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To: waitwatchwander who wrote (109774)2/25/2012 9:43:21 AM
From: phatbstrd
3 Recommendations   of 147207
Why Qualcomm’s Snapdragon S4 has the competition on the defensive
Sorry if already posted...

After months of teasing and hinting, Qualcomm has finally taken the wraps off of its new Snapdragon S4 mobile system-on-a-chip (SoC). The MSM8960, featuring the Krait core, is the first ARM chip in the company’s stable of next generation mobile parts, and it’s got some official benchmark numbers that are sure to impress. Perhaps most importantly, the new Snapdragon is pulling off these striking feats of computational might with just two cores as other manufacturers are working toward four.
Qualcomm, unlike most ARM chip makers, does not license the architecture for its application processors directly from ARM Holdings. Instead, it designs its own cores in-house and simply licenses the ARM instruction set. At the most basic level, Qualcomm’s Krait core is more advanced than Cortex-A9, the current standard from ARM, and it may even best the next-generation Cortex-A15 core.

Snapdragon S4 is going to be significant the next time you’re shopping for a device for several reasons, not least among them the raw speed. With two 1.5GHz Krait cores, Qualcomm’s new part was able to thoroughly thrash dual-core ARM chips in most tests, and even beat Nvidia’s Tegra 3 quad-core SoC in benchmarks that don’t rely heavily on multi-core optimization. A device running on this new breed of Snapdragon will have much more power to play with and lower power consumption thanks to a 28nm manufacturing process. Other ARM SoCs are still at 40nm.

Snapdragon S4 is also going to support a wide array of hardware on the chip itself. It has always been Qualcomm’s policy to integrate the cellular modem with the SoC, whereas other manufacturers rely on external components for that. The S4 will support on-die LTE, HSPA+, and CDMA radios — making it the first ever SoC to integrate LTE radio, and also the first 28nm LTE part. That means longer lasting, thinner, lighter devices.

Video and gaming performance might be the one stumbling block for the first run of S4 chips. Qualcomm opted not to wait for the Adreno 3xx GPUs to be ready for use, so the MSM8960 uses the Adreno 225, which is close in performance to other GPUs currently on the market. The 225 does add dual-channel video memory and a unified shader architecture, but the real magic will come when future S4 chips ship with Adreno 305.

Real world battery life claims will have to wait to be settled as the development platform Qualcomm is handing out is not tuned for battery performance. Each manufacturer thinks it’s on the right track, though. Snapdragons are capable of dynamically altering the clock speed of each core individually to respond to system demands. Qualcomm says this leads to better battery life in most situations. Nvidia says its system of switching cores completely off when not needed, and running a low-power companion core is better.

If anything is made clear by these first Snapdragon S4 tests, it’s that you should not only be concerned with the number of cores. That makes little more sense than the gigahertz race years ago. A chip’s features and architecture can make the user experience better regardless of the number of cores. Nvidia might have thought getting to quad-core first assured it victory, but Qualcomm’s Krait core is more similar to the next generation Cortex-A15 than it is to Tegra’s A9. TI and Samsung are expected to launch dual-core Cortex-A15 SoCs this year, but Qualcomm is also planning to ramp up to a quad-core Krait this year.

The first dual-core Snapdragon S4 devices will be debuted at Mobile World Congress in just a few days, among them the rumored Asus PadFone. You will be able to get phones and tablets running the S4 in your hot little hands in the first half of 2012.

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From: leochardonne2/25/2012 10:47:52 AM
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Qualcomm Shipped Most Smartphone and Tablet GPUs in 2011 Subject: Mobile | February 25, 2012 - 09:31 AM | Tim Verry
Tagged: ti, qualcomm, nvidia, mobile gpu, jpr, apple
The researchers over at Jon Peddie Research pushed out their results yesterday for shipments of mobile GPUs in SoC (system on a chip) platforms, and they found some interesting results. The article covers the number of shipments by the major players in the mobile device GPU space and uses those numbers to estimate the amount of market share each of the companies has using an average of all the four quarter shipment numbers. Further, they found that from Q1 2011 to Q4 2011, the number of mobile device GPUs shipped by all manufacturers had a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 18%. That's a fairly impressive growth rate that shows the smartphone and tablet hardware market is continuing to steadily grow.

