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To: engineer who wrote (109543)2/14/2012 12:28:18 AM
From: Maurice Winn
3 Recommendations   of 122325
 
The "unlimited" 2GB-but-then-strangled plan for $30 means 2000MB for 3000c. So why don't they just charge 2c per MB and leave people to use what they like? And give people another option of 0.2c per MB off peak and 3c per MB peak [or whatever it takes to avoid congestion at any particular location - maybe 10c per MB at times].

Mqurice

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From: somerlondon2/14/2012 5:44:38 AM
1 Recommendation   of 122325
 
Cisco: mobile connections will hit 10 billion by 2016, helped by tablet boom
engadget.com

Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast Projects 18-Fold Growth in Global Mobile Internet Data Traffic From 2011 to 2016

Mobile Cloud Traffic to Account for 71 Percent, or 7.6 Exabytes per Month, of Total Mobile Data Traffic by 2016, Compared to 45 Percent, or 269 Petabytes per Month, in 2011

SAN JOSE, Calif. and LONDON – Feb. 14, 2012 – According to the Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2011 to 2016, worldwide mobile data traffic will increase 18-fold over the next five years, reaching 10.8 exabytes per month -- or an annual run rate of 130 exabytes -- by 2016.

The expected sharp increase in mobile traffic is due, in part, to a projected surge in the number of mobile Internet-connected devices, which will exceed the number of people on earth (2016 world population estimate of 7.3 billion; source: United Nations). During 2011-2016 Cisco anticipates that global mobile data traffic will outgrow global fixed data traffic by three times.
The forecast predicts an annual run rate of 130 exabytes of mobile data traffic, equivalent to:

- 33 billion DVDs.
- 4.3 quadrillion MP3 files (music/audio).
- 813 quadrillion short message service (SMS) text messages.

An exabyte is a unit of information or computer storage equal to 1 quintillion bytes.

This mobile data traffic increase represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78 percent spanning the forecast period. The incremental amount of traffic being added to the mobile Internet between 2015 and 2016 alone is approximately three times the estimated size of the entire mobile Internet in 2012. The following trends are driving these significant increases:

1. More Streamed Content: With the consumer expectations increasingly requiring on-demand or streamed content versus simply downloaded content, mobile cloud traffic will increase, growing 28-fold from 2011 to 2016, a CAGR of 95 percent.

2. More Mobile Connections: There will be more than 10 billion mobile Internet-connected devices in 2016, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules -- exceeding the world?s projected population at that time of 7.3 billion. (One M2M application is the use of wireless networks to update digital billboards. This allows advertisers to display different messages based on time of day or day-of-week and allows quick global changes for messages, such as pricing changes for gasoline).

3. Enhanced Computing of Devices: Mobile devices are becoming more powerful and thus
able to consume and generate more data traffic. Tablets are a prime example of this trend generating traffic levels that will grow 62-fold from 2011 to 2016 -- the highest growth rate of any device category tracked in the forecast. The amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets in 2016 (1 exabyte per month) will be four times the total amount of monthly global mobile data traffic in 2010 (237 petabytes per month).

4. Faster Mobile Speeds: Mobile network connection speed is a key enabler for mobile data traffic growth. More speed means more consumption, and Cisco projects mobile speeds (including 2G, 3G and 4G networks) to increase nine-fold from 2011 to 2016.

5. More Mobile Video: Mobile users want the best experiences they can have and that generally means mobile video, which will comprise 71 percent of all mobile data traffic by 2016.
The Cisco study also projects that 71 percent of all smartphones and tablets (1.6 billion) could be capable of connecting to an Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) mobile network by 2016. From a broader perspective, 39 percent of all global mobile devices (more than 4 billion), could be IPv6-capable by 2016.

Impact of Mobile Devices/Connections
- The increasing number of wireless devices and nodes accessing mobile networks worldwide is the primary contributor to traffic growth. By 2016, there will be more than 8 billion handheld or personal mobile-ready devices and nearly 2 billion machine-to-machine connections, such as GPS systems in cars, asset tracking systems in shipping and manufacturing sectors and medical applications for making patient records more readily available.
- Smartphones, laptops and other portable devices will drive about 90 percent of global mobile data traffic by 2016.
- M2M traffic will represent 5 percent of 2016 global mobile data traffic while residential broadband mobile gateways will account for the remaining 5 percent of global mobile data traffic.

