuting as a public company on Friday just as the news breaks.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Interesting / more bad timing for BATS. Heard that BATS was responsible for yesterdays Apple plunge from ~$600 to ~$540 (10%), halting trading.

I really don't understand how one of the minor exchanges can have such a great impact on the overall market for a heavily traded equity such as Apple. Something is terribly wrong here. One would think **all** orders would have to be matched / cleared in one central exchange such as the NASDAQ for their listed companies. How can all this side-trading (back room deals / manipulators ) be considered official??? With stuff like this going on, I don't know why anyone would place a "market order", or why that should even be permitted knowing some high speed computer away from the main exchange could somehow drop the price 10% for a microsecond and execute bogus trades. This Apple action today appears very similar to the May 2010 “Flash Crash”, down sharply in a few seconds, only on a much smaller scale.

I just Googled “Flash Crash” and got this interesting Wikipedia article … link below. Just now skimmed it but find it quite telling and controversial as there appears to be no consensus as to who’s at fault / who the good / bad guys are???????????

en.wikipedia.org

Before we get a head slap from “ the boss (Gibbs) ”, maybe the other SI QCOM thread is a better place for continued discussion

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To: engineer who wrote (110679)3/24/2012 11:09:41 AM
From: sd_cowboy
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"what are htey doing to get 2015?"

That would be with the V8 instruction set.

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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (110681)3/24/2012 11:51:34 AM
From: Elroy
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Hi Jim, question for you on this website you showed me

pdadb.net

I'm interested in which Samsung LTE phones have Samsung basebands (and therefore SIMO transceivers) and which Samsung LTE phones have QCOM chipsets (and thus zero SIMO transceivers).

If I search for Samsung phones and LTE, 12 models come up. They list a CPU component, and the makers are Nvidia Tegra, Qualcomm Snapdragon, and/or the Samsung Xynos.

Are those chips the same as baseband chips? I don't think so because I don't think nVidia makes baseband chips. Is the maker of the baseband chip included in the output information?

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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (110681)3/24/2012 12:02:33 PM
From: BDAZZ
1 Recommendation   of 122573
 
Thanks for the Wiki link. A common acknowledgement in every scenario is that HFT makes the market vulnerable, yet they are still here. Put the cost of a sell or cover at $100 if it's within an hour of the buy.

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