In terms of market share, at the end of 2011 Qualcomm was leading the pack with 31.4%, and the only other manufacturer to come close to that number was Apple with 22.7%. The little Adreno GPU by Qualcomm was obviously a popular choice last year!

To make things even more interesting, they note that although Qualcomm has the highest shipment rates, it was Samsung who enjoyed the highest CAGR with a 39% growth rate (bringing them up from 9.2% in Q1 to 14.9% in Q4). Apple then followed behind Samsung's numbers with 26% CAGR. Finally, Qualcomm had the lowest percentage growth rate but maintained the highest number of shipments.

The table below shows off the relative market share for the major SoC mobile device manufacturers, as provided by Jon Peddie Research.

Market Share Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 2011 Apple 22.2% 21.4% 18.7% 27.1% 22.7% NVIDIA 2.8% 3.6% 4.1% 1.7% 3.0% Qualcomm 31.6% 32.6% 31.6% 30.2% 31.4% Samsung 9.2% 13.9% 15.9% 14.9% 13.8% TI 20.6% 16.2% 15.9% 16.2% 17.0% Others 13.4% 12.2% 13.8% 9.9% 12.1%

They further state that the mobile GPU war is really heating up, especially between Samsung, Apple, and Qualcomm, and I tend to agree. This area of the technology market is seeing some very impressive growth and is really booming as mobile GPU SoCs are continuously released and they are getting more powerful each iteration. It is an area that has a lot of competition and is growing rapidly, much like desktop computers did 10 to 20 years ago when personal computers really started to be affordable and powerful enough to take over the world (well, market share wise).

Another interesting point about the marketshare results in that of NVIDIA's shipments. With all the marketing behind the Tegra SoC and its popularity in high end smartphones and tablets, I was under the impression that they had a lot more marketshare than they do such that when I first saw the JPR chart, I did a double take and had to be sure I read them correctly! It will be interesting to see how they do this year and whether they will start to see increased growth.

It will be interesting to see if Samsung can catch up to Qualcomm and whether or nor Qualcomm will still be the heavyweight champion by 2012. Nvidia is still just breaking into this market but they have a very powerful GPU, so it will be interesting to see just how much they manage to grow this year. What are your thoughts on these numbers? How do you think things will unfold this year? Let us know in the comments below!

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From: leochardonne2/25/2012 10:55:38 AM
3 Recommendations   of 147207
Top hedge-fund favorites list : Apple Inc. /quotes/zigman/68270 /quotes/nls/aapl AAPL -0.08%is still the No. 1 favorite with fund managers, followed by Google Inc. /quotes/zigman/93888 /quotes/nls/goog GOOG 0.01%, Microsoft /quotes/zigman/20493 /quotes/nls/msft MSFT -0.13%, J.P. Morgan Chase /quotes/zigman/272085 /quotes/nls/jpm JPM -0.16%and Qualcomm /quotes/zigman/77257 /quotes/nls/qcom QCOM -0.22%.

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To: leochardonne who wrote (109830)2/25/2012 12:27:53 PM
From: Jim Mullens
   of 147207
Leo, re: Trefis / QCOM model now shows a $67.50 price (link below)……………..

The Trefis team of MIT engineers is gradually beginning to see the light, but still has quite a way to go.

An SI word search show their price target at $53 about a year ago. FWIW, a post of mine at that time also shown below.