Impact of Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
- To address the rise in demand for the mobile Internet, service providers are increasingly looking to offload traffic to fixed/Wi-Fi networks.
- In 2011, 11 percent, or 72 petabytes, per month of total mobile data traffic was offloaded. By 2016, 22 percent, or 3.1 exabytes, per month of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded.
- Without offloading, the 2011-2016 global mobile data traffic CAGR would be 84 percent
instead of 78 percent.
- Should all aspects of mobility be taken into consideration, such as cellular traffic, traffic
offloaded from cellular networks and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic generated from portable devices, the total amount of mobility traffic would be more than four times the Cisco Mobile VNI forecast?s 2016 cellular traffic level.
1. In 2011, the sum of cellular traffic; cellular offload traffic; and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic from portable devices totaled 11.5 exabytes per month:
- Cellular is 5.2 percent or 597 petabytes per month
- Cellular Offload is 0.6 percent or 72 petabytes per month
- Fixed/Wi-Fi is 94.2 percent or 10.9 exabytes per month
2. In 2011, fixed/Wi-Fi traffic was more than 18 times greater than cellular traffic.
3. In 2015, the sum of cellular traffic; cellular offload traffic; and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic
from portable devices totaled 44.1 exabytes per month:
- Cellular is 16 percent or 6.9 exabytes per month
- Cellular offload is four percent or 2.0 exabytes per month
- Fixed/Wi-Fi is 80 percent or 35.2 exabytes per month o In 2015, Fixed/Wi-Fi traffic will be more than five times greater than cellular traffic.

Key Regional Growth Projections
According to the updated forecast by Cisco, the following regions are experiencing the greatest growth.
- Middle East and Africa will have the highest regional mobile data traffic growth rate with a
CAGR of 104 percent, or 36-fold growth.
- Asia-Pacific will have an 84 percent CAGR, or 21-fold growth.
- Central and Eastern Europe will have an 83 percent CAGR, or 21-fold growth.
- Latin America will have a 79 percent CAGR, or 18-fold growth.
- North America will have a 75 percent CAGR, or 17-fold growth.
- Western Europe will have a 68 percent CAGR, or 14-fold growth.

Impact of Faster Global Mobile Network Connection Speeds
The average mobile connection speed doubled last year and is expected to increase nine-fold by 2016. Mobile connection speeds are a key factor in supporting and accommodating mobile data traffic growth.

Cisco Mobile VNI Forecast Methodology
The Cisco mobile VNI study relies upon independent analyst forecasts and real-world mobile data usage studies. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco?s own estimates for mobile application adoption, minutes of use and transmission speeds. Key enablers such as mobile broadband speed and device computing power are also factored into Cisco VNI projections and findings. A detailed methodology description is included in the complete report (see link below).

The results of the current forecast represent increased amounts of traffic for the years 2011 to 2015, reflecting faster-than-expected growth from the previous Cisco VNI mobile forecast released in February 2011. In last year?s study, 2011 mobile Internet traffic was forecast to grow at 131 percent. This year, actual mobile Internet growth 2011 was estimated to be 133 percent.

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (109546)2/14/2012 7:51:00 AM
From: waitwatchwander
   of 122325
 
Charging 2 cents per MB doesn't guarantee coverage of the fixed costs which is something you have ignored from the getgo. How do you incorporate the recovery of those costs into your scheme? If the answer is the cheap rate promotes enough usage then (ignoring the deficiencies of EDGE) that's not that much different than charging $30 for 2GB. No?

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To: FWS who wrote (109056)2/14/2012 9:26:49 AM
From: waitwatchwander
   of 122325
 
Here is another option for the utilization of some of the new fab. I assume they could build a matrix of MEMS to detect a variety of chemicals.

Title: MEMS gas sensor
Application Number: 20120032692

Assignee: Qualcomm MEMS Technologies, Inc.

Abstract: Systems and methods for sensing a chemical or gas species of interest are provided. In one aspect, a method of sensing a chemical includes determining a capacitance change between at least two layers in a MEMS device, the capacitance between the at least two layers indicative of a presence of one or more chemicals; and identifying the presence of the one or more chemicals based on a determined electrical response of the at least two layers and the determined capacitance change.

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To: waitwatchwander who wrote (109548)2/14/2012 9:57:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn
6 Recommendations   of 122325
 
2c per MB is way more than the fixed cost of producing those megabytes. < Charging 2 cents per MB doesn't guarantee coverage of the fixed costs > It's also more than the variable cost, such as having somebody check the bank account to see how much it has grown, and to download some of the money to their account.

Yes, $30 per month for 2GB is similar to 2c per MB [if the data is all used] but the crucial difference is that the 2GB are tied to the moon orbiting Earth = a fixed charge every orbit. I can't see why the moon orbiting Earth should determine that another payment should be made to the service provider. What if there were two moons? Which moon would they choose to match the payment to.

When buying toothpaste, petrol, milk, bananas, or rice, people don't pay on a monthly basis. They pay for what they get.

Nothing guarantees coverage of the fixed costs. The only way to cover any costs is to attract customers in sufficient numbers paying enough money. Charging fixed monthly amounts frightens people off, it doesn't attract them. If they want to spend just $30 a month, then they could limit their payments to that amount.

Mqurice

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To: engineer who wrote (108942)2/14/2012 10:13:03 AM
From: waitwatchwander
2 Recommendations   of 122325
 
You're right about a lot going on behind the scenes with the Mirasol video player. I've now had a chance to play with a variety of video sources and now suspect the issue with video stall may well be related to some sort of garbage collection procedure.

