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 Technology Stocks | ADI: The SHARCs are circling!


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To: shane forbes who wrote (916)5/20/1998 7:42:00 PM
From: Tom Caruthers
   of 2882
 
NEVER, NEVER underestimate mass insider selling.

One or two sells, not concerned. Mass selling is a different story.
I was worried about this when insiders filed their 144's in March.
I would've missed out on the run to $38, but that should've been a signal to sell whole hog. I am disappointed with mgmt that they misguided investors in last quarter's release, but then I guess that's why they include the legalese "these are forward looking statements...etc."

Don't worry folks...Remember that ADI is in a solid position with a lot of things in the works. It may take a little longer than once thought, but things will turn around.

I will be looking to add back to my position what I had previously sold off. Unfortunately, I didn't sell enough :(

Good Luck all.

Tom

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To: Tom Caruthers who wrote (920)5/20/1998 8:15:00 PM
From: shane forbes
   of 2882
 
I agree NEVER is absolutely right. The only thing to keep in mind is that there was mass insider selling in lots of stocks around March. It was incredible.

What that really meant was to dump all stocks!

Also the other thing I keep tabs on is how the selling compared to the selling episodes in the past. Is it lower than average? higher? trend etc etc...

Shane (like you said this is still a solid company. As you are well aware it has sold off 15-20% in the past - so even though the last couple of weeks were bad, invariably the stock will fall a bit more, then consolidate for a few months and get back up. We should see the 40s pretty easily within the next 12-15 months.)

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (913)5/20/1998 9:01:00 PM
From: Doug (Htfd,CT)
   of 2882
 
Ramsey, though ~10MM shares traded, the float is closer to 160MM, so over 90% of the shares stayed put. It clearly was a sell-off, though.

It now is closer to 25x trailing earnings, which is its approximately the growth rate forecast in the Press Release. This may merely be a rationalization of the price of an inflated tech stock. 35 times trailing earnings used to be a lot to pay for a semiconductor manufacturer. Maybe that is so again.

What this suggests to me is that the market may be listening to Warren Buffet's hints and may have similar treatment for other good but high priced companies whose earnings are disappointing.

Doug (no position in ADI)

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To: Doug (Htfd,CT) who wrote (922)5/21/1998 9:05:00 AM
From: pat pasquale
   of 2882
 
Doug; my first time here,so my ?

is I was watching ADI and TXN as main players in the DSP
field and since ADI missed big what do u think about TXN's #s

also any idea what the 52 week low was and when it was reached

thanks

pp

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To: pat pasquale who wrote (923)5/21/1998 4:55:00 PM
From: Snowshoe
   of 2882
 
From Briefing.com (5/21/98):

Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) --UPDATE-- AG Edwards upgrades analog chip maker from "maintain" to "accumulate" based on recent price weakness.....

Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) analog chip maker has announced plans to buyback up to 4 mln shares over the next 12 months; stock has been under pressure after company missed earnings expectations with its Q2 results and gave indications that Q3 would be flat with Q2.....


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To: pat pasquale who wrote (923)5/21/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: Doug (Htfd,CT)
   of 2882
 
pat, welcome. George Gilder shares your attraction to ADI and TXN, because of their skills in DSP's. See his series of articles at gildertech.com  Both continue to be featured in his Gilder Technology Report, a highly respected (but not cheap) monthly newsletter of ascendant technologies in the Age of the Telecosm.

ADI is mentioned in GTR issues II: 3, 7, 12 and III: 2, 4
The first two are now available free at the above URL. The later 3 issues will become available about 6 months after pub date. Or you can subscribe for a little under $300/year for twelve issues.

Personally, I'm not an authority on either ADI or TXN, but reading this entire thread and the thread on TXN at Subject 2949 will help you catch up with those who are. I do think that TXN's past history making electronics useful, simple to use and portable will serve it well in the coming Telecosm era of hand-held, wireless consumer communications/computing devices that utilize IP and embedded systems.

For a quick snapshot of the 52-week low and other basic data, I recommend Yahoo! Finance Profile, which is available free for most any listed stock. ADI is at biz.yahoo.com 
TXN is at biz.yahoo.com  Those links will also include links to a news stack, SEC filings, earnings and the Yahoo! discussion board on each issue.

Doug (no position in ADI or TXN)

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To: Doug (Htfd,CT) who wrote (925)5/22/1998 1:00:00 AM
From: pat pasquale
   of 2882
 
Doug; my man; thanks for

you time and ideas...the threads on the stock info is very
helpful....

good trading and enjoy the holiday weekend

pp

NYC..

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To: pat pasquale who wrote (926)5/25/1998 11:39:00 AM
From: Doug
   of 2882
 
P.P: With revenue/income in decline and an admission of a flat Q ahead, is it not likely that ADI will drift lower till the report card for the next Q is out.?

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To: Doug who wrote (927)5/25/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: Meghan Richards
   of 2882
 
<<
P.P: With revenue/income in decline and an admission of a flat Q
ahead, is it not likely that ADI will drift lower till the report
card for the next Q is out.?
>>

You lost me here Doug.

ADI released poor earnings and a warning for the next two quarters.

Personally I don't see it drifting "higher" until they issue
a quarterly report with an upward earnings 'surprise'.

Let's face it, the prior quarterly release was not exactly rosey
from an earnings prospective, but it did talk up a good story in
terms of future prospects. Now this story seems to be recanted.
It will take awhile before institutional investors 'drift' back.
Their trust has been damaged.

If the quarterly report is any indication, it may be 1Q 1999 before
we see an earnings surprise. Current holders could well see
themselves invested in a 9-month dead-money situation.

IBD's Relative Strength for ADI = 16 [i.e. 84% of all other publicly
traded securities have outperformed ADI in the last year]. This is
far from a momentum play. From a technical vantage point, ADI is
showing massive signs of distribution. A purchase at this point
would be an attempt to bottom fish [e.g. catch a falling knife].
I don't see any reason to rush out and buy this security at this
point in time. There should be ample opportunity in the next 9
months to pick up ADI at a lower level. It may be wise to wait and
see how well this security holds up when it tests the $24/share
support level. Until there is verification that this support level
will hold, I intend to stay away.

As an alternative, a conservative way to play this security would
be to purchase it as it bounces off the support level near $24-1/4
and place a stop-sell order at 23-7/8. Such a strategy would
reduce the risk of owning this security. It does not dampen the
'dead-money' holding period however.

Meghan.

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To: Meghan Richards who wrote (928)5/25/1998 3:48:00 PM
From: Doug
   of 2882
 
M.R: Thx for your valuation. I believe ADI had forecasted Q3 as flat and Q4 slightly better. Based on that, I felt the likely price scenario would show a downward drift perhaps to the upper teens by Aug. Thereafter it would base and move up in anticipation of better days ahead.

Your projection adds an extra Q to that basing time frame. You may well be right. Traditionally however, prices rise on anticipation of performance.

If the DSP mkt is flat, the market for Communication ASICS and PLD's must also be quite similar. However, VLSI and ALTR who are main players in those domains expect to see better times during the 2nd half of this year. That is intriguing.!

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