Mobile Device Chipsets constitute 41% of the Trefis price estimate for Qualcomm's stock.Mobile Device Royalties constitute 37% of the Trefis price estimate for Qualcomm's stock. POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Qualcomm's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Qualcomm:

Mobile Device Chipsets

Qualcomm Chipset Pricing: We currently forecast that Qualcomm's chipsets pricing will continue to decline from $16 in 2010 to $15 by the end of Trefis forecast period, as higher priced smartphone chipsets like Snapdragon should support the steep decline. However, the pricing declined at a steep rate from $18 in 2009 to an expected $16 in 2010. There could be a downside of 10% to the Trefis price estimate if Qualcomm's chipsets pricing declines at a faster rate market share to reach $12 by the end of Trefis forecast period. On the other hand, there could be an upside of 3% to Trefis price estimate if higher priced chipsets helps Qualcomm maintain its chipsets prices at around $16.

Qualcomm Chipset Market Share: We currently forecast Qualcomm's chipset market share to decline from 66% in 2010 to nearly 60% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. Qualcomm has seen higher competition from Texas Instrument, Freescale and Broadcom in this market. However, Qualcomm has aggressive plans to tap emerging markets like China and India for 3G rollout. Also, it it is the first player to come out with a multimode chipset for LTE technology. There could be an upside of 7% to the Trefis price estimate if it is able to maintain its market share over the Trefis forecast period.

Mobile Device Royalties

Royalty Rate: We currently forecast that Qualcomm's royalty rates for mobile devices will continue to decline from 3.2% in 2010 to 2.6% by the end of Trefis forecast period. Royalty rates have come under pressure as Qualcomm expands its business to emerging markets, which command lower rates. Another reason for future declines in royalty rate is Qualcomm's not so strong patent position in 4G technology as compared to 3G. There could be a downside of 5% to the Trefis price estimate if Qualcomm's royalty rate declines at a faster rate to reach 2.2 % by the end of Trefis forecast period. On the other hand, there could be an upside of more than 10% to Trefis price estimate if it is able to maintain its royalty rates over the Trefis forecast period. For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Qualcomm at the top of the page.

Xxxxxxxxxx old post xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


To: LEIGH7 who wrote ( 100314)3/6/2011 11:01:00 AM

From: Jim Mullens4 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 109841

Leigh, re: TREFIS $53 QCOM Target

53.00 price target. What's wrong with them?

TREFIS apparently uses the DCF (discounted cash flow) method to develop their targets. They plug in some numbers into their DCF model and numbers magically appear. I prefer to be able to see all the calculations laid out in front of me in order to understand how the valuation was determined. I don’t believe TREFIS provides that detail.

Perhaps not as sophisticated or academically appreciated, this simpleton approach works for me.

1) QCOM’s FY11 EPS guidance ($2.91 - $3.05) – MP $2.98
………Analyst consensus $3.06

2) Estimate CAGR (compound annual growth rate) for the next 5 years- 12%, 15%, etc

3) Multiple the resultant EPS by an estimated PE ratio / PEG ratio, i.e.

………..1.0 PEG w/ 15% EPS CAGR = 15 PE

………..1.50 PEG w/ 15% EPS CAGR = 22.5 PE

4) Per Yahoo, the market is currently valuing QCOM with a PE of 19.23 (on FY11 consensus EPS), with next 5 years growth rate of 18%, and a resulting PEG of 1.07




………….EPS-……………$/sh@ 15PE……@19PE
…………@15% CAGR
Fy12…..$3.52……………$52.80………….$ 66.88
Fy13…..$4.05……………$60.75………….$ 77.00
Fy14…..$4.65……………$69.75………….$ 88.35

Lots can happen in the next 5 years, but the above is a simplistic way of looking at QCOM’s prospects w/o the fancy interactive charts.