Almost all Mirasol video tends to stall about 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 minutes in. If one leaves it to resolve it's issues, it will studder in a failing restart situation for a minute or so and eventually start playing video again. It then runs for about another 30 or so seconds when it goes back into studder restart mode. Studder mode this time takes longer to resolve and when video does restart it runs for much less time before doing a slight studder. This can go on for a few iterations until it evenutally goes back into a more endurable studder mode.

Endurable studder modes are not endless but can take 2 or 3 minutes to resolve. The duration of whatever fix gets accomplished during this mode appears to have less and less durability but that might be more related to the video that needs to be digested rather than a steady deterioration of the amount of available resources that initiates the interupt procedure.

Halting video playback and moving the video position slider back about 10 seconds will restart the video immediately and allow it to run for another 45 seconds or so. If left alone the video player just stays in studder restart mode where it appears to decode about 10 seconds worth of video after which it gets interrupted and restarts decoding. The above cycle appears to be endless but it isn't. As previously noted, this mode appears to take a few solid minutes to become resolved.

I get the feeling it's all related to some sort of interrupt that is just not getting well enough resolved via the chosen actions. Memory garbage collection would fit into that scenario and be easily resolvable by the addition of extra video (?) memory. However, that might well be a line in the sand which has become non negotiable due to pricing.

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To: somerlondon who wrote (109547)2/14/2012 10:26:07 AM
From: Jim Mullens
1 Recommendation   of 122325
 
Somerlondon, re: CSCO forecast …………………….

Awesome metrics…………

Key snips>>>>>>>

This mobile data traffic increase represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78 percent spanning the forecast period.:

1. More Streamed Content: With the consumer expectations increasingly requiring on-demand or streamed content versus simply downloaded content, mobile cloud traffic will increase, growing 28-fold from 2011 to 2016, a CAGR of 95 percent.

2. More Mobile Connections: There will be more than 10 billion mobile Internet-connected devices in 2016, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules -- exceeding the world?s projected population at that time of 7.3 billion. (One M2M application is the use of wireless networks to update digital billboards. This allows advertisers to display different messages based on time of day or day-of-week and allows quick global changes for messages, such as pricing changes for gasoline).



Impact of Mobile Devices/Connections

- The increasing number of wireless devices and nodes accessing mobile networks worldwide is the primary contributor to traffic growth. By 2016, there will be more than 8 billion handheld or personal mobile-ready devices and nearly 2 billion machine-to-machine connections, such as GPS systems in cars, asset tracking systems in shipping and manufacturing sectors and medical applications for making patient records more readily available.

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (109550)2/14/2012 10:49:03 AM
From: waitwatchwander
1 Recommendation   of 122325
 
It's not the fixed cost of producing the 2MBs but the fixed cost of managing your account. I get charged $10 per month for the privilege of unlimited EDGE data. That involves the billing procedures of two parties. The retail services of my ISP and the wholesale provisions of the carrier.

The fixed cost (store, employees and logistics) of bananas, toothpaste, milk and rice is amortized across all goods sold within the store. That's a key reason for those kinds of goods having low margins. It is also expected that customers visiting those facilities create volume due to the variety of goods procured. I guess one could see data packects in that light but I'd be surprised if most folks consumed as much variety of content as they do with the staples in being fed food.

Petrol is a different and somewhat unique pricing story. You are right that it does appear to fit well into your game. The fixed costs there are being amortized across volume consumed at each location which is much like the fixed billing cost of each wireless data provider being covered by its total Bit'n'Byte volume. It's all just a matter of mindset, isn't it.

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To: waitwatchwander who wrote (109553)2/14/2012 10:54:03 AM
From: slacker711
2 Recommendations   of 122325
 

I would also note that gasoline pricing would be very different if oil companies subsidized your car purchase.

Slacker

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From: Bill Wolf2/14/2012 11:26:03 AM
   of 122325
 
An LTE-Capable iPad Paves the Way for the 4G iPhone
Published on February 14, 2012
by Ina Fried

If, as is expected, the next iPad adds support for faster LTE networks, it could give Apple the experience it needs to add similar capabilities into its flagship iPhone.

The Wall Street Journal says that the iPad that debuts next month will support LTE, the next-generation network technology being used by both Verizon and, more recently, AT&T.

Apple has traditionally eschewed early support for faster networks, instead preferring to let such technologies mature before adding them into the iPhone. But adding a new network technology first to the iPad makes a lot of sense.

First, Apple’s tablet packs a much larger battery than its phones, meaning that even if the LTE radio chips are still a bit more power-hungry than past cellular modems, it shouldn’t dramatically hurt battery life.

Second, the iPad isn’t a phone, meaning that Apple can work on 4G data without having to worry about things like call management and shifting calls.

Finally, Apple can afford to have its iPad support cellular networks that aren’t fully deployed. After all, many of its sales are still of the Wi-Fi only variety.

With the phone, Apple really wants any technology it supports to be widely usable. Why take a cost, size and battery hit, for example, if many of the world’s carriers don’t yet have LTE networks on which to run?

But, after getting a strong start in the U.S., LTE is rapidly gaining steam globally. Sprint, for example, plans to add an LTE network later this year, and many global carriers are also adding LTE support.


allthingsd.com

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