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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (150260)2/8/2002 2:48:59 PM
From: NOW
   of 426802
 
heinz: you have a count for HGMCY here?

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To: yard_man who wrote (150273)2/8/2002 2:50:17 PM
From: NOW
   of 426802
 
why is all the trash like COF and krb floating today: a selling oportunity gift from the gods?
I dont have that much good fortune....

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To: yard_man who wrote (150273)2/8/2002 2:56:01 PM
From: NOW
   of 426802
 
shorted HI

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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (150256)2/8/2002 3:01:18 PM
From: pater tenebrarum
   of 426802
 
Terry,

don't forget: in the early 30's, money supply was inflated vigorously as well. it didn't help because of changing liquidity preferences. it is NOT the central banks that determine whether we get deflation or inflation: it is the social mood that is the decisive factor. it is very important that one keep this in mind: a private sector debt overhang CAN'T be inflated away just like that. it's easier with government debt. in theory of course, the Fed can monetize whatever it wants, even bad loans belonging to the private sector. but doing so would be equally destructive, as destroying the value of money doesn't create wealth. also, the liquidation of the malinvestments that have accumulated during the false boom must be allowed to proceed. otherwise worthy enterprises will be in danger of failing along with their less worthy peers, and it will be all the more difficult for recovery to take hold.

regarding gold, you may be right: it's possible that it actually signals reflation expectations. but otoh, it may well be rising due to something entirely different:namely loss of confidence in the system. gold generally does well in deflationary eras because of this. i have frequently mentioned in the past that studies show that gold has historically been a better deflation than inflation hedge. aside from that, there is the special circumstance of forward selling supply having dried up completely, giving way to covering of hedges instead. this removes several 100 tons of supply per annum, quite significant considering the size of the market.

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (150220)2/8/2002 3:05:27 PM
From: Earlie
   of 426802
 
Heinz:

Many thanks for this one Heinz. I had heard rumours that the Japanese banks were taking on serious additional levels of risk to try to lever their way out of the soup, but this is simply mad.

Best, Earlie

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (150278)2/8/2002 3:05:33 PM
From: NOW
   of 426802
 
where would we be without sanity like this..?

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To: Earlie who wrote (150279)2/8/2002 3:06:33 PM
From: NOW
   of 426802
 
well, if you are going down hard, why not go down reeaaally hard....

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To: Lucretius who started this subject2/8/2002 3:11:14 PM
From: KeepItSimple
   of 426802
 
Just sold all my Feb 40 BRCM poots for a quick 110% gain. should have sold them yesterday and it would have been 140%, but expiration is getting a little too close for my tastes- a 3 point swing and those suckers would be worth zero!

Of course, now broadcom will tank like a lead brick. :(

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To: LLCF who wrote (150263)2/8/2002 3:11:48 PM
From: pater tenebrarum
   of 426802
 
LOL! you could actually work it out with the exchange ratio of 0.53 ABX shares per HM share...:)

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To: LLCF who wrote (150263)2/8/2002 3:13:14 PM
From: NOW
   of 426802
 
not so easy. my lawyer will be in contact with you...lol
Anyone like BAC here (short that is)?

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