Per Yahoo today 2/26/2012

Analysis EPS estimates (proforma ) and Price Targets

EPS- avg
...+ FY11...$3.06 (2/06/2011 consensus estimates)

…+ FY 11…$3.20................ (Q beat the consensus by 14 cents / 4.5%)
…+ FY 12…$3.75 yoy 17%
…+ FY 13…$4.14 yoy 10%

Long term growth... 15.9%

Price Targets

…+ Mean Target:….. $69.41
…+ Median Target:…$71.00
…+ High Target:….....$85.00
…+ Low Target:……..$34.00

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From: Bill Wolf2/25/2012 12:51:28 PM
2 Recommendations   of 147207
CNBC is reporting that Sprint and regional carrier MetroPCS were literally hours from announcing an $8 billion merger when Sprint's executive board rejected it — even after it had CEO Dan Hesse's sign-off.

The circumstances of the deal are unclear, but the two companies had apparently been hammering it out for "months," says CNBC's David Faber. Considering the complexity of Sprint's spectrum situation as it makes the transition to LTE, Clearwire's financial troubles, and LightSquared's woes, it stands to reason that the company would be looking at other alternatives. That said, much of MetroPCS's spectrum lies in the AWS band, which would've made integration considerably more difficult; Sprint doesn't currently use AWS.

MetroPCS just reported earnings this week and registered 9.35 million subscribers as of the end of Q4; combined with Sprint's 55 million, the new company would still fall well short of juggernauts AT&T and Verizon but likely would've put T-Mobile in an even more precarious and fragile position than it is today.

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From: Bill Wolf2/25/2012 1:24:05 PM
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Mobile World Congress Preview: 10 Hot Devices

Eric Zeman 02/25/2012 As this year's biggest smartphone-related conference nears kickoff, check out 10 cool pieces of hardware that we're eager to see at Mobile World Congress.

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From: Bill Wolf2/25/2012 1:27:35 PM
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Mobile World Congress: from nappy change alerts to waterproof phones Baby pyjamas that send you an email when a nappy needs changing are among the innovations to be unveiled in Barcelona

The Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Photograph: Josep Lago/AFP/Getty Images

Duran Duran, Stephen Fry and Microsoft's Steve Ballmer have all made guest appearances, and Carphone Warehouse founder Charles Dunstone likes to berth his yacht in the harbour for the week. The annual Mobile World Congress, which opens in Barcelona tomorrow, is the nearest the telephone industry comes to a Cannes film festival.

This year there will be 60,000 delegates and 1,400 exhibitors, but the real business is done on the sidelines. Chief executives meet to negotiate deals worth billions of pounds. Barcelona is where the mobile operators, from Vodafone to Deutsche Telekom, go shopping – for equipment to run their networks and phones to sell their customers.

Top of their agenda will be working out how to make money from the flood of internet traffic being generated by the explosion of smartphone sales in plugged-in countries such as the UK.

"Mobile phone networks were not designed to carry large amounts of data," says Mark Newman of analysts Informa Telecoms & Media. "Operators are trying to find solutions for a problem they didn't know they would have five years ago, before the iPhone."

Although its impact continues to reverberate, Apple has as usual declined to attend: it's so successful it doesn't need to. But Google, Samsung, Nokia and Microsoft will all be there. Among the many innovations on show, here are five that catch the eye.

Windows 8On Wednesday, Microsoft will unveil a test version of Windows 8. This is the software firm's make-or-break chance to catch up with Apple and Google in the battle to control the computers of the future, be they smartphones, tablets or humble PCs. A radical redesign of the three-year-old Windows 7, it has been described as Microsoft's most important software release since the original Windows 1.0 in 1985, when the interface switched from a blinking cursor on a black background to graphics.

Windows 8 will work with touch screens and its look has been inspired by Microsoft's mobile operating system Windows Phone, already installed on the latest Nokia and HTC handsets. It will work on the chips made by UK firm ARM Holdings, which are inside practically every tablet made today.

Connected carsMobile network operators are now thinking beyond phones to other products. In-car computers, previously reserved for expensive brands such as Audi and BMW, are finding their way into more affordable vehicles. Ford, Toyota, General Motors and Volvo are among the manufacturers now equipping cars with software that can report engine faults, alert a breakdown service, navigate around traffic jams and relay internet radio stations.

In Barcelona, Volvo and Ericsson will demonstrate an electric car fitted with a mobile internet connection. The driver can recharge using any power point, even at a friend's house – but the technology will enable the car's electricity meter to send the bill to the vehicle's owner.

Internet mobile messagingFans of BlackBerry Messenger or Apple's iMessage prefer these apps to sending traditional SMS text messages because they are cheaper. These are called "over the top" services, because they use the internet to largely bypass the mobile phone network. So far mobile operators have shied away from offering similar services, unwilling to cannibalise their voice and text profits.

This year, Europe's big five operators will change tack, unveiling a shared over-the-top service that will be pre-loaded into phones. But the technology will not carry voice calls, just messages, suggesting operators are some way from embracing the web with open arms.

Waterproof phonesJapanese electronics firm Fujitsu will make its debut in the already crowded European smartphone market with a pragmatic concept – the waterproof handset. In Japan this feature is already commonplace, but in Europe water damage is one of the biggest causes of insurance claims for smartphones.

Motorola is already using Aridion, made by Oxfordshire company P2i, a nano-coating that bonds with the surface of external and internal components and does not peel or scratch off. Instead of a coating, Fujitsu's handsets have a waterproof seal on the battery case, and resist leakage at a depth of up to 1.5m, which should make them at least loo-proof.

Smart baby pyjamasThe news that your baby's nappy needs changing eventually reaches your nose, but that information could now arrive more quickly by text or email. Exmobaby will demonstrate a wearable baby monitor that can detect an infant's vital signs and relay them to phones, PCs and tablets. The sensors are hidden under layers of fabric, which the manufacturer says makes them virtually undetectable to human touch.

The washable pyjamas pick up humidity, movement, skin temperature and heart rate. They connect to the internet using low-power digital radio… and are, of course, rechargeable.

  • © 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.

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    To: phatbstrd who wrote (109834)2/25/2012 3:01:02 PM
    From: Maurice Winn
    2 Recommendations   of 147207
    Wow, Snapdragon with Krait at the core and only two cores at that. Score! They'll sell crores!! Talk about Year of the Dragon. This is going to go crazy: < Qualcomm has finally taken the wraps off of its new Snapdragon S4 mobile system-on-a-chip (SoC). The MSM8960, featuring the Krait core, is the first ARM chip in the company’s stable of next generation mobile parts, and it’s got some official benchmark numbers that are sure to impress. Perhaps most importantly, the new Snapdragon is pulling off these striking feats of computational might with just two cores as other manufacturers are working toward four. >

    With Microsoft buying Nokia*, and using the Snapdragon Krait, Apple will have to watch out.

    QCOM share price about to blow out.

    Sanjay certainly got Krait off to a good start. It's all his fault.


    * The rumour I'm just starting. Pass it on. "Microsoft is NOT buying Nokia's smartphone division" said Elop: It must be the whole thing in that case [though perhaps not the Valenki Knitgrrl gumboot division].

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    To: Jim Mullens who wrote (109837)2/25/2012 6:27:26 PM
    From: BDAZZ
    3 Recommendations   of 147207
    Trefis is useless..They might as well try to write an algorithm for the weather...could rain or might be sunny if the clouds go away and the sun comes out, could freeze if the earth moves away from the sun too much or could be hot if it goes in the other direction. We're from MIT but we still might be dumb, but not as dumb as the people publishing this Tripis.

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    To: Maurice Winn who wrote (109841)2/25/2012 6:33:21 PM
    From: BDAZZ
    2 Recommendations   of 147207
    >>Sanjay certainly got Krait off to a good start. It's all his fault. <<

    At Mot he didn't think too much of the other chips he worked on. Doubt if his attitude would have changed for Krait. Hope the newbies are more receptive.

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